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Wilma main thread - GingerStorm - 10-21-2005 05:29 PM

but why would the NHC say it won't hit Fla as more than a cat one? I for one think it's definately gonna hit there... What if the forecasters are just "hoping" for this prediction to come true *of the cane not hitting fla... what are they thinking? and am I wrong with this? I have interpreted a few posts as the NHC saying it won't strike Fla... will someone correct me and tell me what's going on? thanks ya'll Smile


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-21-2005 05:40 PM

At 5:00PM EST the Big Bend is 8% and that is where the CLP5 model has been taking it for the past 3 days. Wouldn't it be something IF it continued on the NNW track abd start the turn about in the middle of the GOM? That would have those at the NHC scratchin like a chicken.


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-21-2005 05:40 PM

GingerJess Wrote:What if the forecasters are just "hoping" for this prediction to come true *of the cane not hitting fla...

there are many of us on this board who bash the NHC (im among them) and i happen to disagree with their analysis of this one so far...but, for all they do, they DON'T base their predictions on something they "hope" will come true...but to my mind they do always err on the side of caution and the fvckin gfs...which is NEVER a prudent thing to do

but they don't base their predictions on hope


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 05:43 PM

That is why they supply a probablity chart on their website.

A 10 percent chance of a cat 4 at landfal, ect....

My opinions are as follows:

I would bet my life on it a cat 4 at landfall will not happen. Upper level (850mb to 200mb heights) indicate around 20 mph whearing winds. The warm water only mean slight gathering of strength as it emerges followed by somwhat rapid weakening. There is no way at all around that.

Even is Wilma misses the tan, it might regain cat 5 status before encountering that 20 mph shear while moving quickly north-easterly entrained in a west to east frontal system. The force acting on it would create the weakening. It cant possibly sustain its winds of more than a mid-ranged catagory 3 storm.

I agree with the National hurricane center with the track to wind ratio's. I do not feel their track will prevail though. I have said it before and ill say it again, Wilma may not move her LARGE eye entirely over land allow the system to not weaken but to a catagory 3-2 before emerging into somwhat favorable conditions to re-intensify to a 3-4 before weakening back to a 2, maybe a weak 3 when hitting FLA.

landfall intensity
Cat 4-5 15 percent
cat 3-2 40 percent
cat 2-1 35 percent
T. Stor 10 percent


Wilma main thread - Ares - 10-21-2005 05:44 PM

GingerJess Wrote:but why would the NHC say it won't hit Fla as more than a cat one?

I have to agree I believe it will by MUCH stronger than a CAT1 at landfall. And I have to say, they are probably trying to keep it as low as they feel they can suggest, so people don't freak out and panic.


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 05:44 PM

have ya'll noticed the northern componet to wilma's movement in the past few hours she should have done made landfall she is resisting the yucatan at all costs very interesting


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 05:47 PM

I notice it bob...

Also, notice the rapid warming in the North East eye-wall...
I am thinking she might re-form her center in that direction
"when a system cant move forward, it moves its center," Dr. Lyons 2002


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-21-2005 06:11 PM

bobbo4554 Wrote:have ya'll noticed the northern componet to wilma's movement in the past few hours she should have done made landfall she is resisting the yucatan at all costs very interesting

Thats prolly a jog since the direction has been to the NW for the past several hours.


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-21-2005 06:14 PM

Alabamaboy Wrote:Thats prolly a jog since the direction has been to the NW for the past several hours.

i agree, for now, with that assessment...remember we need to watch the trends and not the jogs and wobbles...but there does seem to definitely be a more northward component to the motion in the recent past...give this thing six more hours, and if she still has her current motion, i'd call it a trend...and then all bets are off


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 06:16 PM

The past 3 frames or 30 minutes, I observe wilma "Drifting" north north east. I think this could be a result of an eyewall contraction. What do you guys think?