NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area

[Joe-Nathan]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
436 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
A LAKE CHARLES TO TOLEDO BEND DAM LINE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...TORRENTIAL RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS. A COOL FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
621 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.AVIATION...
DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE 06Z FORECAST. ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWERS NOTED ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING...SO I HAVE INSERTED VCSH
FOR ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THOUGH FOR THE MOMENT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. BY LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE OVER COASTAL LOUISIANA...SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT KLCH-KLFT-KARA TO COVER THIS.
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/

DISCUSSION...RADAR THIS MORNING INDICATES LIGHT SHOWERS STREAMING IN OFF THE
GULF...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS POINT. ONE WE GET INTO MID
MORNING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT...LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORED
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARISHES. GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN AREA OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT MORNING
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...RAIN CHANCES ARE BELOW 10 PERCENT.

CONTINUED WARM THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WIND
SHIFT ACTUALLY FORECAST TO PASS WELL INTO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. LATE SEASON FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY POTENT WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION FORECAST IN ITS WAKE...AND THUS TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO GET OUT OF THE 70S ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
GUIDANCE INDICATES CHANCE FOR POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
FOR A WHILE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

BEYOND MONDAY...WHILE THE GUIDANCE IN DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 CONTINUE TO
DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
FLORIDA AND WHETHER AND HOW MUCH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IT
WILL HAVE...THE CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT IS TO KEEP A DEEPENING
SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AS A RESULT STIFF OFF SHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION AND
THUS LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL AND
HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CONTINENTAL INFLUENCE.

MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
TEXAS CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE POSSIBILITY OF SCA WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS FORECAST TO RELAX AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY FOR TUESDAY...THEN FORECAST WILL HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA.

&&

[nightrider]

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
2 products issued by NWS for: Broussard LA
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Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

LAZ043>045-052>055-152200-
ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE...

AT 1245 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAD RECEIVED
SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. THESE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED FROM THE MORGAN CITY
POLICE DEPARTMENT AND AIR LOGISTICS.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEABREEZE
COLLIDE.

THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND DO NOT
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
REACHES THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

[nightrider]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

LAZ043>045-052>055-152200-
ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE...

AT 1245 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAD RECEIVED
SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. THESE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED FROM THE MORGAN CITY
POLICE DEPARTMENT AND AIR LOGISTICS.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEABREEZE
COLLIDE.

THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND DO NOT
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
REACHES THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.[/QUOTE]

[nightrider]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-162115-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
501 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE TODAY...

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
WATERSPOUTS.

TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED AND DO NOT REACH
THE GROUND...AND TYPICALLY FORM WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEABREEZE
COLLIDE. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND REACHES THE
GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED.

WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO USUALLY SHORT LIVED AND FORM UNDERNEATH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
LAKES...BAYS...AND WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WATERSPOUTS CAN BE DANGEROUS TO BOATS...AND MARINERS SHOULD MOVE
AWAY FROM ANY WATERSPOUTS IF THEY ARE ENCOUNTERED.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

$$

SHAMBURGER

[Joe-Nathan]

Man what a difference. Talk about the possible 'Low Pressure' in the discussion!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
619 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SFC FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY NOW WELL INTO THE
GULF WATERS...WITH POST FRONTAL STRATOCU CLEAR OF INLAND AREAS AND
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE 0-60NM MARINE ZONES. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IS DEFINITELY HERE...WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND CONTINUING
TO FALL.

COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DONE ABOUT ALL ITS GOING TO DO FOR
US...THOUGH A CONTINENTAL FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY...A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP 3-5
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER IS FORESEEN...SO MILD AND THEN WARM SUNNY DAYS AND
COOL AND CLEAR NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF THAT SENT THE FRONT
THROUGH US IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF OVER THE EASTERN GULF...MERGING
WITH A PRE-EXISTING WEAKNESS OVER THE CUBA...AND SUBSEQUENTLY
WRAPPING UP INTO A CLOSED LOW. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP...THOUGH EXACTLY WHERE IS NOT CLEAR AT
THIS TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE ON DEEPER MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER WRAPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE JUMP IN LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND
ALSO THE REASON FOR THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM AEX TO LFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY.

BEYOND THIS POINT...DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SFC LOW
BECOME MORE APPARENT AND MORE IMPORTANT. THOUGH MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON TUE...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON
WHERE THIS GENESIS WILL OCCUR. IN ONE CAMP IS THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND SREF MEAN...WHICH POINT TOWARD DEVELOPMENT IN
THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE BAHAMAS OR SOUTHEAST FL. IN THE OTHER IS THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS...WHICH FAVOR THE SFC LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF. BY HOOK OR BY CROOK...IN THE END THEY ALL
WIND UP IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST BY THE WEEKEND...A SPREAD ROUGHLY FROM HOUMA LOUISIANA ON
THE FAR WEST END AND PANAMA CITY ON THE FAR EAST END. GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT THAT THE SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN...INITIALLY COLD
CORE...AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACK THROUGH...MARGINAL BUT NOT
UNFAVORABLE SSTS AND SHEAR THAT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE
EASTERN/NORTHERN GULF...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD RESULT. INDEED...FSU MODEL PHASE ANALYSIS CHARTS
CONTINUE TO POINT TO A SYMMETRIC BUT SHALLOW WARM CORE LOW.

THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD OF COURSE BE ULTIMATELY
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK...THOUGH PRETTY MUCH ANY
TRACK EAST OF THE AREA WILL SPARE US THE WORST...WHICH WITH A
SYSTEM LIKE THIS IS TYPICALLY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.

FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL SHOW ONLY FRINGE EFFECTS FROM THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH MEANS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND TRACKS NORTH TO
NORTHWEST. KEPT MARINE HAZARDS AS I INHERITED THEM.

&&


WATER VAPER IMAGE FROM THIS MORNING. NOTE THE CLUSTER NORTH OF CUBA

[Joe-Nathan]

ONCE AGAIN, TALK ABOUT A "LOW" ENTERING GOM AND MAKING LANDFALL IN LA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
525 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 13-15KTS WITH GUSTS OVER
20KTS AFTER SUNRISE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER S FL
CONTINUES TO REMAIN MODERATELY TIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ONLY
MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET TODAY INTO THIS EVENING OVER KBPT/KLCH/KLFT
/KARA TERMINALS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COOL MORNING FOR MAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE UPPER 40S. NO WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 80...AND TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE
SAME.

LOW PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING PER LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...AND THIS FEATURE
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THIS LOW IN
BOTH STRENGTH AND LOCATION WHICH LEADS TO HIGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST GFS HAS A WEAK AND DIFFUSE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ERRATICALLY AROUND THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVERSELY...00Z ECMWF SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED SUBTROPICAL LOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF AND ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MANY OF THE
OTHER TROPICAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR
MAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GULF WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONES AT PRESENT.
THEREFORE..WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL TREND TOWARDS THE GFS IN THE MID-LONG RANGE AND BLEND
IN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM
AND MAY SEND OUT A RECONNAISSANCE MISSION TO INVESTIGATE LATER
TODAY IF NEEDED.

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW...EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL TRANSPORT MUCH HIGHER PWAT AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WELL AS SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.

MARINE...

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AND RISING SEAS FROM MIDWEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...AND SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES ALONG OUR COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

COLOR INFRARED SAT IMAGE FROM THIS MORNING

[Joe-Nathan]

Like you need to be told this:

Gale Warning

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NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2009

...PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AVAILABLE
THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEANS FOR A MORE DETAILED
FORECAST WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COASTLINE...

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
.SYNOPSIS...GALE CONDITIONS OVER NW WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 1007 MB LOW PRES OFF SW FL AND 1031
MB HIGH PRES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL DIMINISH BY THU
MORNING. BROAD TROUGHING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS TROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ORGANIZED
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED LINGER FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD
CHANNEL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS S OF 27N
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN.

SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
...GALE WARNING N OF 28N W OF 77W...
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...N OF 28N W OF 77W E WINDS 30 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. N OF 26N E OF 69W NE TO E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS
4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF BAHAMAS E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT...EXCEPT 5 TO 7 FT E OF 70W. W OF BAHAMAS SE
TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS W OF 67W.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N OF 25N W OF 68W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 14 FT IN E SWELL. N OF 25N E OF 68W E WINDS 15 TO 20
KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 74W E WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 25N E OF 74W SE TO S WINDS
10 TO 15 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. S OF 25N W OF 74W E TO SE WINDS E TO SE WINDS
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT W OF BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ELSEWHERE S OF 27N.
.FRI...N OF 27N W OF 70W E TO SE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20
KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N
E TO SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN NE SWELL. FROM 22N TO
25N E OF 73W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE S
OF 25N SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT E OF BAHAMAS...AND
1 TO 3 FT W OF BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N W
OF 77W...AND OVER SE PART.
.SAT AND SUN...N OF 28N W OF NE TO E WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO
15 KT...AND TO E TO SE 5 TO 10 KT SUN...EXCEPT FAR NE PART N TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
SUN...EXCEPT FAR NE PART 5 TO 7 FT. FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 71W E
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 28N SE TO S WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT...EXCEPT FAR OVER FAR E PART S TO SW
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL E OF
BAHAMAS...AND 2 TO 3 FT W OF BAHAMAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TSTMS E PART...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW PART.

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
.SYNOPSIS...A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 25N83W WILL SLOWLY MOVE W ALONG
25N REACHING 85W THIS EVENING...88W THU EVENING...AND 91W FRI
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LOUISIANA
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SURFACE
PRESSURE. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRES RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL ALLOW FOR GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
GMZ080-201530-
NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
.TODAY TROUGH THU NIGHT...E OF 93W N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. W OF 93W NE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
SPREADING INTO E PART.
.FRI AND SAT...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...EXCEPT W OF 95W
BECOMING VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KT LATE SAT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT E OF
93W... SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT W OF 93W LATE SAT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS E PART.
.SUN...E OF 93W W TO NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...EXCEPT FAR N PART
N TO NE 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. W OF 93W WINDS BECOMING SE TO S
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING 2 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS E PART..

MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
...GALE WARNING N OF 27N...
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...N OF 27N NE TO E WINDS 25 TO 35
KT...EXCEPT 30 TO 40 KT E OF 86W...DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT
EVERYWHERE LATE TONIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 10
FT LATE TONIGHT. FROM 24N TO 27N N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT AND BECOMING S WINDS E OF
LOW CENTER. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. S OF 24N N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
SHIFTING W TO NW TONIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N OF 28N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7
TO 10 FT. WITHIN 90 NM OF LOW CENTER WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT.
SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 25N W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6
TO 7 FT.
.FRI...N OF 28N E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. WITHIN 90
NM OF LOW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE SE TO S
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...EXCEPT SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT S OF 25N. SEAS
3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...N OF 27N SE TO S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. S
OF 27N S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

E GULF BETWEEN 81W AND 85W
...GALE WARNING N OF 27N...
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...N OF 27N NE TO E WINDS 30 TO 40
KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 10 FT LATE TONIGHT. FROM 25N TO 27N N TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 8 FT TONIGHT. S OF 25N S TO
SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TONIGHT N OF 24N.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N OF 25N E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 35
KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT S OF 28N LATE FRI. SEAS 7 TO 9
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 7 FT FRI. S OF 25N S TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20
KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SAT...N OF 28N E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. S OF
28N S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SUN...N OF 28N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. S OF
28N S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR RATHER WEAK TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRI. CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER FRI THROUGH SUN INCREASING TRADES IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC.

NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...S OF 19N E OF 80W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15
KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT...EXCEPT NW PORTION 6 TO 8 FT IN N SWELL...SUBSIDING TO
4 TO 6 FT WED NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N E OF
80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS NW PART.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S OF 18N E OF 81W NE TO E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS
3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL. ELSEWHERE VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FAR NW PART 3 TO 5 FT IN N SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS INCREASING NW PART.
.SAT AND SUN...W OF 85W SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT. E OF 85W E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N PART.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2009

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT NERLY WINDS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE NE U.S.
COAST...WITH THE SW LEG OF IT STILL RIDGING OVER THE REGION.
HELPING THIS RIDGING IS THE NON TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (SFC
AND ALOFT) ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF
THE TWO HAVE CONTINUED TO BRING UN-SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATION OF THE COOLING EFFECTS FROM THE
RIDGE OVER THE EAST...TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE NON TROPICAL LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST
TONIGHT INTO THU AS THE LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES WEST INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. BEING THAT THE UPPER LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THIS SFC
SYSTEM...ITS CHANCES OF ACQUIRING TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER...ITS STILL BRING STRONG WINDS
OF SCA TO LOW END GALE OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO ITS INTERACTION
WITH THE NE U.S. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
EXPECT THESE STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT THE REGION...ONLY LOW END SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OFF THE SC LA COAST...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER C AND SC LA...WITH LESS EXPECTED
OVER SE TX...FOR THU THRU MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE SHRA/TSRA
DISTRIBUTION FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND BECOME LESS CONFIDENT...AS
THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE SFC TROF/WEAK LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THUS...ONLY TWEAKED THE INHERITED
POPS...KEEPING THE HIGHEST OVER C AND SC LA...GRADUALLY DECREASING
FURTHER WEST OF THE LOW. SAY GOODBYE TO THE 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S EXPECTED THU MORNING...WITH UPPER 60S/NEAR 70S
EXPECTED BY MEMORIAL DAY.

DML

MARINE...
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. A NON
TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST.

DML

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gale Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

PASCAGOULA TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 60 NM

GMZ550-212130-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
400 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
409 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST...

.OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A NON
A NON TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND MOST LIKELY TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST.

GMZ475-212100-
/O.EXT.KLCH.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-090522T1800Z/
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
409 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT FRIDAY.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET...THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
456 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER
CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE NON TROPICAL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (SFC AND ALOFT) ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS LOW DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
...WITH MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA STILL OVER FL AND BAHAMAS. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...TEMPS ARE ABOUT 15+ DEGREES WARMER THIS MORNING...AS
THE LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER HAS TAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF BRINGING THE SFC LOW ACROSS SE LA
BY SAT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON TROPICAL...AS THE MID/UPPER
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SFC. THUS THE CHANCES OF
ACQUIRING TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...THE NW FRINGES OF THE WINDFIELD IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE SC LA COAST...SEE MARIN DISCUSSION BELOW.

AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS LA...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FROM SE TO NW OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE BEST
COVERAGE WILL STILL BE OVER C AND SC LA...WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER SE TX. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER SE TX...LOWER/MID 80S OVER C AND SC LA DUE
TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE.

BY TUE AND WED...LINGERING MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH WEAK LIFT
ALOFT...WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY 20%-30% AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT LOW TEMPS UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S DURING THIS PERIOD.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
THE NON TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY SAT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS TO 20 KTS...AND
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET (MAINLY IN SE SWELLS) BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES
OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST...THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE CENTER OF THE
BROAD LOW MOVES CLOSER TO SE LA BY FRI EVENING...WINDS WILL RELAX
BELOW SCA...WITH SEAS TO SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.

DML

&&

The humidity has returned!

[Joe-Nathan]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
531 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMON. SEAS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 8 TO 11 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES FROM
HAN**** COUNTY MISSISSIPPI TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE TIDES OF AROUND TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND SATURDAY.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NEAR RED RIVER LANDING...BATON ROUGE AND DONALDSONVILLE. MINOR
FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER NEAR MORGAN
CITY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST TODAY AND ONSHORE SATURDAY. IT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
55...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEW ORLEANS...BILOXI AND GULFPORT.
STORM TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED
SIX INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES FROM
HAN**** COUNTY MISSISSIPPI TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE TIDES AROUND TWO
FEET ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST TODAY AND INLAND SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PILE
WATER ALONG EAST FACING SHORES AND FURTHER INCREASE TIDES ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL ALSO
IMPACT AREAS SURROUNDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS...AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE PROTECTION
LEVEES AGAIN ON SATURDAY.


...TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL IMPACT THE AREAS
SURROUNDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LOWER LAFOURCHE. TIDES ARE
CURRENTLY 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. THESE HIGH TIDE LEVELS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE BROAD CENTER OF THE NON TROPICAL SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF KMOB...BEGINNING
TO DRIFT NW THIS MORNING. ALOFT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DISPLACED
ABOUT 200 MILES FURTHER NNW OF THE SFC CENTER. ACROSS OUR REGION...A
BROKEN LINE OF SHRA DEVELOPED A COUPLE HOURS AGO ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS 20-60NM SOUTH OF CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70...ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN BRINGING THE SFC LOW ACROSS SE LA BY
THIS TIME ON SAT. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON TROPICAL...AS
THE MID/UPPER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BROADEN OUT WITH TIME...BUT
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE SFC CENTER. THUS THE CHANCES OF ACQUIRING
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS REMAIN LOW.

AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS LA...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL FURTHER INCREASE FROM SE TO NW OVER THE
REGION TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER OF MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SAT. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL STILL BE OVER C AND
SC LA...WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER SE TX. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S/NEAR 70...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER SE TX...LOWER/MID
80S OVER C AND SC LA DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE.

AS THE SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INLAND AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENS SUN THRU TUE...THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER BROADEN OVER THE
REGION...THUS KEEPING AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BY WED AND THU...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT WITH LESS LIFT ALOFT. THIS SHOULD STILL PROVIDE AT
LEAST 20% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
THE WESTERN CIRCULATION OF THE NON TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BRING NE WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS. WHILE MSAS ESTIMATED WINDS ARE NOT QUITE SCA
CRITERIA...SE SWELLS OF 5 TO 7 FEET IS LIKELY CONTINUING ACROSS
THE OUTER REACHES OF THE 20-60NM ZONE OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST...THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU
10 AM THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FURTHER WEAKENS AS THE BROAD CENTER APPROACHES SE LA.

DML

&&

MAPS:
WIND GUST:


WAVE HEIGHTS:


IR SAT:

[Joe-Nathan]

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
503 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST WILL MOVE INLAND LATER THIS MORNING. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN FALLING TO NORMAL LEVELS LATER TODAY AS WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING.

...TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING...

LAKE LEVELS WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING WHICH
MAY INUNDATE BOAT LAUNCH AREAS AND ACCESS ROADS TO THE LAKE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE STEADILY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
805 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A CURRENTLY NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MISSISSIPPI OR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTLINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON-TROPICAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE THE LOW COULD ACQUIRE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS PRIOR TO MOVING ASHORE. THE MAIN IMPACTS ON OUR
REGION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION. AS WE GET INTO THE WORK
WEEK...BEGINNING TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE MAY ARE
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$



THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH THREE...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ONE OR TWO PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
727 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

.UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...LIFTING INTO MVFR AND LOWER VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A NORTHWARD ADVANCING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...AND WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING MAX HEATING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009/DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE N-CNTL GULF OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SE OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SYSTEM LOOKS MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED
THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH A GOOD BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE
NERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. REGIONAL 88DS ONLY SHOW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OCCURRING TO THE NORTH
AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTER. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
THERE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP ONGOING.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS PACKAGE IS ONCE AGAIN THE EVENTUAL
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. SHORT-RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON BRINGING THE
SYSTEM ASHORE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH
THE NAM SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER NRLY MOTION THEREAFTER. STAYED
CLOSER TO A ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH THEIR MORE
CONSISTENT MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. BIG QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO WITH
POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL MODEL QPFS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
RAIN AHEAD AND EAST OF THE LOW WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF ITS LIFETIME. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND
EXPECT MORE OF PRECIP TO FINALLY WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER
IN THE SHORT TERM STILL EXPECTING MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO OUR
EAST AND NORTH...AND THUS TOOK A CHANCE AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY/TONIGHT BACK TO ONLY THE CHANCE RANGE WITH
HIGHEST POPS ERN 1/3 TODAY AND NERN CORNER TONIGHT. OBVIOUSLY ATTM
NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH RAINFALL TO WARRANT ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCHES
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

BY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO ARKANSAS AND
A GOOD SRLY LOW-LEVEL FETCH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT AREAWIDE AND WENT WITH A BLANKET
50 POP FOR EVERYONE. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORK WEEK WE GET BACK
INTO A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERN WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES
LINGERING AND CONVECTION BEING DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON HEATING AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT. KEPT POPS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE ERN 1/3 OF THE AREA WHERE MORE SRLY WINDS
FEEDING INTO THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

MARINE...AS EXPECTED CURRENTLY SEEING STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE
ERN WATERS WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW CENTER. HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE
STILL WELL BELOW ANY CAUTION OR ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO FLAGS ARE
ANTICIPATED ATTM. MAINLY LIGHT SRLY FLOW EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
449 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS IN THE WAKE OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE WEAKENING. BY TUESDAY...RAIN
CHANCES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE MAY ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
358 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER W-CNTL MISSISSIPPI NEAR GREENWOOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS LOW REMAINS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH WHOLE
SYSTEM PUSHING NWWD TOWARD SERN ARKANSAS. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
CENTER. OF INTEREST THOUGH IS A FEEDER BAND TYPE OF FEATURE
WRAPPING INTO THE STORM FROM ALONG THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE ALL THE
WAY INTO SERN MISSISSIPPI AND AROUND THROUGH ALABAMA INTO THE
PRIMARY RAIN SHIELD NORTH OF THE CENTER. STORMS HAVE BEEN RATHER
FRISKY ALONG THIS BAND IN MOISTURE-RICH AREA OF GOOD CONVERGENCE.
BUT ELSEWHERE AROUND THE FORECAST AREA PRECIP IS BASICALLY NIL ATTM.

PRIMARY FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE THE LOW
AND ITS EFFECTS (OR RELATIVE LACK THEREOF) ON THE FORECAST AREA.
ALL SHORT-RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE LOW WNWWD INTO
ARKANSAS TODAY BEFORE GENERALLY MEANDERING AROUND AND EVENTUALLY
WASHING OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
PRECIP SHIELD HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE CENTER
SINCE ITS ARRIVAL ONSHORE YESTERDAY. BUT AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM
LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA.
HOWEVER OBSERVED 00Z AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
OUR MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS WILL LINGER. DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WHICH
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CONVECTION. THEREFORE STUCK WITH INHERITED
GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. BROUGHT THE POPS
FOR THIS EVENING BACK TO LOW END CHANCE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
LACK OF GOOD FOCUS MECHANISMS. MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WEAKENING AND A LITTLE FARTHER
FROM THE AREA HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WE LINGER IN A MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL HEATING AND MESO BOUNDARIES FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THUS HAVE HELD ONTO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR EACH DAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH NIGHT. LONGER RANGE
MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER MAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD. GUESS WE`LL SEE...

&&

.MARINE...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED ATTM WITH MAINLY A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING AND LINGERING.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

THANK YOU TO ALL THOSE THAT HAVE AND ARE CURRENTLY SERVING.


MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
449 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING UNDER DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND ON AREA TIDAL
LAKES AND BAYS...
A VERY UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS WILL BE IN BANDS OR CLUSTERS AND WILL BE CONDUCIVE OF
PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS WELL AS REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAINFALL. MOVEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE NORTH AT 15 KNOTS. WATERSPOUTS NEAR SHORE MAY
APPROACH OR MOVE ONTO THE NEAR SHORE AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP A VIGILANT EYE ON THE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS OBSERVED. IF WATERSPOUTS ARE
SIGHTED...NAVIGATE AT RIGHT ANGLES AWAY FROM THE DIRECTION OF
THE SPOUT`S MOVEMENT. WATERSPOUTS ARE CAPABLE OF CAPSIZING WATER
CRAFT. ENSURE ALL ON BOARD ARE WEARING APPROVED PERSONAL FLOTATION
DEVICES WHILE ON THE WATER TODAY.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
441 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECTING ONE MORE DAY OF CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. WIND
PROFILES ARE SUCH THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR BECOMES TEMPORARILY ESTABLISHED
OVER THE REGION IN THE MID LEVELS. A COOL FRONT WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.


$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CALCASIEU PASS. THESE
STORMS ARE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AND TOWARDS EASTERN LOUISIANA.
ELSEWHERE... AREAS OF FOG ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FOR SE TX AND SRN LA TODAY WITH CEILING
LOWERING AND GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR TSTM ACTVTY.

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2009/

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING EAST
ACROSS CAMERON PARISH INTO ACADIANA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING
INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY
MAX EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. FURTHER CONVECTION FIRING UP DEEPER IN THE COASTAL
WATERS ALONG MEAN TROF AXIS.

MAP ANALYSIS SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SPINNING OVER
ARKANSAS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COMING IN AT AROUND 1.7 INCHES
TODAY....THIS NEAR 40 PERCENT ABOVE THE NORM.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TODAY YIELDING LIKELY AND IN LINE WITH HIGHER
MOS NUMBERS. AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH NO CAP...TRIGGER TEMPS
BEING MET...LOW LFC`S TO ENHANCE OUTFLOW GENERATED CONVECTION AND
FURTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMING ALL COMBINED SUGGEST LIKELY
IN ORDER. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS STORM MOTION
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE ORDER OF ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

RAIN CHANCES FALL BACK INTO LINE TO MORE SEASONABLE POPS FOR MID-
WEEK AS ARKANSAS LOW TREKS NORTH AND PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM
TROF ALLOWING FOR MODEST RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DEEPENING
TROF AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

MARINE...A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES. A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF OFFSHORE FLOW. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
640 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

.NOW...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE COASTAL PARISHES
OF ST MARY AND IBERIA. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 15
MPH.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
544 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY. NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
638 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BURN-OFF AROUND 13Z
WILL LOW CEILINGS FOR LCH AND BPT. A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING ST MARY AND IBERIA PARISHES. EXPECTING
VFR WEATHER ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009/

DISCUSSION...NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. JUST A BIT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD COMING OFF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS SOUTHEAST PROPAGATING MCS. SURFACE OBS INDICATING SOME LIGHT
FOG ACROSS THE AREA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING
INTO THE REGION AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROF LEFT IN WAKE OF LOW NOW
OVER MISSOURI SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
EXITING TROF AND LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTH CONUS RIDGE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO DROP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH
TODAY...WHILE SEEING PROJECTED TRIGGER TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES.
HENCE WILL BE CARRYING LOWER POPS THAN MEMORIAL DAY. WILL CARRY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES NORTH AS LATEST NAM/WRF INDICATING
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OUT OF TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
LOUISIANA LATE IN THE DAY.

BETTER RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AS COOL FRONT APPROACHES AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN CONCERT WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BOUNDARY TO PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING. DRY WEATHER PATTERN
FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRIER LESS HUMID AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING.

MARINE...A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY UNTIL A WEAK COOL FRONT ADVANCES OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
424 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM WINDS
AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
715 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

.AVIATION...SHALLOW GROUND FOG LIFTING TO TEMPO PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH VLIFR CIG/VIS BURNING OFF TO
VFR BY 14Z. ACADIANA TERMINALS WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS AROUND MID-DAY
WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. VCTS BEFORE NOON FOR BPT
AND AROUND NOON LOCAL TIME FOR ACADIANA TERMINALS WITH A FEW CBS
ELSEWHERE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED EARLY. A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRODUCE MVFR VIS IN FOG.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009/
DISCUSSION...A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING
IS KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN INTO SE TX AND SW LA LATER TODAY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE THREAT FROM WINDS AND HAIL.

THIS LATEST FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE STALLING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWER DEW POINTS
WILL HELP TO HOLD DOWN THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
441 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LVL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS PUSHING A COOL
FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. THIS LATEST
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
THE GOOD NEWS IS DRIER NORTHERLY AIR WILL LOWER THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL MAKE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES A BIT MORE
COMFORTABLE.

DIRER AIR WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ON NORTHERLY
WINDS. WINDS BECOMING EAST AND FINALLY SOUTHEAST BY LATE
SATURDAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL THEN SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL
BECOME REESTABLISHED.


THE NEXT SHOT AT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA WILL LEND TO VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. PATCHY LIGHT FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT A FEW SITES THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT VISBYS NO LOWER THAN 4 SM...IMPROVING BY 14Z.
WITH THE HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A FEW CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
REMAINING SCT AROUND 4-5 KFT...THEN DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS TO BECOME LT/VRBL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2009/
SYNOPSIS...

THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST THROUGH GEORGIA TO ACROSS LOUISIANA...
BEFORE BREAKING DOWN ACROSS TEXAS.

FURTHER SOUTH...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WESTWARD THROUGH LAKE
OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...DIFFUSING UPON APPROACHING
BROWNSVILLE. THIS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT...ADVANCING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
STALLING AND WASHING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.

FURTHER-UP...A DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS
SPLIT THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
STREAMING THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA TO ACROSS TEXAS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ARE PROPAGATING
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TO ACROSS LOUISIANA.

BY WEDNESDAY...A SHARP RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...AS THE CUT-OFF LOW DEEPENS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...THE GULF RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED...ITS
ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT RECENT MIDWEST AIR...
MODIFYING OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS...NORTHWARD. BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOUT SEASONAL.

FOR TONIGHT...GULF STRATUS WILL RETURN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AS THE RETURN FLOW PERSISTS. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR
WHERE THE RETURN FLOW IS WEAKER.

FOR TUESDAY...ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS PASSING PACIFIC SHORTWAVES LIFT AIR THAT IS SLOWLY
DE-STABILIZING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE GULF WARM FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL INDUCE
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY. THE ATTENDANT WAVE
CYCLONE WILL TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEAST...DRAGGING A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT
ACROSS LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...AS
THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVES BREAKDOWN...BEING REPLACED BY MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVES EMANATING OUT OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. SEE SHARP
RIDGE MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS.

THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM WITH THESE
COLORADO SHORTWAVES...DEPICTING GRID-SCALE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN LOUISIANA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PURPORTED FAVORABLE SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THESE COLORADO SHORTWAVES
COULD ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THIS AUTHOR IS UNCOMFORTABLE
MENTIONING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
639 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.AVIATION...
WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES
FROM NEAR PATTERSON TO BEAUMONT...DELINEATING WEAK NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO THE NORTH...INCLUDING SOUTHERN TAF SITES...AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN A FOCUS
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS MORNING
AS INDICATED BY KLCH 88D. INCLUDED VCSH FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WASHES OUT...ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AREAWIDE BY 15-16Z. IN ADDITION...SOME
LIGHT PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AT KAEX AND KLCH
(WHERE A QUICK STEP OUTSIDE INDICATED SOME SMOKE WAS MIXED IN).

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCTS AT TAF SITES...BUT MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE (AND THUS NEED TO
ADD A PROB OR TEMPO GROUP) AT KLFT AND KARA LATER TODAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009/

SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST-TO-WEST ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST LATER TODAY...WASHING OUT BY WEDNESDAY.

A MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE EXITING SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
JUST BEFORE NOON ON THURSDAY.

FURTHER-UP...A DEEP CUT-OFF LOW JUST OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST. SEVERAL PACIFIC SHORTWAVES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CUT-OFF...ARE PROPAGATING EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH DESERT MEXICO TO ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY...AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...IN RESPONSE TO FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE
CUT-OFF LOW. THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVES WILL BE DIVERTED NORTHWARD
AROUND THE RIDGE...BEFORE EMERGING OUT OF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE...TRAVELING SOUTHEAST.

DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...ADVECTING GULF AIR WILL ASCEND SLANTWISE UPON ENCOUNTERING
THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH
RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON...AS PASSING PACIFIC
SHORTWAVES AUGMENT THE GENTLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPGLIDING
(OR SLANTWISE ASCENDING) GULF AIR.

DESPITE THE ABOVE REASONING...CONFIDENCE IN TODAY`S FORECAST IS
LOW...DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GFS GUIDANCE. THE GFS DEPICTS A GRID-SCALE THUNDERSTORM...ITS
SIZE ENCOMPASSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
GRID-SCALE THUNDERSTORM INDUCES FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS ON THE
STATIONARY FRONT...VICINITY THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

CONSEQUENTLY...I WILL RELY ON PERSISTENCE FOR THE RAIN CHANCES
AND THE WIND SPEED AND WIND DIRECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CEASE. THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLANTWISE ASCENDING GULF AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE. THE PRIMARY CHANGE WILL BE THE APPEARANCE OF SHORTWAVES
EMANATING OUT OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THE MORE FAVORABLE
WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLORADO SHORTWAVES MAY ORGANIZE
THE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ONCE AGAIN REMAINS LOW...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEM. THE GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER GRID-SCALE THUNDERSTORM...ITS SIZE
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

A MIDWEST HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON THURSDAY.
THE POST FRONTAL STRATUS (OR WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS) WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
502 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND/OR
STRONG WINDS THE LIKELIEST THREATS.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND STALLS BRIEFLY NEAR THE COAST.
STORMS TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009
.AVIATION...

FOR THE 03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
CURRENTLY...SOME PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING AT KAEX/KLCH/KBPT TAF
SITES. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE...AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING. WITH MAX HEATING AND LEFT OVER SMALL-SCALE
BOUNDARIES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE BY MID AFTERNOON AND HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FROM
ROUGHLY 18Z TO 22Z AT ALL TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH FOR SHOWERS TO RE-
DEVELOP AND WILL MENTION VCSH AFTER 04/08Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
UPPER ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW CWA BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO AND ANOTHER
OVER CNTRL TX. THESE SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGER WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...FURTHER TO
THE WEST...A DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS APPROACHING THE CNTRL CA COAST.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA WITH KLCH 00Z
SOUNDING INDICATING PW OF 1.8 INCHES...UP FROM 1.2 INCHES MONDAY
NIGHT.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WAS
RIDGING ACRS THE SERN STATES INTO LA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED ACRS NE TX INTO SE OK WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW
TOWARD CNTRL TX. WINDS ARE MOSTLY CALM ACRS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THREE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF DISTURBANCE
EAST OF THE AREA. TO THE WEST...A DECAYING MCS IS MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARD SE TX. NORTH OF THIS...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING EAST OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS THE
COLD FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA. FOR THIS MORNING...WHAT WAS
ONCE OF SOLID LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS BREAKING UP QUICKLY AS IT
APPROACHES A TRINITY TO HOUSTON LINE. THIS LINE HAS PRODUCED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR MORE STORMS
LATER THIS MORNING OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE GULF SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP A SFC REFLECTION LATER
TODAY NEAR THE SE LA COAST WHICH WILL MOVE NE INTO THE SERN
STATES. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SOUTH CNTRL LA BEGINNING THIS
MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE AFTN. MEANWHILE...THE
LOW OVER SE OK WILL BE PULLED EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES
ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST...IT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH THIS
APPROACHING FRONT...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION...EXPECT ABOUT 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BY THE AFTN.

AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTN...BUT...LIKE
YESTERDAY...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS THE LIKELIEST THREATS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AFTER
06Z...AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND STALLS BRIEFLY NEAR THE
COAST. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT GAIN CONTROL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WARMER
THAN NORMAL AFTNS AND MORNING LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME BRIEFLY ON
FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

That is a big 'blob' in the Northern GOM:

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2009

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED THIS MORNING AT THE KAEX/KLFT/KARA TAF
SITES WITH IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THESE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BY
MID-MORNING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS ALREADY
BEING OBSERVED...AS A SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS LESSENED THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
RISK FOR STORMS. WILL ONLY HAVE A MENTION OF VICINITY STORMS AT THE FAR
EASTERN TAF SITES (KAEX/KLFT/KARA) THIS AFTERNOON...AS DECENT
MOISTURE HANGS IN THAT AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
LARGESCALE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE 4-CORNERS
REGION OF NEW MEXICO. UPPER AIR SOUNDING WERE RELATIVELY MOIST
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LCH SOUNDING AROUND 1.85 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER. HOWEVER...VAD WIND PROFILES AT KPOE AND KLCH ALREADY
SHIFTING WEST AND NORTHWEST WHICH WILL LEAD TO FALLING MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE..THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE
AREA FROM TEXARKANA SOUTHWEST TO COLLEGE STATION. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WINDS WERE ALREADY WEST OR NORTHWEST DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LOUISIANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
FORMING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS MORNING NEAR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AS THE MID LEVEL STEERING CURRENT HAS
TURNED FROM THE NORTHWEST.

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST ACOSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS OF LOUISIANA. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND BEGINS TO PICK UP SPEED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS LOUISIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WE ARE EXPECTING A VERY NICE DAY
ON FRIDAY AS SKIES CLEAR WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ENTERS THE AREA. AGAIN...VERY NICE WEATHER TO END THE
FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS IN EARNEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RAIN MAY
RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL LIKELY HELP
PUSH UP RAIN CHANCES BY MIDWEEK. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO TELL HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH BEFORE WASHING OUT. RIGHT NOW...WOULD
BE SURPRISED IF IT GOT TO LAKE CHARLES IF AT ALL.

MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLOW
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST THROUGH OUT THE DAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LOWER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EARLY MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION OVER
WEST TEXAS IS ALSO STREAMING INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST RIDGES DOWN INTO
THE REGION...WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING IN DEW POINT READINGS THE RESULT.

RUA

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY WEATHER-WISE ON THIS FRIDAY. CLOUDINESS AT
THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK-UP AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALSO THIN AS CONVECTION OVER WEST
TEXAS DIMINISHES. THE RESULT SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON
WITH COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR EARLY JUNE AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING LOWER THAN NORMAL
HUMIDITY VALUES.

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE DRY AIRMASS...SHOULD MAKE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME 5F TO 10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS
AROUND 60F NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH.

NO RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER OLD MEXICO GRADUALLY EXPANDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PUT A LID ON THE ATMOSPHERE
AND SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO RETURN.

AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO HANG ON FROM NORTHERN OLD MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION...AND THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MORE LIKE THE SUMMER MUGGIES WITH HEAT INDICES BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 100F.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WINDS OVER THE OUTER WESTERN ZONES ARE CLOSE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION CRITERIA ACCORDING TO LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS. THESE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&