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Wilma main thread - dav3910 - 10-18-2005 12:08 AM

Is that NE hook for certain? It seems every track is going by it.


Wilma main thread - Alabamaboy - 10-18-2005 12:55 AM

dav3910 Wrote:Is that NE hook for certain? It seems every track is going by it.

Nothing is certain but acording to the models it is. But it's still too early to tell where its going to go. When this thing origanaly started last week it was to go up into the big bend. Katrina was suppose to come across Fl into the GOM and make a right turn into the big bend into GA. But look where it went. Just because the models are saying its going near Tampa does not mean none of the rest of the GOM is safe. I still say and will say until it does the sharp turn that they say that it will be a NGOM storm.


Wilma main thread - Daniel294 - 10-18-2005 01:01 AM

Tropical Storm Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 10a

Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on October 18, 2005


...Wilma barely moving...


a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.


A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 2 am EDT...0600z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was
located near latitude 15.7 north...longitude 80.0 west or about
260 miles... 420 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about
215 miles... 345 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
Nicaragua/Honduras border.


Wilma has barely moved for the past several hours but a general
motion to the west is expected today followed by a gradual turn
toward the west-northwest. However...steering currents remain weak
and erratic motion is possible during the next 24 hours.


Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph...100 km/hr... with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Wilma could become a hurricane later today.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles... 110 km
from the center.


Latest minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 984 mb...29.06 inches.


Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches
over the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and southeastern
Cuba...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10
inches...are possible over Honduras.


Repeating the 2 am EDT position...15.7 N... 80.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 65 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 984 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.


Forecaster Avila


$$


Wilma main thread - Joey - 10-18-2005 01:16 AM

Goodness, I've been driving back and forth for hours everyday to clear out my home, and now this? What a season, eh...? :frown:


Wilma main thread - cpa1225 - 10-18-2005 01:20 AM

Joey Wrote:Goodness, I've been driving back and forth for hours everyday to clear out my home, and now this? What a season, eh...? :frown:

eh.


eyyyy, joeyyyy. sit on it.


Wilma main thread - Joey - 10-18-2005 01:22 AM

Haha, too much to be sitting on. I would like it if it just keeps going on west... Forget the turns and blah...


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-18-2005 05:11 AM

Tropical Storm Wilma Discussion Number 11


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 18, 2005



there are several indicators suggesting that Wilma is strengthening.
The pressure has fallen to 982 mb. The cloud pattern consists of
very deep convection near the center with banding features...and
the outflow has continued to become more symmetrical. T-numbers
from TAFB and SAB are 4.0 on the Dvorak scale...suggesting that
Wilma is a hurricane. In addition...two microwave passages from
different satellites show an eye feature. However...wind
observations from the Air Force plane do not support winds higher
than 60 knots at this time. Given the conditions of light shear and
very warm ocean...strenghtening is indicated. The official
intensity forecast is between the GFDL and the SHIPS models. Wilma
is expected to become an intense hurricane in the northwestern
caribean sea...typical of those hurricanes which commonly occurred
in October during the 30's 40's and 50's. This is nothing new.
Wilma has barely moved for the past several hours. Despite models
showing a weakening of the anticylone over the Gulf of Mexico...
this feature is still there and strong...blocking the motion of
Wilma. It is still fresh in my memory that...in 1998 with a similar
steering pattern...all models moved hurricane Mitch northward and
the hurricane indeed moved southward. However...dynamical models
have improved a lot since then and the confidence is higher. The
anticyclone in the Gulf is forecast to weaken as a large trough
sweeps eastward across the United States...and the Atlantic
subtropical ridge is also forecast to build. This should result in
a slow west to northwest motion of Wilma during the next 2 to 3
days...toward the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter...
Wilma will be approaching the westerlies and recurvature with an
increase in forward speed is forecast. This is consistent with the
guidance envelope which shows a hurricane moving either over the
Yucatan Channel or western Cuba and then over the southern half of
the Florida penisula between days 4 and 5. Remember...there is a
large variability and large errors associated with the 4 and 5 day
forecasts. So at this time stay tune and monitor closely the
progress of this hurricane.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 18/0900z 15.7n 80.0w 60 kt
12hr VT 18/1800z 15.8n 80.4w 70 kt
24hr VT 19/0600z 16.6n 81.4w 80 kt
36hr VT 19/1800z 17.3n 82.4w 90 kt
48hr VT 20/0600z 18.6n 84.0w 100 kt
72hr VT 21/0600z 21.1n 85.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 22/0600z 23.0n 84.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 23/0600z 26.5n 80.0w 80 kt...inland


Wilma main thread - Llarion - 10-18-2005 06:05 AM

Well, bad for south Florida, but Tampa Bay is looking a little better. (I won't sigh in relief yet...) Why are the models showing such acceleration after she makes the easterly turn? Is the tip of that cold front that stretches from NY to AK going to baseball bat her out to sea? I assume the stationary front over the keys would have to slide east for Wilma to duck on the more southerly track that's been implied in the last model run?


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-18-2005 07:50 AM

[Image: storm_24.gif]
[Image: 231353W_sm.gif]


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-18-2005 07:53 AM

Well, it does look better for Tampa but, I think she is still too far out for us to say Tampa is in the clear. As long as Tampa is in the cone - I will be keeping an eye on her. Once we are in the clear - I will sigh and thank God we weren't affected.

Jeffie poo - if you are lurking.....get your new camera ready - I expect a copy of this film since you cant seem to send me the Charley one.