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Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-21-2005 07:44 PM

hmm, okie.
Well, either way, I'll be glad to get this stage of the storm path done with, I'm exhausted just watching it !
--
yes, the 23.45UT frame shows a somewhat NNW move, but still, we're only talking about the eye skirting the edge of the coast, it certainly looks unlikely for the primary section of Wilma to be over the mainland for 12-18 hours as the NHC predicts.

*that southern segment of the storm sure does look powerful still. If its blowing at 140, am I right in saying the gusts can be as high as 170mph? Although of course, because the storm is moving so slow, this 'endurance' steady storm winds are really going to be the problem for the locals, rather than the odd freaky 170mph gust.

Cal: sleepy, but utterly entranced.


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 07:48 PM

in the last few frames it looks like she is gonna make landfall and pass right over cancun.
Tell me that LBAR dont look like its right on it may always be wrong it looks like it may be right now


Wilma main thread - Alex - 10-21-2005 07:50 PM

Calrissian Wrote:okay, I'm content now...
With 3 hours of frames supporting my theory that Wilma is not going to go inland, and will instead will remain a beastly storm, not a declining cat'1.

suggestion... load this up
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html

select ONLY frames from 20.15 UT- until 23.15 (or later). You'll see a definitive 3hr consistant trend. There is no doubt in my mind now. Wilma has survived her close encounter to the mainland, and will move off into the GOM relatively unscathed.
Dare I add a prediction that with sea temps still very warm (28-29c) we shall see her at Cat'5 strength sometime Saturday - much to the dismay of the NHC and the Floridians.

Calrissian: case closed.

But take a look at the decrease in dark coloring of the northern CDO; that's a definite tell tale sign of land interaction, even though you would think with it skimming the coast and not going completely over (Centerwise) that it would not be as a dramatic of a CDO cloud top warming.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-21-2005 07:57 PM

oh yes, the NW segment of the storm looks significantly affected right now, but still....it seemed likely to suffer some weakening as it skirts the coast.
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LBAR: yes, thats the track I'd draw on a map right now, feels like the one for me. That's Tampa Bay though, isn't it at landfall ? Sad Thing is, at least the LBAR does a gradual turn, rather than that crazy 'hard 90' turn that many other models suggested.

ohh, here is a nice audio feed for you all...
http://ve3nsv.no-ip.org:8000/HurricaneWatchNet-14325.m3u

Its fascinating to hear, maybe we'll get some people from within the eye.

Cal: always open to new ideas


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 08:00 PM

yes Cal the LBAR put us here in the tampa bay area under the gun. I wouldnt be surprised to see watches and warnings to go up for the florida west coast tommorrow sometime.


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 08:02 PM

The following is a link to the latest real time 00Z model run of the GFDL. it has winds and pressure

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005102118-wilma24l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-21-2005 08:05 PM

if that holds true i will get cat I winds at my house at 18Z on monday and actually all of florida south of interstate 4 would see as least Cat I winds.


Wilma main thread - TallahasseeLassie - 10-21-2005 08:06 PM

The LBAR is the path i have felt best about since monday.
I dont think it will go very much more south then that but we will see.
I think the key is if it makes the NE turn RIGHT after it moves north of mexico.
If it waits to long or takes a long smooth turn then it is all about tampa.


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-21-2005 08:08 PM

Bob, if the GFDL model holds true, i will get the eye on the east cost as a strong 2 minimum 3.

I dissagree with the LBAR, however i do feel the system will move sooner then the NHC says and further north.

NHC I think will change their track at 11 to a little faster, strgoner and more northerly.


Also, the latest sat images show a SW job of the eye as it encounters land.


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-21-2005 08:10 PM

hmm.
TY for the link to latest GFDL.
---
That model is now already wrong though. Unless Wilma takes a relatively hard left it will leave the model with a storm that is simply way off the predicted track.

*interesting that the GFDL actually intensifies the storm as it approaches Florida, and yet some here suggested that the storm would generally just weaken as it moves eastward due to the shear. Its an aspect I really don't understand, and Wilma will certainly help to give us a fine example of what happens in such a situation.