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Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-24-2005 01:05 AM

Zczc Miatceat4 All
Ttaa00 Knhc Ddhhmm
Hurricane Wilma Tropical Cyclone Position Estimate
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
2 Am Edt Mon Oct 24 2005

At 2 Am Edt...0600z... The Center Of The Large Eye Of Hurricane
Wilma Was Located Near Latitude 25.1 North...longitude 82.7 West Or
About 70 Miles West-northwest Of Key West Florida And About 95 Miles
Southwest Of Naples Florida.

Key West Recently Reported Sustained Winds Of 67 Mph With Gusts To
75 Mph.

Forecaster Pasch

$$
Nnnn


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-24-2005 01:20 AM

821
URNT12 KNHC 240615
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/05:54:00Z
B. 25 deg 02 min N
083 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2716 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 059 deg 080 kt
G. 309 deg 024 nm
H. 955 mb
I. 11 C/ 3049 m
J. 15 C/ 3046 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C60
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 33
MAX FL WIND 112 KT SW QUAD 04:11:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C, 301 / 14NM


Wilma main thread - Daniel294 - 10-24-2005 02:09 AM

Winds up to 120...

Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 35b

Statement as of 3:00 am EDT on October 24, 2005

...Wilma slightly stronger...headed for the southwest coast of
Florida...


a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida
Keys... including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay...along the
Florida West Coast from Longboat Key southward... and along the
Florida East Coast from Titusville southward... including Lake
Okeechobee.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West
Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river...and along the
Florida East Coast north of Titusville to St. Augustine.


A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the northeast coast
of Florida from north of St. Augustine to Fernandina Beach.


A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane
Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas. These warnings
and watches will likely be later this morning.


A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwestern
Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...
Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

The previous position estimate was a little too far to the east.
At 3 am EDT...0700z...the large eye of Hurricane Wilma was
located near latitude 25.1 north... longitude 82.8 west or about
75 miles west-northwest of Key West Florida and about 95 miles
southwest of Naples Florida.


Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph... and a continued
increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On
this track the center will make landfall along the southwestern
coast of the Florida Peninsula later this morning. However...this
is a large hurricane and wind gusts to hurricane force have already
spread over portions of the lower Florida Keys. The eastern
portion of the eyewall... accompanied by the strongest winds...
will reach the southwestern coast of Florida about 2 hours before
the center of the large eye makes landfall.


Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...with higher gusts. Wilma
is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. No
significant change in strength is expected until landfall. Some
weakening is likely as Wilma crosses the southern Florida Peninsula
today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 230 miles. A wind gust to 76 mph was recently reported at Key
West.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb...28.17 inches.


Storm surge flooding of 9 to 17 ft above normal tide levels is
possible along the southwest Florida coast near and to the
south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge
flooding of 5 to 8 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay... as well as in Lake Okeechobee. Storm surge
flooding of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern
coast of Florida.


Wilma may produce additional rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10
inches through today across portions of western Cuba. Rainfall
across southern Florida and portions of central Florida...
including the Florida Keys is expected to be 4 to 8 inches... with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches will be possible over portions of the northwest
Bahamas.


Large swells generated by Wilma will continue to affect portions of
the northeastern Gulf Coast from the Florida Keys northward today.

Some tornadoes are possible over portions of the central and
southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys this morning.

Repeating the 3 am EDT position...25.1 N... 82.8 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...120 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 954 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.


Forecaster Pasch


$$


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-24-2005 02:22 AM

WILMA CAT 4

421
URNT12 KNHC 240711
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/06:59:30Z
B. 25 deg 08 min N
082 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2695 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 222 deg 135 kt
G. 124 deg 046 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 8 C/ 3056 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C65
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 39
MAX FL WIND 135 KT SE QUAD 06:45:40 Z
SOME LIGHTNING VISIBLE IN NW EYEWALL
135 * 1.15 = 156MPH FLIGHT LEVEL
156 * .9 (ASSUMED 90 PERCENT) = 140 MPH


Wilma main thread - max2 - 10-24-2005 02:29 AM

Chris48 Wrote:WILMA CAT 4

421
URNT12 KNHC 240711
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/06:59:30Z
B. 25 deg 08 min N
082 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2695 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 222 deg 135 kt
G. 124 deg 046 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 8 C/ 3056 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C65
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 39
MAX FL WIND 135 KT SE QUAD 06:45:40 Z
SOME LIGHTNING VISIBLE IN NW EYEWALL
135 * 1.15 = 156MPH FLIGHT LEVEL
156 * .9 (ASSUMED 90 PERCENT) = 140 MPH


Please please Chris48 tell me your kidding me.

Is this offical ?


Wilma main thread - HoumaLA_WXguy - 10-24-2005 02:32 AM

Where did that info come from? From looking at Dvorak imagery.. I have a hard time believing that it's a cat 4 cane.

Travis


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-24-2005 02:33 AM

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC

PROVIDED VIA THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
you can also find it on the NHC webpage under recon under vortex messages.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?


Wilma main thread - max2 - 10-24-2005 02:34 AM

HoumaLA_WXguy Wrote:Where did that info come from? From looking at Dvorak imagery.. I have a hard time believing that it's a cat 4 cane.

Travis

Me too but the cloud tops are a lot darker now on the western side right now. If it wraps around before landfall, don't think it will or expect it to, then that would be really bad.


Wilma main thread - HoumaLA_WXguy - 10-24-2005 02:36 AM

Agreed.. Man, this is horrible.. Sad Those poor people in FL are going to wake up to something nasty on thier doorstep. A lot of them didn't evacuate either..


Wilma main thread - Chris48 - 10-24-2005 02:37 AM

950 can support 120 kt winds around 140 mph.

Go to those sites i posted, one being the NHC, that doesnt lie period, that is the reading they got. Florida, I/we are dealing with an intensifing cat 3/4 hurricane at landfall.