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Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-22-2005 05:25 AM

Wilma still looks good on satellite, shes not being tore this way and that so i think she will hold her own. I look for a hurricane watch to be issued today for New Port Richey south to Key West.


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-22-2005 07:27 AM

Good morning/afternoon everyone.
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Well, here we go again, another crazy day of watching Wild Wilma. I awake to find the eye has dissapeared from view, and Wilma has certainly weakened. Yet, the weakening is very minor. We're only talking 145 to 120, barely 15% - that is quite irrelevent, wouldn't you agree?

As I thought, the majority of Wilma has eluded the mainland. Yes, the eye is a little more west than I thought, but still, all things considered this landfall is really not that much of a problem to Wilma.

Wilma will at least 'escape' the Yucatan as a strong Cat'2, and have a good degree of structural intergrity. It certainly did not follow the track that the NHC were talking about as late as 8pm EST night.

*For me, the thought that is on my mind though is just how nightmarish it must be for those in Cancun and Cozumal, they must have experienced 100mph winds for 3-6 hours at least - is that a record?

So, we have a long day ahead of us, and I look forward to hearing the feisty thoughts/opinions about where this fascinating storm may proceed next.

Calrissian: saluting all the net weather-heads.


Wilma main thread - mom2grls72 - 10-22-2005 09:07 AM

It is my understanding that Cozumel had more than 3-6 hours of severe winds..From the post on http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml that website, it sounds like they have had a day of it. That is such a pretty place and now there probably will be nothing left of it. Very sad.

This is interesting though to see how things are going to shape up for this storm.


Wilma main thread - mike18xx - 10-22-2005 09:11 AM

Only a few more miles farther north, and 75% of the outer eyewall will be back over water -- you can rule out further weakening at that point.

[Image: cancunwilma.jpg]


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-22-2005 09:16 AM

i think to be over land as long as she has she still looks great on th sat. images and weakening has not been that drastic. She has held together great over land and itll be interesting to see what happens when she hits the GoM


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-22-2005 09:18 AM

You cant rule out firther weakening, the next 12 to 18 hours are going to be critical for Florida. Wilma should re-emerge as a strong 2 with a core well intact. I agree with the dynamic models witch unanomously make wilma a weak to modest 3 at FLA landfall, but a four once again before weakening induced by shear.


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-22-2005 09:24 AM

Aye. I think there is increasing agreement now over Wilma - after the past day when things were really diverging.
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yes, Wilma will still probably weaken - but its very very marginal. All this time over the land has only knocked off maybe 20% of her strength, certainly not the 40-50% that the NHC used to tout.

*wondering whether Cozumel/Cancun got 2, 3, 4 or more feet of rain so far this storm. Scary stuff.
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Calrissian: Tea and chocolate snack time


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-22-2005 09:45 AM

one thing that we cannot forget (not that anyone who is on these boards would but) wilma holds the record as the STRONGEST hurricane in atlantic basin history...she's barely inland, and that's very swampy and flat terrain she's currently over...she's still got her core in tact and is maintaining cat III status WHILE OVER LAND and barely moving...if she emerges still as a three, i would definitely thing she can reattain cat IV status and threaten florida as a three down the road...

god i hope not, but i don't think that is at all out of the question by any stretch of the imagination


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-22-2005 09:46 AM

You guys see where they initialize her at in the 11? I am surprised.


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-22-2005 09:52 AM

Real quick TD 25 formed by the lesser antilles this morning so by nightfall we may have wilma and Alpha. Astounding truly astounding.