Mobile, AL

[Alabamaboy]

Tropical Storm Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
425 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

ALZ061-062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ075-076-078-079-061100-
BALDWIN INLAND-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE INLAND-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY MINETTE...CITRONELLE...CRESTVIEW...
LEAKESVILLE...LUCEDALE...NEW AUGUSTA...WALNUT HILL...WIGGINS
425 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN INLAND TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...STONE...GEORGE...GREENE...AND PERRY.

IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THE INLAND PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES.

IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA THE INLAND PORTIONS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA
AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...THOSE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CINDY HAS BECOME STRONGER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
LATE TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM CINDY WILL MOVE JUST WEST OF GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI BY 6 AM
WEDNESDAY...MOVING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

CINDY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED JUST INLAND OF THE COAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA IN NUMEROUS SQUALLS.
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF CINDY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH PORTIONS OF
STONE...GEORGE...PERRY AND GREENE COUNTIES OF MISSISSIPPI.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DOWN LARGE LIMBS AND
TREES...ESPECIALLY THOSE WEAKENED BY DISEASE AND PREVIOUS STORMS.
POWER LINES CAN ALSO BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS TRASH
CANS...LAWN FURNITURE AND ORNAMENTAL PLANTS ARE ALSO AT RISK TO BE
BLOWN AROUND. IN ADDITION...WEAKENED ROOFS THAT SUFFERED DAMAGE
DURING IVAN COULD BE BLOWN OFF HOUSES. DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...
TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE
DANGER OF THESE WINDS.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
423 Am Cdt Thu Jul 7 2005

...hurricane Dennis Forecast Into The Gulf This Weekend...
...dennis Is Forecast To Become A Major Hurricane...

.synopsis...weather Map This Morning Shows That The Remnant Low Of
Cindy Has Merged With A Stalled Frontal Zone...northwest Of Atlanta
Georgia. A Trailing Trof Of Low Pressure From The Low Extends Back
Into The Forecast Area. Meanwhile...hurricane Dennis Was Southeast Of
Jamaica Churning West Northwestward Across The Caribbean.

&&

.short Term...(today And Tonight)...relatively Cool And Dry Boundary
Layer Conditions Exist Across The Forecast In The Wake Of T.s.
Cindy. Northwest Flow Prevails Up To 6kt Ft...advecting Dry Air Into
Southeast Mississippi And Southwest Alabama. Stratus Cloud Deck With
A Base Around 1000 Ft Across The Northeast Portions Of The Forecast
Area Continues To Lift To The Northeast. Some Clouds Will Linger
Early This Morning...but Clear The Cwa By Noon. The Nam Model Is
Over Forecasting The Amount Of Available Moisture In The Low
Levels...so Therefore Did Not Jump On The Higher (scattered)
Precipitation Chances For Today. Gfs Seems Reasonable With Late
Afternoon/early Evening High Based Isolated Showers. Deep Convection
Should Be Limited So Left Thunder Out. Various Model Temperature
Guidance Similar For Today With Highs Generally In The Upper 80s.
Went With The Cooler Gfs Guidance For Tonight As Surface Dewpoints
Will Not Have Recovered By Then. /22

Friday...a Weakness In The Upper Atmosphere Looks To Hang Around
The Forecast Area And May See A Small Recovery Of Deep Layer
Moisture To Go With Small Coverages Of Daytime Showers And
Thunderstorms. /10

.long Term...with Each Shift...we Are Becoming Increasingly
Concerned On The Forecast Track Of Dennis. As Dennis Emerges
Into The Gulf Of Mexico Early In The Weekend...dennis Looks To Be A
Major Hurricane Churning Over The Warm Oceanic Waters Of The Gulf Of
Mexico Within A Low Shear Environment. The Forecast From The Tropical
Prediction Center Is Calling For Dennis To Begin Taking On More Of A
Poleward Curve Saturday...around An Upper Ridge Of High Pressure That
Will Be Positioned Over The Southeast U.s. This Takes The Track Into
The North Central Gulf States Late In The Weekend Into Early Monday.
If The Forecast Holds...this Will Be Potentially The 2nd Major
Hurricane To Impact The Area In Less Than A Year. /10

Of Note...in The Extended Outlook For Tropical Cyclones. Errors For
Track Have Averaged Near 250 Nautical Miles On Day 4 And 325
Nautical Miles On Day 5...and For Intensity Near 20 Knots Each Day.
Thus...it Is Not Important To Focus Solely On A Fixed Point...but For
A Larger Threat Cone. Best Course Of Action Right Now Is To Review
Hurricane Preparedness Plans And To Stay Up To Date On The Latest
Information From The Tropical Prediction Center. /10

&&

.marine...a Light Northwest Flow Will Turn To The Southwest By Late
Afternoon With The Aid Of Land Surface Heating. Winds Will Turn
Offshore Again Tonight As High Pressure Builds In From The North.
Pressure Gradient Begins To Tighten Between The High Pressure And
The National Hurricane Centers Prediction Of Approaching Hurricane
Dennis. Will Bring Up Winds And Seas Accordingly Over The Weekend...
And Just Mention Hurricane Conditions Possible In The Extended. /22

&&

.fire Weather...no Concerns. /10


&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mobile 89 73 92 73 / 10 10 20 10
Pensacola 89 75 92 75 / 10 10 20 10
Destin 88 77 91 77 / 10 10 20 10
Evergreen 89 68 93 71 / 10 10 30 10
Waynesboro 90 69 93 70 / 10 20 30 10
Camden 89 68 93 71 / 10 20 30 10

&&

.mob Watches/warnings/advisories...
Al...none.
Fl...none.
Ms...none.

[ROLLTIDE]

Hurricane Local Statement
National Weather Service Mobile Al
517 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 8 2005

...a Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For The Alabama And Northwest
Florida Gulf Coasts...

...hurricane Dennis Will Move Into The Southeast Gulf This Evening
And Take Aim On The North Central Gulf Coast...

...areas Affected...
This Statement Recommends Specific Actions To Be Taken By Residents
Of The Coastal Counties Of Southwest Alabama And Northwest Florida.

...watches/warnings...
A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For The Coastal Areas Of Mobile And
Baldwin Counties Of Southwest Alabama...as Well As Escambia...santa
Rosa...and Okaloosa Counties In The Extreme Western Florida
Panhandle.

A Flash Flood Watch Remains In Effect Through Sunday Night For
Southwest Alabama...extreme Southeast Mississippi And The Extreme
Western Florida Panhandle.

...storm Information...
At 4 Pm Cdt...the Center Of Hurricane Dennis Was Located Near
Latitude 22.6 North...longitude 81.1 West Or About 145 Miles South-
Southeast Of Key West Florida. Dennis Is Moving To The Northwest
Near 17 Mph With Maximum Sustained Winds Near 135 Mph With Higher
Gusts. Dennis Is Expected To Move Across The North Central Gulf
Coast...possibly The Extreme Northwest Florida Panhandle Or Alabama
Coasts...on Sunday As A Dangerous Category Three Hurricane.

...precautionary/preparedness Actions...
Shelters Are Being Opened In Some Areas Tonight...with Mandatory
Evacuations Possible On Saturday. Listen To Local Radio And Tv For
Specific Actions To Be Taken In Your Area.

...storm Surge Flood And Storm Tide Impacts...
Astronomical High Tides Will Occur Near Noon On Sunday...and Combined
With The Surge From Dennis...could Result In A Storm Surge Between 10
And 14 Feet In And Near Where Dennis Makes Landfall. This Will
Result In Major Destruction Along Coastal Areas...similar To What
Hurricane Ivan Produced Last Year.

...wind Impacts...
Tropical Storm Force Winds Of 40 Mph Or Greater Will Begin To Affect
The Coastal Areas Early Sunday Morning...which Will Make Driving
Conditions Hazardous. Hurricane Force Winds...75 Mph Or Greater...
Will Begin To Affect The Area Around Midday Sunday And Persist
Through Sunday Afternoon And Evening. As Dennis Is Expected To Be
At Least A Category Three Hurricane With Winds Around 120 Mph...major
Structural Damage Is Likely With Dennis.

...rip Currents And Rainfall Amounts...
Dangerous Rip Currents Are Likely Saturday And Sunday Due To
Increasing Surf And Winds. People Are Discouraged From Swimming...
Surfing And Recreational Boating Until Dennis Moves Out Of The Area.

Rainfall Totals Of 5 To 10 Inches Are Possible As Dennis Makes
Landfall And Tracks Inland. Ground Conditions Are Still Fairly Moist
Due To Heavy Rainfall From Tropical Storm Cindy Earlier In The
Week...this Will Promote More Runoff And Result In A Dangerous Flash
Flood Situation As Dennis Moves Inland. If Flooding Is
Encountered...remember To Turn Around And Don't Drown.

...tornado Threat...
The Threat Of Tornadoes Will Be Increased As Dennis Approaches The
Coast And Moves Through The Area.

...next Update...
The Next Scheduled Tropical Storm Local Statement Will Be Issued
Around 1100 Pm.

Eversole/mckee

[ROLLTIDE]

Alz061-062-flz001-003-005-091100-
Baldwin Inland-escambia Inland-mobile Inland-okaloosa Inland-
Santa Rosa Inland-
Including The Cities Of.bay Minette.citronelle.crestview.
Walnut Hill
1047 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 8 2005

.an Inland Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For The Inland Portions Of
The Al & Nw Fl Coastal Counties.

The Natl Weather Svc In Mobile Has Issued An Inland
Hurricane Watch For The Following Counties.

In Sw Al The Inland Portions Of Mobile & Baldwin
Counties.

In Nw Fl The Inland Portions Of Escambia.santa Rosa
And Okaloosa Counties.

An Inland Hurricane Watch Is Issued When Hurricane Force Winds.
Of 74 Mph Or Greater.are Expected In The Watch Area Within The Next
36 Hrs.

At This Time.hurricane Dennis Is Expected To Push Into The
Extreme Southeastern Gulf Tonight.then Continue Tracking
Northwestward Across The Eastern Gulf Through Sun Afternoon. The
Latest Forecasts From The Natl Weather Svc Have Hurricane
Dennis Making Landfall Somewhere Near Pensacola Fl Around
4 Pm On Sunday.then Continuing Northwestward Into Southwest
Al.

Hurricane Force Winds Of 74 Mph Or Greater.will Begin To Affect
The Inland Portions Of Extreme Nw Fl By 3 Pm Sunday
Afternoon.then Inland Baldwin County By 5 Pm Sunday.with Tropical
Storm Force Winds Of 39 To 73 Mph Likely Further West Across
Inland Mobile County.

Remember.this Is A Dangerous Situation As Hurricane Dennis Is
Expected To Be A Category Three Hurricane With Winds Around 120 Mph
At Landfall.with Major Structural Damage Likely Across The Watch
Area.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Alz061-062-flz001-003-005-091700-
Baldwin Inland-escambia Inland-mobile Inland-okaloosa Inland-
Santa Rosa Inland-
Including The Cities Of.bay Minette.citronelle.crestview.
Walnut Hill
420 Am Cdt Sat Jul 9 2005

.inland Hurricane Warning In Effect.

The Natl Weather Svc Forecast Office In Mobile Has Issued An
Inland Hurricane Warning For The Following Counties.

In Sw Al.mobile & Baldwin Counties.

In Nw Fl.escambia.santa Rosa.& Okaloosa
Counties.

Hurricane Dennis.over The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico.is
Forecast To Continue Moving Nw Reaching The N. Gulf
Of Mexico Tonight. The Center Of Hurricane Dennis Is Expected To
Move To The Cntl Gulf Coast Sun Afternoon. Dennis Will
Continue Moving To The Northwest.deep Into The Interior Counties
Of So. Al & So. Ms Through The Evening Hrs.

Based On The Latest Official Forecast Track.hurricane Force
Winds On The No. Side Of Dennis.those Winds Of 74 Mph Or
Greater.are Forecast To Begin Spreading Inland Across The Coastal
Counties Around Noon Sunday.

This Is Dangerous Situation. Hurricane Dennis Is Forecast To Be A
Category Three Hurricane At Landfall With Winds Around 120 Mph.
While Some Weakening Can Be Expected To Occur After Landfall.
Hurricane Force Winds Around The Center Of Dennis Will Move Well
Inland After Landfall.

While Some Uncertainty Still Remains With The Exact Track.timing.
And Strength Of Hurricane Dennis By Landfall.major Structural
Damage Will Occur Where Dennis Moves Ashore. This Damage Will Extend
Not Only Along The Coast.but Inland As Well.

Today Is The Last Day To Prepare For The Hurricane Force Winds
Expected On Sunday. The Weather Conditions On Sun Will
Begin Deteriorating Quickly. Preparedness Measures Should Be Well
Underway At This Time.& Should Be Completed By This Evening.

Later Forecasts Will Better Define The Eventual Track Of
Hurricane Dennis. Stay Tuned For Later Statements & Updates From
The Natl Weather Svc.

$$

Alz052-053-055>060-msz067-075-076-078-079-091700-
Butler-clarke-conecuh-covington-crenshaw-escambia-george-greene-
Monroe-perry-stone-wa-wayne-
Including The Cities Of.andalusia.brewton.chatom.evergreen.
Greenville.grove Hill.leakesville.lucedale.luverne.
Monroeville.new Augusta.waynesboro.wiggins
420 Am Cdt Sat Jul 9 2005

.inland Hurricane Watch In Effect.

The Natl Weather Svc Forecast Office In Mobile Has Issued An
Inland Hurricane Watch For The Following Counties.

In Se Ms.stone.george.perry.greene & Wayne
Counties.

In So. Al.this Hurricane Watch Includes Wa.
Choctaw.clarke.wilcox.butler.crenshaw.conecuh.monr oe.
Covington.& Escambia Counties.

Hurricane Dennis.over The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico Today.is
Forecast To Continue Moving Nw Reaching The N. Gulf
Of Mexico Tonight. The Center Of Hurricane Dennis Is Expected To
Move To The Cntl Gulf Coast Sun Afternoon. Dennis Will
Continue Moving To The Nw Across The Interior Counties Of
South Al & So. Ms Through The Evening Hrs On
Sunday.

Based On The Latest Official Forecast Track.hurricane Force
Winds.those Winds Of 74 Mph Or Greater.are Forecast To Begin
Affecting The Inland Counties Just No. Of The Coast By Late Sunday
Afternoon.spreading Farther Inland Across The Interior Counties Of
South Ms & So. Al During The Evening Hrs On
Sunday.

This Is A Potentially Dangerous Situation. Hurricane Dennis Is
Currently Forecast To Be A Category Three Hurricane At Landfall With
Winds Around 120 Mph. While Some Weakening Can Be Expected To Occur
After Landfall.hurricane Force Winds Around The Center Of Dennis
Will Move Well Inland After Landfall.

While Some Uncertainty Still Remains With The Exact Track.
Timing.& Strength Of Hurricane Dennis By Landfall.major
Structural Damage Will Occur Where Dennis Moves Ashore. This Damage
Will Extend Not Only Along The Coast.but Inland As Well Across The
Interior Counties Of So. Ms & So. Al.

Today Is The Last Full Day To Prepare For The Potential Of Hurricane
Force Winds Expected Sun Night. The Weather Conditions Across
South Ms & So. Al During The Day Sun Will Begin
Deteriorating. Preparedness Measures Should Be Underway At This
Time.& Should Be Completed By Tonight.

Later Forecasts Will Better Define The Eventual Track Of Dennis.
Stay Tuned For Later Forecasts & Possible Warnings From The
Natl Weather Svc.

$$

Alz051-054-091700-
Choctaw-wilcox-
Including The Cities Of.butler.camden
420 Am Cdt Sat Jul 9 2005

.inland Tropical Storm Watch In Effect.

The Natl Weather Svc Forecast Office In Mobile Has Issued An
Inland Tropical Storm Watch For The Following Counties.

In So. Al.choctaw & Wilcox Counties.

Hurricane Dennis.over The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico Today.is
Forecast To Continue Moving To The Northwest.reaching The Northern
Gulf Of Mexico Tonight. The Center Of Hurricane Dennis Is Expected
To Move To The Cntl Gulf Coast Sun Afternoon. Dennis Will
Continue Moving To The Nw Across The Interior Counties Of
South Al & So. Ms Through The Evening Hrs On
Sunday.

Based On The Latest Official Forecast Track.tropical Storm Force
Winds.those Winds Of 39 Mph To 73 Mph.are Forecast To Begin
Affecting Portions Of Choctaw & Wilcox Counties In The Afternoon
Hrs On Sunday. As Dennis Moves Inland.it Is Forecast To Weaken
To A Tropical Storm As It Moves Into The Butler.camden Areas.
Even Though Dennis Will Be Weakening.gusty Winds Of 50 To 70 Mph
May Occur Over Portions Of Choctaw & Wilcox Counties In The Mid
To Late Evening Hrs Sun As The Center Of Dennis Moves Through.

While Some Uncertainty Still Remains With The Exact Track.
Timing.& Strength Of Dennis After Landfall.structural
Damage Will Occur Along The Track Of Dennis. Should It Appear In
Later Forecasts That Dennis Will Stay At Hurricane Status Longer Than
Expected After Landfall.this Inland Tropical Storm Watch May Be
Upgraded To An Inland Hurricane Watch Or Warning.

Today Is The Last Full Day To Prepare For The Potential Of
Tropical Storm Force Winds Sun Afternoon Into Sun Night.
The Weather Conditions Across So. Al During The Day Sunday
Will Begin Deteriorating. Preparedness Measures Should Be Underway
At This Time.& Should Be Completed By Tonight.

Later Forecasts Will Better Define The Eventual Track Of Dennis.
Stay Tuned For Later Forecasts & Possible Warnings From The
Natl Weather Svc.

$$

[mgreen]

For live pictures from web cam updated regularly of Mobile Bay, check out the below website:

http://flhurricane.com/jjohnston/

The web cam is located at top of a building in downtown Mobile.

[ROLLTIDE]

Coastal Flood Watch
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
251 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-171600-
BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
251 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH FOR PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE SHORES OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA
COUNTIES IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

POWERFUL HURRICANE EMILY WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH
MONDAY. VERY STRONG WINDS FROM EMILY WILL GENERATE WAVES OF A VERY
LONG PERIOD BETWEEN CRESTS WHICH WILL TRAVEL NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF AND RESULT IN HEAVY SURF AND COASTAL FLOODING ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN EROSION OF BEACH
AREAS...INCLUDING THOSE ALREADY DAMAGED BY HURRICANE DENNIS.

TIDAL LEVELS OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE
EXPECTED DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE LARGEST WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDE...BUT TIDAL LEVELS WILL STILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACH AREAS. SHOULD THE TIMING OF THE
LARGEST WAVES CHANGE...THIS COASTAL FLOODING SITUATION WILL WORSEN.

REMEMBER...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE READY TO MOVE TO SAFE
GROUND AND PROTECT PROPERTY IF FLOODING OCCURS OR IF WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

EVERSOLE

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Coastal Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mobile Al
1155 Am Cdt Mon Jul 18 2005

Baldwin Coastal-escambia Coastal-mobile Coastal-okaloosa Coastal-
Santa Rosa Coastal-
1155 Am Cdt Mon Jul 18 2005

...a Coastal Flood Watch Has Been Upgraded To A Coastal Flood
Warning For This Afternoon And Tonight...

The National Weather Service In Mobile Has Issued A Coastal Flood
Warning For People Living Along The Gulf Coastlines Of Mobile And
Baldwin Counties In Southwest Alabama And Escambia...santa Rosa And
Okaloosa Counties In The Western Florida Panhandle.

Hurricane Emily Has Moved Across The Yucatan Peninsula And Into The
Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico. The Very Strong Winds Associated With
Emily Have Generated Waves Of A Very Long Period Between Crests.
Buoy Data From The Southern Gulf Are Indicating Wave Periods Of Up
14 Seconds. These Long Period Waves Will Travel Northward Across
The Gulf And Result In Heavy Surf And Possible Coastal Flooding
Along Area Beaches Late This Afternoon And This Evening. At This
Time...we Expect The Larger Waves To Begin Arriving At The Beaches
As Early As 500 Pm This Afternoon...and Continue Impacting The
Beaches Through The Evening Hours. These Large Waves Will Also
Likely Result In Further Erosion Of Beaches...including Those Areas
Previously Damaged By Hurricane Dennis A Week Or So Ago...and By
Tropical Storms Arlene And Cindy Earlier This Summer.

The West End Of Dauphin Island Alabama Will Be Particularly
Vulnerable To Coastal Flooding. Local Experience Has Shown That A
Wave Period Of 11 Seconds Or Greater Can Result In Heavy Surf And
Wash-over On The West End Of The Island...with Water Under Homes On
The West End. Along The Florida Panhandle Coastline...heavy Surf
Should Be Expected This Afternoon And Evening...but There Is No
Precedent For Extensive Coastal Flooding With This Type Of Event.
However...with The Beaches Severely Eroded As A Result Of All The
Recent Tropical Activity...some Minor Coastal Flooding Could Be
Possible Late This Afternoon And Tonight On Parts Of Santa Rosa
Island...especially Between Fort Pickens And Navarre Beach...where
We Would Expect Heavy Surf And Some Wash-up Under Homes In Areas
That Had Beaches Eroded By Dennis. At The Very Least...heavy Surf
Should Be Expected Along All Of The Alabama And Florida Coastlines
From Late This Afternoon And Into The Evening Hours...with Tide
Levels Of 1 To 3 Feet Above Normal Astronomical Tides Expected. In
Addition...the Rip Current Threat Will Increase This Afternoon Due
To The Large Swells Moving Northward Toward Area Beaches.

Remember...a Coastal Flood Warning Means Coastal Flooding Is Likely.
Residents Living Along Coastal Areas Should Be Ready To Move To Safe
Ground And Protect Property If Flooding Occurs.

Stay Tuned For Additional Statements And Possible Warnings From The
National Weather Service.

[ROLLTIDE]

Heat Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-241800-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA...BAY MINETTE...BREWTON...
BUTLER...CAMDEN...CHATOM...CITRONELLE...CRESTVIEW. ..EVERGREEN...
FORT WALTON BEACH...GREENVILLE...GROVE HILL...GULF SHORES...
LEAKESVILLE...LUCEDALE...LUVERNE...MILTON...MOBILE ...MONROEVILLE...
NEW AUGUSTA...PENSACOLA...WALNUT HILL...WAYNESBORO...WIGGINS
400 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND A PORTION OF
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES...COMBINED
WITH A HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 107 TO NEAR 114 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL STILL RISE INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE
RANGE. URBAN AREAS WILL HAVE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDICES THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER STILL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAKING FOR AN EVEN MORE DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS SITUATION.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL NOT OFFER MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...
WITH LOWS TYPICALLY IN THE UPPER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT A FEW
INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY SEE NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

SLOW DOWN AND TAKE YOUR TIME TODAY AND MONDAY. TRY TO SPEND MORE
TIME IN AIR-CONDITIONED PLACES. STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE
REDUCED...ELIMINATED OR RESCHEDULED TO THE COOLEST TIME OF THE
DAY...WHICH IS USUALLY BETWEEN 400 AM AND 700 AM. STAY INDOORS AS
MUCH AS POSSIBLE. IF AIR CONDITIONING IS NOT AVAILABLE...STAY ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...OUT OF THE SUNSHINE. ALSO...TRY TO GO TO A
PUBLIC BUILDING WITH AIR CONDITIONING EACH DAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
REMEMBER...ELECTRIC FANS DO NOT COOL THE AIR...BUT THEY DO HELP
SWEAT EVAPORATE...WHICH COOLS YOUR BODY.

WATER IS THE SAFEST LIQUID TO DRINK DURING HEAT EMERGENCIES. AVOID
DRINKS WITH ALCOHOL OR CAFFEINE IN THEM. THEY CAN MAKE YOU FEEL GOOD
BRIEFLY...BUT MAKE THE HEATS EFFECTS ON YOUR BODY WORSE. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE ABOUT BEER...WHICH DEHYDRATES THE BODY.

NEVER LEAVE ANYONE IN AN UN-AIRCONDITIONED CAR WITH THE WINDOWS
UP...TEMPERATURES INSIDE A CAR WITH THE WINDOWS UP CAN REACH OVER 150
DEGREES QUICKLY...AND CAN RESULT IN HEAT STROKE AND/OR DEATH.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHENEVER HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT LEAST 107 DEGREES FOR THREE HOURS OR MORE...AND WHEN OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN THE UPPER 70S.

$$







--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 86. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. East wind around 5 mph.

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high around 88. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 72. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. North wind around 5 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low near 74.

Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Increasing clouds, with a high around 92. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 9pm. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 75. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Increasing clouds, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 105. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low near 76. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 95. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low near 76.

Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 91. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[ROLLTIDE]

Afternoon heat indices expected to rise to between 105 to 110
degrees both today and Sunday...

High pressure... both at the surface and aloft... will result in large
scale subsidence... or sinking of air... over the area today. As this
subsidence occurs... the airmass will compress and heat up. This...
combined with the partly cloudy skies and afternoon sunshine... will
allow high temperatures to climb into the middle 90s in most
locations this afternoon. A few interior locations may see the upper
90s today... while immediate coastal locations will likely see
temperatures only in the lower 90s this afternoon. These
temperatures... combined with the relative humidity... will result in
afternoon heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees today. A weak surface
trough will begin to work south into the region by late Sunday... but
with high pressure continuing aloft... similar hot conditions are
expected Sunday afternoon as well.

Slow down and take your time today. Try to spend more time in
air-conditioned places. Strenuous activities should be reduced...
eliminated or rescheduled to the cooler time of the day. If air
conditioning is not available... stay on the lowest floor... out of
the sunshine. Remember... while electric fans do not cool the air...
they do help sweat to evaporate... which cools your body.

Water is the safest liquid to drink during periods of extreme heat.
One should avoid drinks with alcohol or caffeine in them. While
these drinks can provide some brief relief... they actually accent the
affects of heat on your body.

Never leave a person or a animal in a vehicle with the windows up
and no air conditioning. Temperatures inside the vehicle can reach
over 150 degrees quickly... and can result in heat stroke and/or
death.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high around 96. Heat index values as high as 106. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph.

Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 105. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low near 77. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Partly cloudy, with a high around 93. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 77. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph.

Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 92. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 77. Calm wind.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 91. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low near 76.

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 90. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 90.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KMOB 240846
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
346 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...SAME OLE STUFF...DIFFERENT
DAY...WITH HOT...HUMID WEATHER. THERE ARE A FEW SUBTLETIES...THOUGH...IN
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS THAT NEED TO BE DEALT WITH. THE CURRENT
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF ME...ANOTHER OVER THE
MT/ID/CA BORDER...WITH A RIDGE BETWEEN (STRETCHING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO CA). HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH THE COMPUTER ANALYSIS SHOWING THE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN TX. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP COMBINED
WITH THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE ANALYZED
TO DAR WEST. FEEL CENTER OF RIDGE SHOULD BE ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN
MS/AL. TD12 WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH
SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE CIRCULATION
AROUND UPPER HIGH OVER/NEAR THE FA.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE A USUAL SUMMER WET SPONGE...THOUGH THE SPONGE
HAS DRIED OUT A BIT...WITH NEIGHBORING STATIONS GENERALLY REPORTING
1.9"-2.0" OF PRECIP H20. TAE REPORTED 2.1"...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE A
NEARBY TSRA MOISTENED THE PROFILE UP. A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AT 00Z
SHOWED A BAND OF DRIER AIR AIR (1.5"-1.7") STRETCHING ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS ADVERTISING VORT LOBE
SWINGING SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW...
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD A BIT. NORTHWEST LOW
GETS DEFLECTED NORTHEAST BY RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN MISS RIVER VALLEY
...HELPING TO RIDGE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE MAIN RIDGE AND SHIFT IT
EAST...EVENTUALLY COMBINING WITH EAST COAST TROUGH AND SHOVING UPPER
RIDGE WESTWARD...TO OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY.

WITH THE RELATIVE LACK OF UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA...ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS...AM TENDING TOWARDS THE
ETA SOLUTION. GFS HAS PROVEN TO BE TOO WET THE LAST DAY OR SO.

MODELS ALSO ADVERTISING TD12 GETTING CAUGHT UP IN EAST COAST TROUGH
AND MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE CARIBBEAN. WHAT LITTLE HURRICANE MODEL
GUIDANCE WE GET IN THE OFFICE IS ADVERTISING TD12 MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH QUICKLY BEFORE HEADING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF. AM
TENDING TO BELIEVE THE STALLING SCENARIO...WITH THE RELATIVE LACK OF
MOVEMENT ON THE 8HR LENGTH WATER VAPOR LOOP. ITS GOING TO TAKE A
WHILE LONGER TO SEE WHAT MOVEMENT TD12 DECIDES TO TAKE.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ADVERTISING EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING WEST A BIT AS CURRENT
NORTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS
SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF SLOP IN THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE OPERATION GFS
TRANSITIONING FROM THE WETTEST SOLUTION IN THE SHORT TERM...TO ONE OF
THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED. WITH THIS SLOP...AM TENDING TO
USE AN ENSEMBLE MEAN AS A STARTING POINT...TWEAKING FROM THERE.

&&

.MARINE...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS COAST BY NOON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF...AS T.D. 12 IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS
A TROPICAL STORM. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE TO A MODERATE
FLOW. WILL ALSO INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS...MAINLY SWELLS...ACROSS THE
MARINE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS...
THOUGH LIGHT AND VARIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP THE
DISPERSIONS FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND. ALSO...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 93 75 92 76 92 / 40 20 50 30 40
PENSACOLA 93 77 91 76 91 / 40 30 60 40 30
DESTIN 91 77 89 76 90 / 40 30 60 30 30
EVERGREEN 93 72 91 71 90 / 50 20 60 30 20
WAYNESBORO 93 72 93 73 93 / 30 10 60 30 30
CAMDEN 94 71 93 71 91 / 50 20 70 30 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KMOB 250846
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
346 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...CHANCE OF POPS IS THE BIGGEST
BEAR IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE PATH OF KATRINA A PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED.

CURRENTLY...THOUGH...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY STRETCHED NORTH TO HUDSON BAY...AND EAST/WEST TO
BERMUDA/BAJA CALIFORNIA...RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MEANDER SOUTH...WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER RIDGE. TROUGH
STRETCHED SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO KATRINA...CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE CARIBBEAN AT THIS TIME. AM HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING OUT
ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE USUAL SUMMER STEAMIES CONTINUE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH
PRECIP H20 VALUES RANGING FROM 1.9"-2.2". WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHED NORTH OVER THE LOWER AND MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. CAN SEE ANY
ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME...WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA OVER OFFSHORE AL/FL PANHANDLE WATERS...MOVING AROUND SOUTH
SIDE OF RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS ADVERTISING
SOUTHCENTRAL CA LOW CONTINUING TO WORK ITS WAY EAST...ENDING UP
SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NEW ENGLAND
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...THEN EAST...WITH EAST
COAST TROUGH MERGING WITH WESTERN LOW BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CONUS GETS SQUEEZED WEST...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING RIDGE
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY SATURDAY.

ETA/GFS HAVE LIKELY POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE
HIGHER PRECIP H20 VALUES. GFS SPREADS THE LIKELY POPS A BIT FARTHER
INLAND TODAY...BUT BOTH HAVE MOST OF THE FA UNDER LIKELY POPS. CAN`T
ARGUE WITH THIS CONSENSUS...THOUGH AM LESS CONFIDENT DUE TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY`S MODELS ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS AND GETTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED AWAY FROM THE COASTAL COUNTIES. POPS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AS
THE FA BECOMES MORE AND MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST SIDE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MODELS NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE DOWNWARD
TREND...WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE EARLY IN THE GFS ENSEMBLES.

MOVING ON TO KATRINA...CURRENT FORECAST TAKES HER WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEN NORTHWARD IN THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST FOR KATRINA HAS HER COMING BACK
ONSHORE ON THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR KAQQ LATE MONDAY. THERE IS A
VERY LARGE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST...THOUGH...DUE TO A
LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS GOING INTO THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT
OF EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...WITH A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OPERATION GFS THE DRIER/EST SOLUTIONS...SO BLENDED IN SOME
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INTO THE FORECAST TO PUT SOME CONSERVATISM INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WILL WEAKEN BEYOND 36 HOURS AS KATRINA MOVES WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
EVERGLADES. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW NEXT TWO DAYS WITH LOWS SEAS...AND
THEN WILL INCREASE NORTHEAST FLOW WITH BUILDING SEAS...MAINLY IN
SWELLS...OVER THE WEEKEND AS KATRINA MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
LATEST FORECAST PATH FROM NHC KEEPS CENTER OF KATRINA EAST OF MAR.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN CWF
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A GENERAL
NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TAPERING OFF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 92 75 93 74 94 / 60 20 40 10 10
PENSACOLA 93 76 92 75 94 / 60 20 30 10 10
DESTIN 92 76 92 75 93 / 60 20 30 10 10
EVERGREEN 91 71 91 69 92 / 50 20 20 10 10
WAYNESBORO 94 72 94 71 95 / 50 20 20 10 10
CAMDEN 94 71 92 70 92 / 40 20 20 10 10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Today...Partly cloudy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the afternoon.

Tonight...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Northeast winds around 5 mph becoming 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

Labor Day...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph becoming 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Northeast winds 5 to 15 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s.

Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.

Thursday...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night...Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows in the upper 60s.

Friday...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

[ROLLTIDE]

Today...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph becoming 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.

Thursday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s.

Thursday Night...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s.

Friday...Partly cloudy. Highs around 90.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.

Saturday...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday Night...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Chance of rain 30 percent.

[ROLLTIDE]

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Mobile Al
1258 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 16 2005

Alz051>054-061-msz067-075-076-078-079-161900-
Choctaw-clarke-george-greene-mobile Inland-perry-stone-washington-
Wayne-wilcox-
1258 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 16 2005

.now...
National Weather Service Doppler Radar Shows The Leading Edge Of A
Broken Line Of Showers And Thunderstorms Extending From Near
Tuscaloosa Alabama...to Meridian Mississippi...to Mccomb Louisiana.
These Showers And Thunderstorms Are Moving To The East And Southeast
At 20 Mph. Thunderstorms Will Threaten Portions Of Perry...wayne And
Choctaw Counties By 200 Pm...then Portions Of Clarke...washington...
Greene And Stone Counties By 330 Pm. Although Widespread Severe
Storms Are Not Expected...a Few Storms Could Become Strong...
Producing Wind Gusts To Near 45 Mph...frequent Lightning...brief
Heavy Downpours And Possibly Some Small Hail. The Showers And
Thunderstorms Will Be Most Numerous Over Interior Southeast
Mississippi And Interior Southwest Alabama Through The Late Afternoon
Hours.

Stay Tuned For Further Updates From The National Weather Service.

[ROLLTIDE]

National Weather Service Mobile Al
455 Am Cdt Sat Sep 17 2005

.short Term...
Water Vapor Imagery This Morning Shows An Upper Trough Moving Off To
The East Coast While Upper Ridge Is Located Over East Tx. A
Nearly Stationary Surface Front Will Be Very Slowly Sagging South
Through The Area Today. Most If Not All Guidance Breaks Out Some Qpf
In Vicinity Of The Front Across Central Ms/al This Aftn...thus
Expecting Some Scattered Development. Tstms Should Begin North And
West Of I-65 This Afternoon And Progress Se Before Dying Off This
Evening. Some Drier Air Will Work Its Way Into Central Al And Ms
Behind The Front Later On Tonight Into Sun. This In Combination With
Building Heights Should Bring The Precip Chcs To An End.

.long Term...
Upper Ridge Over Tx Will Expand Eastward To Encompass Much Of The
Southeast U.s. By Mon. Above Normal Temps With Highs In The Lower
To Mid 90s And Dry Weather Will Continue For Most Of The Area
Through The Upcoming Week.

As The Old Frontal Boundary Dissolves...n-ne Flow Around The High
Should Prevent Deeper Moisture From Working North Back Inland. The
Gfs Does Indicate Some Energy Rotating South Around The Upr High
Into Ga/fl By Thu. Thus Have Added Some Low Pops Across The Eastern
Counties For Thu And Fri For The Possibility This May Trigger Some
Tstm Activity. Otherwise...no Significant Changes Made To Grids With
This Package.

Other Feature To Watch Is A Easterly Wave That Moves Across Cuba
Into The Gulf Of Mexico On Mon. Indications Are That It Should Be
Directed Around The Southern Periphery Of The High With No Influence
On Our Wx.

&&

.marine...
A Weak Front Will Stall Over The Region Later Today Bringing A Light
North Wind Through Monday. Winds Will Become East And Seas Will
Gradually Build Later In The Week Than Previously Expected. That
Easterly Wave Mentioned Earlier Shift Will Transit West Across The
Southern Gulf...but More Slowly. Nonetheless The Wind Is Not
Expected To Exceed 15 To 20 Knot Range And Precip From This Feature
Should Remain Minimal.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mobile 90 73 94 73 / 30 0 0 0
Pensacola 91 75 92 74 / 20 0 0 0
Destin 91 75 91 74 / 10 0 10 0
Evergreen 90 70 93 70 / 30 0 0 0
Waynesboro 90 69 94 69 / 40 0 0 0
Camden 87 70 91 70 / 30 10 0 0

&&

.mob Watches/warnings/advisories...
Al...none.
Fl...none.
Ms...none.

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

Long Term...thursday Through Monday
Rita Should Be Heading Into The Central Gulf By Thurs As A Major
Hurricane. Although The Forecast Track Takes It Well South Of The
Northern Gulf Shoreline...increasing Easterly Winds Will Begin To
Affect The Area...and Bring Deeper Moisture And A Better Chance For
Tstms...especially To Coastal Locations...thu Thru Sat. Temps Will
Also Be Dropping Closer To Average For Early Fall With A Stronger
Onshore Flow Component And Increased Cloud Cover. The Upper Ridge Is
Progged To Slowly Shift To The East And This May Cause Rita To Begin
Recurve To The North And Threaten Tx And Possibly La Heading Into
The Weekend. Have Decided To Shift The Higher Pops To The West Over
Our Ms Counties Beginning Late Friday In Case That Track Verifies.
Otherwise...only Minor Tweaks Made To The Extended Fcst.