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Wilma main thread - RitaToo - 10-20-2005 12:49 PM

Is it me or is the cone either widening, showing more uncertainty, and/or is the track moving north?

Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-20-2005 12:51 PM

1 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 18.6 north... longitude 85.5 west or about 160
miles... 255 km... south-southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

Wilma is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph ...7 km/hr. A
motion to the west-northwest or northwest is expected during the
next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some re-strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 260 miles...415 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 915 mb...27.02 inches.

Wilma main thread - mel - 10-20-2005 12:55 PM

Wilma is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph ...7 km/hr. A
motion to the west-northwest or northwest is expected during the
next 24 hours.

Uhh..I have been waiting for the northwest movement...it is here, but now she's expected to move west-northwest again during the next 24 hrs?

Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-20-2005 12:57 PM

The cone is looking ever wider. Soon it might be stretching to the UK (jk).
The track seems to be roughly the same, somewhere between the keys and Tampa bay. However, at this stage I really think its too hard to say where it'll hit Florida -if at all !

The predicted hard right turn....hmm. When you look at some of the tracks it almost looks as if the entire storm will 'bounce' off the coast like a giant pinball.
*if you look at the GOM pic, its very impressive right now.


The battle between Wilma...and the dry air is fierce, looks as though Wilma will do as she pleases though.

Cal: wondering when 'she' will regain Cat'5 status

Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-20-2005 01:03 PM

The 18Z run of the GFDL has returned to a similar point during yesterdays 18Z run.
Only time will tell. I hate time!!!

Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-20-2005 01:11 PM

Well models flip and flop over time and some do better with one storm than they will with another. The model i think has it is the LBAR it has only shifted north or south very little in the past 48 hours. Could it be wrong? yes and it would be worse for my area if it is correct but that model is holding its line it aint flippin like some of the others i say that is the one to keep an eye on.

Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-20-2005 01:14 PM

here's another update from one of my sources:

Hurricane Wilma is in the middle of a rather lengthy eyewall replacement cycle and I'd anticipate a much larger eye later this evening. With sustained winds of 125 knots, she is still a major hurricane and I think that she will maintain a steady state in intensity for the next 48 hours. Wilma has slowed considerably during the past few hours and her orientation on satellite suggests that a change to a more northwesterly motion may soon begin. This would move Wilma very close to the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula by sunrise on Friday morning. The wind field has expanded and hurricane force winds are likely over the northeast Yucatan even if she stays just offshore. Wilma should be moving in more of a northerly direction as she brushes past the Yucatan (or briefly makes landfall there).

By Friday afternoon the forward motion should become north northeast and eventually northeast on a path that will drive her toward south Florida. Westerly winds aloft, previously along the north Gulf coast have shifted south into the northern Gulf so a turn to the northeast is quite likely. The magnitude of this turn - still not yet firm, will determine the exact track across south Florida and the intensity of the storm at landfall.

Right now I'd anticipate a track from near Naples on the west coast to Hobe Sound on the east coast. The timing is also problematic but right now I'd lean toward landfall as a Category II (perhaps a weak Cat III) hurricane at mid-morning on Sunday with exit into the Atlantic by late Sunday afternoon - still as a Category I hurricane. This path 'could' mean strong tropical storm force winds of 55mph with gusts to 70mph in the Melbourne area with hurricane force winds to the south - but its still too early to define the anticipated winds for both coasts.

While I'm at it, there is another area in the Atlantic basin that deserves some attention. A tropical wave with a weak circulation center is located east southeast of Barbados near 12N 56W at 20/15Z. The wave showed significant improvement in overall structure last night and it is moving slowly to the west northwest and into an area of lighter wind shear and a slightly more favorable upper air environment. There is a good chance that this system will become a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 36 hours.

Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-20-2005 01:18 PM

That is a very good point there bob. I dont feel comfortable when the GFDL, UKMET and GFS give 3 different solutions and 2 of those keep flip flopping. I still feel confortable with the 12Z runs based on the gulfstream data that was entered at that point, i feel the NHC track should verify. As far as the LBAR, its always been wrong, so I dont think it will be right this time.

Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-20-2005 01:30 PM

I think the nhc track is fairly decent but i think itll move a bit more north before turning east i thnik it will be a bit north of the NHC track.

Chris- i didnt know that about the models i dont know a lot about them i do know the GFDL is pretty accurate.

Phil- the possibility of TS Alpha exists? This will shatter all storm records wont it? (EX. most in a season)

Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-20-2005 01:39 PM

bobbo4554 Wrote:I think the nhc track is fairly decent but i think itll move a bit more north before turning east i thnik it will be a bit north of the NHC track.

If you remember yesterday I said that the models would began shifting more N today and the turn would be more later than the were saying. Now look whats happening. I am waiting for the 12Z models to download then I will post them and we will see.

EDIT: Another thing in the 2pm advisory they say that it is moving NW. Then they say they expect a W WNW turn in 24 hrs. Now where is the NE turn going to happen at IF it goes back to the W WNW? Is the NHC smokin crack again today? I was waiting for a correction but havent got one yet.