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Wilma main thread - HoumaLA_WXguy - 10-21-2005 06:55 PM

Looks like NNW to me.. definately still has some westward motion to it.

Travis


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-21-2005 06:56 PM

hmm, well, so the GFDL is now almost in line with what many of the 'amateurs' have been saying all day long, lol.
--
When do you think the NHC will start to admit 'hey, it didn't really make landfall on the mainland, and instead managed to stay offshore, hold onto at least a strong cat'3 intensity? Maybe Saturday evening?
---

(interesting little summary blog with pics from Cancun -which looks scary in the recent pics) - http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

Calrissian: Cat'6


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 06:57 PM

000
WTNT34 KNHC 212343
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...CORRECT LONGITUDE IN REPEAT SECTION...

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WILMA MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHERN
END OF COZUMEL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR NEAR THE NORTHERN END
OF THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL.

WILMA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH... 6
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF WILMA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND REMAIN INLAND ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION IN CANCUN REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 133 MPH... 215 KM/HR...BEFORE CONTACT WITH THE STATION
WAS LOST.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. AN AUTOMATED
STATION ON COZUMEL REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 927.4 MB...27.39 INCHES
AROUND 4 PM CDT.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE
KEYS... WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...20.6 N... 86.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Still a 4


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 06:58 PM

20.6 86.9 at 5

3 hours later

20.6 86.9 at 8

hardly seems NW at 4


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 06:59 PM

HoumaLA_WXguy Wrote:Looks like NNW to me.. definately still has some westward motion to it.

Travis

She will move NW right to the coast then shoot north and stay off of it and repeat. She should have made landfall at like 4 and here it is 8 and she has yet to hit the mexican mainland


Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-21-2005 07:06 PM

LI Phil Wrote:first of all, that would make you partial, and secondly, they have had a pretty MISERABLE record this year...they adjust their forecasts every three hours...if you let me do that i'd be pretty spot on too...unfortunately, people need in many cases at least 24-48 hours to evacuate, and their track record at this time frame is sadly lacking...and third, undershooting the strength a lot can be a "little bad"? i'd be fired from my job if i performed that poorly


yah well they told new orleans like 36 hours in advance they were going to get hit, i call that good forecasting. If it wasnt for an F*cked up mayor, they probably could have had nearly no loss of life. Youll find very quickly i get defensive about forecasting.... becuase obviously it is not exact.... but we need it


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 07:07 PM

499
URNT12 KNHC 212322
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/23:11:00Z
B. 20 deg 34 min N
086 deg 45 min W
C. 700 mb 2474 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 222 deg 111 kt
G. 129 deg 031 nm
H. EXTRAP 930 mb
I. 9 C/ 3048 m
J. 17 C/ 3046 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C24
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A WILMA OB 31
MAX FL WIND 119 KT N QUAD 20:01:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-21-2005 07:10 PM

NHC: WILMA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH... 6
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF WILMA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND REMAIN INLAND ON SATURDAY.
---------

No no no no no.
---
Moving 4mph... err, maybe a bit less.
Moving NW. I don't think so.
Will remain inland until Saturday, no.

Q. Do they still expect it to fade to a little teeny Cat'1 by Sunday, lol ?

This is crazy. We have a Cat'4 which is clearly brushing the coast, a storm which the NHC still touts as moving inland for a significant period of time.
--
Its 8pm EST, and frankly...I'm more amazed at what the current 'official forecast' is, than at the fact we have a Cat'4 storm, a 'W' storm in the second haft of October. Please understand, I'm not one for slating the NHC for the sake of it, its just that tomorrow... I feel certain I'm going to be listening to Max Mayfield say 'ohh, Wilma really surprised us'. Meanwhile, I'll be shouting at my screen, along with many others.

Oh well, one hell of a day, and thats coming from someone who only experienced a 'strong 15 mph breeze' today.

Calrissian: windswept


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-21-2005 07:22 PM

okay, I'm content now...
With 3 hours of frames supporting my theory that Wilma is not going to go inland, and will instead will remain a beastly storm, not a declining cat'1.

suggestion... load this up
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html

select ONLY frames from 20.15 UT- until 23.15 (or later). You'll see a definitive 3hr consistant trend. There is no doubt in my mind now. Wilma has survived her close encounter to the mainland, and will move off into the GOM relatively unscathed.
Dare I add a prediction that with sea temps still very warm (28-29c) we shall see her at Cat'5 strength sometime Saturday - much to the dismay of the NHC and the Floridians.

Calrissian: case closed.


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 07:33 PM

I feel more confident as Wilma moves further inland. The NNW-NNE motion was during the eyewall contraction tonight. Now it should move inland and make landfall before midnight tonight.