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Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-18-2005 07:56 AM

don't want to alarm you needlessly, katie, but look at the gfdl

[Image: at200524_model.gif]


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-18-2005 07:57 AM

Yeah, I know that is why I say as long as we are in the cone - Iwill watch her - and just hope she takes a turn for the South.


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-18-2005 08:27 AM

That GFDL is what im looking at that model for some reason is still eyeing tampa since yesterday morning. I dont like it.


Wilma main thread - HoumaLA_WXguy - 10-18-2005 09:02 AM

A hit to Tampa would be devestating... probably just as bad as New Orleans was.. Sad

Travis


Wilma main thread - The Bug - 10-18-2005 09:05 AM

Travis you are right especially if it was a strong storm with Cat 4 or 5 storm surge but....at least the water will go back out unlike NO....that would be the only saving grace in T.B. They have the potential for a lot of damage from storm surge but, the waters will go back down after the fact. But, a storm coming up into the bay (as it sits liek a pitchers glove) ... wouldn't be pretty.


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-18-2005 09:09 AM

296
URNT12 KNHC 180614
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/05:56:30Z
B. 15 deg 40 min N
079 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1278 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 241 deg 065 kt
G. 152 deg 009 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 15 C/ 1530 m
J. 23 C/ 1521 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0424A WILMA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 65 KT SE QUAD 05:53:30 Z
RADAR PRESENTATION POOR DUE TO ATTENUATION


Wilma main thread - LI Phil - 10-18-2005 09:14 AM

wilma is going to be BAD news for florida...right now one of my sources is predicting a landfall at 23/06Z - 0200E - at N. Captiva Island with winds at 90 knots gusting to 110 knots. Exit at 23/16Z - 1200E - at Indian River Shores with winds at 75 knots gusting to 90 knots (Cat I).

this means, if verified, that wilma will stay a hurricane across the entire state of florida

everyone had better be preparing NOW if you live within 100 miles on either side of N. Captiva Island.


Wilma main thread - bobbo4554 - 10-18-2005 09:29 AM

Yeah i dont thnik she will be as far south as Naples. I say landfall will be between the NHC track and the GFDL model in either cas i guess i better get ready for a windy saturday.


Wilma main thread - ROLLTIDE - 10-18-2005 09:29 AM

Wilma is now a Cane !


Wilma main thread - HoumaLA_WXguy - 10-18-2005 09:34 AM

katiebuglj Wrote:Travis you are right especially if it was a strong storm with Cat 4 or 5 storm surge but....at least the water will go back out unlike NO....that would be the only saving grace in T.B. They have the potential for a lot of damage from storm surge but, the waters will go back down after the fact. But, a storm coming up into the bay (as it sits liek a pitchers glove) ... wouldn't be pretty.

Water would probably come in as far as Dale Mabry... I have a buddy that lives off of Hillsbourough (sp?)

Travis