NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
451 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS AGAIN TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MUCH COOLER MORNING VERSUS YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH LIKELY AIDED IN THE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER YESTERDAY WAS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA...AS DENOTED BY THE ROTATING CLOUD MASS OVER THE SABINE
RIVER. RADAR IS QUIET AT THIS TIME.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND TEMPS FOR THE DAY
1 PERIOD...BUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.
SEVERAL CONFLICTING SIGNS BRING UNCERTAINTY TO THE POP FORECAST
FOR TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AT THIS TIME...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF FEATURE
SHOWS IT REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDED LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AS SHOWN ON MODEL TIME HEIGHT PLOTS
WOULD SUGGEST AN ENHANCEMENT IN COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS...MODELS OTHER
THAN THE 4.0 KM WRF SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION
TODAY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TOYED
WITH RAISING POPS FOR TODAY BUT WILL KEEP IN LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW VERY UNSTABLE AND DEEPLY MIXED
INVERTED V PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND
-10C...SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN TODAY. THESE H5 TEMPS ARE
RATHER COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND APPARENTLY AIDED IN THE
UNUSUALLY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL REPORTS YESTERDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...NAM AND GFS TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW WIND
PROFILES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY.
COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL
STILL LEAD TO TEMPS NEARING OR BREAKING A COUPLE OF RECORDS...WITH
ARA THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO BREAK A RECORD HIGH.

AFTER TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO REORIENT ITSELF MORE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO TEXAS AND USHER
DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE CWA...KEEPING ANY PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL
AT BEST. AT THE SAME TIME...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE WITH MARINE INFLUENCE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE
WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODELS PROG CENTER OF H5 RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL LIKELY START WARMING TEMPS
BACK UP INTO THE UNUSUALLY HOT RANGE. HAVE MADE ONLY NEGLIGIBLE
CHANGES TO THE DAY 2-7 PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

HARD FOR THIS FORECASTER TO BELIEVE BUT AFTER NEARLY 7
YEARS...THIS WILL BE MY LAST FORECAST FOR WFO LAKE CHARLES. FROM
ONE ENDING...A NEW BEGINNING...AND THE SKY`S THE LIMIT.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NO
HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE AS FOLLOWS.

SITE                 RECORD    YEAR    SINCE

ALEXANDRIA            101      1932    1892
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR   98      1911    1901
LAKE CHARLES          100      1911    1895
LAFAYETTE              98      1972    1893
NEW IBERIA             96      1977    1948

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  97  73  94  72  93 /  30  30  20  10  20
KBPT  97  73  94  73  93 /  30  30  20  10  20
KAEX  99  71  95  71  95 /  30  30  20  10  20
KLFT  98  73  94  72  93 /  30  30  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHAMBURGER 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
345 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN
PLACE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE ERN SEA BOARD WHILE AN
ERLY WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE CNTL GULF COAST STATES.
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
SITTING OFF THE SERN LA COAST SUPPLYING ONLY A GOOD BIT OF BLOWOFF
CIRRUS OVER THE ERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL ATTM.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
RIDGING ALOFT KEEPING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT BAY FOR THE MOST
PART. BEST CHANCE FOR BENEFICIAL RAINS LOOKS TO BE THE ERN ZONES...
AND MORE SPECIFICALLY THE NERN ZONES...WHERE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERLY WAVE IS PROGGED IN THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS. STILL WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS CONVECTION BREAKING
OUT AM ONLY GOING WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THIS REGION ATTM.
WATER VAPOR AND 00Z U/A ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS TODAY...A SMALL IMPROVEMENT FROM THE PLENTIFUL TRIPLE-
DIGITS WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE.

LAST REMAINING SMALL SHOT AT PRECIP COMES TOMORROW WITH THE
LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
THE LACK OF A GOOD FOCUS OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. BEYOND TOMORROW THE
RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT BACK SWD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED AT BEST AS
WELL AS LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WITH INLAND AFTERNOON TEMPS PUSHING 100 BY THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE NRN GULF FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  94  73  93  73  93 /  20  10  20  10  10
KBPT  94  72  92  73  93 /  20  10  20  10  10
KAEX  96  71  96  71  96 /  30  20  20  10  10
KLFT  94  73  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

25 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
457 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT MIFR VSBY (~5SM BR) BETWEEN
12-14Z. MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER N GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA OVER
AEX/LFT/ARA TERMINALS AGAIN TODAY...THUS PLACING TEMPO GROUP
DURING 20-24Z. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2011/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUING ITS GRIP OVER
THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW SPINNING OVER THE CNTL
GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING IT...MOVING ONLY SLOWLY WWD ACROSS
SERN/S-CNTL LA. MEANWHILE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AS WELL AS THE ERN SEA BOARD. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A
NEAR NORMAL PWAT VALUE (AROUND 1.3 INCHES) WITH A MEAN RH AROUND
50 PERCENT. CONCURRENTLY REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE WHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ATTM.

MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/FORECASTS THIS
MORNING. DID BUMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AS COMBO OF WEAK WAVE/SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE/BETTER
SFC CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ONCE HEATING COMMENCES. STILL ONLY WENT LOW END CHANCE
FOR THIS REGION WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG FOCUS MECHANISM. CARRIED
THE SMALL POPS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ALL CONVECTION DISSIPATES
WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ON THE WARM SIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA WITH READINGS
INTO THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED. LIKEWISE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR THE WRN ZONES (TO A WHOPPING 20 PERCENT) AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ERLY WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY CROSS THIS PORTION
OF THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND SFC CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED.

BEYOND FRIDAY IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT BACK SWD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY AS WELL AS LEAD
TO A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HAVE
KEPT AN ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NERN
ZONES INTO SUNDAY WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

BY MONDAY THE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AT
LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS AREA-WIDE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE NRN GULF FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  73  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  10
KBPT  92  73  93  73  93 /  20  20  20  10  10
KAEX  96  71  96  71  96 /  30  20  10  10  20
KLFT  93  72  94  73  95 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
608 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY THRU 13-14Z THIS MORNING OTHERWISE...VFR.
WITH ISO TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...VCTS LEFT IN ALL SITES
AFTER 18Z...DIMINISHING BY 01-02Z. S TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN 10KTS
OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011/

DISCUSSION...
OVERVIEW OF CURRENT CONDITIONS SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH
SFC HIGH CONTINUING TO RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW SPINNING OVER THE CNTL/ERN GULF. REGIONAL
88DS ARE PPINE WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ATTM.

SMALL POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS OF TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP IN OUR MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHILE BEING HELPED ALONG BY
ENERGY ROUNDING THE GULF LOW. FORECAST QPFS REMAIN QUITE LOW BUT
THE SPORADIC RAINS SHOULD HELP ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT LEAST
A LITTLE BIT IN THE AREAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE RAIN. BY SUNDAY THE
RIDGE ALOFT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY IS
PROGGED TO BUILD BACK SWD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY...AS WELL AS LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARM UP
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGHS OVER THE EXTREME NRN
ZONES ARE FORECAST TO PUSH TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE NRN GULF FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  94  73  94  72  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
KBPT  93  73  93  72  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
KAEX  96  70  96  71  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
KLFT  95  73  95  72  94 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
350 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO RANGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY THIS MORNING. CURRENT CONDITIONS LOCALLY ARE CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WHAT CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AT SURFACE BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE MOISTURE
DEPTH HAS BEEN DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE PROBLEM CONTINUES AND REMAINS THE 700MB
RIDGE ALOFT IS BLOCKING THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SE TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE AND MOVE INLAND. UNLESS OR UNTIL THIS
RIDGE MOVES OR BREAKS DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY REAL PRECIP... ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE MORE THAN HOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORMS. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE LATE SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN AND
GENERALLY GETS ERODED FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST AS STORMS SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT. BUT LOOKING AT ALL THE MODELS...THERE
IS NO INDICATION THAT THIS PATTERN IS ANYWHERE NEAR BREAKING.

BEAUMONT HAS RECEIVED ONLY 6.65 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE YEAR.
THEY ARE CURRENTLY AT 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE YEAR. NORMAL
IS AROUND 25.15 INCHES FROM JANUARY 1ST.

ALEXANDRIA HAS RECEIVED 12.12 INCHES AND STANDS AT 42 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THE NORMAL 30 YEAR CLIMATE IS 29.05 INCHES SINCE JANUARY
1ST.

LAFAYETTE HAS RECEIVED 13.03 INCHES FOR THE YEAR AND STANDS AT 47
PERCENT OF NORMAL. LAFAYETTE NORMS ARE 27.31 INCHES.

LAKE CHARLES...HAS RECEIVED THE MOST IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AT
14.69 INCHES AND IS AT 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE YEAR.

BUT THIS DOES NOT TELL THE WHOLE STORY AND THAT IS WE HAVE BEEN IN
THIS DROUGHT FOR OVER A YEAR.

THE OTHER PROBLEM WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...IS THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
WHICH ALLOWS FOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS AROUND 90 DEGREES.

WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN HOLDING AND TEMPS INTO THE 90S THERE IS
AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT... ALSO PERSONS OUTSIDE SHOULD BE DRINKING
PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKING BREAKS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  97  73  97  75  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  97  74  97  76  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  98  71  99  71  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  97  73  97  74  95 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

K. KUYPER 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
710 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING PARKED OVERHEAD WILL YIELD CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH VFR. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.


&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011/

..HEAT WAVE TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA TODAY...

DISCUSSION...
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SET
ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE CULPRIT IS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS FEATURE HAS SHUT DOWN ANY
VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD LEAD TO RAIN ACTIVITY.

THIS MORNING A DRY-LINE EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO A
STALLED FRONT IN THE KANSAS/MISSOURI AREA DOWN INTO GEORGIA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AND TRAVELING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE IS PUMPING GULF MOISTURE INTO SE TX AND
LOUSIANA WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 70S INLAND
LOCATIONS.

THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS PERSISTENCE AS
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE CENTURY MARK
OVER THE LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THE
HEAT INDEX WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST TO
AROUND 105 ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

TMRW LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
PICKUP A BIT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. PERSONS OUTSIDE
TODAY SHOULD REMEMBER TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS.

EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE ELEVATED FIRE THREAT
TO THE REGION AS LITTLE SURFACE MOISTURE IS LEFT AND PAN EVAPORATION
RATES REMAIN ABOVE .3 OF AN INCH PER DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  96  75  96  75  95 /  10   0   0   0  10
KBPT  96  75  96  77  95 /  10   0   0   0  10
KAEX 100  73 100  73  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
KLFT  96  73  96  75  96 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

UPDATE:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

SYNOPSIS
A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A
SURFACE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BY THIS WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND EARLY NEXT WEEK MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
A VIGROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RIDE NORTH OF THIS RIDGE NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE WITH THIS SYSTEM...DEPENDING UPON THE
STRENTGH OF THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OPPRESSING OUR AREA.



SHORT TERM
OPTIMISTICALLY WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE BUT BELOW CLIMO
ON RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
ZONES. NOTED THAT FARORABLE THETA RIDGING AT H8 AND H7 WOULD BE IN PLACE
ON THE GFS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITIES WITH K-INDICES IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE JASPER...ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE AXIS. THE CAP LOOKS BREAKABLE.



LONG TERM
THERE MAY BE A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TYPICALLY THIS ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST
A CLIMO OR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
EURO MODEL EXPLOITS THIS WEAKNESS AS AN EXTENSION OF THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND HINTS AT EVEN BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE
NEXT WEEK. WE SHALL SEE.

SWEENEY

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL
PRIMARILY BE FORECAST TEMPERATURES AS PROSPECTS FOR RAIN WILL BE
QUITE LOW.  MCS OVER NE TEXAS THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
AND SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE OVER EAST CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NW LOUISIANA THIS MORNING.  SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF OUTFLOWS LATER TODAY ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BUT WILL FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN 10
PERCENT OVER THIS AREA AT THIS MOMENT. BROAD ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DURING THAT TIME...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS.  GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALSO LIMIT
ANY ANY SEABREEZE CONVECTION. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BEGIN TO FORECAST A
SLOW BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A POTENTIAL RETURN FOR DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO FOR
NOW THINK POPS AOB 10 PERCENT SHOULD SUFFICE THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR
TEMPERATURES...AM CONFIDENT IN FORECASTING MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...MUCH HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVER
NORTHERN AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN
CENTERED NEAR THE NE GULF.  FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
ALONG THE SE TEXAS WATERS...BUT AT THIS TIME NO SCA HAZARDS ARE
ANTICIPATED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  95  74  95  77  94 /  10   0  10  10  10
KBPT  94  76  94  77  94 /  10   0  10  10  10
KAEX  97  73  99  74  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  96  74  96  75  93 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
619 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

.UPDATE...AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY WITH JUST A FEW TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE AREA.
WITH MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY...NO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.


&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011/

DISCUSSION...STAGNANT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND LEESIDE TROGHING OVER E CO/W TX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN HOT DAYS
AND VERY WARM NIGHTS WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GRADUAL DEEPENING MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD AID IN DEVELOPING A BETTER
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE BY WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MONDAY AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
FORTUNATELY...PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD NOT BE VERY STRONG SO
DAYTIME WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 15 MPH.

MARINE...ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR THE GULF WILL BE A SLIGHTLY TIGHER
GRADIENT OVER THE SE TEXAS WATERS.  SCEC CONDITIONS MAY POSSIBLE
OVER THIS REGION ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST BY MONDAY WITH
APPROACHING MID LATITUDE TROUGH WITH SCEC CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  95  77  94  78  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  94  77  94  78  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  98  74  97  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  96  75  94  76  94 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR ON TAP FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BROKEN STRATOCU AT ABOUT 2500
FT EARLY THIS MORNING YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011/

DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP
YESTERDAY NEAR THE NEW IBERIA AREA...OTHERWISE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED.  THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
MONDAY AS BROAD SURFACE AND UPPER ANTICYCLONES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. WILL KEEP DAYTIME POPS AT 5-10 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY. AS
DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY...APPROACH OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL AID IN
ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AM SATISFIED
WITH CURRENT POP FORECAST...BUT GFS PRECIP WATER FORECASTS ARE NOW
INDICATING WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED THOUGH TO SEE POPS INCREASE DURING FUTURE FORECAST
CYCLE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CREEPING UPWARD BUT STILL TOO LOW
EVEN FOR PERSISTENCE. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

MARINE...MODERATE ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO PREVAILS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN A LITTLE TIGHTER OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCEC CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  95  78  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  95  78  94  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  98  75  97  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  95  76  94  76  94 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

I AM BACK...STILL SAME CRAPPY WX.

AT LEAST I GOT 1.77" OF RAIN LAST WEEK.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
646 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH FEW-SCT CU AMID LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACING RIDGING CONTINUES EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP OUR REGION DRY FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP THIS SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE ONLY EFFECT LOCALLY COULD BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEA
HEIGHTS.

HEAT INDICES MAY BE A PROBLEM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS
NORTH OF HWY 190 SEEING HEAT INDICES GREATER THAN 105F IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO DECIDE IF HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE NECESSARY FOR TUESDAY.

KEPT SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO A WEAK MID-
LEVEL VORT MAX BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE RAIN WILL FALL IS LOW
SO HAVE 20 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF REGION EXCEPT SE TX.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...BUT COULDNT RULE OUT THE 20 PERCENT
AFTERNOON T-STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THANKS TO SEVERAL
WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  77  96  77 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  94  77  96  77 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  97  74  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  94  76  95  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...15
AVIATION...13 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
426 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
AS WE MONITOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE ONLY LOCAL
EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SWELLS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH PERHAPS EARLY THURSDAY.

COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THANKS
TO PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
I-10 CORRIDOR FROM LAKE CHARLES TO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN IN ACADIANA.

ON WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE RADAR. EXPECTING A LITTLE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SEA
BREEZE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.

KEEPING SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL
ACTUALLY BE SEEN.

TEMPERATURE-WISE WE WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 90S SOUTH TO UPPER 90S NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  77  93  78  93 /  20  10  20  10  20
KBPT  92  77  93  77  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
KAEX  97  75  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  20  20
KLFT  94  77  92  77  93 /  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS CYCLE WILL BE POPS
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 72 HOURS.  MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER SE OKLAHOMA HAS
DISSIPATED OVER ARKLATEX THIS EVENING.  ALSO...WIDELY SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF HAS ALSO DIMINISHED. BOTH AREAS
OF CONVECTION WERE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER TEXAS. MODELS FORECAST THE CORE OF ANTICYCLONE TO LIFT
NORTH WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
DO NOT EXPECT TO CHANGE THE POPS AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO
SEE IF LINGERING MOISTURE FROM ARLENE OR TROUGHING OVER THE SE U.S.
WILL BE A FACTOR IN LATER PERIODS.  OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OVER THE
WATERS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER WAVES IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
ARLENE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL HAVE SCEC FOR OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDES ARE ALSO RISING AND RUNNING AROUND 1/2 FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TIDES WILL NOT RUN MUCH
HIGHER THAN THIS...BUT WILL STILL MONITOR FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.  AS ARLENE MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO ON THURSDAY...WILL
SLOWLY LOWER SEAS BEGINNING FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  94  76  93  75  93 /  30  20  20  10  20
KBPT  96  76  96  75  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  93  72  94  73  96 /  30  20  20  10  20
KLFT  94  75  91  75  93 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
601 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MANY CHANGES FROM INHERITED FORECASTS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS LINGERING
AROUND THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE AT
KLFT/KARA WHERE CAPPING ALOFT IS WEAKEST WHILE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH PASSING WEAK VORT IS BEST. HOWEVER HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP JUST
A VICINITY MENTION ATTM AS TEMPO WORDING SEEMS A LITTLE EXTREME
FOR NOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM OR TWO AT ANY OF THE
REMAINING SITES SO HAVE KEPT THE VICINITY MENTION THERE AS
WELL...BUT NOT EXPECTING QUITE THE COVERAGE AS AT THE SERN SITES.
BY NIGHTFALL EXPECTING ALL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE LEAVING BEHIND
A CALM VFR NIGHT WITH LIKELY JUST SOME BLOWOFF CIRRUS LINGERING.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION OVER ACADIANA HAD DIMINISHED WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH ARKLATEX REGION. THIS MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST POPS OF
20 PERCENT FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE SLOWLY SHIFTS NE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS
BEGIN TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE
PROFILE BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. CURRENT POPS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
AFTER TODAY LOOKS GOOD AS WELL WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS
MOMENT. TEMPS TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE.

MARINE...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IS FORECASTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY
TODAY.  ONLY REAL IMPACT OVER TO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES AND PERHAPS HIGHER SWELLS OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD LESSEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
EXTEND OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BY THE WEEKEND.  WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  95  76  95  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
KBPT  94  76  95  77  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
KAEX  97  73  98  74  99 /  20  10  20  10  20
KLFT  94  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
     LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
707 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. EXPECTING ANOTHER
MAINLY DRY DAY TODAY WITH AT BEST ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY...AND COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LACKING TO EVEN WARRANT A
VICINITY MENTION ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011/

DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG SEABREEZE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE LONE STORM DEVELOPED LATE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH OUTFLOW FROM ARLATEX MCS. THIS STORM TRACKED
INTO NORTHERN RAPIDES PARISH BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND LATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE SHOULD PROVIDE TRIGGER FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PWAT
FORECASTS OF 1.5 INCHES SUGGEST ISOLATED COVERAGE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.WILL EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND EARLIER SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT BY TUESDAY. CURRENT POPS FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY AND
BEYOND LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
WILL BE NEAR 105.

MARINE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY
BENIGN OVER THE WATERS...WITH JUST WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH ARLENE MAKING LANDFALL
YESTERDAY...SEAS HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWER OFFSHORE AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  94  76  95  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
KBPT  93  75  95  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
KAEX  98  74  98  74  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
KLFT  96  74  95  75  94 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

I have had rain (all be it small amounts) three of the last four days (.16" total).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
557 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY THRU 14Z AT LFT/LCH/BPT...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THIS...PLACED
VCTS BEGINNING AT 16Z FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA...AND 18Z FOR AEX. BEST
CHANCES FOR TSRA AFFECTING TERMINALS WILL BE BETWEEN 19-23Z AT THE
TIMES OF MAX HEATING. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011/

..AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX FROM 96 TO 104 DEGREES...

DISCUSSION...
STORMS MOVING DOWN INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVE PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN THE GULF
AROUND 50 TO 90 MILES SOUTH OF CALCASIEU PASS. STORMS ARE MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. TEMPS BY SUNRISE SHOULD BE IN THE MID
70S ACROSS THE LAKES REGION IN SE TX AND CNTRL LA...NEAR 80 AS YOU
MOVE TO THE COAST.

TODAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ALL THE KEYS ARE MOVING INTO PLACE TO ALLOW
FOR STORMS TO SWING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO
LOUISIANA... PRECIP WATER IS CURRENTLY ABOVE TWO INCHES...TEMP
WILL BE IN THE 90S AND WE WILL HAVE A WEAKENS ALOFT. THE HEAT
INDEX THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 96 TO 104 DEGREES.

THIS NEW PATTERN WHERE THE RIDGE SITS BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
LOOKS TO HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AS THIS HAPPENS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE RIDGE SETTLES BACK ON TOP OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. ONE
OF THE MAIN ADVANTAGES OF THE NEW PATTERN WILL BE MORE CLOUDS
WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS BACK A BIT AFTER TODAY. ALSO...ANY
RAINS THAT WE RECEIVE WILL NOT MAKE ANY IMPACT ON THE DROUGHT
THAT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  95  75  93  75  94 /  30  20  20  20  20
KBPT  95  75  94  75  95 /  20  20  20  10  20
KAEX  97  73  96  73  96 /  40  30  30  20  20
KLFT  94  75  93  75  94 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[jess]

I've been watching a large cluster of thunderstorms for the last few hours just to the north of your area. So far, it's holding together and could eventually have enough outflow to give you a little relief. The good thing, it's moving slowly. The bad thing is the intense cloud to ground lightning if it get's to your area.

Southeast Texas might get some of the system. I can only hope.

[Joe-Nathan]

GOT .29" of rain yesterday afternoon.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
309 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE
POPS. TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY. FIRST...BOUNDARY
JUST NORTH OF OVER THE ARKLATEX BROUGHT MCS INTO NW LOUISIANA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MCS HELD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. WHILE SOME SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BECOME FURTHER DIFFUSE TODAY SO MAY SEE A LITTLE LESS IN
DEVELOPMENT. THE SECOND FEATURE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEABREEZE
ESPECIALLY OVER ACADIANA SO HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE OVER THIS
REGION. TRANSITION TO A SLIGHTLY DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST AND RIDGE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE...ONLY A MODEST REDUCTION IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED. WILL THEREFORE HAVE LOW DIURNAL POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL.


&&

.MARINE...MAIN ISSUES WILL BE CONVECTION AS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND
PATTERN SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
TODAY AND THURSDAY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  76  93  76  93 /  40  20  30  20  20
KBPT  95  77  95  76  96 /  30  10  20  10  10
KAEX  94  74  94  74  94 /  40  40  30  20  20
KLFT  92  76  93  77  92 /  50  30  40  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

I have gotten RAIN 6 days out of the last 7 days.
Granted the total is a little over 1/2".

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
617 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2011

.AVIATION...
VFR WX AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME ESTABLISH. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2011/

DISCUSSION...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN DEVELOPED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
FORECAST AREA.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE AGAIN DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SOUTH OF VERMILION BAY AND EXTENDING
INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE THU 00Z SOUNDING REMAINS VIRTUALLY
UNCAPPED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.  WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS OVER
THE AREA TODAY BUT WILL GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER ACADIANA REGION
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE UPPER LOW WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY LOWER
PWATS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED DURING
THAT TIME SO WILL TREND TO LOW POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE HI RES ECMWF
HINTS AT DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER SHEAR AXIS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WILL THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD LESS AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER WESTWARD. AT THE
SURFACE...VERY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  76  93  76  92 /  20  10  20  10  20
KBPT  94  76  96  75  95 /  10  10  20  10  20
KAEX  95  73  94  74  94 /  20  10  20  10  20
KLFT  90  75  92  74  92 /  30  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

JUST A TRACE OF RAIN AT THE HOUSE YESTERDAY


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
330 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITES SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SPINNING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS COMBINED
WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH
A NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUSIANA AND THE EASTERN GULF COAST...OUR AREA WILL STILL SEE MORE THAN
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN PUMPING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LAKES AND BAYS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT
1-2 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO START FIRES IN DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS.

A REMINDER...BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  95  77  94  76  93 /  20  10  20  10  20
KBPT  94  76  94  76  94 /  20  10  20  10  20
KAEX  98  75  97  75  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
KLFT  95  76  94  76  94 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$