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Wilma main thread - max2 - 10-21-2005 10:16 AM

Shes now only moving at 4 mph Sad


Wilma main thread - Suzondabayou - 10-21-2005 10:28 AM

The last two updates on the GOES imagery, the NHC's track has changed ever so lightly to more north ove the Yucatan, with not a hard turn to the east, but one with a bit of a more northly turn than a hard one.


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 10:48 AM

true and obvisouly the longer it moves north will impact where she hits on fla's west coast.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUIR.JPG textbook hurricane, also if you look on key west and Tampa radar the outermost fringes of wilma are coming off the center and starting to affect florida.


Wilma main thread - HurricaneWilma - 10-21-2005 11:21 AM

what is truely amazing is that cozumel will be in the eye for about 5 - 7 hours at this speed. Can you image that, 150+ mph winds then sunshine and a cool breeze for 5 - 7 hours then back to 150+ mphs.. thats amazing. I think 30 mins in a eye seems like a long time, can you image 7 hours ?


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 11:23 AM

In my opinion...

It appears that wima considers to slow rapidly. Recent satellite data hints a WNW motion near 2 mph and still slowing. The convective stage that it is in now appears to hold true once again as the north western eyewall warms and does so rapidly.

Will Wilma stall over Cozumel, where it is now?
or
Will Wilma start moving northward again to stall inland?

It appears, to me atleast, that Wilma may not progress to much firther as steering currents have virtually left the system now, sooner then expected. Wilma is now just drifting and is somwhat stalled.

My question, if Wilma stalls where it is now, what effect will that have on FLA?
I think it will prolong landfall by 12 hours and should nave a bit more northerly component while moving easterly. Any other ideas?


Wilma main thread - HurricaneWilma - 10-21-2005 11:24 AM

Wilma will not skirt the coast, she is moving more NW and even a little more WNW / NW the next 24 hours and will slam hard into the yucatan, might not even be a hurricane by the time she comes out somewhere around 89W


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-21-2005 11:26 AM

pretty soon the entire island will be enveloped by the eye

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T1/FT_loop.html

EDIT: wv loop doesn't properly show the eye...it is not as large as it appears...check out the vis sat for a better representation

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T1/VIS_loop.html


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 11:29 AM

The island is within the OUTTER EYE.... The island is still about 10-15 miles from the inner eyewall.... look at radar, not the sat when looking for that inner eye.


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-21-2005 11:40 AM

heh...see my edit above...we caught that at the same time

here's a look at the carib basin...notice what will probably become hurricane alpha west of the antillies along with wilma...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-21-2005 12:25 PM

Here are the latest positions cone error and strike probabilities as of 11:00AM EST by the NHC