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Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-21-2005 06:18 PM

I actually think the NHC does a VERY good job considering what they have to work worth........ they have been very close with most hurricanes this year, in fact they had katrina nearly dead on. ( im impartial though becuase i hope to work their someday Wink) but the one thing i dissagree with is that they undershoot strength a lot, which can be a little bad.


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-21-2005 06:21 PM

soonermeteor Wrote:I actually think the NHC does a VERY good job considering what they have to work worth........ they have been very close with most hurricanes this year, in fact they had katrina nearly dead on. ( im impartial though becuase i hope to work their someday Wink) but the one thing i dissagree with is that they undershoot strength a lot, which can be a little bad.

first of all, that would make you partial, and secondly, they have had a pretty MISERABLE record this year...they adjust their forecasts every three hours...if you let me do that i'd be pretty spot on too...unfortunately, people need in many cases at least 24-48 hours to evacuate, and their track record at this time frame is sadly lacking...and third, undershooting the strength a lot can be a "little bad"? i'd be fired from my job if i performed that poorly


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-21-2005 06:28 PM

LI Phil Wrote:first of all, that would make you partial, and secondly, they have had a pretty MISERABLE record this year...they adjust their forecasts every three hours...if you let me do that i'd be pretty spot on too...unfortunately, people need in many cases at least 24-48 hours to evacuate, and their track record at this time frame is sadly lacking...and third, undershooting the strength a lot can be a "little bad"? i'd be fired from my job if i performed that poorly

Well I dunno know about the NHC being acurate on Katrina. First they had her going straight across FL into the GOM then after she did her jog to the SW and was entering the GOM they had her going to the Big Bend. But Katrina and Rita both were the easyest two to forecast. At least for me. But I'm no forecaster. just been tracking since Frederick in 79. But what the NHC and everyone else has got to somehow understand is they CAN NOT go on past tracks anymore. This is a new thing now. New day New storm. I have not seen but one that did what they said this year and that was Emily. That in my book was the perfect storm. But that is my 1/2 cent worth.


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 06:30 PM

and if this thing turns people in places like pinellas county which would be under water need time to know to get out. They give "the cone" but people need to know more that hey it'll hit this white area somewhere if thats the case they need to remove the center line. Eventhough they have it hitting Naples im still in the cone.


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-21-2005 06:30 PM

hmm. 22.45 UT water vap.frame.

Definately things are changing now. The eye looks to be a bit flimsy on the NW side - I bet we get an EWC start soon, with a new eye to the right. The southern side of the storm is looking VERY intense still. Wilma is far from weak, and despite all those forecasts...this storm will surprise many who still believe we know even 1% of how storms operate.

next 2 hours will be so intense, and critical.
Meanwhile, those in Coz' are about to feel the wrath of the southern eye wall. Damn, hope they are braced for impact someplace safe.


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 06:36 PM

man the south part of this storm is getting intense again. She will move MW to the coast then shoot N and stay over water she for some reason just does not wanna give up her water.


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 06:40 PM

Wilma is moving NNE. if anyone looks at the past hour of motion, they can relise that.
It might however be a temporary deal or it could be being picked up by the trough in the Gulf right now. Only time will tell.


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-21-2005 06:41 PM

hey hey !
look at this.. The Dvorak loop. Its not something I often look at, but right now it appears to offer better clarity than any of the other loops....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html

The direction is clear, Northwards, with the eye generally escaping the mainland. If you click on 'trop forecast points', with the NHC predicting cat'1, damn, this could really make them look bad.
I realise its a very marginal situation, but then...'we see it', why not the NHC, sigh.
--
oh well, we'll know for sure within the next hour I think. Another 2 frame of this thing moving North..and that'll seal it for me. Then we can move onto the next phase.

Calrissian: surfs up


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 06:43 PM

this is exactly what calrissian was talking about if she keeps this up unless shear rips her apart totally she will be stronger than a 1 when she finally hits florida.


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 06:46 PM

00z Gfdl Model

The Model Now Show Wilma Over The Tan For 12-18 Hours Before Re-emerging Into The Gulf And Re-intensifying To A Cat 4 Cane Making Landfall Near Where Charley Did Last Year Near Cat 3 Intensity. And Emerging Into The Atlantic As A 2 50 Miles South Of Melbourne.