NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area

[Joe-Nathan]

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 5 WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
TODAY AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
TO AREAS EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ACADIANA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
AREA AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WEAKENS.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FLOODING.

$$

SHAMBURGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
511 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2010

.SHORT TERM...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS CENTER OF FORMER TD #5 MOVING
NORTHWEST AND APPROACHING LANDFALL NEAR BAY ST LOUIS MISSISSIPPI.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SYSTEM
NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TODAY AND TOWARDS THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS
INITIALIZED THE LOW TOO FAR SOUTH AND WAS DISCOUNTED...WHILE 00Z
EMCWF AND 00Z/06Z NAM WERE MUCH CLOSER TO REALITY. ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TOMORROW...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE NAM KEEPS THE
HEAVIEST QPF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT
LOOPS OF KLIX RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THE NAM MAY BE WINNING THE
BATTLE...WHICH BRINGS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

IN DEFERENCE TO THE RECENT STELLAR PERFORMANCE OF THE
ECMWF...WILL LEAN TOWARDS ITS SOLUTION AND EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH NORTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...ANY FURTHER
NORTHWARD TREND TO THE TRACK OF FORMER TD 5 WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCE THE THREAT OF FLOODING WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...AND LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST OR CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ACCORDINGLY. NEVERTHELESS...STILL ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
INHERITED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.

WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...FLIRTED WITH
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY AS HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL MAX OUT VERY
CLOSE TO LOCAL CRITERIA OF 108 DEGREES. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT JUST ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO KEEP
READINGS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL
COMBINE TO KEEP LOUISIANA ZONES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...

AS FORMER TD 5 WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW H5 RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTING NORTHWARD
AND WEAKENING AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S. THIS PATTERN WOULD TYPICALLY ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN AVERAGE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...

WITH FORMER TD 5 ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL...NO MARINE IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OUR COASTAL WATERS OTHER THAN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT...WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 95 77 93 77 94 / 50 50 60 40 50
KBPT 95 78 94 78 94 / 40 40 50 40 50
KAEX 96 76 92 75 95 / 50 60 60 50 50
KLFT 93 76 92 76 94 / 60 70 70 40 50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ACADIA...AVOYELLES...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...
LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...
UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

[Joe-Nathan]

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MEAN AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A 12-HOUR PERIOD ENDING EARLY
THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO AROUND 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER THE SAME 12-HOUR PERIOD WILL RANGE...FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...TO FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

IN ADDITION...RAINFALL RATES WILL BE INTENSE AT TIMES...RANGING
FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. FREQUENT LIGHTING
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA FOR TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN EARNEST ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

THE AREAL EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
417 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD LOW...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED JUST WEST OF NATCHEZ. THIS PERSISTENT SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST...REACHING KNOXVILLE BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY.

A TROUGH EARLOBES SOUTHWEST FROM ITS PARENT LOW THROUGH LAKE CHARLES
TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS TROUGH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...ATTACHED TO ITS PARENT.

FURTHER-UP...SHORTWAVES...EMANATING OUT OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
...CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD. THE TRACK OF THE WAVE TRAIN
EXTENDS THROUGH EAST TEXAS TO AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
BROAD LOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIRSTREAM REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES. CARIBBEAN AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD ASCENDS
UPON ENCOUNTERING THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD LOW-TROUGH SYSTEM.

OBVIOUSLY...DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
RUNNING NEAR 2.5 INCHES...ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR AUGUST.

IN ADDITION...THE GENTLE (OR INCLINED) SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS GETTING AN ADDED BOOST FROM MESO LIFT
ATTENDING THE PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT.

AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT INDEXES MAY REACH 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SEA STATE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 4-SECOND WIND WAVES OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET...
EXCEPT HIGHER IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.OUTLOOK...
THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WILL TURN MORE TO THE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BY LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. ITS SIBLING TROUGH WILL EARLOBE SOUTHWEST TO
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THE GFS MODEL DEPICTS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
TROUGH NEAR APALACHICOLA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE AND ITS SIBLING TROUGH REFUSE TO DIE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 93 77 90 77 93 / 70 60 70 30 40
KBPT 94 77 91 77 94 / 60 60 60 30 40
KAEX 95 75 93 74 95 / 70 70 60 20 40
KLFT 90 76 88 75 93 / 70 70 70 20 50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ACADIA...AVOYELLES...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...LAFAYET TE...
LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
MARTIN...VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
TRARES

$$

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
513 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2010

.AVIATION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM...EXPECT INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY (4-5SM) AT
AEX/LCH/LFT/ARA TERMINALS THRU 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR. AFTER
14Z...CONTINUED CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH VCTS TO
COMMENCE FOR ALL TERMINALS...AS THE TROF AXIS REMAINS OVER THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT. BEST PROBABILITY FOR
TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE TSRA WILL BE BETWEEN 18-22Z THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS PLACING TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS PERIOD.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2010/

SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD LOW...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...WILL SWING
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.

A TROUGH EARLOBES SOUTHWEST FROM ITS PARENT LOW THROUGH VERMILION
BAY AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE BROAD LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL FOLLOW IN TANDEM.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BUILDING WEST
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE MIDSECTION OF THE GULF...BEFORE
ABRUPTLY DROPPING OFF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

DISCUSSION...
A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIRSTREAM WILL REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE
WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES. CARIBBEAN AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD
ASCENDS ANTICYCLONICALLY UPON ENCOUNTERING THE AFOREMENTIONED
BROAD LOW-TROUGH SYSTEM.

DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING
NEAR 2.5 INCHES...ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR AUGUST.

THE AIR COLUMN IS ALSO UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. A BUILD-UP OF CAPE (CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY) IS
EXPECTED WITH THE RETURN OF THE AUGUST SUN.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURE AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES (OR HEAT INDEXES) APPROACHING
THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD...MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BELIEVE THAT HEAT INDEXES ABOVE 105 DEGREES WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
THE SEA STATE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 4-SECOND WIND WAVES OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET...
EXCEPT HIGHER IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WILL CONTINUE EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BY EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. ITS SIBLING TROUGH WILL EARLOBE SOUTHWEST TO
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THE GFS MODEL DEPICTS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
TROUGH NEAR APALACHICOLA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL TOO EARLY TO
PUT MUCH FAITH IN THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 93 79 94 79 94 / 60 20 20 10 10
KBPT 95 77 95 78 95 / 50 20 10 10 10
KAEX 94 77 95 76 96 / 60 20 40 10 10
KLFT 92 77 92 77 95 / 60 20 40 10 20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ACADIA...AVOYELLES...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...LAFAYET TE...
LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
MARTIN...VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
420 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

SYNOPSIS

A BROAD LOW...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. A TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST FROM THE BROAD LOW THROUGH NEW ORLEANS AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE MIDSECTION OF THE GULF.



DISCUSSION

DRIER AIR FOUND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...BEING
STEERED BY THE HIGH'S CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION.

CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURE AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL BRING ABOUT EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPERATURES (OR HEAT INDEXES)
..ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH THIS IN MIND
A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED FURTHER EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.



MARINE

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TRAVELS EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...BEFORE STALLING.

MARINE WINDS WILL REVERSE DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...AS THE STALLED
TROUGH HEADS WESTWARD. SEE OUTLOOK BELOW.



OUTLOOK

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...REACHING THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...BEFORE
COMING TO A HALT.

THE TROUGH THEN GOES INTO REVERSE...MOVING WESTWARD...TRAVELING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

KLCH 93 78 95 78 96 / 40 10 10 10 20
KBPT 94 78 96 78 96 / 30 10 10 10 10
KAEX 94 77 97 77 98 / 30 10 10 10 30
KLFT 94 79 94 78 95 / 40 10 20 10 30



LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAUREGARD...RAPIDES...VERNON.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...
ORANGE...TYLER.

GM...NONE.


TRARES

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

.UPDATE...RADAR CURRENTLY CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE INLAND
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE DEPICTING JUST SOME MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION. FOR TODAY...LOOKING
FOR VFR. SHOULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING. HAVE THUS
INCLUDED VCTS AT BPT/LCH/ARA AND LFT. CLEAR SKIES RETURN TONIGHT.
&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2010/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT THAT IS ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
DOWN TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS LARGE EAST COAST TROF CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LAST EVENING...AND WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OVER 35
MPH...WITH PATTERSON (KPTN) RECORDING A WIND GUST TO 48 MPH...AND
FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY
DECREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY NOTED ON
RADAR NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM
AGAIN LATER TODAY ALONG THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
EVENING STORMS AND NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. WITH FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD AGAIN BE STRONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED AND SOME WHAT INVERTED V SHAPE
SOUNDINGS...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

AREAS...MAINLY EASTERN ZONES...THAT RECEIVED THE RAINFALL AND SAW
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THEM...HAVE SEEN A DROP IN TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SO EVEN THOUGH THESE
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100...HEAT INDEX READINGS THAT REACHED 109 AT KAEX AND 110 AT KARA
ON SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER TODAY. SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THESE AREAS.
STILL THINK THAT SOME CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
LATER TODAY...MAY ALSO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK. AFTER
MAKING TWEAKS TO GUIDANCE DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...AM
ONLY GETTING HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 102 AND 107.
THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO RE-ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AS THE HOT
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW THE LOCAL CRITERIA NEEDED.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST BY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WASH-OUT BY THURSDAY. DRIER AIR IN THE
FORM OF LOWER DEW POINTS AND MUCH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL LEAD TO LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. COULD NOT GET ANY HEAT INDEX
READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ANYWHERE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS DEW POINTS WILL START TO LOWER
INTO THE 60S IN SOME AREAS. WILL KEEP ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-10 FOR INTERACTION BETWEEN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK SEA BREEZE...WHICH SHOULD STAY PRETTY
CLOSE TO THE COAST.

THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE OVERALL STILL DEVELOPS A
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND BUILDS IT INTO THE REGION. THE
23/00Z ECMWF AND 23/00Z GFS TAKE SOME ENERGY AT TAIL END OF EAST
COAST TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF...AND RETROGRADE IT TO THE WEST
UNDER THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROF. THIS SCENARIO IS
DIFFERENT FROM THE SAME TIME 24 HOURS...BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP THE
ON-GOING FORECAST MAINLY THE SAME AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST LOW END
CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND.

RUA

MARINE...
EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCE RECORDED WIND GUSTS AT
AUTOMATED GULF STATIONS TO 32 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATER BETWEEN
FRESHWATER LOCK AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER HAVE FINALLY
DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. EXPECTED THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BUT MAY RE-DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND AGAIN
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...AWAY
FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AS A SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE COAST AND WASH-OUT BY THURSDAY.

LATER IN THE WEEK...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND RIDGES INTO THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
COMING AROUND THE RIDGE MAY INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 97 76 95 74 94 / 30 20 20 10 10
KBPT 97 76 95 74 94 / 30 20 20 10 10
KAEX 99 75 97 71 97 / 20 10 10 10 10
KLFT 98 76 95 74 94 / 20 20 20 10 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

.UPDATE...VFR FOR TODAY. SHARPLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT HOWEVER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING LCH AND BPT TO MAINTAIN VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010/

DISCUSSION...
A LOT LESS ACTIVITY SHOWING UP ON LOCAL RADARS WHEN COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AS JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY NOTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE...AND NEAR THE LAKES
AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS STILL IN THE MOIST AXIS AHEAD OF MUCH
DRIER AIR.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS NICELY THE
DELINEATION BETWEEN THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TO THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ARCING BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO TEXAS. PWAT VALUES
FROM THE 24/00Z RAOBS CONFIRM THIS WITH AROUND 1 INCH AT JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI AND LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES AT
LAKE CHARLES.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY FROM NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST AS FLOW AROUND UPPER
LOW NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PUSHES THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
INTO REGION. THERE MAY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF STORMS RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE
BOUNDARY. THE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE FOR MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS TO HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE WILL REPLACE THE TROF OVER
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST...WITH RIDGE CENTERED AROUND THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE OF AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. AN INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING FRIDAY AND
HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHER GULF
MOISTURE TO AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RUA

MARINE...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE
COASTAL WATERS AS TROF MOVES TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS...MAINLY
LIGHT...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE TROF
WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...ONLY EXPECTED ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS SPEEDS AND SEAS. THIS LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE INCREASE ONCE THE INVERTED TROF PASSES.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 96 72 95 73 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
KBPT 96 72 95 74 94 / 10 10 10 10 20
KAEX 98 70 96 71 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
KLFT 96 72 94 72 93 / 10 10 10 10 20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2010

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AMID A DRY LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2010/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING JUST A BIT OF ALTOCUMULUS
OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE
CLEAR SKIES. DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS MANAGED TO ADVECT THROUGH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTH LOUISIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY...BUT A SEA BREEZE EVOLVED LATE AND DEWPOINTS ROCKETED BACK
UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. SURFACE OBS SHOWING THAT
BPT NEVER DID SEE A SIGNIFICANT DRY DOWN. DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL
INVERSION HAS KEPT DEWPOINTS UP OVERNIGHT AND CURRENTLY WOULD HAVE
TO PLACE THE SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN JASPER AND BEAUMONT
TEXAS...THEN EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. LOOKING FOR A RAPID LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS
AFTER SUNRISE WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES START UP AND DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWN.

FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN WEDGE OF SHARPLY
DRIER AIR AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BETWEEN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT...AND DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH OLD TROF OVER THE GULF WATERS. SHORTWAVE APPEARS
TO MERGE WITH EXISTING TROF OVER COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY. SECONDARY
BOUNDARY BEING CARRIED WITH TROF STALLS ACROSS ACADIANA IN A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. SCENARIO SUGGESTING PRIMARY
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE HOT BUT MUCH LESS HUMID...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FINALLY
MANAGE TO DROP TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS AREA-WIDE. FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAD DOWN FRIDAY.

INVERTED TROF OVER THE WESTERN GULF MIGRATES WEST AND NORTHWEST
WITH ACCOMPANYING ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND NORTH TO NEAR THE I-10
CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND. WILL
TREND POPS TO LOWER AND MORE SEASONAL LEVELS GOING INTO THE WORKWEEK.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY FRIDAY AS A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE ADVANCES WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL COME INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 95 71 95 70 / 0 10 10 20
KBPT 96 71 96 71 / 0 10 10 10
KAEX 95 68 95 66 / 0 0 10 10
KLFT 94 68 94 71 / 0 10 10 20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...23
AVIATION...13

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOCUSED
ALONG OLD BOUNDARY AND/OR TROF EXTENDING FROM MOBILE BAY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF. CLEAR AND DRY INLAND. THUMBS UP TO
MOTHER NATURE. DEWPOINTS RUNNING AREA-WIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
AND CAN FINALLY WALKOUT OUTSIDE WITHOUT MY GLASSES FOGGING UP.
NOTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO A PLEASANT 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A FEW REPORTS
OF 25-30 OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE DEW POINTS MANAGED TO
DROP INTO THE 50S.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A GOOD SLUG OF DRY AIR REMAINING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EVENING LCH SOUNDING COMING IN AT A VERY DRY 1.14 INCHES. DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WITHIN TROFFING BETWEEN
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND SOUTHWEST CONUS HIGH. SHORTWAVE NOW DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOSING ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
AS IT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST AND WILL ESSENTIALLY END UP MOVING
OFFSHORE AND BE ABSORBED BY OLD TROF. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
HOWEVER WILL ADVANCE TO THE GULF BRINGING A REENFORCING SHOT OF
DRY AIR.

FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY...RAINS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUING INLAND. LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 90S BUT LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES TO HANG ON. AIR CONDITIONERS
SHOULD MANAGE TO KICK OFF AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MODEL RUNS EARLIER IN THE WEEK SUGGESTED THAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MIGHT VERY WELL BE A WASHOUT. MODELS HAVE
HOWEVER PROGRESSIVELY BACKED OFF ON THIS AS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
SOUTHWEST CONUS HIGH ADVANCES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD KEEPING
MOISTURE SHUNTED OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ACCORDINGLY
BACKED OFF POPS. MAIN RAINS NOW SUGGESTED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY TO OUR EAST WITH GENESIS OF MID LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE ARCING THROUGH THE GULF WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 93 68 93 73 92 / 10 10 10 10 20
KBPT 94 69 94 73 94 / 10 10 10 10 20
KAEX 93 65 95 68 95 / 0 0 10 0 20
KLFT 90 68 90 71 92 / 10 10 10 10 30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MARCOTTE

[Joe-Nathan]

FRIDAY MORNING ONLINE BRIEFING:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/lch/owbrief/owbrief.html


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010

DISCUSSION
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING STALLED FRONT FROM THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF WATERS INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRONT REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NO PRECIP BEING DETECTED INLAND...BUT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME ALTOCUMULUS OVER THE AREA. A
CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING LOWER DEWPOINTS WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER 50S...GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.

HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS GRIDS. OUR DRY
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS
BULK OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS HELD AT BAY OVER THE GULF WATERS.
THIS OCCURRING AS CENTRAL CONUS HIGH ADVANCES EAST EFFECTIVELY
BLOCKING ANY NORTHWARD RETURN. DID CARRY SOME LOW END POPS FOR
COASTAL SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AS WELL AS ACADIANA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
MAY MANAGE TO SLIP IN. OTHERWISE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. EASTWARD PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL ALLOW
FOR A NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF FRONT/TROF AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HEAVIER WEEKEND RAINS REMAINING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE NEW WORKWEEK...ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOWING AREA REMAINING
WITHIN WEAKNESS BETWEEN HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING TEXAS ANTICYCLONE. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A
DAILY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.



MARINE
A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY NORTH OF
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE GULF WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS BOUNDARY GRADUALLY DRIFTS
NORTH BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

KLCH 93 72 92 74 91 / 10 10 30 40 40
KBPT 94 73 94 77 92 / 10 10 30 40 40
KAEX 93 69 93 73 91 / 10 10 20 20 30
KLFT 92 74 90 75 91 / 20 20 40 40 50



LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM.

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

[COLOR="rgb(0, 0, 0)"].SYNOPSIS...[/COLOR]HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
MAINTAIN A MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN A FEW SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. RAIN CHANCES BECOME SLIM OVER THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK AS THE EASTERN RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CLOUD COVER AND SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP PUT A LID ON
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE I-10 ZONES. WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT FOR THOSE ZONES FOR MAX TEMPS. ALSO SHAVED
BACK POPS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS THE EFFECTS OF RIDGING TAKES A
BETTER HOLD.

&&

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER WELCOME BUT WEAK COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THIS SATURDAY. AS WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF FRONTS, NO COLD
ADVECTION BUT A NOTICEABLE DROP IN HUMIDITES WILL MAKE FOR A DRY
AND PLEASANT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING GREATLY ON A
TROPICAL SYTEM THAT WILL BECOME FIONA AROUND THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. AN EARLIER RUN OF THE EURO HAD BEEN AGRESSIVE ON TAKING
THE SYSTEM THRU CUBA AND INTO THE GULF WHILE THE MOST RECENT HAS
THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE BAHAMAS DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. I ONLY MENTION THIS SINCE THE EURO HAS
FOUND RECENT FAVOR WITH NCEP PRODUCTS ON THIS GO AROUND AND THESE
SOLUTIONS ARE WIDELY AVAILABLE ON THE NET.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 90 75 90 76 91 / 30 10 20 10 10
KBPT 91 76 89 77 90 / 30 10 30 10 10
KAEX 93 76 91 73 92 / 10 20 40 20 10
KLFT 90 76 88 73 91 / 30 10 30 10 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
506 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO PUMP
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EAST
COAST RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND WILL BEGIN TO PUT A
LID ON SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
COULD BE PRODUCED IN THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THE MAIN
EFFECT SHOULD STILL BE DRIER HUMIDITIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITIES AND SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL RESIDE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HELP HOLD MAX TEMPS JUST BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...GULF RETURN MOISTURE ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES BACK
TO THE EAST AGAIN, BRINGING A RETURN OF THE MUGGIES FOR NEXT WEEK.
HELD BACK ON RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS.
BLENDED IN SOME OF THE COOLER EURO MODEL TEMPS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 91 75 91 73 91 / 30 30 20 10 10
KBPT 91 75 89 75 91 / 40 30 20 10 10
KAEX 91 73 93 72 93 / 40 20 10 10 10
KLFT 88 73 89 70 91 / 30 20 10 5 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
634 AM CDT WED SEP 1 2010

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A FEW LOW CLOUDS AROUND 500 FT AS WELL AS PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...MAINLY NEAR KLCH AND
KBPT AND INCLUDED VCTS AT THESE SITES. DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
REMAINING TAF SITES SO LEFT OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT WED SEP 1 2010/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DRIFTING SWD INTO SERN LA WHILE A GENERAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SIT
FROM TX NEWD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS MAINTAINING AN ERLY/ESERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. YET AGAIN THIS MORNING WE
ARE SEEING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND MOVING WWD ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY AFFECTING COASTAL
SERN TX ATTM. OTHERWISE SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE
FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.

FOR TODAY GOING WITH A PERSISTENCE LIKE FORECAST AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL IF ANY
CAPPING IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. AS WAS THE CASE THE PAST FEW
DAYS POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...TRENDING FROM LOW END CHANCE
ACROSS ALL OF SERN TX/SRN LA WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS BEST
TO RIGHT AT 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR AND
WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW COULD PROVE TO
HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. FOR TONIGHT THE DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY...ALTHOUGH COASTAL SERN TX MAY STILL SEE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO TRIGGER A LATE NIGHT SHOWER OR TWO.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS FORECAST MEAN RH VALUES DROP TO THE
30S AND PWATS LOWER TO JUST OVER AN INCH. AGAIN LONE AREA SEEING
EVEN AN ISOLATED SHOT AT A SHOWER OR STORM LOOKS TO BE COASTAL
SERN TX WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST. BY FRIDAY TROFFING OVER
THE ERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A SFC TROF
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A RIBBON OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND...COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. DRIER AIR THEN
TAKES HOLD FOR SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SMALL POPS INCLUDED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE ERLY/SERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SERN CONUS. A QUICK SHOT OF
OFFSHORE FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROF FOR THE WEEKEND. NO
FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 92 76 93 75 / 30 20 10 10
KBPT 92 76 93 76 / 30 20 20 10
KAEX 93 74 94 72 / 20 10 10 10
KLFT 91 74 93 74 / 30 10 10 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...25
AVIATION...24

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
408 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING DIGGING DOWN THE PLAINS STATES.
REGIONAL 88DS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER N-CNTL TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK VORT MAX
DRIFTING SSEWD ATTM. LOCAL 88DS SHOW YET AGAIN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING WNWWD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL MARSHES...OVER LAND MAINLY FROM FRESHWATER CITY
WWD. OTHERWISE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ATTM
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NOT MANY BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECASTS THIS MORNING.
HAVING SAID THAT DID INCREASE THE POPS OVER SERN TX TODAY AS THE
FEATURE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER NRN TX IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ON
OVER THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WHILE WATER VAPOR DOES SHOW SOME DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO PUSH SWWD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE TX ZONES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TODAY. LIKEWISE KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER THESE ZONES
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE VORT DEPARTS/WEAKENS.

TROF DIGGING OVER THE CNTL CONUS WILL HELP PUSH A COOL FRONT...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST...SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES...THEREFORE
JUST KEPT POPS AT 20 PERCENT AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE PROGGED TO FALL ALL THE WAY INTO
THE 50S DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO VERY
PLEASANT WAKEUP TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE S-CNTL CONUS WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EWD WHICH WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE TO BEGIN SPREADING
NWD ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE SMALL POPS CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT ESERLY FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ADVANCING COOL
FRONT. MODERATE NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AS THE COOLER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS...WITH
SPEEDS THEN DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY MORNING. ALL IN ALL NO FLAGS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 93 75 94 69 91 / 20 10 20 20 10
KBPT 93 76 94 70 91 / 20 20 20 20 10
KAEX 94 73 95 66 91 / 10 10 20 20 10
KLFT 93 74 94 70 91 / 10 10 20 20 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

25

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY WITH A BKN MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK
AFFECTING ALL BUT KLFT AND KARA. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KAEX...THEN
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACRS THE AREA LATER TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND MVFR
VISBYS/CIGS EXPECTED IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPO
GROUPS AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTN AT KAEX...MID TO LATE AFTN KBPT
AND KLCH...AND LATE AFTN TO EARLY EVENING AT KLFT AND KARA. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY....BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER SERN
OK/NWRN AR WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CONTINUES TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL 88DS
THIS MORNING SHOWING A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NWRN
LA/NERN TX...APPROACHING THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ATTM. MEANWHILE SCATTERED SUMMERTIME NOCTURNALS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE MOVING ASHORE INTO SERN TX JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/FORECAST WAS TO BEEF POPS UP
A BIT FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WENT WITH POPS CLOSER TO
50/50 FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SAG SWD THROUGH
NOONTIME. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON WHILE
THE FRONT ITSELF BEGINS TO APPROACH THE NRN BORDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVANCING SWD IS PROGGED TO ENCROACH THE
AREA LATER TODAY WHICH HAS LED TO SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON POPS...
THESE CAN BE ADJUSTED LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD RADAR TRENDS
WARRANT. BY THIS EVENING THE FRONT...AND ITS ASSOCIATED MUCH DRIER
AIR...WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED IN ITS VICINITY.

AFTER FROPA DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S ON DRY
NRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MORNING LOWS ON SATURDAY ARE PROGGED TO DROP
ALL THE WAY INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WITH SUNDAY LOWS ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO THE LOWER/MID 60S WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE NIL AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
DECREASES GREATLY...WITH MRH VALUES PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 25
PERCENT WHILE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN A HALF-INCH
AND AN INCH.

AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...RETURN FLOW IS
PROGGED TO SET UP BY LATE SUNDAY OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO
A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP BEGINNING
MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
ERLY/SERLY WINDS WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY LOSES ITS GRIP. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH NRLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES...ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO KICK UP WINDS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A WEAK LOW EXPECTED OVER THE SWRN GULF. NO
FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 91 69 91 67 / 40 30 20 10
KBPT 91 70 91 67 / 40 30 20 10
KAEX 91 64 90 61 / 50 20 10 0
KLFT 92 69 91 67 / 40 30 20 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...25
AVIATION...24

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE JUST WEST OF KCRP WITH ASSOCIATED EXTENSIVE RAIN
SHIELD EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS HOUSTON. WITH SYSTEM MOVING NNW TO
N TODAY...MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CONCENTRATED NEARER TO THE STORM CENTER WITH ONLY OUTER RAIN BANDS
AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION AT AREA AIRPORTS TODAY. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
VCSH/VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
KBPT. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON EXCEPT AT KBPT. LOCALIZED LIFR FOG/LOW CEILINGS APPEAR
TO BE AFFECTING IMMEDIATE AREA AROUND KLFT AT THIS HOUR BUT SHOULD
SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT BY 14Z. WINDS TO BE BRISK OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AREA WIDE WITH SPEEDS 5-15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH RADAR TO THE WEST IS INDICATING
ALMOST CONTINUOUS STORMS FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS INCLUDING THE COASTAL REGIONS AS FAR NORTH AS THE GALVESTON
AREA. TIDES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING ABOUT 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LOW LYING
COASTAL LOCATIONS. THIS WILL DROP A BIT BY THE LATE MORNING ONLY
TO RISE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON DURING THE PERIOD OF HIGH TIDE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THIS EVENING.

AS TS HERMINE MOVES NORTHWARD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS WILL HOLD THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WHILE SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL SEE LOWER 90S.

TS HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY THIS EVENING...
WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AGAIN INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WHAT IS LEFT OF HERMINE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS AND FINALLY NEAR THE METRO-PLEX BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THINGS START TO GET BACK TO THE NORMAL SEASONAL PATTERN ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TAPER OFF AND AFTN
TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 87 76 90 76 92 / 70 40 50 20 30
KBPT 86 76 89 77 92 / 70 40 50 20 30
KAEX 91 74 92 73 93 / 60 20 40 20 30
KLFT 90 76 91 75 92 / 60 30 40 20 30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH
ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$

[Joe-Nathan]

HAD ABOUT 1.5" OF RAIN AT THE HOUSE FROM A "MINI-TRAINING" EFFECT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
418 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
SOUTHWEST OF DFW...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS...RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

FEW CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ANYTIME DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW HERMINE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS
INTO OKLAHOMA TODAY. GFS...ECMWF...AND 4.0 KM WRF ALL INDICATE
THAT THE MAIN RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION. THUS HAVE LOWERED POPS AREAWIDE FOR TODAY WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS ZONES. RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN
TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BEGINNING
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BUILDS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXPECTED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS H5 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS UPWARD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AS GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE TROPICS BECOMING QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN
AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER...THE TYPICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON.

&&

.MARINE...

LATEST MSAS AND LAPS ANALYSES ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS
HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN HIGH WITH BUOY 42035 SHOWING WAVES AROUND
6-7 FEET. WILL LEAVE SCA GOING FOR THE 20-60 NM WATERS BETWEEN
HIGH ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUS A
RETURN OF LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND MORE TRANQUIL SEAS ARE EXPECTED
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 92 76 93 76 93 / 30 20 20 10 20
KBPT 90 76 92 76 93 / 40 20 30 10 20
KAEX 93 74 95 74 95 / 30 20 20 10 20
KLFT 93 75 93 75 94 / 20 20 20 10 20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

05

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CDT THU SEP 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.

ADVECTING CARIBBEAN AIR WILL TRAVEL THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES...BEFORE ASCENDING SLANTWISE UPON REACHING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE.

IN GENERAL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN GULF STRATUS WILL BE THE
RULE...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT THU SEP 9 2010/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ONLY SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT INLAND
AREAS. MEANWHILE...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM HERMINE
MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

ONCE AGAIN...FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS
PERIOD AS PREVIOUS REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. LATEST GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE HERMINE WILL TURN MORE EASTWARD TODAY AS A STRONG
DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MAIN RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH
HERMINE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...A ZONE OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED HIGH PWAT AIR CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS ABOVE 2
INCHES INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS MAY LEAD TO MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY
THAN CURRENT POPS SHOW. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES NEAR
MOS GUIDANCE BUT MAIN NEED TO BUMP THEM UP A BIT OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IF IT APPEARS MORE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONCE HERMINE GETS OUT OF THE PICTURE ON FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODELS
STILL PROG H5 RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS PATTERN WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL
PRECIP CHANCES OF 20/30 PERCENT ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO 00Z MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS.
AFTER BACKING OFF YESTERDAY...GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DEPICTING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
SUCH A STRONG H5 RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST...IT
IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUCH A FRONT
WOULD MAKE...AND FOR NOW HAVE SHOWN ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MOVE WELL AWAY FROM THE
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE GULF WATERS AROUND THE CLOCK. WINDS AND
SEAS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS
WAVE WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 94 76 94 76 95 / 20 20 20 10 20
KBPT 93 78 93 77 93 / 30 20 20 10 20
KAEX 94 74 95 74 96 / 20 20 20 10 20
KLFT 93 75 94 75 94 / 20 20 20 10 20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010

.AVIATION...
UPSLIDING CARIBBEAN AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ON SOUTHERLY
WINDS. GULF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING...BREAKING UP IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE RIDGE
AXIS SITUATED ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. 00Z GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 500 MB RIDGE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO 595 DM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRIER
AIR ALOFT AS SHOW ON KLCH 00Z SOUNDING WILL ALLOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S TO MIX OUT SEVERAL DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL RISE TO NEAR 105 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND SATURDAY...LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 108 DEGREES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED AND A HEAT ADVISORY
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SEEN RECENTLY.

UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
NUDGE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF PROG THIS FRONT TO OOZE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS. DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND BOUNDARY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO FILTER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS ALOFT EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE FORECAST AREA POPS WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DOWNWARD IN LINE WITH LATEST MEX GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED AT BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
ALONG THE GULF COAST...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT LOWER PWAT VALUES
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF BY MID WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARDS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEXT WEEK...AS SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 94 75 94 76 94 / 20 10 20 20 30
KBPT 93 77 94 76 93 / 20 10 20 20 30
KAEX 96 74 97 74 96 / 20 10 20 20 30
KLFT 94 75 94 75 94 / 20 10 20 20 30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE...AS
NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT NE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS LAGGING
BEHIND A BIT...BUT HAS INFILTRATED C LA WITH LOWER 60S NOTED THERE
VS THE LOWER/MIDS 70S ELSEWHERE. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHRA POPPING UP
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ~30-40 NM S OF SABINE
PASS TO HIGH ISLAND...ECHO FREE ELSEWHERE.

THE LOWER DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL STILL HEAT UP INTO THE LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...WITH THE DRIER
AIR...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL BE LOWER TODAY...ONLY EXPECTING
LOWER/MID 90S. THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT TUE MORNING...AS LOWS
IN THE LOWER/MID 60S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. TUE
IS EXPECTED TO BE NICE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE EASTERLY. THUS...WED MORNING LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...LOWER 70S ACROSS SE TX/SW LA TO MID 60S ACROSS C LA.

DURING THE DAY WED...MODIFICATION OF OUR AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE AS SE
WINDS BRING BACK HIGHERS DEWPTS FROM THE GULF. ALOFT...A FLAT
MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TX AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THUS...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR THU THRU SAT...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
YUCATAN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. MODELS SLOWLY DEVELOP THE SYSTEM
INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN BY THU...INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRI...AND INTO OLD MEXICO BY SAT. IF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE...OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE HIGHER DUE TO THE MOISTURE BEING SPREAD OUT OVER THE
GULF. IF IT DEVELOPS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU & FRI...MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED ACROSS THE C AND S GULF. WITH THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE N GULF COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...OUR REGION WILL MORE THAN LIKELY REMAIN
PROTECTED FROM ANY DIRECT HIT IF THE SYSTEM WOULD DEVELOP. ANYRATE
..INTRODUCED 20% CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BY THU...AND 30% CHANCE FROM
I-10 SOUTHWARD ON FRI.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 91 64 91 70 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
KBPT 91 68 91 71 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 91 60 93 66 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
KLFT 91 63 91 68 92 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

.AVIATION...
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND THUS SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT KBPT DUE TO PATCHY FOG...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE
AS A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CALM TO LIGHT NE WINDS OVER MOST OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. QUITE A TEMP/DEWPT GRADIENT...WITH MID
70S OVER SE TX...TO UPPER 50S ACROSS C LA. THE LOWER DEWPTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE DRY AIR...HIGHS WILL
HEAT UP INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...LOWER 90S
FURTHER SOUTH.

DURING THE DAY WED...MODIFICATION OF OUR AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE AS SE
WINDS BRING BACK HIGHERS DEWPTS FROM THE GULF. ALOFT...A FLAT
MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TX AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THUS...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

FOR THU THRU SAT...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
YUCATAN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. MODELS SLOWLY DEVELOP THE SYSTEM
INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN BY THU...INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRI...AND INTO OLD MEXICO BY SAT. IF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE...OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE HIGHER DUE TO THE MOISTURE BEING SPREAD OUT OVER THE
GULF. IF IT DEVELOPS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU & FRI...MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED ACROSS THE C AND S GULF. WITH THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE N GULF COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...OUR REGION WILL MORE THAN LIKELY REMAIN
PROTECTED FROM ANY DIRECT HIT IF THE SYSTEM WOULD DEVELOP.
ANYRATE...KEPT 20% CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BY THU...AND 30% CHANCE
FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD FOR FRI AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS WINDS AND
SEAS...WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET ACROSS THE 0-20NM ZONES...AND 4-6
FT ACROSS THE 20-60NM ZONES.

DML

FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 190...AFTERNOON
RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25-30% WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 5
MPH AND BELOW. ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS SOUTH
OF U.S. 190...EXPECT AFTERNOON RH VALUES BETWEEN 30-40% WITH EAST
WINDS 5-10 MPH. WHILE NOT RED FLAG CRITERIA...CAUTION IS STRONGLY
ADVISED ON ANY OUTDOOR BURNING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 93 70 92 75 92 / 10 10 10 10 20
KBPT 93 71 92 75 92 / 10 10 10 10 20
KAEX 95 66 94 72 94 / 10 10 10 10 20
KLFT 93 68 92 75 92 / 10 10 10 10 20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$