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Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-23-2005 03:05 PM

And there are the tornado watches....

And about that wishing for a strong storm thing. I live in fla, same area that for the 2 and 3 of last year, i dont care what people have to say, I just know i would never wishforcast somthing like that onto somone.


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-23-2005 03:15 PM

Spc Ww 231941
Urgent - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Tornado Watch Number 836
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
340 Pm Edt Sun Oct 23 2005

The Nws Storm Prediction Center Has Issued A
Tornado Watch For Portions Of

Southern And Central Florida
Coastal Waters

Effective This Sunday Afternoon And Monday Morning From 340 Pm
Until 100 Am Edt.

Tornadoes...hail To 0.5 Inch In Diameter...thunderstorm Wind Gusts
To 70 Mph...and Dangerous Lightning Are Possible In These Areas.

The Tornado Watch Area Is Approximately Along And 145 Statute
Miles Either Side Of A Line From 45 Miles Southeast Of Avon Park
Florida To 55 Miles West Southwest Of Fort Meyers Florida. For A
Complete Depiction Of The Watch See The Associated Watch Outline
Update (wous64 Kwns Wou6).

Remember...a Tornado Watch Means Conditions Are Favorable For
Tornadoes And Severe Thunderstorms In And Close To The Watch Area.
Persons In These Areas Should Be On The Lookout For Threatening
Weather Conditions And Listen For Later Statements And Possible
Warnings.

Discussion...threat Appears To Be Increasing Attm For Minisupercells
With Tornadoes As Outermost Confluence Bands Associated With Hrcn
Wilma Approach Eyw. Threat May Also Increase This Evening For Low
Level Rotation In Isolated Storms Now Forming In Heated Environment
Over Srn Parts Of The Fl Peninsula...where Low Level Shear Likely
Will Substantially Increase.

An Additional Watch Likely Will Be Required Later This Evening To
Cover E Cntrl Fl...and To Extend Watch Coverage Into Later Monday
Morning Across S Fl.

Aviation...tornadoes And A Few Severe Thunderstorms With Hail
Surface And Aloft To 0.5 Inch. Extreme Turbulence And Surface Wind
Gusts To 60 Knots. A Few Cumulonimbi With Maximum Tops To 450.
Mean Storm Motion Vector 18045.


...corfidi


Wilma main thread - mavidal - 10-23-2005 03:20 PM

Chris48 Wrote:And there are the tornado watches....

And about that wishing for a strong storm thing. I live in fla, same area that for the 2 and 3 of last year, i dont care what people have to say, I just know i would never wishforcast somthing like that onto somone.

Chris:

You want to know what is funny, the wishcasters I don't believe have ever been through a stong hurricane. I sure has hell don't wishcast anything like this on anybody.

Having been through 8 or 9 hurricanes in my life, I can tell you they are not a fun experience at all.

Man, I just spent over $100 on gas to fill up the cars, the jerry cans for the generator etc. This is an expense I can do without, and I have had to do this already for Katrina, Rita and now Wilma, not to mention the economic impact on my business, since I in essence get shut down till power comes back.

I really want this thing to stay at a cat 2 or less. I don't need to go through anything stronger, and I don't think any of us in FL want to go through anythng stronger than that.

Mike V


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-23-2005 03:23 PM

mavidal Wrote:Chris:

You want to know what is funny, the wishcasters I don't believe have ever been through a stong hurricane. I sure has hell don't wishcast anything like this on anybody.

Having been through 8 or 9 hurricanes in my life, I can tell you they are not a fun experience at all.

Man, I just spent over $100 on gas to fill up the cars, the jerry cans for the generator etc. This is an expense I can do without, and I have had to do this already for Katrina, Rita and now Wilma, not to mention the economic impact on my business, since I in essence get shut down till power comes back.

I really want this thing to stay at a cat 2 or less. I don't need to go through anything stronger, and I don't think any of us in FL want to go through anythng stronger than that.

Mike V

Amen brother!!!! I hear ya! And not to mentino the cost after the storm...insurance deductions, clean up cost, out of work costs, losing food and having to restock fridge costs! I hear you completely on this topic!


Wilma main thread - mavidal - 10-23-2005 03:27 PM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml

The link above is to the EYW radar, you can start to see the eye. Last report on local news, pressure to 961Mb, eye was 50 miles wide.

Mike V.


Wilma main thread - mavidal - 10-23-2005 03:28 PM

NBC6 down here just showed a huge waterspout off of key west.

Mike V


Wilma main thread - mavidal - 10-23-2005 03:30 PM

katiebuglj Wrote:Amen brother!!!! I hear ya! And not to mentino the cost after the storm...insurance deductions, clean up cost, out of work costs, losing food and having to restock fridge costs! I hear you completely on this topic!

Katie, I don't know what your insurance deductable is, but if I got major damage, I would be out about $15,000 to fix up the house.

Guess what, I don't have that kind of cash laying around, I would have to get an SBA or FEMA loan.

People have no idea how expensive these things can be.

Mike V


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-23-2005 03:55 PM

627
URNT12 KNHC 232053
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/20:30:10Z
B. 23 deg 34 min N
085 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2760 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 144 deg 088 kt
G. 044 deg 052 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 8 C/ 3055 m
J. 15 C/ 3048 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C45
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF304 2124A WILMA OB 32
MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 17:16:40 Z


Wilma main thread - Calrissian - 10-23-2005 04:02 PM

woo hoo
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.
---
even the NHC are now touting CAt'3 as a distinct possiblity as Wilma approaches the Florida coast.
--
Any fool looking at the various loops can see that the wrap around the eye is now 75% , its looking like Wilma is having another attempt to be remembered.


Wilma main thread - mavidal - 10-23-2005 04:03 PM

Chris48 Wrote:Question, what does showing tilt from flight level to center exactly mean???

To answer your question, what this means is that the winds at the surface are stronger than at flight level, per the NHC, Max Mayfield.

Mike V.