NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area

[Joe-Nathan]

weather.gov
National Weather Service


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
418 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-020930-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
418 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY AND LINGERING INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO RETURN FROM OFF THE GULF AND
BRINGING WITH IT A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
656 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

.UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. BROKEN STRATOCU IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION RESULTING IN MVFR. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO
BREAK INTO SCATTERED LATER THIS MORNING YIELDING VFR.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009/

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSES FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOK LIKE A
BROKEN RECORD AS FAR AS THE FORECAST AREA IS CONCERNED WITH MAIN
FEATURE BEING THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING WWD ACROSS THE REGION AND
PROVIDING US WITH A LOW-LEVEL SRLY FLOW. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN 1/2 OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE A DRY WARM AND PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT IS ONGOING.

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING. DID INCLUDE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE AREA TODAY AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CONTINUED MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION OR CAPPING. HOWEVER DRIER AIR IS
PROGGED TO INVADE THE REGION BY SATURDAY SO HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW FOR NOW. SATURDAY ALSO LOOKS BREEZY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SRN TX WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH READINGS
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY THE GRIDS/ZONES ARE RELATIVELY UNTOUCHED. SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN WHILE APPROACHING THE REGION
SUNDAY. ATTENDANT SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH ITS EVENTUAL PROGRESS A SOURCE OF
DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE LONG RANGE MODELS. ATTM STILL LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE ERN ZONES BEFORE
WASHING IT OUT. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THERE`S ENOUGH ENERGY AND
SFC-BASED LIFT TO LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIP COVERAGE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY. ONCE THE FRONT DISSIPATES A SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
RESUMES WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH DAY THEREAFTER. LONGER RANGE MODELS EACH SHOW
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/SFC FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD
BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...THUS HAVE JUST HELD ONTO 20 POPS FOR
NOW.

MARINE...SCA-CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE WRN WATERS ALSO
APPEAR TO HAVE A BRIEF SHOT OF POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SRLY WIND REGIME LINGERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
447 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A COOL FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A
FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

.AVIATION...
STRATO-CU HAS LOWERED CEILINGS THIS AM. CEILINGS RUNNING AROUND
008 INLAND WHILE TOWARDS THE COAST CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE
030. CONDITIONS INLAND WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009/

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING STRATOCU BLANKETED ALL BUT SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA OF THE FORECAST AREA. REMNANT CIRRUS INCOMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM EARLIER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS MCS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST TO
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ACCOMPANYING FRONT LAYING THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS. CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION MAINTAINING A RATHER MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

OUR FAIR WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MEANDERS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A CLIMB INTO THE MID
80S WHILE OUR BALMY SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. PATTERN BREAKS DOWN MOVING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED SOUTHERN TROF CURRENTLY ADVANCING ONTO
THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. BULK OF RAINS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG BOUNDARY WHERE
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. SPC CURRENTLY
CARRYING AREA IN DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK. WILL

RAINS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF DECREASE
IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE THE NORM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE GULF WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS. A COOL FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DROP INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF MONDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

[nightrider]

Did the guy at Skywarn class mention anything about how or who would activate spotters?

[Joe-Nathan]

Did the guy at Skywarn class mention anything about how or who would activate spotters?

It will be released on the bottom with one of there severe weather statements. I do not think we are going to get a phone call or email. Althought that would be cool...

[nightrider]

I figured that, but it would've been nice for him to mention. Guess maybe I was thinking about something else when he covered that.
How far do you live from Catfish Heaven?

[Joe-Nathan]

About 10 minutes from Catfish Heaven. Just drove past there less than an hour ago. Took the back way from my parents house in north Lafayette.

[nightrider]

I went there this morning with my youngest boy. They got me for $94. We had a good time and caught some nice fish. My wife flipped when my little boy ratted me out on the price. Oh well I've spent that many times going to the river to only come back with a couple of fish.

[Joe-Nathan]

I went there this morning with my youngest boy. They got me for $94. We had a good time and caught some nice fish. My wife flipped when my little boy ratted me out on the price. Oh well I've spent that many times going to the river to only come back with a couple of fish.

I isn't cheep, but the fun that the kids have is worth it. The size of the fish is perfect for frying! If you do not catch there you ain't fishing...

[nightrider]

We had a good spot the people to our right and left were not catching anything, we caught 15 in about an hour. My little boy had a blast and so did I. Going to fry them Sunday evening and enjoy them with some mashed potatoes and corn.

[Joe-Nathan]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC001-003-005-009-019-025-029-033-037-039-041-047-053-055-063-
065-077-083-091-097-103-105-107-117-121-125-032000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0232.090503T1245Z-090503T2000Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION
AVOYELLES CALCASIEU CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON
MADISON POINTE COUPEE RICHLAND
ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA
$$

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
946 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

946 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 11 AM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM TYLER COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO AVOYELLES PARISHES. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. RAINFALL RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR
CAN BE EXPECTED.

$$
GRIFFIN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
454 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

454 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WIND PROFILES AND
INSTABILITY ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS PARTICULARLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
10 WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY WITH AN OVERALL DRY
PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


$$

[Joe-Nathan]

Woke up to the NOAA radio this morning. Severe T-Storm pass by the house. Only 1/4" in the bucket though. 5 miles down the road, East, different story, wind and hail!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
713 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS AT AEX AND ARA SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH ACADIANA.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS LATER DURING THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER IN. VFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TNITE WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE WITH TEMPO LIFR VIS/CIG AT
AEX, IFR VIS PSBL AT LCH LATE TNITE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND IS APPROACHING
LAKE CHARLES AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF
SE TX ARE IN THE MID 60S WITH A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...MID 70S FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH STORM MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST. A LARGE SWATH OF 5 TO 8
INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL ACROSS TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS SWATH EXTENDED INTO BEAUREGARD...
ALLEN...EVANGELINE...AVOYELLES...AND ST LANDRY PARISHES. THIS HAS
HELPED TO PUT SOME RIVER LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS BACK INTO
FLOOD. LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WILL ALSO START TO MOVE
TOWARDS FLOODING CONDITIONS ON AREA RIVERS.

THIS LATEST COOL FRONT WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE COAST WATERS THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION THIS SYS HAS A UPPER LVL PUSH THAT SHOULD
ALLOW IT TO MAKE IT`S WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BEFORE
STALLING OUT LATER TODAY.

SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING
LATE. CLOUDS TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND INTO TOMORROW
AS THE FRONT BACKS TO THE NORTH. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH
SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND
MAINTAIN THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
613 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

LAZ010-011-017>022-TXZ149>153-165>167-061115-
DE SOTO-RED RIVER-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-
LA SALLE-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
613 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
CONSIDERABLE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS...AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...WITH ABUNDANT
GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO
PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN A THREAT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE...LEADING
TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

$$

18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

.AVIATION...WEAK QUASI STATIONARY FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
PATCHY FOG LIMITING VIS TO 1 MILE AROUND LCH WITH PREDOMINATE MVFR
VIS SHOULD LIFT IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS A MODERATE RETURN FLOW
GETS UNDERWAY. ALL SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
WHICH WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH A FEW CB AROUND AEX, LFT AND ARA WITH
A CONVECTIVE TEMP AROUND 82F. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TNITE
WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING TO PRECLUDE CIGS, VFR CONDITIONS TNITE.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY A FEW STORMS OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA ARE MOVING INTO
MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE...THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS YESTERDAY IS BACKING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
IS LOCATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID 70S WHILE THE LAKES REGION AND CNTRL LA
TEMPS ARE HOLDING IN THE MID 60S.

BY THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO CNTRL LOUISIANA WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HUMIDITIES RISING. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL LOUISIANA.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN TEXAS/LOUISIANA BY THIS EVENING
WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING ABOVE 70 ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS WHILE
UPPER 60S DEW POINTS WILL BE EXPERIENCED FOR CNTRL LA AND THE
LAKES REGION. THEREFORE...A WARM SUMMER LIKE NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT AND SUNNY
DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THAT WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND.

K. KUYPER

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

Lot of activity in NW LA. Some disturbances might move into SW LA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
406 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TODAY...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WHILE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LEESVILLE TO MARKSVILLE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
714 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009

.AVIATION...MULTI LAYERED CLOUDS WITH NOCTURNAL SCUD AT FL020 OFF
THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS SOUTH OF I-10 UNDER A VFR CIG
WITH AC ABOVE. WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 28 KNOTS DUE TO
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BREAKING UP. WINDS CONTINUE
DIMINISHING TNITE WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME LIGHT FOG WITH
MVFR VIS ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT IFR VIS ARA CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
FIRST OF WHAT WILL BE SEVERAL NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY MOVING OUR
WAY OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT EARLY EVENING FOR ACADIANA AIRPORTS.
WILL BET ON THE STRONG CAP PUTTING THE KABOSH TO THE TSTMS IN OUR
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AEX WHERE IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL WITH A WEAKER CAP.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED
JET STREAK APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS
KICKED OFF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY NORTHEAST TO TOLEDO BEND. THE MAIN
ACTION IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH A COUPLE OF MCS`S.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS POPS. WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT HAS BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME PROGRESSING EAST.
STILL SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY
THE NORTHWEST HALF. THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST.
THEN OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SKIRT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OTHERWISE WARM MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES COMING INTO PLAY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SUPPRESSION OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AFTER TODAY.

THE NEXT FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THUS JUSTIFIES A LOW END POP.

MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING A BIT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERIODICALLY INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP OUT WEST AND
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST
COAST.

BRAZZELL

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
329 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

.DISCUSSION....MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WILL BE DETERMINING POPS ESPECIALLY WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY...WILL HAVE LOW POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF I10 AS MODELS SFC BASED CAPES PROGGED NEAR 2500 J/KG.
WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE
LOW POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INCREASING THTE ADVECTION. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20% PERCENT
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH OR
BECOME DIFFUSE. LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...APPROACH OF FRONT MAY BRING WEAK EASTERLY FLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK...OTHERWISE WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
WILL HAVE A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN WEST TEXAS. SCEC
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.


&&

[Joe-Nathan]

WARM, HUMID and CAP in effect = SUMMER LIKE PATTERN ALREADY!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
330 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT. UNTIL THEN...RATHER WARM MID
LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING BY
SUNDAY...WILL HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH. BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH BY MID WEEK
SO POPS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. FRONT MAY DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO DROP DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS APPROACH OF FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE
TIGHTER TODAY SO WILL HAVE SCEC FROM HIGH ISLAND TO CAMERON.


&&

[Joe-Nathan]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
653 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND A SURGE OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM AROUND LUFKIN TO NEAR
JASPER AND SPREAD SOUTHWEST MERGING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HOUSTON METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AND STREET FLOODING
MAY OCCUR. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH WILL
BE FAIRLY COMMON FOR AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. SOUTH OF
THIS AREA RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. THE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THEY DISSIPATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HEAT INDICIES RISING ABOVE 90 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
BRINGING A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AROUND LFT AND ARA. VISIBILITIES RANGING
FROM 3 MILES MVFR AT LFT TO LIFR VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE AND VERTICAL
VISIBILITY AROUND 100 FEET AT ARA. ELSEHWERE...VISIBILITIES WERE
GENERALLY 5 MILES AND ABOVE. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A BOUNDARY MAY SAG
SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA`S CONVECTION RESULTING IN MVFR
CEILINGS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
NEAR AEX. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO CAPPING WARM LAYER
BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FEET. 06

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH OCCASIONAL
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SFC...A PERSISTENT BOUNDARY REMAINS ACRS CNTRL MS/NRN LA/ERN TX
SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SIT JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF
IT. SKIES ACRS THE AREA HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING
WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
THE SFC FRONT LINGERING ACRS NRN/CNTRL LA. MODELS INDICATE
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR...BUT
UNCERTAIN IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA
TODAY...ENHANCED BY ANY PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS IS ACRS CNTRL LA INTO ERN TX...TAPERING TO SLT CHC ALONG
AND S OF I-10. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTN MAINLY FROM
THE LAKES AREA OF EAST TX EAST TOWARD CNTRL LA. DESPITE THE FAIRLY
STRONG INSTABILITY...UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. SPC
HAS LOWERED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE THREAT OF
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT SEVERE WEATHER ENTIRELY AS SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE SRN PLAINS WILL PULL THE SFC
BOUNDARY NORTH TUESDAY AFTN WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS BY MIDWEEK HELPING TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE HELD OFF ON INCREASING POPS AT THIS
TIME TO MONITOR HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
RUNS. HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PAN OUT...COULD SEE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEAS RUNNING BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR FEET.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
426 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE LAKES
AREA OF EAST TEXAS TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST SUNDAY...FURTHER ENHANCING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
.AVIATION...

WARMER AIR OVERRIDING A SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMATION. VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING
HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ALONG THE FRONT RANGING FROM IFR TO
MVFR. CLOUD LEVELS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN BETTER BEHAVED WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE AEX AREA.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT RECEDES BACK TO THE NORTH. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS. STABLE AIR SHOULD MOVE BACK IN THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. 06

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT WITH UPPER ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR
INDICATING WEAK RIDGING OVER WRN TX AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN US.
SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY QUIET TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS WHEN DISTURBANCES PRODUCED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED NEAR THE COAST...LOCATED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT
TO PATTERSON AS OF 08Z. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE
LIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES THE SHALLOW
AIRMASS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING PROVIDES INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS
NORTH...MAINLY FROM INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS EAST TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST AND/OR HAIL
WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ALOFT...THE ZONAL PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BY THURSDAY...THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH CAP WEAKENING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AGAIN
BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...REMAINING MAINLY
DIURNAL IN NATURE.

BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION. EXTENDED
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY IN THIS SOLUTION SINCE YESTERDAY...HAVE INCREASED
POPS SOME...UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN STRENGTH OF SYSTEM GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. BOTH GFS AND
EURO WANT TO MOVE THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE BY MONDAY WHICH IS QUITE
UNUSUAL FOR MAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF SYSTEM AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES. SHOULD CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS PAN OUT...EXPECT DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEAS RUNNING BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR FEET. NO SCEC OR SCA
FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

[nightrider]

Sunday looking good.

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
507 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...MVFR FOG CONTINUES TO AFFECT KAEX THIS
MORNING WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. KLFT
AND KARA MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG FROM 12Z-13Z BUT ALL
FOG IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY LIFT SHORTLY AFTERWARD. VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER WRN/CNTRL TX AND OK. AT THE
SFC...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PULLED BACK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN STATES RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH JUST SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER ON TAP FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY THURSDAY...MAINLY
ACRS ERN TX INTO CNTRL LA AS CAP WEAKENS AND THE MID-UPPER RIDGE
MOVES EAST. DEEPENING MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL ALLOW SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FM TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH INSTABILITY ENHANCED BY DAYTIME
HEATING.

BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FM CANADA TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE ERN
CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY...HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA...AND INTO THE NWRN GULF BY EARLY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS SOLUTION...LENDING TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. STILL HAVE A FEW CONCERNS ON TIMING AS
MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER THIS MORNING BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS LINGERING INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

TODAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70. HIGH TEMPS WILL
TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS INCREASE WHILE LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL. BY MONDAY...A COOLER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH LOW TEMPS NEARER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 80S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOONS AND DRIER AIR PROVIDING A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE.

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SEAS RUNNING BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR FEET. NO SCEC OR
SCA FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
656 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...MCS ACROSS NE TX AND NW LA CONTINUES
WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CWA.
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MCS WILL COMPLETELY FALL APART BEFORE
IT REACHES KAEX BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE
AIRPORT LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AREA
AIRPORTS THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 13Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED REST OF TODAY.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2009/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING
AND IMPACT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. FOR TODAY...AREA 00Z
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT CIN
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR
TODAY. MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO GET PROGRESSIVELY LOWER ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE LARGER EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AS FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW...THINK THAT AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS ADVERTISED. AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY QUITE
RAPIDLY SO KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...HAD SOME REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. NAM AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATER TODAY SO WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL HAVE SCEC OFFSHORE FROM
CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND. THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE WINDS AT SCA THRESHOLDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY. WINDS
ARE FORECASTED TO DIMINISH ON MONDAY.

&&