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Wilma main thread - TallahasseeLassie - 10-21-2005 12:36 PM

Interesting that apalachicola went up from a 5 to a 7 in the strike prob's.


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-21-2005 12:44 PM

TallahasseeLassie Wrote:Interesting that apalachicola went up from a 5 to a 7 in the strike prob's.

Whats more interesting is that Mobile P'Cola New Orleans Burras La is in the strike prob if it is suppose to hit SW Fla.


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-21-2005 12:45 PM

Here are the latest model runs as of 21/12Z


Wilma main thread - TallahasseeLassie - 10-21-2005 12:51 PM

Alabamaboy Wrote:Whats more interesting is that Mobile P'Cola New Orleans Burras La is in the strike prob if it is suppose to hit SW Fla.

Yeah i know thats kinda freaking me out.


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-21-2005 01:07 PM

Are there any reports out of Cozmel or Cancun??? Last I heard they had lost all communication with Cozmel around 4 yesterday. One of the Wilma maps on the sticky shows that the eye is grazing the island.....just curious if anyone knows of a site or channel that might show what is going on or if they have heard of the amount of damage so far. I feel horrible. These areas have been just hammered by a major hurricane for a few dsays now. I sure hope they got ready while they could.


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 01:10 PM

964
URNT12 KNHC 211801
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:44:00Z
B. 20 deg 19 min N
086 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2461 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 101 deg 116 kt
G. 010 deg 035 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 7 C/ 3048 m
J. 20 C/ 3042 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A WILMA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 116 KT N QUAD 17:24:50 Z


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 01:22 PM

too have been that close to land for this long she really still looks good on satellite.

Katie-i have been looking at the radar all day and cozumel is about to go into the eye cancun however is about to get slammed with the northwest outer eyewall which looks to be VERY intense i really dont think the way theyve been pounded today that there are any lines left for communication. God i hope they are alright.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 211800
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...EYEWALL OF WILMA LASHING COZUMEL AND NEARING THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES... 25 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL BE OVER COZUMEL DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WILMA HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED
IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CANCUN RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG RAINBANDS OVER COZUMEL AND CANCUN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH... 225 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE WILMA
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES... 325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 56 MPH... 91 KM/HR... AND 27 FOOT SEAS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE
KEYS... WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...20.4 N... 86.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 926 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

I can no longer view cancun radar (Probably been knocked out by winds) but judging by the GOES floaters it looks as if wilma has made landfall on the yuctan just south of cancun mexico.


Wilma main thread - Alex - 10-21-2005 02:03 PM

katiebuglj Wrote:Are there any reports out of Cozmel or Cancun??? Last I heard they had lost all communication with Cozmel around 4 yesterday. One of the Wilma maps on the sticky shows that the eye is grazing the island.....just curious if anyone knows of a site or channel that might show what is going on or if they have heard of the amount of damage so far. I feel horrible. These areas have been just hammered by a major hurricane for a few dsays now. I sure hope they got ready while they could.

The eye is completely over the island now; it has to be very bad. I went to this website and found no report (go figure) and a web image from yesterday showing dark skies with blowing palms:




Wilma main thread - Texas SpeedDiva - 10-21-2005 02:04 PM

Alabamaboy Wrote:Whats more interesting is that Mobile P'Cola New Orleans Burras La is in the strike prob if it is suppose to hit SW Fla.

I've found that curious too and wondered about that. I don't wish it on Fla, Ala or La. I'm just relieved that Texas hasn't been in the strike prob.

Go ASTROS!


Wilma main thread - Alex - 10-21-2005 02:10 PM

This image is quite telling as to what is transpiring weatherwise in Cozumel at the moment:



The last weather reports from Cozumel:
24 Hour Summary

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F © Dew Point
F © Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 4 PM (20) Oct 20 smoke, ; well developed dust or sand whirls,
3 PM (19) Oct 20 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.6 (1002) ENE 46
2 PM (18) Oct 20 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.61 (1002) ENE 40 haze
1 PM (17) Oct 20 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.65 (1004) NNE 23 haze
Noon (16) Oct 20 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.63 (1003) NNE 23 haze

Precipitation
Amount
6.28 inches In the 6 hours preceding Oct 20, 2005 - 08:00 AM EDT / 2005.10.20 1200 UTC