Hardcore Weather
Wilma main thread - Printable Version

+- Hardcore Weather (http://hardcoreweather.com)
+-- Forum: Weather (/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: Tropical Weather (/forum-10.html)
+--- Thread: Wilma main thread (/thread-3952.html)



Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-23-2005 02:03 PM

evacuations are as far as i know

Sarasota County- Mandatory mobile homes
Charlotte County (Punta Gorda)- Voluentary for low lying and mobile homes
Lee County (Ft Myers)- Mandatory mobile homes and low areas
Collier County (Naples) same as lee

No evacs for the bay area counties of Hillsborough,Pinellas,Polk,Pasco,Hernando and Manatee.


Wilma main thread - mavidal - 10-23-2005 02:03 PM

I'm not so sure of the north trend. I was looking at the radar loop out of EYW as well as the floater loop, and it looks like it may be a tad south of the next forecast point. Hard to tell since this one has been wobbling so much.

Mike V


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-23-2005 02:10 PM

Here are the latest positions cone error and strike probabilities as of 11:00AM EST by the NHC


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-23-2005 02:18 PM

ohhh I am almost out of the cone!!!! I cant' wait till I am not in it any more at all!

Sooner - you can go to the Emergency Management links I posted in seperate thread and any counties you are curious about go to that linnk and it will tell you about their evacuations. Hope that helps. I have not heard of any evacuations in teh immediate Tampa Bay area. With exceptions of schools open for mobile home residences.


Wilma main thread - mike18xx - 10-23-2005 02:29 PM

Alabamaboy Wrote:Here are the latest positions cone error and strike probabilities as of 11:00AM EST by the NHC
Hah! I *knew* it! Happens every time: storm will move left of NHC forecast until it recurves, at which point it will move right of forecast.

....BTW, has anyone else not forgotten how NE-moving Charlie explosively intensified prior to landfall last year? I sayeth that this thing is going to be intensifying at landfall (meaning that, even if MSW aren't super-dooper, that there will be cat-3 to cat-4ish GUSTS).

The eye will be tightening up, but still very big at landfall, so also expect a very broad storm surge into the Everglades.


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-23-2005 02:32 PM

move left??? like how much more left? I am to the left...can you clarify PLEASE???


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-23-2005 02:36 PM

Question, what does showing tilt from flight level to center exactly mean???


707
URNT12 KNHC 231918
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/19:05:40Z
B. 23 deg 19 min N
085 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2769 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 341 deg 071 kt
G. 260 deg 039 nm
H. 961 mb
I. 13 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3046 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 55
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF304 2124A WILMA OB 27
MAX FL WIND 96 KT S QUAD 17:16:40 Z
SFC CNTR 180 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
CLOUD CURVATURE DEVELOPING WITHIN EYE. STORM SHOWING MORE TILT FROM FLIGHT LEVEL TO SURFACE.


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-23-2005 02:46 PM

mike18xx Wrote:I sayeth that this thing is going to be intensifying at landfall (meaning that, even if MSW aren't super-dooper, that there will be cat-3 to cat-4ish GUSTS).

I'm with ya Mike.
This storm has intensified by 40% over the last 6 hours - well, in terms of 'interesting' clouds/activity on main 4 NHC loops.

Whether it lands as a Cat, 2, 3, 4, or the other one...we do not have long to wait now.

Damn it, to hell with this sitting on the fence nonsense. Lets see this last beast of the year jack it up to a Category 5'. Everyone in Florida has had a whole week to prepare for this. There are no excuses for idiots not being ready or in safe location with food/water and other basics. It remains astounding to me the sight of those utter fools I see on the net feeds who believe this is 'just another little storm'. lol, are they gonna be in for a surprise later tonight/early tomorrow.

This is almost certainly the very tail end of what has been the most intense storm season EVER. Lets not see it go out with a lame little Cat'1, I'm cheering on those beautiful dark blues and purples on the Water vapour loop, begging for that eyewall to close and tighten up....to a masterful little 'pin-hole'.


Calrissian: casting spells, from the safety of England.


Wilma main thread - Llarion - 10-23-2005 02:49 PM

soonermeteor Wrote:katie , bobbo, and anyone else from florida... do you know about any evacuations besides the keys? What are they doing in Naples, Ft. Myers, and even the Tampa Bay area?

Mandatory evacs form Sarasota County south. No evac orders in Pinellas or Hillsborough. Not sure about Manatee evacs. Schools and govt offices closed in the entire Tampa Bay viewing area Monday.


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-23-2005 02:59 PM

Back to the weather it looks like she is trying to form an eye again and get her symmetry it also looks like shes moving ever so north of the NHC points so we'll see where landfall will be i still say at or just south of sarasota.