Mobile, AL

[LI Phil]

Yeah, Rollie, where's the snow?

[ROLLTIDE]

.a Freeze Warning Is In Effect Tonight For The Coastal Portion Of The Coastal Counties & A Hard Freeze Warning Is In Effect For The Remainder Of The Area.

.brisk No. Winds Will Usher In The Coldest Air Of The Season For Tonight.& Possibly The Remainder Of The Year. Overnight Low Temps Will Range From The Upper Teens Across The Far Inland Portion Of Sw Al & Se Ms.to Around 30 Near The Immediate Coast. This Will Likely Result In A Hard Freeze Over All But The Immediate Coastal Areas.where A Light Freeze Will Occur.

Alz063-064-flz002-004-006-151500-
Coastal Escambia-coastal Okaloosa-coastal Santa Rosa-lwr Baldwin- Lwr Mobile- Including The Cities Of.dauphin Island.destin.
Fort Walton Beach.navarre & Pensacola
415 Am Cst Tue Dec 14 2004

.a Freeze Warning Is In Effect Tonight.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Al Has Issued A Freeze Warning. Low Temps Tonight Will Fall Into The Mid To Upper Twenties Across The Area.except For Around Thirty Near The Immediate Coast. A Freeze Warning Is Issued When The Temp Is Forecast To Be 32 Degrees Or Below Over A Widespread Area For More Than One Hour. Agricultural Interests In The Warned Area Are Advised To Harvest Or Protect Tender Vegetation. Other Interests With Cold Sensitive Plants Or Animals.or With Other Concerns Related To Freezing Temps.should Finalize Their Protective Measures Now. If You Have Not Already Done So.now Is The Time To Make Sure Heaters Are In Proper Working Order.

$$

Alz051>062-flz001-003-005-msz067-075-076-078-079-151500-
Butler-choctaw-clarke-conecuh-covington-crenshaw-escambia-george-
Greene-inland Escambia-inland Okaloosa-inland Santa Rosa-monroe- Perry-stone-upper Baldwin-upper Mobile-wa-wayne-wilcox- Including The Cities Of.andalusia.bay Minette.brewton.
Butler.camden.chatom.downtown Mobile.evergreen.
Grove Hill.luverne.monroeville.crestview.leakesville.
Lucedale.new Augusta.waynesboro & Wiggins
415 Am Cst Tue Dec 14 2004

.a Hard Freeze Warning Is In Effect Tonight.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Al Has Issued A Hard Freeze Warning. Low Temps Tonight Will Fall To Around Twenty Across The Area.resulting In A Hard Freeze. A Hard Freeze Warning Is Issued When The Temp Is Forecast To Be Below 26 Degrees For More Than Five Hrs. Agricultural Interests In The Warned Area Are Advised To Harvest Or Protect Tender Vegetation. Other Interests With Cold Sensitive Plants Or Animals.or With Other Concerns Related To Freezing Temps.should Finalize Their Protective Measures Now. If You Have Not Already Done So.now Is The Time To Make Sure Heaters Are In Proper Working Order.

[ROLLTIDE]

A Freeze Warning Is In Effect Tonight For The Coastal Portion Of The Coastal Counties & A Hard Freeze Warning Is In Effect For The Remainder Of The Area.

.brisk No. Winds Will Usher In The Coldest Air Of The Season For Tonight.& Possibly The Remainder Of The Year. Overnight Low Temps Will Range From Around 20 Degrees Across The Far Inland Portion Of Sw Al & Se Ms.to Around 30 Near The Immediate Coast. This Will Likely Result In A Hard Freeze Over All But The Immediate Coastal Areas.where A Light Freeze Will Occur.

For Tues Night Into Wednesday.temps Are Again Expected To Fall To Fall Into The Lwr 20s Over Counties No. Of The Ms.al & Fl Coastal Counties.with Temps In The Upper 20s To Around 30 Over The Coastal Counties.

Alz063-064-flz002-004-006-151500-
Baldwin Coastal-escambia Coastal-mobile Coastal-okaloosa Coastal- Santa Rosa Coastal- Including The Cities Of.fort Walton Beach.gulf Shores.milton.
Mobile.pensacola
400 Pm Cst Tue Dec 14 2004

.a Freeze Warning Is In Effect Tonight.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Al Has Issued A Freeze Warning. Low Temps Tonight Will Fall Into The Mid To Upper Twenties Across The Area.except For Around Thirty Near The Immediate Coast. A Freeze Warning Is Issued When The Temp Is Forecast To Be 32 Degrees Or Below Over A Widespread Area For More Than One Hour. Agricultural Interests In The Warned Area Are Advised To Harvest Or Protect Tender Vegetation. Other Interests With Cold Sensitive Plants Or Animals.or With Other Concerns Related To Freezing Temps.should Finalize Their Protective Measures Now. If You Have Not Already Done So.now Is The Time To Make Sure Heaters Are In Proper Working Order.

$$

Alz051>062-flz001-003-005-msz067-075-076-078-079-151500-
Baldwin Inland-butler-choctaw-clarke-conecuh-covington-crenshaw-
Escambia-escambia Inland-george-greene-mobile Inland-monroe- Okaloosa Inland-perry-santa Rosa Inland-stone-wa-wayne-
Wilcox-
Including The Cities Of.andalusia.bay Minette.brewton.
Butler.camden.chatom.citronelle.crestview.evergree n.
Greenville.grove Hill.leakesville.lucedale.luverne.
Monroeville.new Augusta.walnut Hill.waynesboro.wiggins 400 Pm Cst Tue Dec 14 2004

.a Hard Freeze Warning Is In Effect Tonight.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Al Has Issued A Hard Freeze Warning. Low Temps Tonight Will Fall To Around Twenty Across The Area.resulting In A Hard Freeze. A Hard Freeze Warning Is Issued When The Temp Is Forecast To Be Below 26 Degrees For More Than Five Hrs. Agricultural Interests In The Warned Area Are Advised To Harvest Or Protect Tender Vegetation. Other Interests With Cold Sensitive Plants Or Animals.or With Other Concerns Related To Freezing Temps.should Finalize Their Protective Measures Now. If You Have Not Already Done So.now Is The Time To Make Sure Heaters Are In Proper Working Order.

Tuesday Night.temps Will Again Fall Into The Lwr 20s North Of A Leaf To Uriah To Andalusia Line.24 To 28 Between This Line & Interstate 10. Interests Over This Area Should Remain Ready For Any Problems That May Result From The Freezing Temps Again Tues Night.

[LI Phil]

Hey, Rollie, it's gonna be COLD down there tonight!!! Make sure you bring all your plants & animals inside (and any small children you may have :-)). It's cold here too, but we're used to it.

[Jason234]

That's just about the funniest thing i've heard, how many plants do they think are still alive after Ivan and Bonnie came thru?

[LI Phil]

That's just about the funniest thing i've heard, how many plants do they think are still alive after Ivan and Bonnie came thru?

Dude, they didn't have a nuclear blast...anyways, I meant plants in containers that can be moved, not trees and shit.

[Jason234]

180 mph gust, can do some damage though, no?

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
320 Am Cst Wed Dec 15 2004

.short Term...freezing Temps Noted Area Wide This Morning From Mid
30s Well Inland To Around 30 Along The Coast. Will Continue The
Freeze Warnings Thru Mid Morning. Not Expecting A Hard Freeze Tonight
Although Many Inland Areas Will See Mid 20s Again...just Not For 5
Hours Or More. The Cold Dome Of High Pressure Responsible For The
Cold Temps Will Slip Eastward On Thursday. Although Return Moisture
Is Questionable...latest Gfs And Eta Are Bringing A Chance Of Rain To
The Area On Friday...then Pushing This System East Early Saturday.
Thickness Values Suggest A Few Flurries Might Be Possible Far Inland
Late Thursday Night-early Friday Morning With Cold Air Still In Place
As A Vigorous Upper Disturbance And Associated Moisture Push In From
The West-southwest. However...have Little Confidence In The Cold
Temps And There Would Be No Accumulation Anyway...so Will Just Keep
An Eye Out On This Potential For Now.

&&

.extended...another Very Cold Dome Of High Pressure Will Begin To
Settle In Over The Region Over The Weekend. Looks Like Another Hard
Freeze Situation By Sunday Night As Latest Guidance Plummets Area
Lows Into The Teens Early Monday Morning. Cold/dry Conditions
Prevail Thru Tuesday...then Next Rain Chances Return By Wednesday
Next Week.

&&

.marine...winds And Seas Warrant A Small Craft Advisory (sca) This
Morning...then Tapering Off This Afternoon As High Pressure Settles
Over The South. However...the Resulting Easterly Fetch Will Result
In Exercise Caution Conditions Offshore Tonight. Behind Friday's
Weather System...a Northwest Flow By Saturday Afternoon Will
Gradually Increase On Sunday And Could Push Winds To Gale Force By
Late Sunday Thru Monday Morning...mainly Offshore.

&&

.fire...dry High Pressure Will Continue To Lower Daytime Rh Values
Below Critical Thresholds This Afternoon. Therefore A Red Flag
Warning Will Remain Posted For Today. Rh Values Rebound A Bit On
Thursday And Appears A Warning Will Not Be Necessary...however Will
Continue With Thursday's Fire Weather Watch And Let Day-shift Drop
It If Conditions Warrant.

&&

.preliminary Temps / Pops...
Mobile 52 30 57 42 / 00 00 10 20
Pensacola 52 34 58 43 / 00 00 10 20
Destin 52 35 59 45 / 00 00 10 10
Evergreen 50 23 57 33 / 00 00 10 10
Waynesboro 51 23 59 35 / 00 00 10 20
Camden 50 25 55 32 / 00 00 10 10

&&

.mob Watches/warnings/advisories...
Al...small Craft Advisory In Effect Today Gmz630-650-670.
Freeze Warning This Morning Alz063-064.
Hard Freeze Warning This Morning Alz051>062.
Fl...small Craft Advisory In Effect Today Gmz655-675.
Red Flag Warning This Afternoon Thru 6 Pm Flz001>006-008.
Fire Weather Watch 11 Am To 5 Pm Thursday Flz001>006-008.
Freeze Warning This Morning Flz002-004-006.
Hard Freeze Warning This Morning Flz001-003-005.
Ms...hard Freeze Warning This Morning Msz067-075-076-078-079.

&&
$$

39/32

[SouthALtan]

Hey Guys

So what do you think? I've been looking at Bufkit, using GFS and the forecast sounding is below freezing starting at 0Z the 24th, and remains below freezing until 18Z on the 26th. The questions are will there be enough moisture in the air and will the low pressure be in the right place... Ahh the possibilites, I'm not going to get my hopes up.

Can't wait til I send this ob out or an ob like it.... KMOB 240156Z 35015KT 5SM -SN M02/M04 A3015 RMK RAE0125SNB0125 A02 SLP105 T100221041

[daru1]

I hope like hell that visibility isn't 5, a good 1½ would be nice with -SN, those are some nice sized flakes :-D

[ROLLTIDE]

National Weather Service Mobile Al
300 Pm Cst Thu Dec 23 2004

.short Term...(tonight Through Sunday) Saw A Few Flurries Across
Inland Areas Today. Big Problem This Forecast Is Will We See Snow.
Snow And Rain Mixed. Snow...sleet And Rain Mixed Or Nothing. Gfs
Has Been Very Consistent The Past Few Runs Of Developing An Area Of
Low Pressure Off The Texas Coast And Moving It East Across The
Gulf. This Looks Reasonable As 500h Trough Over Old Mexico Will
Slowly Push East Through Saturday. With Cold Air Already In Place
Across Cwa...any Precipitation That May Fall Would Do So As Sleet Or
Snow. With This Scenario Expect The Following Things To Occur
Across The Cwa. Expect Clouds And Precipitation To Spread Along The
Coastal Areas Friday Morning. The Area Of Precipitation Will Remain
Primarily Along The Coastal Areas With A Mix Of Sleet Or Snow Friday
Morning. The Precipitation Will Change Over To Rain During The
Afternoon As Temperatures Warm Into The 40s. Any Precipitation That
Is Falling Will Change Back Over To A Mix Of Sleet And Snow Friday
Night. There Will Still Be A Slight Chance Of Precipitation
Saturday Just Offshore As The 500h Trough Moves Closer To Cwa. With
All Of This Said...chances Of Precipitation Will Only Be About 30
Percent And We Are Expecting Little If Any Accumulation. If The
Surface Low Tracks Farther Offshore...we Would Just See Clouds Along
The Coastal Areas. If The Low Tracks Nearer The Coast...the Area Of
Mixed Precipitation Would Extend Farther Inland. The 500h Trough
Finally Moves Through The Cwa By Sunday With Clearing Skies.
Coldest Night For The Next Few Days Will Be Friday Night With A Hard
Freeze Possible Across The Inland Areas. Will Issue A Hard Freeze
Watch For Friday Night For The Inland Areas North Of The Coastal
Area.

Note: We Can Expect Snow To Fall About Once Every Four Years
Across The Area. The Last Snowfall In Mobile Was January 12 2003
And In Pensacola January 3 2002. Both Of These Snowfalls Were Only
A Trace. At Least It Feels A Lot Like Christmas.

&&

.extended... (monday Through Thursday) Made Very Little Changes To
Extended. We Will Slowly Warmup Through The Extended With Surface
High Ridged Across Area From The Northeast Through Mid Week. East
And Southeast Winds Will Slowly Increase The Moisture Levels And
Will Have A Slight Chance Of Showers Returning Late In The Extended.

&&

.marine...will Leave Small Craft Up. Winds Will Not Subside
Until Sunday. Winds Could Be Higher In The 20 To 60 Mile Offshore
Leg Depending On Track Of Low Moving Across The Gulf Of Mexico.
Winds Will Become More Easterly Late In The Period As Surface High
Moves East Of Cwa.

&&

.fire...breezy Across The Fire Zones Next Few Days But Cooler
Temperatures Will Make It Difficult To Get The Surface Humidity Low
Enough For Watch Or Warnings.

&&

.preliminary Temps / Pops...

Mobile 27 40 23 45 / 10 30 20 10
Pensacola 29 44 26 48 / 10 30 20 10
Destin 35 48 32 49 / 10 30 20 10
Evergreen 24 40 20 43 / 10 20 20 10
Waynesboro 23 39 18 43 / 10 10 10 10
Camden 23 39 21 42 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.mob Watches/warnings/advisories...
Al...sca Gmz630-650-670. Hard Freeze Watch Alz051>062.
Fl...sca Gmz655-675. Hard Freeze Watch Flz001-003-005.
Ms...hard Freeze Watch Msz067-075-076-078-

[IL_Greg]

Lows in the 30s...same as up here in St Louis. Except up here, that's about 10 degrees above normal for the end of December. That warm air is feeding very nicely right up the Mississippi valley.

[ROLLTIDE]

From 35 last weekened to 75 yesterday :(

[Alex]

Has it even been below 40 yet this month in Mobile? Those 70s are pretty consistent considering that it's January!

[ROLLTIDE]

Nope it hasn't . Things will change on friday with a quick shot of artic air then back the 70's

[Alex]

The Pinneaple Express continues to deluge the San Diego area and our flood watch continues til Tuesday. Keep your eyes open for some weather from this come sometime this week. We have enough pop to get a thunderstorm as I type this in San Diego (a place with 0-5 thunder days a year no less)...

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

Hail Now :)

[ROLLTIDE]

Long Term...thursday Through Tuesday...by Thu Broad Area Of Low
Pressure At The Sfc Over The Western Carib Begins To Move Northward
Through The Yucatan Channel Into The Se Gulf As Per Latest
Gfs...ukmet And Ecmf Solutions While The Canadian Brings The System
Over Cuba Then Into The Se Gulf/fl Straits. One Concern With The
Canadian Is The Lack Of High Pressure In The Lower To Mid Levels
East Of The Low Over Western Atlantic And Fl Pen. With This Will
Have To Lean More Towards The Gfs/ukmet Solutions Due To Better
Ridging To The East. By Fri If The Low Does Gen Up As The Models
Depict Gusty Winds Up To 30 Knots Will Be Likely Along The Immediate
Coast By Fri Eve Moving Inland Fri Night And Sat. Current Gfs Shows
A Large Swath Of Tropical Moisture With This System Moving Inland
And Affecting Much Of The Cwfa Fri Night And Sat Also...though Will
Hold Off With Categorical Pops For This Time Frame For Now. With
Extra Clouds And Moisture Advecting In From The Se Will Hold Temps
To Near Mos Guidance Of Slightly Below Especially Near The Coast In
The Extended Pds Mentioned Above...continuing Through Mon. Stay
Tuned For Further Updates From This Office And The Tropical
Prediction Center As This System Evolves And Becomes Better
Developed Late In The Week./32

&&

.marine...have Not Changed Much To The Ongoing Marine Forecast Due
To The Uncertainty With The Low Pressure That The Models Are Moving
South Of The Area By The Weekend. Will Break The 20 To 60 Nm Out And
Increase The Winds A Bit For Late Week And Early Weekend. The
Nam/dgex And Gfs Along With The Ukmet/ecmwf And Canadian All Show A
Low Of Varying Strength And Position Somewhere In The Gulf Later In
The Week. Winds Should Remain East To Southeast As The Low Moves
Southwest Of Forecast Area. /11

[ROLLTIDE]

Afternoon: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 88. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 88. East wind 5 to 15 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low near 73. Southeast wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 85. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: Occasional showers and thunderstorms. High near 85. East wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday Night: Occasional showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Low around 77. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low near 76. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 90. Chance of precipitation is 30%.