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Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-17-2005 02:53 PM

re: wilma as cat'5

I agree, being the scientist as I am, I reluctant to say it...but I have occasionally touted that this years 3 *A' storms will all have been Cat'5 at some point - a truly astounding season.

There is plenty of power to drive this storm up.

Right now I am especially concerned for the Tampa Bay residents, whom look to be the prime landfall. Of course, who knows really, so much uncertainly, the models are somewhat erratic this far out, but if I in was in Tampa, I'd have a bag packed, fueled up....and ready to get outta there by Wed' evening.

Calrissian: watching a little Atlantic Depression develop towards the UK

Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-17-2005 02:58 PM

Calrissian Wrote:if I in was in Tampa, I'd have a bag packed, fueled up....and ready to get outta there by Wed' evening.

By WEDNESDAY?????? I thought we were looking at a late weekend storm....unless you are just saying ot beat the crowd, in which case - I totally agree - I am not cancelling my trip unless with out fail she makes a Florida landfall and she is Cat 4 or 5. ... If not, I am going about my business. I have no other choice.

Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-17-2005 03:17 PM

*just to clarify...I would NEVER like to be in one of those crazy long traffic jams. I realise that the storm -if it does hit Florida, won't do so until the weekend.

Of course, people have work commitments, but by Thur/Fri things are gonna be getting a bit too close. I'd certainly rather be outta there asap.

Cal: living in the relative quiet of southern England

Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-17-2005 03:19 PM

Long Term (thursday Through Sunday)...high Pressure Over The
Southeast States Will Begin To Break Down As A Mid To Upper Level
Disturbance And Associated Surface Cold Front Approach From The
Northwest Thursday And Friday. Latest Gfs Model Run Indicates A
Frontal Passage Across The Forecast Area On Saturday...with
Temperatures And Dewpoints Cooling Back Down For Sunday.

However...still Much Uncertainty In The Long Term With Regards
To Tropical Storm Wilma. Latest Forecast From The Nhc Strengthen
Wilma To A Hurricane And Move Her Into The Southern Gulf By Early
Saturday. The Gfs Model Run Then Shows The Aforementioned Mid-upper
Disturbance Drawing Wilma Northward...then Northeastward Toward South
Or Central Florida Over The Weekend. Of Course...if The Mid Level
Energy Is Weaker Than Expected...wilma Could Maintain More Of A
Westward Track. All Interests Along The Gulf Coast Are Advised To
Keep A Close Eye On Wilma Through The Work Week. For More Specific
Advisories...forecasts And Discussions On Wilma...

Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-17-2005 03:35 PM

is it me, or is there a definitive eye developing with the last frame or so of visual data?
*yes, so much uncertainty with this storm. Certainly going to be a busy week, so glad this place is up Smile

Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-17-2005 03:39 PM

pressure down to 989 mb

Wilma main thread - Daniel294 - 10-17-2005 03:43 PM

ROLLTIDE Wrote:pressure down to 989 mb
Bombing underway then.

I'm expecting hurricane by late tonight.

Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-17-2005 03:44 PM

oy vey.

well, I will make a trip to the store and get some more batteries just in case. I think I have used up all that I had and not on flashlights.....Madison's toys require a lot of AA batteries...anyway, better safe than sorry to have them in the freezer.

- what are your thoughts on Wilma's destination?

Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-17-2005 03:45 PM

[Image: at200524_5day.gif]
a reconnaissance aircraft has just arrived in the center of
Wilma...finding a minimum pressure of 989 mb...and peak 850 mb
flight-level winds of 51 kt in the southeast quadrant. While this
minimum pressure often corresponds to near hurricane intensity...
environmental pressures are unusually low...flattening the pressure
gradient. Though the overall amount of deep convection has
decreased with the diurnal minimum...banding continues to develop
and new convection is going off directly over the center. Wilma
continues to maintain a strong upper-level outflow pattern...one
which is forecast to persist by the global models. Continued
development is expected...with both the SHIPS and GFDL models
making Wilma a major hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Once
Wilma gets into the Gulf of Mexico...the upper flow will become
more hostile as shear increases...and some weakening is therefore
expected at that time.
Wilma continues to drift mostly southward...or 190/2. Certainly
there has been more southward motion than anticipated...with this
possibly associated with the convective asymmetry observed
overnight and through much of the day today. However...the core
convection has become more symmetric this afternoon...and I am
expecting Wilma to soon begin moving slowly westward in better
accord with the guidance. The basic synoptic reasoning is
unchanged from previous advisories. High pressure over the western
Gulf of Mexico is expected to weaken as the large low off of Baja
California moves eastward. This is expected to allow Wilma to
gradually turn northwestward over the next two to three days. For
reasons unknown...the model guidance has come into much better
agreement this afternoon. The 12z runs of the NOGAPS and UKMET
models have shifted northward by about 200 miles and no longer
drive Wilma into Belize. The GFS and GFDL...on the other
hand...have shifted westward...resulting in a rather narrow
guidance envelope rather close to the previous official forecast.
Consequently...little change has been made to the previous
advisory...except that by the very end of the forecast period Wilma
is expected to be encountering westerly flow in the Gulf of Mexico
that should force a fairly sharp right turn. How sharp a turn Wilma
takes is obviously of interest to all along the eastern Gulf of
Mexico...but it is far too early to identify specific areas at
greatest risk.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/2100z 15.8n 79.9w 45 kt
12hr VT 18/0600z 15.9n 80.7w 55 kt
24hr VT 18/1800z 16.3n 81.8w 65 kt
36hr VT 19/0600z 16.9n 82.8w 75 kt
48hr VT 19/1800z 17.7n 84.0w 85 kt
72hr VT 20/1800z 19.5n 85.5w 100 kt
96hr VT 21/1800z 21.5n 86.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 22/1800z 23.5n 85.0w 90 kt

Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-17-2005 04:04 PM

Here are the latest positions cone errors and strike probabilities as of 5:00PM EST by the NHC