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Wilma main thread - Alex - 10-22-2005 12:27 AM

Chris48 Wrote:I got a different weather sat, one that about 40 minutes ahead of what your looking at, real time in a sence. As the eye contracts, the center is moving towards the east. The red dots on the image below is only a halg hour movment but it is due north. The dots represent the center, however it could be the contraction of the center that causes it to appear that way.

I looked at this satellite image earlier, it's url is http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html for anyone else that might be interested. You can zoom in and look at the visible, infrared, water vapor images and loop it as well.

The center has definitely shrunk, and it's just a sign of the interaction with land. Sometimes hurricanes quickly lose their eye; other cases the eyes erode with the intrusion of dry air. A third case occurs where the eye remains some integrity well inland too. There are some examples of a quick eye clouding; I believe that happened with Katrina. So it's not uncommon at the first interaction with land.


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-22-2005 12:30 AM

aaroads Wrote:Are you referring to the cold front that appears to have stalled along the Gulf Coast? Perhaps that's just the wall, and the next front over Kansas is the one to kick it north and east. Thoughts?
Yea that one should be the one to pick her up. But the question is how far N will she be when it picks it up? The sheer is not as strong as they thought. But that front is a strong one because it will drop our temp here down to around 40 by Tuesday night.


Wilma main thread - Alex - 10-22-2005 12:35 AM

Alabamaboy Wrote:Yea that one should be the one to pick her up. But the question is how far N will she be when it picks it up? The sheer is not as strong as they thought. But that front is a strong one because it will drop our temp here down to around 40 by Tuesday night.

Based upon the slowing to 3 mph, I'd say the forward progress is about overwith. The front, while stationary, represents a barrier by which will not allow any more northward movement. The front would have to erode or move northward, creating an eddy in which Wilma would enter, for a northward progression to occur. Otherwise, like you state, that strong front that will drop your temps to 40 is significant in that it's ushered in by a strong Canadian high and will have the punch to overtake the stationary front, and in effect, suck Wilma up ahead of it and shunt it eastward. The northward component there is definitely an unknown.


Wilma main thread - twiztidcabbie - 10-22-2005 12:37 AM

Alabamaboy Wrote:it will drop our temp here down to around 40 by Tuesday night.

you're in mobile, right? i haven't actally looked a local forecast lately. sad huh? is that really how cold it's gonna get down here by tuesday as far as lows? wow...can't wait to use the heater. lol
twiztidcabbie


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-22-2005 12:40 AM

Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 27a


Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on October 22, 2005



...Large eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma over playa del
Carmen on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula...relentessly pounding
Cancun and Cozumel...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Chetumal on
the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from
west of San Felipe to celestun.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the
provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the
Isle of Youth.

All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 20.8 north...longitude 87.2 west over playa del
Carmen Yucatan or about 25 miles...45 km...southwestof Cancun
Mexico.

Wilma has been meandering during the past few hours but is forecast
to move toward the north-northwest near 3 mph...6 km/hr today. On
this track...the core Wilma will be affecting the extreme
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula all day Saturday.

Since the eye is already inland...maximum sustained winds have
probably decreased to near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher gusts.
Wilma remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some addional weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours
while the center of Wilma moves over land.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km. A Mexican Navy automatic station located in
Isla mujeres has been reporting wind gusts to hurricane force
during the past 10 to 12 hours with a maximum wind gust to 108
mph...173 km/hr.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb...27.61 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide
levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves... can be
expected near and to the north of the center along on the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.

Wilma is expected to produce 10 to 20 inches of rain through
Sunday across portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula...
with isolated amounts of 40 inches possible. Outer rainbands will
continue to affect portions of southern Florida... especially the
Keys... producing 2 to 4 inch rainfall amounts through Sunday.

NOAA buoy 42003 in the eastern Gulf of Mexico indicates that large
swells generated by Wilma have propagated well into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. These swells will likely affect portions of the
northern Gulf Coast tonight and Saturday.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...20.8 N... 87.2 W. Movement...
meandering. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central
pressure... 935 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-22-2005 12:44 AM

Just a side note, the GFDL remains consistant on its track at the 0600Z run, but it lifts the system out a bit sooner and faster than before. I just thought that was interesting. This front must be one hell of a thing. Wilma and winter?


Wilma main thread - Alex - 10-22-2005 12:48 AM

Chris48 Wrote:Just a side note, the GFDL remains consistant on its track at the 0600Z run, but it lifts the system out a bit sooner and faster than before. I just thought that was interesting. This front must be one hell of a thing. Wilma and winter?

Well this is the same front in which their was speculation that could absorb Wilma and merge with it as a giant extratropical (perhaps nor'easter) entity. What are the temperature drops behind this system? We are getting close to November, when the highs in the northeast drop into the 40s and 30s for extended periods (after remaining in the 60s and 50s). Those are the same kinds of systems that bring in that mini wave of a severe weather system for the east coast, where the tornado threat increases and such. Also if we think about fronts and hurricanes, remember the fun Hurricane Gordon of November 1994. A cold front robbed the storm of all it's moisture and sent a low level swirl southward to Florida after it came close to moving into eastern NC.


Wilma main thread - HoumaLA_WXguy - 10-22-2005 02:35 AM

Damn.. all of these storms are wiping out all the good party places..


New Orleans, Cancun, Cozumel..

Makes me wonder if God doesn't have an agenda here.. And trust me, I'm not the most holy person in the world either.

Travis


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-22-2005 03:56 AM

Wilma still fairly stationary winds still at 125 mph making her a 3. she is expected to move north today and eventually NE tommorrow so we will see.


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-22-2005 05:17 AM

Here are the latest positions cone error and strike probabilities as of 5:00AM EST by the NHC