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Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 03:28 PM

As I have said before, when steering currents are very low, hurricane have a mind of their own. They will resist land because of the land air friction. I expected this... It would not surprise me to see it wobble around the cost for a while, but still barely making landfall tomorrow, not today. Again, only time will tell.


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 03:30 PM

Calrissian Wrote:Re: waves.
yes, I believe its 40ft (well, in some areas) + the storm surge of 15-20ft. Unimaginable, and for 3 hours+.
--

Am looking at the past 2 frames..looks like Wilma is resisting the coast, certainly some distinct Northward movement. Could just be yet another irrevelent wobble, but still. another hour or so of this..and Wilma will be looking much more secure in maintaining its integrity.

thats what i was saying it looks as if she is rebuking the coast and not want to give her power up. Very interesting and if this keeps up it puts florida in a bad situtation so these hour are very critical for us here in the sunshine state. We re getting bands off of wilma here its been raining since 3:30


Wilma main thread - tigergirl - 10-21-2005 03:36 PM

Does she looks like she is stalling????


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 03:38 PM

not as of yet. She looks to be wobbling to the north a little she is resisting the mexican mainland for some odd reason. But no i do not think she is stalling yet she may have slowed a bit probably id say to 3 mph but not stalled yet

Last 3 frames look like she may be picking up a NNW movement which would just clip the mexican coast so it is gonna be interesting.


Wilma main thread - tigergirl - 10-21-2005 03:40 PM

Thanks! I was wondering if she was moving real slow or stalling or that my radar pics were not refreshing! Let's hope everyone is safe on the island!!!


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-21-2005 03:45 PM

hey all...
live Tv link, for those interested (or who may not have it)

WESH: http://mfile.akamai.com/12890/live/reflector:38843.asx
(note, screen is blank during commercials)

also, a general link:
http://www.weatherserver.net/hurricanecenter/
*just in case some of you not from the USA with local coverage - like yours truly !
---
Yes, surely the speed with be down to 3...or even 2 mph. Indeed, the next 3-6 hours look absolutely critical. I'm still thinking perceving it as just skirting the coast, rather than a proper landfall.

Calrissian: awaiting the live NHC update on WESH.


Wilma main thread - TallahasseeLassie - 10-21-2005 03:45 PM

Wanna hear something REALLY funny?~?
I JUST got an e-mail alert from CBS NEWS that she JUST made landfall in Mexico.
And all this time i thought Conzumel was in mexico!


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 03:45 PM

705
URNT12 KNHC 212018
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/20:06:40Z
B. 20 deg 27 min N
086 deg 46 min W
C. 700 mb 2454 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 098 deg 119 kt
G. 008 deg 017 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 8 C/ 3050 m
J. 18 C/ 3049 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A WILMA OB 22
MAX FL WIND 123 KT NE QUAD 19:12:50 Z


PRESSURE 926 (DOWN FOR 930)
WINDS 130 (UP FROM 120 3 HOURS AGO)

WINDS AND PRESSURE ARE SURFACE AND FROM FLIGHT RECON, NOT THE OFFICIAL NHC ISSUE ADV.


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 03:47 PM

Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 26


Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on October 21, 2005



...Eye of Wilma crossing over Cozumel...
...Northwestern eyewall on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Chetumal on
the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from
west of San Felipe to celestun.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the
provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the
Isle of Youth.

All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 20.6 north... longitude 86.9 west or over the northeastern
end of the island of Cozumel.

Wilma is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph... 7 km/hr... and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours. On this track... the center of Wilma is expected to move
inland over the extreme northeastern Yucatan Peninsula tonight and
remain inland on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible before the
center of Wilma makes landfall over the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula. Some weakening is expected tonight and Saturday after
the center moves inland.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft was 926 mb...27.34 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide
levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves... can be
expected near and to the north of the center along on the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.

Wilma is expected to produce 10 to 20 inches of rain through
Sunday across portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula...
with isolated amounts of 40 inches possible. Outer rainbands will
continue to affect portions of southern Florida... especially the
Keys... with some 2 to 4 inch rains possible through Sunday.

NOAA buoy 42003 in the eastern Gulf of Mexico indicates that large
swells generated by Wilma have propagated well into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. These swells will likely affect portions of the
northern Gulf Coast tonight.

Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...20.6 N... 86.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 926 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM
CDT.

Forecaster Knabb


$$


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 03:48 PM

Please note talli, NHC has not officialy confirmed landfall so untill they do, landfall has not occured.