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Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-20-2005 04:33 PM

bamaboy...i can't quite make out the NHC forecast for wind gusts on friday, when they take it right over cozumel, but does that say GUSTS TO 200MPH?

holy schnikey, batman


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-20-2005 04:47 PM

LI Phil Wrote:bamaboy...i can't quite make out the NHC forecast for wind gusts on friday, when they take it right over cozumel, but does that say GUSTS TO 200MPH?

holy schnikey, batman

167 Gust to 201 yep


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-20-2005 04:51 PM

oh god that's horrible


Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-20-2005 05:05 PM

well, phil, this is going to sound bad, but lets just hope it stays out far enough that if anyone gets hit its only cozumel. that is just a resort area, it will take a bad hit, but it would not be as bad as if wilma were to go into cancun. Those people there are poor, and all they have is working in the hotels and tourism to live on. it would be devestating to get a hit by a cat 5.


BTW - that eyewall is reforming well on the NE side, and this time its a biggie. The NHC looks like they were on with forecasting it would go back to cat 5, i really doubted it would, but if this thing completes that eye, then im sure she will.

Also, she has started to make a sharp north turn, i know the NHC says it wont keep going like that, but that is something to keep an eye on


Wilma main thread - redheaded2 - 10-20-2005 05:56 PM

(Lurker poking head up)...These models are killing me, my mom's in Tampa, moved from Chicago last year to get away from the lousy weather. (Sigh...so much for timing) I read on Tampa Bay Online website if Wilma goes farther north than the current forecasts she could hit there. Question is, does anyone here trust ANY of these models or is the general consensus "she's a monster and will go wherever the hell she wants"...? That's my humble opinion anyhoo. (Going back in my mole hole now)

PS thanks for sharing all your knowledge, I can't believe how much a person can learn about weather hanging out here :-)


Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-20-2005 06:08 PM

redheaded - this is a very strange storm, and a very strong one at that. She seems to kinda want to do what she feels like in a way, but there is a pretty strong consensus that she will hit the western coast of florida. where, that is what is probably uncertain at this point. I would recomend that your mom pay close attention to the news, and also get some things together. Tell her to maybe start putting together things that you would need to take, i.e. important documents, and stuff, and maybe even start packing a suit case or two. Beucase when the word comes to evacuate, its good to get out as fast as you can. Shell be a lot better of if shes ready to go, and if it looks like the storm isnt even going to hit tampa, but is close, she may feel like she wants to leave anyway, and shell be ready just the same.


Wilma main thread - mike18xx - 10-20-2005 06:44 PM

My forecast: Wilma will trundle slowly toward and possibly over Cozemal, then stall for about a day, then slowly begin moving ENE or due east toward western Cuba (rather than slingshotting northeast). The new annular structure of the hurricane will prevent significant weakening is at least half of the eye remains over water while grazing the Yucatan.


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-20-2005 06:46 PM

mike18xx Wrote:My forecast: Wilma will trundle slowly toward and possibly over Cozemal, then stall for about a day, then slowly begin moving ENE or due east toward western Cuba (rather than slingshotting northeast). The new annular structure of the hurricane will prevent significant weakening is at least half of the eye remains over water while grazing the Yucatan.

okay, and then what? You were pretty dead on for Rita as far as her strengthening....just curious what else you are thinking.....


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-20-2005 06:50 PM

If you look at the greater storm area - rather than focus on the eye, Wilma is very much on a near Northerly track. I would think the eye is just gonna skirt the very tip, and of course this would mean Wilma is virtually unaffected by land...and will remain a strong cat'4 at least.
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Just go check the loop, and see what you think. With night falling, will there be a strengthening, hmm, probably, but mediated mostly by the current close call with Mexico.

*maybe its me, but I'm exhausted with Wilma already, and she ain't even close to getting through the gap yet and making the long awaited turn.

Calrissian: time for bed....soon


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-20-2005 08:16 PM

i am looking at the satellite images and it looks as if she is wobbling from NW to NNW also on the IR loop that eyewall is getting very intense and red colored i wouldnt be surprised if its a V again by 11 it is very well on her way. Also if this NW to NNW movement continues she will just graze cozumel and cancun but the eye will stay partly over water. I dont think that mexico will have a big as impact on her as people think