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Wilma main thread - proger - 10-22-2005 09:53 AM

I think this storm is simply amazing, the way it has held together with this much interaction with the land.


P.S. Chris48, read this story before you become an expert on Louisiana, Michael Brown and Katrina


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-22-2005 10:10 AM

Just a note on 'landfall'.
No more than 40% of the storm is/was over land. Wilma never followed the 'fully inland' track that the NHC argued for. This is one reason why all the intensify forecast was naturally wrong.

The eye certainly became less 'distinct', but thats largely not important, what is important is that the feeder bands are still making good use of the warm waters, and thus Wilma is managing to do serious damage to Cancun, and yet not weaken 'that much'.

The 11am storm strength of 115mph...thats still mighty strong though, and even if Wilma weakens another 15-25mph before making it clear to open sea again, its clear she will surely get herself reformed into a strong 4' by late Sunday.

**the NHC has also noted now that up to 50 inches of rain will have occured in some areas. That sure is enough to float a few boats..even in the mountain tops !

Sure is one crazy storm season, with baby Alpha on her way to meet up with Wilma sometimeTuesday.

Calrissian: daring, but certainly 'trying'

Wilma main thread - mike18xx - 10-22-2005 10:13 AM

proger Wrote:I think this storm is simply amazing, the way it has held together with this much interaction with the land.
Only 25% of the outer circulation is over land, and the Yucatan is as flat as a pool table. She'll restrengthen very quickly back over the Yucatan passage.

I'm already detecting the first hint of eastward bias on radar.

Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-22-2005 12:44 PM

well, its 1.41EST. Wilma is still hugging that cosy Cancun area, yet she'll be departing for the USA soon enough. Patience, Floridians.
Have looked at all the loops, and there is certainly renewed strong development in the east and southern quadrants of Wilma. Whether she is currently a Cat'2 or 3, there seems little doubt that once she gets back over clear water...28/29c, we'll once again a strong coherent storm.

Cal: has the x-factor

Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-22-2005 12:56 PM

Wtnt34 Knhc 221755
Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 29a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1 Pm Cdt Sat Oct 22 2005

...wilma Still Inland And Drifting Northward Over Yucatan...
...hurricane Force Winds Have Persisted Over Yucatan For 24 Hours...

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For All Of The Florida Keys...
Including The Dry Tortugas And Florida Bay. A Hurricane Watch
Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch
Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

A Hurricane Watch Will Likely Be Required For Portions Of The
Florida Peninsula This Afternoon. All Interests In The Florida
Peninsula Should Closely Monitor The Progress Of Hurricane Wilma.

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect From San Felipe To Chetumal On
The Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel And The Nearby Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch Remain In Effect From
West Of San Felipe To Celestun.

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Provinces Of La
Habana...ciudad De La Habana...pinar Del Rio...and The Isle Of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect In Cuba For The
Provinces Of Matanzas Westward Through Pinar Del Rio...and For The
Isle Of Youth.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 1 Pm Cdt...1800z...the Center Of Hurricane Wilma Was Located
Near Latitude 21.2 North... Longitude 87.0 West... Just West
Of Cancun Mexico... Or About 400 Miles... 645 Km... Southwest Of
Key West Florida.

Wilma Is Erratically Drifting Northward... And A Continued Slow
Northward Motion Is Expected Today And Tonight. On This Track...
The Core Of Wilma Will Continue To Severely Impact Portions Of The
Extreme Northeastern Yucatan Peninsula Today And Tonight... And
Then Emerge North Of The Peninsula Into The Gulf Of Mexico Tonight
Or Early Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased And Are Now Near 110 Mph...
175 Km/hr... With Higher Gusts. Wilma Is A Category Two Hurricane
On The Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Additional Weakening Is Possible
Today While Wilma Is Over Land... But Some Restrengthening Could
Occur Tonight Or On Sunday Once Wilma Emerges Over The Gulf Of

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles...140 Km...
From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 200 Miles...325 Km. Noaa Buoy 42057 In The Northwestern
Caribbean Sea... About 150 Miles Southeast Of The Center Of
Wilma... Recently Reported Sustained Winds Of 47 Mph... 76 Km/hr.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 953 Mb...28.14 Inches.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 7 To 11 Feet Above Normal Tide
Levels... Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves... Will
Continue Near And To The North Of The Eye Along On The Northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula.

Wilma Is Expected To Produce Additional Rainfall Accumulations Of 10
To 20 Inches Through Sunday Across Portions Of Western Cuba And The
Yucatan Peninsula... With Isolated Maximum Storm Total Amounts
Approaching 50 Inches. Rainfall Across Southern Florida Including
The Keys Through Tuesday Is Expected To Be 4 To 8 Inches... With
Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches Possible.

Large Swells Generated By Wilma Have Propagated Well Into The
Eastern Gulf Of Mexico. These Swells Will Likely Affect Portions
Of The Northern Gulf Coast Today And Tonight.

Repeating The 1 Pm Cdt Position...21.2 N... 87.0 W. Movement...
Drifting Northward. Maximum Sustained Winds...110 Mph. Minimum
Central Pressure... 953 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
4 Pm Cdt.

Forecaster Knabb


Wilma main thread - dav3910 - 10-22-2005 01:15 PM

Cat 2, nice nice but will problay restrenghten once in the GOM. Cat 3 most likely. Any change in the track or is South FL still the target?

Wilma main thread - mike18xx - 10-22-2005 01:24 PM

It's pretty obvious to me from Cancun radar that Wilma's double-eyewall core structure is not only completely intact, but has become healthier-looking since last evening (when the inner eye was barely discernable).

BTW, if she accelerates across southern Florida the way they're predicting, she'll zoom right across without weakening much, and I think Miami is going to get a good, hard, right-flank slap with gusts over 100mph.

Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-22-2005 02:39 PM

well lets not forget that there is more to the yucatan then just cancun........ those people live in little huts deep in ravines........... Sad

Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-22-2005 02:49 PM

huts in ravines, along with 2,3 or 4 feet of rain?
*would not surprise me if some rainfall records are broken with this one, maybe 5 feet in one place, but then it'd have to be estimated since no rain gauge woule measure that much - I assume.
Anyone think the eye/centre is now back offshore?

Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-22-2005 02:52 PM

looks like her center is about back over water.

Sooner-Yes that is very sad and i feel for those people i just hope most of them heeded the warnings so that their homes were the only things that were lost. I hope we dont see a big loss of life from this storm.