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Wilma main thread - cascred - 10-17-2005 04:15 PM

cascred Wrote:I wouldn't go that far. What's to stop her from turning NE after 5 days?

katiebuglj Wrote:a whole lot of prayers

Better start praying. It looks like the NE turn is inneviatable.


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-17-2005 04:36 PM

cascred Wrote:Better start praying. It looks like the NE turn is inneviatable.

I'm not saying that it wont take a NE turn but I don't think that it will mage that right hand turn that sharp and that far out. If it was doing like Charlie then I would say a possibility. But this look more like a Ivan track than a Mitch track. Also forecasters and trackers are still tring to compare these with previous storms. Well this is a new thing happening now. And they will see that in the future they cant compare them. No storm this year has done what other storms has did in the past. They all have had everyone scratching their head in dismay. I look for a NNE turn first then a N NNE. The High in the GOM is weakining and that will allow the turn to start and the trough in Cal will come thru and pick it up. So right now a W trens for the next 2-3 days then a slow NW N NE trend.


Wilma main thread - cascred - 10-17-2005 04:43 PM

Alabamaboy Wrote:I'm not saying that it wont take a NE turn but I don't think that it will mage that right hand turn that sharp and that far out.

I agree. The official NHC forecast turns it sharply to the NE. Hurricanes don't often do that, but it has happened. I can't recall one turning like that when it was still so far south.

Can anyone remember the name of the storm that drifted from the FL panhandle towards LA, and then back to FL again? It was years ago.

I think one reason for the appearance of such a sharp turn is that these are points on a graph. In this case, the points are 24 hours apart, where the other points are 12 hours apart. What this graph does not show you is what path the hurricane takes during that 12 hour period. Even if the forecast path were close, the actual path would be much more curved, and would not travel a straight line between days 4 and 5.

Bill


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-17-2005 04:48 PM

cascred Wrote:I agree. The official NHC forecast turns it sharply to the NE. Hurricanes don't often do that, but it has happened. I can't recall one turning like that when it was still so far south.

Can anyone remember the name of the storm that drifted from the FL panhandle towards LA, and then back to FL again? It was years ago.

I think one reason for the appearance of such a sharp turn is that these are points on a graph. In this case, the points are 24 hours apart, where the other points are 12 hours apart. What this graph does not show you is what path the hurricane takes during that 12 hour period. Even if the forecast path were close, the actual path would be much more curved, and would not travel a straight line between days 4 and 5.

Bill

Well they said that the High in the GOM is strong. But I just checked the bouys out there and from where Wilma to off Fl and off Tx even off Ms all say the pressure is falling by .8mb. So that tell me the High is eroding and that will allow the WNW trend until the trough get here in about 3 days to start pulling it toward the NW then NNE so I am still going with my initial forecast of Morgan City, LA to P'Cola, FL with a high cat 4 before landfall and a High to low 3 at landfall by this weekend. But this is my observations listen to the NHC and your local NWS for official information.


Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-17-2005 04:48 PM

If anything lets hope that it takes a longer time to turn and heads into the big bend where there arent as many people as the SW florida coast Sad


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-17-2005 05:02 PM

but...the good thing is - they are predicting sheer and weakening the storm at some point by Thursday going into Friday which would be great for any landfall.


Wilma main thread - MooreStorm01 - 10-17-2005 05:05 PM

Oberservations:
A: Models did not handle Katrina very well when she was a TS heading into SE Fl, then eventually made CAT 1 before landfall. Models had her heading into Gulf and back up through central Fl and possibly into Atlantic off GA/SC.
B: Contact with Yuk could and should have an affect on her FC, therefore I believe she will cause the models to handle the H/Trough differently prompting a gradual turn based on model correlation.
C: I wish her name was Betty, at least it wouldn't end in an A (i.e. KatrinA, RitA)


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-17-2005 05:12 PM

MooreStorm01 Wrote:Oberservations:
I wish her name was Betty, at least it wouldn't end in an A (i.e. KatrinA, RitA)


ouch good observation....


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-17-2005 05:43 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-17-2005 06:17 PM

woah !
That is some impressive cloud formation in frames 19.15-22.45 UT. We've certainly seen that in both Katrina and Rita. A classic bit of 'exploding' cloud development.

Remembering back, I recall that the storms can often find it easier to deepen during the night. Fascinating to watch yet another monster in entering the 'teenage' stage.

Cal: eyes on Wild Wilma