NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area

[Joe-Nathan]

Screen cast from NWS - LC
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/owbrief/owbrief.php

Hazodous Outlook for SW LA and SE TX

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-021100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE WESTERN
THIRD OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHCENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WHERE A LONGER PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE DEEPER MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS. A
DRY SLOT WILL END RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS BY MIDDAY.
ALTHOUGH LACK OF GOOD EASTERLY COMPONENT IN LOW LEVEL WINDS
MAY LIMIT TORNADIC POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...CONDITIONS WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY...A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...NOT
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...COULD BECOME AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 30
CORRIDOR LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...WILL NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
BY THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA.

$$

[Joe-Nathan]

Update from yesterday:

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
3 products issued by NWS for: Lafayette LA
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009


626 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM MID
MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AND END BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

$$

13

[Joe-Nathan]

MID 30's!!!!

Area Forcast Discussion:

/ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON APR 6 2009/ DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED ON SUNDAY NOW LOCATED WELL TO OUR EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES RIDGING SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. UPR-LVL STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ABOUT TO ENTER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH TROFFING PRESENT OVER THE ERN 1/2 OF THE CONUS. 2RY SHORTWAVE DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE TROF ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. OBS FROM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA SHOW A BIT OF A CHILLY MORNING FOR APRIL WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S. HOWEVER THROW IN THE SRLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND IT FEELS QUITE CHILLY FOR EARLY SPRING. BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS RATHER QUIET WITH THE MAIN STORIES BEING WINDS TODAY AND TEMPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A LITTLE OVERNIGHT THEY SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...AND CLOSER TO 20 MPH FOR THE SRN ZONES. GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WILL BE PLENTIFUL FROM I-10 SWD AND THUSLY A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADVISORY CRITERIA LOOKS CLOSE FOR THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA AND I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE DAY SHIFT HAS TO HOIST ONE FOR THAT AREA LATER THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ONE. WITH GOOD CAA ONGOING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER THE CORE OF THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO STAY OVER TEXAS SO WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE. GOOD THING TOO AS DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT OF A SPREAD AS FAR AS MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH THE NAM NUMBERS CONTINUING TO RUN COOLER THAN THE GFS MOS/ENSEMBLE. AS IT IS EVEN A BLEND WEIGHED TOWARD THE GFS BRINGS TEMPS DOWN TO FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...AND TO ACCOUNT HAVE HOISTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS AREA BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SINCE THERE REMAINS A QUESTION AS TO HOW LOW THE TEMPS WILL DROP WILL LEAVE ANY FREEZE WARNINGS FOR LATER SHIFTS AS TO BETTER REFINE THE THREAT. THE LOW TEMP RECORDS FOR APRIL 7TH ARE AS FOLLOWS (ALL FROM 1971)... LCH-34 BPT-37 LFT-35 AEX-31 ARA-33 (AEX/ARA ARE ALSO APRIL RECORDS) AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PAST THE REGION AND SRLY FLOW RETURNS. SRN STREAM UPR LOW MOVING INTO THE SWRN CONUS WILL HELP SPAWN NEXT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME. ADEQUATE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS PROGGED BY THURSDAY AS WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY ARE EXPECTED TO BEING CROSSING IN THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE RETURNING NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT APPROACHES. THUS POPS RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WE'RE IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT LOOKS DRY FOR NOW.

[Joe-Nathan]

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1206 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

LAZ017>022-TXZ136-137-149-150-152-153-165>167-101715-
SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-SMITH-GREGG-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1206 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DEEP EAST TEXAS LAKES COUNTRY OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE
TRANSITION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
REGION...HOWEVER... STORMS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE
AND POSE A HAIL OR WIND THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
OVER THE WEEKEND...A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
FOUR STATE REGION DURING THE DAY EASTER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL HE A HEIGHTENED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH LARGE
HAIL...HIGH AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

[Joe-Nathan]

Tornado Watch:

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

TORNADO WATCH 143 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113-
115-122100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0143.090412T1300Z-090412T2100Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION
VERNON
$$

Hazardous Outlook from NWS - Lake Charles, LA:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-131030-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
519 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE GULF TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO END ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP TUNED TO
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS DURING THIS EASTER HOLIDAY
WEEKEND TO STAY INFORMED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

$$

[Joe-Nathan]

NWS - Lake Charles, LA
Dense Fog Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
654 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM CDT...

.CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN
HAVE CONSPIRED TO PRODUCE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS
CONFINED TO MAINLY COASTAL AREAS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
QUICKLY AFTER 9 AM.

TXZ236>238-131400-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FG.Y.0010.090413T1154Z-090413T1400Z/
BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-MATAGORDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...LAKE JACKSON...LEAGUE CITY...
PALACIOS...PEARLAND...TEXAS CITY
654 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS
MORNING.

DENSE FOG HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE
DROPPED BELOW A QUARTER MILE AT ANGLETON...GALVESTON AND BAY CITY.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM
BRINGING IN SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WHICH WILL ERODE THE FOG
RATHER QUICKLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
LAKE CHARLES LA 642 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009

A STALLED FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH BATON ROUGE TO ACROSS LAKE CHARLES TO ACROSS HOUSTON. DESCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CELL ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS TRAPPING ABUNDANT MOISTURE (FROM THE PREVIOUS SUNDAY RAINS) WITHIN THE SURFACE LAYER POLEWARD OF THE STALLED FRONT. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS THE RESULT. A SECONDARY DRY FRONT DRAPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL ADVANCE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING...THE POST- FRONTAL DRY-AIR INTRUSION SHOULD ERODE-AWAY THE STRATUS...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING.

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORCAST DISCUSSION:

AVIATION...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY... BEFORE DRIFTING EAST INTO LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. NO AVIATION PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
ISSUED 436 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TODAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG WITH HUMIDITIES IN ADVANCE OF THE A SLOWLY MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. WE CAN EXPECT A WET PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE WEEKEND MIGHT NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM...
WENT WITH COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH WEAK COOL ADVECTION AND COOLER H850 TEMPS THAN THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, THE COMFORTABLE LOWER 70S WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND FRESH BREEZES.
LONG TERM...
THE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO STORMY ONCE AGAIN AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST AND TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. A LOW CLOSES OFF AND PUTS ON THE BRAKES NEAR THE PAN HANDLE ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL ACT TO SLOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LAST FEW RUNS SO INCLUDED MENTION IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS WE'VE JUST SEEN WITH THE LATEST STACKED LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE, A STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. WE MAY NOT BE SO LUCKY WITH THE CAP AS WE WERE WITH THE LAST SYSTEM.
MARINE...
WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 12Z (7AM). THIS WILL NECESSITATE AN UPDATE OF THE COASTAL FORECAST TO REMOVE THE SCA. CURRENT WINDS ARE GUSTING JUST ABOVE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE OUTER WATERS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
LATE THIS WEEK, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH A LONG FETCH, PRODUCING BUILDING SEAS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE HOISTING OF A SUBSEQUENT SCA.
JS

ZONE FORCAST:

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
359 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009
TXZ180>182-201-142100-
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODVILLE...JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
359 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009

TODAY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

TONIGHT CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

WEDNESDAY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. MONDAY PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

[Joe-Nathan]

Area Forcast Discussion:

SHORT TERM
AT LEAST TODAY WILL BE NICE BEFORE WE FALL BACK INTO SEVERE WEATHER MODE AGAIN. NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE EASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME DEW PTS BACK BUT THE 70S DP STAY LOCKED UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. FIRST EVIDENCE OF HOW THINGS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE A STRONG VORT CENTER THAT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COASTAL BEND OF TX AND INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE HAS SOME STRONG DYNAMICS AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OVER. PROBLEM WILL BE MOISTURE. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM WHERE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE OCCURRING OVER SE TX INTO AN AREA THAT IS LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...THE FEATURE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SINCE ONLY ONE POINT OF CONNECTIVITY WITH ANY MOISTURE AND A TS WILL GET FIRED OFF WITH ALL THE INGREDIENTS TO PROVIDE SEVERE WX. IF ANYTHING GETS STARTED...IT WOULD BE ELEVATED AND MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL.

LONG TERM
WARM FRONTAL LIKE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOADING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HEATING PROVIDES THAT EXTRA LIFT. STRONGER DYNAMICALLY FORCED LIFT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LAYS ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE FROM VICKSBURG TO NEAR HOUSTON. THIS PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP SET UP THE REAL WEATHER MAKER FOR SATURDAY. IT IS ALONG THIS PREFRONTAL INTERFACE THAT A VERY STRONG DISTURBANCE IS EJECTED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ALL THE SUPPORT NEEDED UPSTAIRS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE GET GOING AROUND 10AM SATURDAY NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. FROM THERE...IT WILL EXPLODE AND SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE WITH THE MEAN FLOW UP TO HOUSTON AND OVER TO LCH BY SAT EVENING WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO GET PICKED UP BY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. IT THEN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG AND SEVERE TS WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. EVENTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD WEAKEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH SE LA...SOME OF THE RAINFALL TALLIES COULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FROM THE HOUSTON AREA THROUGH HERE. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND FLUSHES EVERYTHING EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

[Joe-Nathan]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
433 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

DAY ONE
TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL SEGMENT BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND CAMERON. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A GULF-OF-MEXICO WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY. MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE NUMEROUS AND ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SPOT AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES. ALSO...SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THE RAINS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009
/ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR A LINE FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO JUST NORTH OF HAVANA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...PERMITTING THIS WARM FRONT TO BACKDOOR NORTHWARD ..ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHER-UP...A LARGE-AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LOW INDEX PATTERN IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES IS IN PLACE...NAMELY THE MIDWEST RIDGE AND A CUT-OFF LOW VICINITY THE 4-CORNERS REGION OF THE GREAT BASIN.
A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY (OR SHORTWAVES) ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CUT-OFF AND PASSING OVER THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES.

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIRSTREAM IS SETTING-UP...AS BAY-OF-CAMPECHE AIR STREAMS IN...UPGLIDING OVER THE CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GULF CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL...WHILE NIGHTTIME READINGS WILL BE RUNNING AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
FOR FRIDAY...WARM FRONTAL RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...AS UNSTABLE POST WARM-FRONTAL AIR IS LIFTED BY PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT.

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. ALSO...THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE... RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE PREDICTED TIDES ON FRIDAY.

HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING IS FORECASTED FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE CALCASIEU RIVER THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE TIDES.

[Joe-Nathan]

FROM NWS - LAKE CHARLES, LA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
510 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

DAY ONE
TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES BETWEEN JEFFERSON AND VERMILION.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RUNNING FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ...WITH SPOT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ALSO...SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
RAINS WILL BE ENDING ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT


SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
700 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...PERMITTING A GULF OF MEXICO WARM FRONT TO SWING NORTHWARD ..ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHER-UP...A CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS HIGHLY BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST...REACHING MISSOURI ON SUNDAY.
A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY (OR SHORTWAVES) ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CUT-OFF LOW. ONE WAVETRAIN TRACK FOR THE ROTATING SHORTWAVES IS LOCATED ALONG A SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA LINE. THIS TRACK WILL MOVE EAST IN TANDEM WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW.

DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...WARM FRONTAL RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS UNSTABLE POST WARM-FRONTAL AIR IS LIFTED BY PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
CLOUD COVER...FRESH WINDS...AND RAIN SHOULD HOLD THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...BAY-OF-CAMPECHE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN... FUELING ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVETRAIN TRACK... AN ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT.
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVETRAIN TRACK WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS ANTICIPATED IN THIS TIME PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT BASIN-AVERAGED AMOUNTS WILL BE RUNNING FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SPOT AMOUNTS FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE HPC QPF (QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FIELDS) AND THE GFS QPF.
BY SUNDAY...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

MARINE...
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.
ALSO...THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE PREDICTED TIDES THROUGH SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING IS FORECASTED FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE CALCASIEU RIVER THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE TIDES.

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
615 AM CDT MON APR 20 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING...BECOMING VARIABLE OR
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE NW GULF. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON APR 20 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM AND A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WELL. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA...SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR LOWS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE ON THE HIGHS.

PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. WITH THE MODELS BOUNCING AROUND ON A SYSTEM
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HAVE REMOVED POPS AND JUST WENT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...RUNOFF CONTINUES
TO WORK INTO AREA RIVER SYSTEMS...WITH FLOODING OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED ALONG MUCH OF THE CALCASIEU RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES
INCLUDING BUNDICK`S AND WHISKY CHITTO CREEKS. THE LOWER MERMENTAU
WILL ALSO SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BAYOU ANACOCO WILL BEGIN TO FALL LATER TODAY. OTHER LOCATIONS THAT
WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING ARE THE LOWER SABINE RIVER...AND PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER NECHES RIVER AS WELL AS PINE ISLAND BAYOU.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
AND EXPAND OVER THE GULF AND THEN SHIFT EAST AND EXPAND FURTHER OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. MODELS CONTINUE TREND IN DEVELOPING AND MAINTAINING
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND CONVECTIVE FOCUS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. GFS
TRIES TO BRING A FRONT TO THE ARKLATX AREA BY LATE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF KEEPS FRONT MUCH FURTHER NORTH.
FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST LOW POPS OVER NORTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM DURING THE DAY. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AS BREEZY S/SE FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.


.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SCEC TO SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW GULF.


.HYDROLOGY...MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
CALCASIEU RIVER AT OBERLIN. MOST OF THE RIVERS ARE IN THE PROCESS
OF CRESTING. A FEW POINTS ALONG THE SABINE RIVER MAY CONTINUE TO
HAVE MODEST RISES THROUGHOUT TODAY.


&&

YAWN!

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
638 AM CDT WED APR 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EARLIER MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED A MONSTER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COOLED TO SATURATION VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND GIVEN THE
PROLIFIC AP/CLUTTER ON REGIONAL RADARS...I DONT NEED TO SEE THE
12Z RAOB TO KNOW ITS THERE. ONLY A FEW HRS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE FOG...AND VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A REPEAT PERFORMANCE IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS TO CLOSE
TO THE END OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED APR 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AREA WIDE. THIS HIGH WILL
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ALONG THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS A RESULT WILL SEE WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES FURTHER FROM THE COAST TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S. ALONG THE COAST THE COOLER WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.
CREATES LOWER PRESSURES IN WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WITH
THE WINDS COMING OFF THE GULF`S COOLER WATERS. ALSO MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING AS WELL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST ADVANCES SLOWLY TO THE
EAST.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT EMANATE FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
COULD MAKE IT THIS FAR TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ON SUNDAY HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES.

FRONT MAKES SOME PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE POPS INTO NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN U.S. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD ACROSS THE AREA. ALL RIVERS HAVE
CRESTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SABINE RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF BON
WEIR AND THE NECHES RIVER SOUTH OF TOWN BLUFF. ALSO THANKS TO THE
COOPERATION OF THE CITY OF ORANGE...SABINE RIVER AUTHORITY AND THE
USGS...A NEW RIVER GAGE HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED AT THE ORANGE RIVER
FORECAST POINT.

&&

Yup, it is foggy here in Lafayette - 1/4 mile to 1/2 mile vis.

[Joe-Nathan]

AWESOME FESTIVAL INTERNATIONAL DE LOUISIANE WEATHER!!!!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
552 AM CDT THU APR 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY BENIGN FORECAST ON TAP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE MEAN TROF PROGGED TO DIG INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS INDUCES DOWNSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF LIFTING THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. SO WHILE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WEATHER ARE
LIKELY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA...THE RIDGE WILL BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS FROM
AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION.

AS THE SHEARED OUT REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRANSLATING
EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PER OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT...THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF RAINFALL AS
OUR MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE MODIFIES. NAM AND GFS
DISAGREE ON WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE...WITH THE NAM SAYING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. THE SREF
CONCURS WITH THE GFS...SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER EAST
TEXAS SATURDAY...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS SHOULD A POP BE
NEEDED FOR TOMORROW AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...SMALL POPS WERE ALSO INCLUDED/MAINTAINED FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST/..WHICH WOULD PLACE US A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TRAIN BEFORE IT BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK WEST AS IT WEAKENS.

IN SUMMARY...THE WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY
DRY...HUMID...WARM...AND BREEZY WITH MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY...LONG PERIOD WAVES
WILL STEADILY INCREASE. PERSISTENT SCEC IF NOT SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM DUE WINDS AND SEAS...WITH
SCEC LIKELY FOR THE INNER WATERS DUE TO WINDS.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
707 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR NOTED AT KLFT-KARA-KLCH THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...VFR AT KBPT...AND IFR AT KAEX WITH A LOW CIG AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. THE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO LAST FOR ANOTHER HR OR SO AS THE SUN BEGINS TO WARM UP THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER. BY THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARY AVIATION WORRY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...WITH VFR THE PREVAILING CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009/

DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. PERSISTENT LEE SIDE TROFFING WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME ALLOWING FOR MODERATE S/SE WINDS. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
FAR WEST TEXAS IS FORECASTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE LOW POPS
IN FORECAST FOR TX ZONES FOR SATURDAY. THTE PROGS MOVE AXIS VERY LITTLE
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. WITH BOUNDARY AND BEST INSTABILITY REMAINING
WEST AND NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT OR
LESS FOR NOW. HOWEVER...WITH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO TREND
TOWARD MORE RIDGING IN THE SE...THESE POPS MAY BE ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
NIGHTTIME MIN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

MARINE...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT S/SE FLOW FORECASTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXPECT WAVES TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND
MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WAVES SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK EVEN THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

HYDROLOGY...MOST POINTS ON AREA RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE IN
RECESSION.

&&

Small Craft Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
720 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA TO HIGH ISLAND TX

GMZ450-452-455-250330-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
720 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
.TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
.SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO
5 FEET.
.SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET.
.MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 7 FEET.
.TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

$$

Lake Wind Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
722 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM NASHVILLE AND TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO MANY LOUISIANA...

.SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ARZ050-051-059-070-LAZ001-002-010-017-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-242100-
/O.CON.KSHV.LW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-090425T0000Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-MILLER-CADDO-BOSSIER-DE SOTO-SABINE LA-
MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...
TEXARKANA...SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MANSFIELD...MANY...
IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...
DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...JEFFER SON...TYLER...
LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...CARTHAGE. ..NACOGDOCHES...
CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...HEMPHILL
722 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT CONTINUES WITH A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND A LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL PROVIDE WINDY
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MCS THAT INITIATED NEAR HOUSTON YESTERDAY EVENING HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/AREAS OF RAINFALL REMAINING
ALONG THE SABINE RIVER. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES JUST
BARELY SNEAK INTO JEFFERSON COUNTY TO THE SOUTH OF NOME...WITH
HIGHER TOTALS FARTHER WEST.

MAIN QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE RENEWED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENERGY STILL
SPILLING INTO SHEAR AXIS SITUATED OVER EAST TEXAS...WITH
CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS THAT DEVELOPED WEST OF INITIAL
MCS EVIDENCE OF ADDITIONAL AND CONTINUED LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA SHOW LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION IN PLACE BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DEEPER TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
GENERALLY SMALL POPS OVER EAST TEXAS AND JUST ACROSS THE SABINE
RIVER FOR TODAY...AND LEAVE TONIGHT DRY IN THE EVENT NOTHING
MATERIALIZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHER PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE WIND...WHICH BY ALL
ACCOUNTS SHOULD MAKE IT TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...AND INTO EAST TEXAS AND
WEST LOUISIANA...BUT EVEN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT QUITE GET THERE
SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY BREEZY. WILL RUN THE HAZARD THROUGH
23Z...OR 6 PM...WHEN THE WINDS SHOULD HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA
AREAWIDE.

NO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE OF THE
FORECAST...AS THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN GENERALLY THE
SAME UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE SE CONUS RIDGE AND WESTERN
CONUS TROF EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS WILL START TO CHANGE ON MONDAY...AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BE ERODED AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET NOSES INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WEATHER CONFIGURATION IS
GENERATING LARGE DIFFERENCES IN PRESSURE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. A FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS THE RESULT. I COULD
LITERALLY POST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PROGGED SEAS...BUT WILL STICK
WITH CONVENTION AND STRETCH THE HAZARD GRID THROUGH TONIGHT...OR
THROUGH THE END OF MY SECOND PERIOD. THE INNER WATERS AND
COASTAL/LAKES AND BAYS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC...SINCE
THERE ARE CERTAINLY TIMES WITH SCA CRITERIA ARE MET. ON
BALANCE...HOWEVER...SCEC COVERS THE PREVAILING CONDITION
ADEQUATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ~1500-2000FT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT AEX/BPT/LCH
THROUGH 15-16Z BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...OR ABOVE 3000FT. SE WINDS AT
BPT ALREADY PICKED UP 12-14 KTS THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTING TO
INCREASE FURTHER NEAR 20G28KT BY 16Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP
AT REMAINING TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG. THESE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE A BIT BY 00Z...BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR 10-12KT OVERNIGHT.

&&


.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-
CAMERON-EVANGELINE-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER
ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-VERNON.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR HARDIN-JASPER-JEFFERSON-NEWTON-ORANGE-TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM.

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WITH PERIODIC BREAKS WITH A SCATTERED DECK
ABOVE 2000 FEET. THUS HAVE CARRIED THESE CONDITIONS TO START THE
TAF PERIOD AT 12Z. MEANWHILE REGIONAL 88D AND OBS INDICATE SPOTTY
STREAMER SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER ACADIANA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH WITH SUNRISE BUT HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
AT KLFT/KARA TO COVER. MAIN STORY AGAIN TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE
STRONG SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS JUST
OFF THE SFC MIX DOWN. EXPECTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE BY AFTERNOON...WITH KBPT LIKELY ABOVE 20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS
EASILY IN THE 20S. AS WITH LAST EVENING WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET...WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING OVERNIGHT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWES RATHER WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. SE WINDS HAVE REMAINED RATHER STRONG OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS TODAY WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THE SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST...WHICH WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE
AMOUNT OF TSAR COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF/GFS SOLN
INITIALIZES THE CURRENT TSRA COMPLEX OVER TX RATHER WELL...AND
SLOWS IT DOWN BEFORE MOVING TO E TX. EVIDENCE OF THIS IS ALREADY
NOTED IN CURRENT IR SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP IT TRUCKIN
INTO SE TX BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND C AND S LA EARLY THIS EVENING.
LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GFS SOLN FOR THE FORECAST...GOING FOR 30%
(40% FOR SE TX) OF SHRA/TSRA BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC HAS
MOST OF AREA IN SLIGHT RISK TODAY IN THE EVENT THAT THE MCS ACROSS
C TX MOVES INTO SE TX/W LA AND LA...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE LIKELY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT TONIGHT...LESS MIXING WILL OCCUR...THUS LOWS SHOULD
DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES OVERNIGHT...STILL REMAINING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR TUE DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE SFC/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSRA CAN BE EXPECT THIS WEEKEND AS
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
EXISTS...WHICH IS QUITE COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR.

DML

MARINE...
SCA REMAINS FOR ALL ZONES TODAY AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES. AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES CLOSER THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL RELAX BY THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE DUE TO THE LONG FETCH ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH IS WHY
THE SCA REMAINS THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING.

&&

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFER SON
DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...
TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...
VERMILION BAY.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

Hey, an 1/2inch in the ole bucket last night!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
450 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS MORNING IS THE EVENTUAL DESTINATION
OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY MCS OVER HOUSTON. LATEST RADAR AND SAT
SHOWS MAIN CELL MOVING SE TOWARDS GALVESTON...WHILE NEW CELL
DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING FURTHER NORTH. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL AGREE TO
KEEP THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE A BIT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS INLAND
SE TX...WHERE I LEFT 50% FOR TODAY...AND 40% FOR SE TX/C LA...AND
30% ELSEWHERE. HIGHS OF THE LOWER 80S EXPECTED. WITH THE MUCH MORE
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...DONT EXPECT THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS LIKE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GO AWAY ANYTIME SOON. PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES AMONG THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WED AND THU. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND FOCUS
FURTHER NORTH...OTHERWISE THE CHANCE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WITH NO COOL FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH...LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED ENOUGH TO DROP THE SCA ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. KEPT SCEC FOR SE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT
THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS NO FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS.

DML

There are numerous FLOOD WARNINGS out for several Bayous and Streams in SW LA and SE TX. Please check NWS - Lake Charles for more info!
LINKY:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/

[Joe-Nathan]

Foggy and trace of rain in the old bucket


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-300915-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
403 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION WHILE WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT PASS PERIODICALLY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
352 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH KEEPING US IN A LOW-LEVEL SRLY FLOW.
RESULT IS A MOIST AIRMASS WITH REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND MRH VALUES AROUND 75 PERCENT. SFC
ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL 88DS ARE CURRENTLY PPINE...A BIG CHANGE FROM
24 HOURS AGO...WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CEILINGS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SMALL RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH PRACTICALLY ALL
OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS LOW-LEVEL SRLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE KEEPING
THE AREA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF WAVES PASSING ALOFT BUT WITH LOW CERTAINTY
IN THE VALIDITY OF THE TIMING HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP A BROAD BRUSH
LOW POP THAN TO TRY TO TIME THE WAVES AND INSERT HIGHER POPS AT
THOSE TIMES. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT MOST OF THESE
WAVES SHOULD PASS TO OUR NORTH KEEPING THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH
THEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL FOR THE TIME BEING.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY IN FACT BE MONDAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR
NORTH SAGS SWD TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER ALL THE LONG-RANGE MODELS
AGREE ON THE FRONT WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COMPLETELY
CROSSING SO THE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SRLY FLOW BASICALLY LINGERING.

&&

.MARINE...KIND OF AN EARLY SUMMER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SRLY WIND REGIME HOLDING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH PREVAILS.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
440 AM CDT THU APR 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION WHILE WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT PASS PERIODICALLY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
410 AM CDT THU APR 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS/LAKES REGION OF SE TEXAS. THIS CELL
FORMED WEST OF THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AT THE TAIL END OF
THE VORT HELPING FIRE THE MCS CROSSING N-CNTL TX ATTM. MEANWHILE
SMALL STREAMER SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN ON RADAR...MAINLY OVER THE TX
ZONES. OTHERWISE JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH KEEPING US IN A
LOW-LEVEL SRLY FLOW.

NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST (I.E. THIS
MORNING) BASED ON WHAT`S BEEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR. FOR LATER TODAY
THE GFS/ECMWF/ESPECIALLY THE NAM ARE ALL SHOWING ANOTHER WAVE
FIRING CONVECTION OVER ERN TX THEN MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY IF/WHERE THIS FEATURE
MOVES HAVE KEPT SMALL RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE FOR NOW FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S WHILE SOME LEFTOVER MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES MAY BE FLOATING AROUND TO HELP INITIATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD SLIGHTLY ALOFT AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS
OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR THIS PERIOD FOR NOW.

LONGER RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY MID/UPR-
LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY WITH
GOOD ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF IT. MEANWHILE A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE EWD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. HOWEVER AS THE WAVE EJECTS NEWD EXPECT THE
FRONT TO HANG UP JUST TO OUR NW PER LATEST ECMWF RUN WHICH WOULD
KEEP US IN THE MOIST SRLY FLOW AND THUS NECESSITATING A LINGERING
SMALL POP. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ISN`T THE BEST WITH THIS SCENARIO...
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF THE GFS PANNED OUT WITH THE FRONT
ACTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BEFORE HANGING UP AND
DRIFTING BACK NWD.

&&

.MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES HERE EITHER AS SRLY FLOW LINGERS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.

&&