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Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 03:48 PM

still a 4 truly amazing and to maintain its structure and strength after being near land for so long. and she has not slowed yet either


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-21-2005 03:55 PM

a mini-commentary on the forecasts...

Watching Max Mayfield, showing the 3 models, with the storm almost 'sprinting off the start line of Yucatan, across Florida and then up along the east coast.
They believe the storm will decrease to a Cat'1 or 2, huh?

Why would it do that? The water is plenty warm enough there to fuel a good Cat'3 strength storm. The shear is marginal I believe. We all saw how Katrina intensified as it moved across land - and moved SW.

To me, it looks as though they are underplaying things a little too much. Wilma is taking her time, - doubtless annoying many, but still...this is a cat'4 storm, and even if it turns as expected, I just can't see it calming down below a strong Cat'3.

So, even if it does make the turn hard right, does anyone know the reasons they are stating it might fade as it tracks eastwards?


Wilma main thread - Mottster - 10-21-2005 03:59 PM

Just caught this from CNN.com

Hurricane Wilma officially makes landfall as a Category 4 storm, with the eye's center hitting Cozumel, Mexico, meteorologists say.


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 04:00 PM

because they are predicting her to linger over the yucatan for 2 days but she hasnt slowed or sped all day but i dont buy her hitting as a one either i also dont buy her lingering over the yucatan for two days.

This is kinda freakishly similar to charley they predicted tampa for 5 days. One model showed him hitting punta gorda and that was right.

Wilma 1 year later shes forecasted for ft. myers and have been for days models are showing her hitting there but a few are taking her north into tampa.

Will she pull a Charley?


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 04:01 PM

15 kts is a lot of shear.

Just keep in mind, the NHC has said it themself, their wind forcast are the ones they have the least faith in.

The land interaction should weaken the system down to a cat 1, maybe a cat 2 depending how much the easter eyewall remains off shore, I do believe the east part of the will do just that and the system slowly meanders northward... Once the system emerges back indo the gulf, the water tempuratures can support a 4, but the shear will likely induce slow yet steady weakening. I do, however, think Wilma will gain strangth as it moves off before encountering the upper level shear.


Wilma main thread - GingerStorm - 10-21-2005 04:03 PM

oh geez... here goes again... hell hath no fury like a woman's scorn... or something like that... i.e., Katrina, Rita, now Wilma... get it? women's scorns...

but seriously... this sucks majorly


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-21-2005 04:04 PM

Calrissian Wrote:a mini-commentary on the forecasts...

Watching Max Mayfield, showing the 3 models, with the storm almost 'sprinting off the start line of Yucatan, across Florida and then up along the east coast.
They believe the storm will decrease to a Cat'1 or 2, huh?

Why would it do that? The water is plenty warm enough there to fuel a good Cat'3 strength storm. The shear is marginal I believe. We all saw how Katrina intensified as it moved across land - and moved SW.

To me, it looks as though they are underplaying things a little too much. Wilma is taking her time, - doubtless annoying many, but still...this is a cat'4 storm, and even if it turns as expected, I just can't see it calming down below a strong Cat'3.

So, even if it does make the turn hard right, does anyone know the reasons they are stating it might fade as it tracks eastwards?

perhaps they will discuss this in their discussion, which was not out last i checked 10 seconds ago...

i believe their reasoning for this can be explained by the following track...they presume it will cross over land, de-intensifying the storm over land to a cat i, only being able to strengthen to a 2 again before landfalling as a cat i...this would be awesome if it were to happen...i myself don't necessarily agree with this, but it would explain why they think it will do what they have proposed...

[Image: at200524.gif]


Wilma main thread - Reyna - 10-21-2005 04:06 PM

tigergirl Wrote:Thanks! I was wondering if she was moving real slow or stalling or that my radar pics were not refreshing! Let's hope everyone is safe on the island!!!

Hi Tigergirl,

over at hurricanecity.com they are some pics and commentation. Here is the link:

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml


Wilma main thread - cascred - 10-21-2005 04:10 PM

Calrissian Wrote:a mini-commentary on the forecasts...
So, even if it does make the turn hard right, does anyone know the reasons they are stating it might fade as it tracks eastwards?

Strong Westerlies


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-21-2005 04:11 PM

okay, thanks for that.
so..
1. assume it stays over land, and falls to cat'1
2. the shear from the jet steam, is believed to mess up the storm as it moves east
---
Hmm.
I just don't see Wilma having a significant amount of her 'bodywork' being over land for it to fade to a Cat'3, never mind '1 ! Naturally, the next 3-6 hrs will prove me right or wrong.
As for the shear...hmm, that is something I don't really know about, but if Wilma is cruising along at 15mph ( I assume it'll be at that speed, I've seen no numbers on it), then wouldn't the shear be less of a problem ?

Wilma...Cat'3 Florida landfall. All this talk of 'mere Cat'1, could bite the NHC in their collective academic butt. They've worked so hard lately, it would be a real shame to see them get mega-flack if Wilma doesn't do as they are now saying. I don't envy them.

Cal: concerned.