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Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-23-2005 12:54 AM

067
URNT12 KNHC 230544
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/05:28:40Z
B. 21 deg 49 min N
086 deg 48 min W
C. 700 mb 2759 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 072 deg 079 kt
G. 342 deg 030 nm
H. 962 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO20-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2024A WILMA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 79 KT N QUAD 05:20:00 Z
INNER EYEWALL IS RAGGED


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-23-2005 12:54 AM

067
URNT12 KNHC 230544
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/05:28:40Z
B. 21 deg 49 min N
086 deg 48 min W
C. 700 mb 2759 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 072 deg 079 kt
G. 342 deg 030 nm
H. 962 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO20-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2024A WILMA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 79 KT N QUAD 05:20:00 Z
INNER EYEWALL IS RAGGED


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-23-2005 02:51 AM

Chris48 Wrote:Anyone know where i can get a wind swath forcast besides hurricale alley? but similar.

Hold on I'll post it.


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-23-2005 03:24 AM

looks like shes wobbling north a bit. Every wobble now makes a huge difference on where she impacts the state. I say she'll hit as a 2/3 and maybe North of the NHC track a bit in any case its about to get very ummmmmmm.......breezy here to say the least.


Wilma main thread - soonermeteor - 10-23-2005 04:14 AM

looks like she is already reformed her eye


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-23-2005 05:51 AM

Center fixes from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that
Wilma is moving slowly northeastward...around 045/03. A large and
strong mid-tropospheric trough...dropping southeastward from the
central United States...will cause the southwesterly steering flow
for Wilma to increase substantially over the next couple of days.
The hurricane is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula within
24-36 hours. Dynamical track guidance continues to show some
spread...with the GFS being the northernmost and north of Lake
Okeechobee....and the NOGAPS near the southern side of the envelope
near the extreme southern Florida Peninsula. The official track
forecast has been shifted just slightly southward and is close to
the model consensus and to the NCEP global ensemble mean.
Air Force recon observations indicate that the inner core of
Wilma...which was disrupted due to its interaction with land...is
becoming slightly better defined. However the eye is still quite
large...about 65 N mi across...and ragged. The central pressure
has not changed much since the hurricane emerged from northeast
Yucatan...and the current intensity of 85 kt is based on peak
flight-level winds of 91 kt to the south of the center...and some
respect for a central pressure of 961 mb. Satellite imagery shows
that the cloud pattern is elongated along a NNE-SSW axis with most
of the deep convection displaced to the north-northeast of the
center. This may be a Harbinger of increasing shear...but it is
assumed that Wilma's inner core will be able to at least
temporarily redevelop...and that some restrengthening will occur
today. However...the global models indicate a substantial increase
in vertical shear will occur as Wilma nears the Florida
Peninsula... which...along with possible entrainment of drier
lower-level air... would lead to weakening. Since the trough
interacting with Wilma is quite strong...the cyclone is forecast to
become extratropical at a relatively low latitude by about 48
hours.
It is important to stress that one should not focus on the exact
forecast track since Wilma has a large wind field and significant
impacts will likely be felt well away from the center.
Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 23/0900z 22.1n 86.6w 85 kt
12hr VT 23/1800z 23.0n 85.5w 90 kt
24hr VT 24/0600z 24.7n 83.3w 85 kt
36hr VT 24/1800z 27.4n 79.5w 65 kt
48hr VT 25/0600z 32.5n 74.5w 60 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 26/0600z 43.0n 66.0w 55 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 27/0600z 47.5n 59.0w 55 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 28/0600z 49.0n 49.0w 55 kt...extratropical


$$


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-23-2005 07:00 AM

Good day all. Woah, forward speed now 8mph !

Wilma has begun her sprint. The question stands, will she manage to hold/increase power whilst crusing to Florida. Hmm. A fascinating day is ahead of us.


Wilma main thread - mavidal - 10-23-2005 08:55 AM

Calrissian Wrote:Good day all. Woah, forward speed now 8mph !

Wilma has begun her sprint. The question stands, will she manage to hold/increase power whilst crusing to Florida. Hmm. A fascinating day is ahead of us.
Easy for you to say! :-)

I'm have to sit here and wait to see how bad it is going to get. The latest GFDL model run has me in the southern eye wall, not looking forward to that as with the angle of approach of this storm, that is going to be the worst side.

I have to go and board up my daughters house now.

Catch ya later.

Mike V


Wilma main thread - ironpirate - 10-23-2005 09:42 AM

I'll be tying down everything that can move all day. Going to fill my boat with as much water as it can hold, and wait it out just like Charlie. I don't wish bad on anyone, but I sure hope it stays south. The Hurricane nerves are starting to set in.


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-23-2005 09:49 AM

we thought wed get by without a hurricane this year but it doesnt look that way and after all we put up with last year. Well ill stay on and keep posting until my power is knocked out or im evacuated(doesn't mean ill go) so good luck and stay safe to all my fellow floridians