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Wilma main thread - Ares - 10-20-2005 08:45 PM

bobbo4554 Wrote:i am looking at the satellite images and it looks as if she is wobbling from NW to NNW also on the IR loop that eyewall is getting very intense and red colored i wouldnt be surprised if its a V again by 11 it is very well on her way. Also if this NW to NNW movement continues she will just graze cozumel and cancun but the eye will stay partly over water. I dont think that mexico will have a big as impact on her as people think

Do you feel it could have CAT5 intensity at landfall?


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-20-2005 08:51 PM

those northward jogs are wobbles and not a trend...she will strike just south of cozumel (poor bastids) probably as a strengthening 4 or 5, and then plow across the yucatan...

this will serve to weaken her down to a three


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-20-2005 08:54 PM

LI Phil, how can anyone be sure of that. And, after all every wobble counts. Plus we all know that landfalling systems will have a tendency to "Skirt" around a landmass.


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-20-2005 08:59 PM

i guess we'll just have to see then


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-20-2005 09:08 PM

hcwman Wrote:Do you feel it could have CAT5 intensity at landfall?
No in florida no but in mexico yes i dont think that a category 5 at landfall is out of the question. As phil said we gotta watch and wait


Wilma main thread - mavidal - 10-20-2005 09:17 PM

Well, all I am doing here in Miami is watching and waiting. Intersting though, this early evening I saw a huge flock of Grackles roosting on several power lines. Kinda of a good sign, seeing as how I have not seen many birds the last few days.

Maybe Wilma will go north of us and all we get is some tropical storm force winds.

Mike V.


Wilma main thread - tgenius - 10-20-2005 09:24 PM

mavidal Wrote:Well, all I am doing here in Miami is watching and waiting. Intersting though, this early evening I saw a huge flock of Grackles roosting on several power lines. Kinda of a good sign, seeing as how I have not seen many birds the last few days.

Maybe Wilma will go north of us and all we get is some tropical storm force winds.

Mike V.

Unfortunately,based on what I was reading, the strongest wind in this storm is SE of the eye.. if it takes the NHC path.. they were predicting (assuming it came across as a Cat3 to SW FL) that Dade county would get Cat3 Wind Gust!

My main concern is the stronger that it gets now.. the stronger it will be if/when it interacts with the Yucatan.


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-20-2005 09:40 PM

Motion update...
10 pm CDT update is in...
motion now at 325 degrees at 6mph
due NW is 315 so Wilma is neading more north than NW and more north than the previous advisories.


Wilma main thread - Daniel294 - 10-20-2005 09:51 PM

Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 23

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on October 20, 2005

...Extremely dangerous category four Wilma moving slowly toward
Cozumel and becoming better organized...


a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Chetumal on
the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby islands.


A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from
west of San Felipe to celestun.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Belize from the
border with Mexico southward to Belize City.


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the
provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the
Isle of Youth.


At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the government of Honduras has discontinued
the Hurricane Warning for Swan Island and the Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of Honduras.


All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 19.3 north...longitude 86.0 west or about 100
miles... 165 km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.


Wilma is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph... 9 km/hr...and a
slow northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected to
continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center
of Wilma will be very near Cozumel and the northeastern coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula by midday tomorrow. However...Wilma has a
large circulation and hurricane conditions will be felt well before
the arrival of the center.


Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Satellite imagery indicates that Wilma is gradually
becoming better organized...and the hurricane could regain category
five strength as it approaches the Yucatan tonight or Friday.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km. NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported sustained
winds of 77 mph... 124 km/hr...with a gust to 87 mph... 140 km/hr.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb...27.26 inches.


Coastal storm surge flooding of 7-11 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall on
the Yucatan Peninsula.


Wilma is expected to produce 10 to 20 inches of rain through
Saturday across portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula...with isolated amounts of 40 inches possible...
particularly over higher terrain of western Cuba. Outer rainbands
will continue to affect portions of southern Florida...especially
the Keys...with some 1 to 3 inch rains possible through Saturday.

NOAA buoy 42003 in the eastern Gulf of Mexico indicates that large
swells generated by Wilma have propagated well into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. These swells will likely affect portions of the
northern Gulf Coast on Friday.


Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...19.3 N... 86.0 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure... 923 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 4 am CDT.


Forecaster Beven




$$


Wilma main thread - mavidal - 10-20-2005 10:17 PM

tgenius Wrote:Unfortunately,based on what I was reading, the strongest wind in this storm is SE of the eye.. if it takes the NHC path.. they were predicting (assuming it came across as a Cat3 to SW FL) that Dade county would get Cat3 Wind Gust!

My main concern is the stronger that it gets now.. the stronger it will be if/when it interacts with the Yucatan.
Well, it depends where north it hits and where in Miami you are. I am in deep south dade if you will, cutler ridge to be more specific. Given the width of the windfield, if the storm tracks from lets say, Everglades city to Palm Beach, we will get Hurricane force gust, but maybe to about 85/90mph, not much more.

I don't know if you were here for Andrew, but that was bizarre with that storm. At about 136th st SW, it was like a wall, everything south of that was really torn up and leveled bad, north of that, no comparison.

Mike V