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Wilma main thread - mike18xx - 10-23-2005 07:37 PM

mike18xx Wrote:Prediction: Rapidly intensifying 125mph at landfall around Naples with freaky gusts over the keys in excess of 150mph (and to 100+ in Miami).
From the rapidly-inproving look of the eyewall on Keys radar, it could easily be 10-15mph more than that at landfall.
Quote:There will be a slight right-ward tug as Alpha slingshots up the east side and induces a brief Fujiwara-ish interaction until it pulls away up ahead of the trough.
This ENE-ward movement appears to be happening already, and will take the center more toward the Keys than Naples.


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-23-2005 07:50 PM

Hurricane Local Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin Fl
830 Pm Edt Sun Oct 23 2005

...hurricane Wilma Gradually Accelerating Toward Extreme Southwest
Florida And Continuing On Track For A Morning Landfall...

...new Information...
The Tornado Threat Continues With Reports Of Exploding
Transformers And Flying Debris In Mulberry. A Tornado Watch
Continues In Effect For All Of West Central Florida From Citrus
County Southward Until 1 Am. The Greatest Threat During The Next
Several Hours Will Be From Tampa Bay Northward With A Second Band Of
Thunderstorms Affecting Lee And Charlotte Counties. Any Tornadoes
Will Be Fast Moving.

...areas Affected...
This Statement Is For All Residents Of West Central And Southwest
Florida

...watches And Warnings...
A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For The Coastline And Tidal
Shorelines Of Lee...charlotte...desoto...and Sarasota Counties.

An Inland Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For Non Coastal Or Non Tidal
Locations Of Lee...charlotte...desoto...hardee...highlands And
Sarasota Counties.

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Coastline And Tidal
Shorelines Of Manatee...pinellas...hillsborough...pasco...hernando
Citrus And Levy Counties.

An Inland Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For Non Coastal Or
Non Tidal Locations Of Manatee...pinellas...hillsborough...polk...
Pasco...hernando...citrus...sumter And Levy Counties.

A Flash Flood Watch Remains In Effect For Charlotte And Lee Counties
Through Monday Afternoon.

...storm Information...
At 8 Pm Edt...the Center Of Hurricane Wilma Was Located Near
Latitude 23.9 North...longitude 84.4 West Or About 225 Miles
Southwest Of Fort Myers And 275 Miles Southwest Of Tampa.
Wilma Was Moving To The Northeast At 15 Mph...and The Gradual
Increase In Forward Speed Will Continue.

...wind Impacts...
Dangerous Winds Are Expected Late Tonight And Early Monday In
Lee County And Possibly Charlotte...desoto...and Highlands County

Winds Will Rapidly Increase To Tropical Storm Force In The
Coastal Waters Between 9 Pm And Midnight South Of Englewood...and
Between 11 Pm And 2 Am South Of Tarpon Springs. The Latest Track
Will Bring Tropical Storm Force Gusts Onshore In Lee And Charlotte
Counties Around Midnight...with Sustained Tropical Storm Force Winds
And Hurricane Force Gusts In Squalls By 3 Am. A Brief Period Of
Sustained Hurricane Force Winds...75 To 80 Mph...is Expected
Between 6 And 9 Am. Because Wilma Is Expected To Maintain At
Least High Category 2 Strength While Accelerating Inland...gusts To
100 Mph Are Possible In Stronger Squalls.

Farther North In The Hurricane And Inland Hurricane Warning Areas...
Sustained Tropical Storm Force Winds With Possible Hurricane Force
Gusts Should Arrive By 4 Am...with The Highest Winds...50 To 65 Mph
With Gusts Of 75 To 85 Mph...between 7 And 10 Am...perhaps Up To 11
Am In Highlands County.

In The Tampa Bay Area And Points North Through Hernando County...
Tropical Storm Force Sustained Winds Should Arrive Around Or Soon
After 5 Am...with The Highest Winds...40 To 50 Mph With Gusts Up To
65 Mph...expected Between 7 Am And 12 Pm.

Impacts For Charlotte And Lee County Include:

Poorly Constructed Or Unsecured Mobile Homes Will Be Heavily Damaged
Or Destroyed. Others Will Have Substantial Damage To Roofs...walls...
And Windows...and Will Likely Be Uninhabitable Until Repaired.
Houses Of Poor To Average Construction Will Have Partial Wall And
Roof Failure...as Well As Blown Out Windows. Most Lanai Screens And
Pool Cages Will Have Damage...some Will Be Destroyed. Unsecured Light
To Moderate Weight Outdoor Items Will Become Projectiles...causing
Additional Damage And Perhaps Injury. Many Areas Will Have Power
Outages...hundreds Of Wires Will Fall...transformers Will Pop...and
Some Power Poles Will Be Pulled Down.

Rotting Large Trees Will Be Uprooted...most Common On Saturated
Ground. Numerous Large Branches Of Healthy Trees Will Snap...and
Moderate Damage Is Expected In Citrus Orchards. Up To One Half
Of Newly Planted Crops Will Be Damaged.

Impacts For Sarasota...desoto...highlands...and Hardee County
Include:

Older Mobile Homes Will Experience Moderate To Substantial Damage.
Some Of Poor Construction Will Be Uninhabitable Until Repaired.
Houses Of Poor To Average Construction Will Have Damage To Shingles
...siding...and Gutters. Some Windows Will Be Blown Out. Many
Lanai Screens And Pool Cages Will Be Damaged. Unfastened Home
Items Of Light To Moderate Weight Will Become Airborne...causing
Additional Damage And Possible Injury. Dozens Of Wires Will Be
Blown Down. Local Power Outages Will Affect Entire Neighborhoods.

Many Large Branches Of Healthy Trees Will Be Snapped...and Rotting
Small To Medium Sized Trees Will Be Uprooted. Dozens Of Palm Fronds
Will Be Blown Down...and Minor Damage Will Occur To Citrus Groves
And Newly Planted Lowland Crops.

Impacts For The Tampa Bay And Lakeland Areas Include:

Minor Damage Will Occur To Many Mobile Homes. Poorly Constructed
Homes May Receive Some Wall Damage And Partial Roof Removal. A
Few Houses May Have Minor Damage To Roof Shingles And Siding. A
Few Pool Cages And Lanai Screens Will Be Damaged. Unsecured Light
Weight Items May Become Projectiles...causing Additional Damage.
Some Electrical Wires Will Be Blown Down...and Local Power Outages
Are Likely.

Most Newly Planted Trees And Shrubs Will Be Damaged Or Uprooted.
Some Rotting Small Trees Will Be Uprooted...and Rotten Large
Branches Will Snap. Numerous Small Twigs Will Separate From Trees.
A Few Palm Fronds Will Be Blown Down.

...surge Impacts...
Tides Continue Running Around A Half Foot Above Normal At Gaging
Points From The Tampa Bay Area South Early This Afternoon. Tidal
Departures Will Vary Greatly By Late Tonight And Monday...highly
Dependent On The Track Of The Center Of Wilma. Based On The Current
Track The Greatest Threat Of Storm Surge Is South Of Lee County.

However...as Wilma Approaches...tides Should Rise Ahead Of The
Arrival...including Locations Just To The Northwest Of The Track.
Thus...tidal Departures May Range Up To 2 Feet Above Normal
Overnight In Charlotte And Lee Counties...and Up To 1 Foot Above
Normal Elsewhere...before Winds Turn More North Or Northeasterly
And Evacuate Water From Many Of These Areas.

Tides May Rise Once Again Monday Afternoon Along West Facing
Beaches Of Lee County...including Bonita Beach...fort Myers
Beach...and The North End Of Sanibel And Southwest Portion Of Pine
Island. Storm Tides Could Reach 4 Feet Or Higher...which May
Produce Run Up...overwash...or Minor Nuisance Flooding.

Please Note That Any Slight Northward Shift In The Track Will Greatly
Increase The Threat For Minor To Moderate Storm Surge Flooding In
Lee County.

...flood Impacts...
Rainfall Amounts This Afternoon Have Been In The 1 To 2 Inch Range
With Higher Localized Amounts. Bands Of Showers And Thunderstorms
Will Continue To Move Across The Region Tonight. These Rains May
Produce Locally Heavy Rainfall Amounts Across West Central And
Southwest Florida. Minor Flooding Of Low Lying Areas Will Be
Possible.

The Threat Of Flooding Will Increase Tonight Through Monday
As Bands Of Heavy Rain From Hurricane Wilma Overspread The Area.
Rainfall Overnight Will Generally Range From 1 Inch In Levy County...
1 To 2 Inches With Locally 3 Inches In Heavier Bands From Tampa To
Lakeland And Points North...2 To 4 Inches With Locally 5 Inches
Elsewhere North Of Charlotte And Lee County...and 3 To 5 Inches With
Locally 6 Inches In Charlotte And Lee Counties...where A Flash Flood
Watch Is In Effect.

Area Rivers Remain Well Below Flood Stage Early This Afternoon.
Heavy Rain May Produce Minor Flooding On The Manatee River Late
Monday...and On The Peace And Little Manatee Rivers By Midweek.
However...no Significant River Flooding Is Expected At This Time.

...next Statement...
The Next Hurricane Local Statement For Hurricane Wilma Will Be Issued
From The National Weather Service Office In Ruskin Around 1115 Pm
Edt.


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-23-2005 07:50 PM

one word, lopsided. this would discribe the eratic almost due east motion during the past 45 minutes. hoever the past 15 minutes indicate a resumed NE track. think of a spinning top, put weight on one side and which way does it go. that the example given by the NHC a few years ago.


Wilma main thread - Ares - 10-23-2005 07:54 PM

I just took this screenshot and have put a few wind tags around the eye, and an info table for you to look at


Wilma main thread - Llarion - 10-23-2005 07:59 PM

The water vapor loop of a moment ago is suggesting a slightly more E jog... South of Naples, into the 'Glades a bit... That would be nicer, since it appears that the Jet will not get down far enough south for the shear to seriously kick in before landfall... So, go south let it hit the glades,a nd at least when it hits Miami, it will he hauling booty, minimizing the time of exposure...

*crossing fingers and toes and praying everyone is alright*


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-23-2005 08:00 PM

I bet a thousand dollars, a 3 at 11

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
WILMA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...
255 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM... SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE WILMA
IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
NNNN


Wilma main thread - tgenius - 10-23-2005 08:00 PM

Llarion Wrote:The water vapor loop of a moment ago is suggesting a slightly more E jog... South of Naples, into the 'Glades a bit... That would be nicer, since it appears that the Jet will not get down far enough south for the shear to seriously kick in before landfall... So, go south let it hit the glades,a nd at least when it hits Miami, it will he hauling booty, minimizing the time of exposure...

*crossing fingers and toes and praying everyone is alright*

Uh.. I'm in Miami..so sorry.. I don't want that path!


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-23-2005 08:14 PM

If your from Naples to Tampa keep a close eye on this radar

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml

I expect it to be around 120mph by 11pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


Wilma main thread - tgenius - 10-23-2005 08:16 PM

ROLLTIDE Wrote:If your from Naples to Tampa keep a close eye on this radar

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml

I think its going south of Naples ROLLTIDE... especially with that lil ENE jog...Sad


Wilma main thread - Natasha - 10-23-2005 08:18 PM

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The forecasters shouldn't have downgraded the storm to a cat 1, possible cat 2. Now its a cat 3 and there are many people in south Florida that don't even want to be here. The people in Naples must be panicking.