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Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-20-2005 11:13 AM

anyone wanna go away for a quick weekend to cozumel?

[Image: at200524.gif]


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-20-2005 11:21 AM

mom2grls72 Wrote:Hurricane enthusiast here..no expert by any means, but I was wondering what you all thought of these last three major storms in how they formed so quickly and became so powerful so fast and how they look with regard to other storms in previous years, and this new talk about "created" storms? Katrina, Rita and Wilma..all three have shown to form quickly and became extremely powerful very fast and the eye looks weird. Anyone care to chime in on this?

I am no expert either but,....I think the elements were just dead on for all three. The waters in the GOM were high too. But, it is scary how fast they grew - all three basically over night jumped up to the plate sliding past records. It was truly amazing to watch and horrifing to the reality.


Wilma main thread - tigergirl - 10-20-2005 11:33 AM

Will she become a cat 5 again before she strikes????


Wilma main thread - dav3910 - 10-20-2005 11:40 AM

Probaly not, they waters in the GOM are too cold than they were in August/September. High Cat 3 is what im predicting.


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-20-2005 11:42 AM

tigergirl Wrote:Will she become a cat 5 again before she strikes????

she's predicted to become a cat 5 again before she strikes...and it looks like cozumel is about to find that out


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-20-2005 11:51 AM

dav3910 Wrote:Probaly not, they waters in the GOM are too cold than they were in August/September. High Cat 3 is what im predicting.

Have you really thought about the numbers though?

A storm like this is already packed with energy, the temps are 29C in the current Wilma area - a mere 1c less than slightly earlier in its track. The difference is virtually irrelevent.
see..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATANL_ATLSST/recent.html

you can see that the temps are really high right up to the Florida coast. It really doesn't matter where Wilma goes, there is plenty of energy in the GOM for it to remain a major Cat'3-5 storm and cause havoc.

All this talk of 'lower sea temps, and don't worry because big storms don't form in October'...arghh !

Cal: wishing people might realise that Alpha, Beta, and Gamma are highly likely.


Wilma main thread - Llarion - 10-20-2005 12:00 PM

LI Phil Wrote:anyone wanna go away for a quick weekend to cozumel?

Is Cozumel still actually there? Wink


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-20-2005 12:05 PM

Great site for those of us here in Florida:

http://www.floridadisaster.org/


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-20-2005 12:10 PM

Sarasota County SLOSH models : http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/sarasota_surgezone.pdf

Pinellas County SLOSH models:
http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/pinellas_surgezone.pdf

Hillsborough County SLOSH models:
http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/StormRoads/hillsborough_evac05.pdf

Manatee County SLOSH models:
http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/manatee_surgezone.pdf

Great way to see where you live and you should already know if you need to leave or not. But, the models will show at what level you will see depending on the size of the storm. Hope that helps.


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-20-2005 12:41 PM

Here are the latest positions cone error and strike probabilities as of 11:00AM EST by the NHC