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Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-21-2005 04:16 PM

Here are the latest positions cone error and strike probabilities as of 5:00PM EST by the NHC


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 04:19 PM

whats truly mindboggling this is gonna be florida's 7th hurricane in 14 months!

Charley 4, Jeanne 3, Frances 2, Ivan 3/4?, Dennis 3, Katrina 1, Wilma???


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-21-2005 04:22 PM

i forget, was Rita a cane over a part of the keys, or just a TS?


Wilma main thread - HoumaLA_WXguy - 10-21-2005 04:29 PM

It exploded into a massive cane right after it left the keys..

Travis


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 04:30 PM

i think she was a TS i dont think she became a 'cane until she emerged into the gulf.


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-21-2005 04:31 PM

LI Phil Wrote:i forget, was Rita a cane over a part of the keys, or just a TS?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005/index.html

err. Cat'1 I think (at least).

Makes me wonder, one cane' on average every 8-10 weeks or so. Sure is getting to be a 'challenging' place to live.
---
Meanwhile....Wilma is seemingly Stuck, sorta.
I'm still not seeing this thing move inland like the majority seem to believe. We all know Storms are physically adverse to land and try to stay away...if possible. Wilma has ample time to make her escape to the safety of open Ocean, and I believe she will show that within the next few hours - certainly before I sign offline for the night.

Calrissian: rivetted to the coverage, Wilma... and HCW forum Smile


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-21-2005 04:51 PM

it's kind of hard to tell, but (click the TROP FCST PTS box), does it appear to anyone else that she is tracking NORTH of the first icon? this could of course be a wobble and not a trend, but it is interesting to note.

any thoughts?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T1/VIS_loop.html


Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-21-2005 05:00 PM

i am conscened about the NHC saying that Wilma will only be a cat 1 when she hits florida........ that might ease people's feelings and they might not want ot leave as much as they may end up needing to.


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-21-2005 05:04 PM

the 21.15 frame on the water vap. .... if you look beyond the eye...to the overall storm body...you'll see that there is a little motion EASTwards. The storm is not wanting to get over land, and Wilma is not going to follow the many forecasters predictions.

Another hour or two of this...and I'll feel certain. The eye is now stuck...but its the grander picture I believe that tells the real motion right now.


Wilma main thread - mike18xx - 10-21-2005 05:12 PM

soonermeteor Wrote:i am conscened about the NHC saying that Wilma will only be a cat 1 when she hits florida
Are they actually saying that? What a completely irresponsible and unwarranted prediction.

If Wilma continues NW over the tip of the Yucatan and emerges north, it'll be directly a patch of warm water that's been driven against the shore by persistant northeasterly winds. Regardless, the storm's wind-field is expansive and the large eyewall structure will probably maintain itself quite well over land (even if surface wind speeds underneath a shear layer dwindle) prior to re-emergence.

Then, when the storm tracks east, it will cross the Gulf loop current, and likely begin to accelerate (so the eye "catches up", so to speak, with westerly shear aloft); this has the potential of manifesting an environment favorable for strengthening prior to and during landfall in southern Florida or the Keys.

Remember Lenny? It tracked east and strengthened to a cat-4.