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Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-20-2005 03:01 PM

This is from the NWS here in Mobile, Al.

GMZ084-202130-
MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
1030 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 23N E OF 89W
TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED S OF 26N FRI
THROUGH EARLY SUN


THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
S OF 23N E OF 89W WINDS NE TO E
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. S OF 23N W OF 89W N TO NE
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT. SEAS 6
TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT TONIGHT. FROM 23N TO
27N NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 33 KT TONIGHT.
SEAS 7 TO 9 FT BUILDING 8 TO 12 FT TONIGHT. N OF 27N NE TO E
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SQUALLS S OF 25N.

FRI THROUGH SUN
TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WINDS AND
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER S OF 26N E OF 90W DECREASING TO NLY 25 TO
30 KT LATE SUN. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE NLY WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SQUALLS S OF 27N.

SUN
NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

MON
NW TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-20-2005 03:45 PM

Wilma has turned northwestward...310/5...but this is not necessarily
the beginnings of recurvature. A short-wave trough in the
westerlies...the old low from Baja California...will move past the
longitude of the hurricane by tomorrow morning...and the track
models show a slight Bend back to the left as a little ridging
builds in behind it. In fact...the global models are now
suggesting that it may take three short waves to lift Wilma out of
the Yucatan. The GFDL did another big shift with its 5-day
forecast...from Canada at 6z to Cuba at 12z. There is less spread
in the GFS ensemble members this time...however...lending a little
more credence to a slower track. The 12z models also had the
benefit of dropwindsonde data from the NOAA gulfstream jet. The
new official forecast is slower than the previous one...but is
still very much faster than all of the available guidance. This
implies that the impact to Florida could well be later than
indicated here.
There is very little left of the inner eyewall...and reports from a
NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Wilma is beginning to
restrengthen. Peak flight level winds were 145 kt...and the SFMR
instrument onboard measured a surface wind of 125 kt in the north
eyewall. Based on these observations...the initial intensity is
set at 130 kt. The upper-level outflow pattern remains strong and
Wilma will have the opportunity to regain category five status
before it reaches the Yucatan...and the impacts there could be
catastrophic. With the likelihood of a more extended interaction
with the Yucatan increasing...significant weakening is possible
before Wilma turns toward Florida. In addition...the longer Wilma
lingers before turning northeastward...the more hostile the
atmospheric environment will become for strengthening over the Gulf
of Mexico.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 20/2100z 18.9n 85.7w 130 kt
12hr VT 21/0600z 19.5n 86.4w 140 kt
24hr VT 21/1800z 20.4n 87.0w 145 kt...inland
36hr VT 22/0600z 21.1n 87.2w 120 kt...inland
48hr VT 22/1800z 22.0n 87.0w 100 kt
72hr VT 23/1800z 23.5n 84.5w 95 kt
96hr VT 24/1800z 27.5n 79.5w 65 kt
120hr VT 25/1800z 38.0n 70.0w 60 kt...extratropical


$$


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-20-2005 03:54 PM

definitely getting her act back together

i hope the people on cozumel are ok...can they evac even?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-20-2005 03:56 PM

Well, Max just said that he expects her to get back up to a CAT 5.......geez.


Wilma main thread - TallahasseeLassie - 10-20-2005 03:57 PM

i think she just did


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-20-2005 03:58 PM

i know everyone is focused on wilma, and rightly so...check out the activity flaring up just east of the antilles...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html


Wilma main thread - stella1952 - 10-20-2005 04:03 PM

I have not seen this question, so I am gonna ask. WHY do folks think that Wilma will not continue over the Yucatan into the warmer SW GOM? I understand that the winds aloft are blowing from the west which is 'spoze to take the storm to the east, but why will it not enter the SW GOM?


Wilma main thread - sircane - 10-20-2005 04:06 PM

Alabamaboy, do you think we're safe?


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-20-2005 04:27 PM

Here are the latest positions cone error and strike probabilities as of 5:00PM EST by the NHC


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-20-2005 04:29 PM

SirCane Wrote:Alabamaboy, do you think we're safe?

I will say that the NGOM W will be saft when the NE turn is made but til then Don't let your guard down. IF it does come this way it wont be no more than a high 3 because of the 80deg water. Also the weathermen here are forecasting lows in the 40's Sunday night. So this will be a strong trough coming thru.