NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area

[Joe-Nathan]

Heat indices in the 100 by end of week!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
416 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 591DM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER OUR
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS
RIDGE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IN SOME
ORIENTATION OVER OUR CWA. THIS PROMPTS A HOT AND HUMID BUT DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR ON TAP. APPEARS THE ONLY POSSIBILITY FOR
PRECIP THIS WEEK WILL BE ON THURSDAY...WHEN BOTH MODELS DEPICT A
SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. ASSOCIATED MCS
DEVELOPMENT MAY MAKE A RUN FOR OUR NORTHERN BORDER BUT BULK OF ANY
RAINFALL STILL EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE CWA. SUMMER HAS
DEFINITELY ARRIVED!


&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING
DRY ONSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
654 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LEADING TO TEMPO MVFR/IFR AT SOME
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FOR
ANOTHER OUR OR TWO BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR...WHICH WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009/

DISCUSSION...

HOT HUMID AND DRY. THAT ABOUT SUMS UP THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND A STRONG
592DM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT 500MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF YET STIFLE
ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. DID SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOP YESTERDAY MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF MODEL SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND
AREAS TODAY ALTHOUGH NO OTHER MODELS AGREE. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TODAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. THUS WITH THIS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST...HAVE
GONE CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. WITH DEWPOINTS NOW AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE OVER 100
AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS WEEK.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS
EXPECTED.

[Joe-Nathan]

THERE IS A DOME OVER SW LA & SE TX. WE MIGHT GET SOME PRECIP ON THURSDAY NIGHT, MIGHT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
640 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...TRANSIENT LOW CIGS AND/OR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC CAUSING SOME
GRIEF THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009/
DISCUSSION...ONLY MINOR ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FOG MAY LINGER IN A FEW AREAS AFTER 12Z...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE 14Z. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SHORT WAVE ENERGY WEAKENING THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ENTER NORTHERN SECTION OF
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT DURING
THAT TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.

MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL MARINE WEATHER PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGELY MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH 06Z FORECAST SINCE I DID NOT
SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM IT. ONLY CHANGE OF
NOTE WAS TO DROP THE TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CIGS WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND A LOOK OUTSIDE BOTH INDICATING MUCH LESS CU
THIS MORNING THAN THERE WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. A LATE MORNING
CU FIELD IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT WILL PREVAIL AT VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009/
UPDATE...GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SVR WATCH 373.
DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
NORTHERN TX/LA THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF MCS HAVE MOVED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT BUT APPEARS THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL MISS
OUT ON RAIN FROM THESE SYSTEMS. NOCTURNAL MCS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT AND AT THIS TIME THINK THAT SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERTSORM ACTIVITY MAY REACH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL THEREFORE HAVE LOW POPS IN THE NORTHERN
PARISHES/COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT. GFS AND NAM PROG THE BOUNDARY TO
LIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES THIS WEEKEND AND WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

MARINE...BROAD ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
318 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE-BASED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND SETTLES OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US IS NO RAIN...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (+3 TO +5).

THE GOOD NEWS IS THE DEWPOINTS...WHILE IN THE LOWER 70S...DO NOT GET
HIGH ENOUGH TO CREATE EXTREME HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ONLY
GETTING TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK OR MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THAT
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER...AND WORKING
OUTDOORS FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

MARINE WISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THANKS TO THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.

LONG-RANGE WEATHER MODELS SHOW OUR REGION IS IN STORE FOR AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF WEEKS OF WARMER...AND DRIER WEATHER. WITH MOST OF THE
REGION ALREADY IN AN ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITION...WE WILL BE MONITORING
THE POSSIBILITY OF US RETURNING TO AT LEAST A MODERATE DROUGHT BY
THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

ONLY WARNINGS ARE FOR THE MISS. RIVER BEING AT FLOOD STAGE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...PERSISTENCE RULES YET AGAIN THIS MORNING AS SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ERN GULF. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z U/A ANALYSIS SHOWS
RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE FROM THE NWRN GULF AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE CNTL CONUS. THE RESULT IS CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING GRIDS/FORECASTS THIS GO ROUND
AS THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...HOWEVER GOOD CAPPING INDUCED BY
THE RIDGE WILL DOOM ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.
WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS THE REMOVAL OF POPS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND AS ALL OF
THE LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE RIDGING HOLDING
STEADY.

&&

.MARINE...AS TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WE ARE SEEING SOME LATE NIGHT
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ON THE WRN WATERS...AND EXPECT THESE TO
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SRLY FLOW OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

SO WE ARE STUCK IN A RUT. TOMORROW WILL BE TWO WEEKS W/O RAIN!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
307 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...NO BIG CHANGES FROM BEFORE AS PERSISTENCE RULES. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ERN GULF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z U/A ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SRN PLAINS. THE RESULT
IS CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THIS MORNING.

MINOR TWEAKS AT BEST TO THE GOING GRIDS/FORECASTS THIS GO ROUND
AS THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...HOWEVER GOOD CAPPING INDUCED BY
THE RIDGE WILL DOOM ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.
WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE WARMER THAN NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WE ARE SEEING SOME LATE NIGHT
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ON THE WRN WATERS...AND EXPECT THESE TO
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SRLY FLOW OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

GOOD NEWS: THE GFS IS SHOWING SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING/WEAKENING STARTING IN ONE WEEK(WED).

NOW THE BAD NEWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
613 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

.AVIATION...
LOW LVL CLOUDS RACING NORTH THIS AM...AS HIGH PRES AT SFC AND
ALOFT WILL HOLD CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK. VFR WX WILL CONT
THRU THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING RIDGING WEST ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS TO LOW PRESSURE THROUGH WEST TEXAS. ORIENTATION OF
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE FIELDS MAINTAINING A CONTINUOUS MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE REGION. CONVERSELY ALOFT...EXPANDING LOW PRESSURE
IS ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROVIDING A STRONGLY
SUBSIDING AND DRY CONVECTIVE CAPPING AIRMASS OVERHEAD.

LITTLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING ZONES AND GRIDS WITH PERSISTENCE ONCE
AGAIN DOMINATING THIS FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE WELL
ON MAINTAINING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN A SIMILAR POSITION
INTO THE COMING NEW WEEK. THUS DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WILL SEE
HOT DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...RATHER WARM AT NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
FORTUNATELY DEWPOINTS REMAIN NO WORSE THAN MODERATE AS DIURNAL
MIXING HOLDS THIS FEATURE DOWN KEEPING HEAT INDEXES AT GENERALLY NO
MORE THAN 100 DESPITE THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RETROGRADING OF LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HIGH MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE NEW
WEEK AS A DEEPENING TROF DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
WESTWARD RETREATING HIGH AND TRAILING TROF MAY GIVE SOME HOPE FOR
RAINS LATER IN THE WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME TOO SOON TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF POPS.

TROPICS REMAIN QUIET.

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
INTO THE COMING WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN STREAMING OUT OF THE GULF THIS
MORNING MOVING NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FALL APART
AND LIFT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MAINTAINING A
MODERATELY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. ABOVE THIS...A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTING CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE OBS SHOWING SOME LIGHT
GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AT A FEW SITES.

EXTENDED DRY PERIOD TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE COMING WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER MISSISSIPPI HIGH
MEANDERING IN A SIMILAR POSITION. RAIN CHANCES THUS NIL...WITH HOT
DAYS AND WARM NIGHTS REMAINING THE RULE.

EXTENDED MODELS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A BREAKDOWN OF THIS
PATTERN MOVING INTO MIDWEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING
HIGH TO RETROGRADE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROF DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OFF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SPIKE OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMING
IN WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A BACK-DOOR TROF ROTATING ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE THUS GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED OUR FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN
THAT WE`VE SEEN IN SOME TIME...ALBEIT SMALL. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE
RETROGRADING OF RIDGE AND WESTERN MIGRATION OF TROF ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF WATERS.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHWEST GULF. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE COMING NEW
WEEK.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

PLEASE NOTE THAT I WILL NOT BE AVAILIABLE TO UPDATE THIS THREAD UNITL I RETURN FROM SUMMER VACATION ON JUNE 29TH.
THANK YOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.AVIATION...
CU THIS AM IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VFR WX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...TO LOW PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS.
A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW THUS BEING MAINTAINED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALOFT...500 MILLIBAR HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPANSIVE FEATURE RESPONSIBLE
FOR MAINTAINING OUR EXTENDED DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH ANY RAINS
WELL DISPLACED FROM THE FORECAST AREA AT THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. NO FOG DEVELOPMENT YET AND ANY THAT DOES OCCUR THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT AND VERY SHORT-LIVED.

FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND GRIDS. DRY WEATHER PATTERN
TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE COMING WEEK.
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MAINTAINING
AN EFFECTIVE CONVECTIVE CAP. HOT DAYS AND WARM NIGHTS AHEAD. WILL
MENTION AGAIN THAT DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING REASONABLY LOW THAT
EXCESSIVE HEAT INDEXES HAVE NOT COME INTO PLAY.

WILL KEEP OUR LOW END CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN THEIR TREND OF
RETROGRADING HIGH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY MID-WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING TROFS JUST OFF EACH COAST YIELDING A QUASI OMEGA TYPE
PATTERN. INITIAL BUT MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AS BACK-DOOR TYPE TROF MIGRATES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THIS MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MOST RESIDENTS WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME GOOD RAINS BUT
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE CHANCES ARE SLIM AND THUS CARRYING NO MORE
THAN MINIMAL POPS AS A GOOD SLUG OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION. SORRY. LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR HAS ENTIRE AREA
IN ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT STEP UP FROM THIS IS A MODERATE
DROUGHT.

TROPICS REMAIN QUIET.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHWEST GULF. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE COMING NEW
WEEK.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

VERY HOT W/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 70
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES
ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL BE BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES FOR
MANY LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. IN
ADDITION...A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTREME HEAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS WEST AND A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TRENDING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SE FLA COAST
IS RIDGING ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT SWRLY WINDS ACRS THE
AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES NOTED AGAIN THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A FEW SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POPPING UP OFF THE
SOUTH CNTRL LA COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME RESPITE FROM THE HEAT AND DRY
WEATHER IN THE COMING DAYS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE NWRLY FLOW IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK.

FOR TODAY...HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SOME ISOLATED AFTN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACRS EXTREME SRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AS AFTN TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 90S OR AROUND 100 OVER INLAND
AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING NEAR 70 DURING THE AFTN...DANGEROUS
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.

NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAILY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT-
ENDING RAINS ARE EXPECTED...THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BRING SOME
RELIEF FROM THE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA
AND THE LAKES AREA OF TX TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW TEMPS.

NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. CHANCES OF ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW AT
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE NWRN GULF WILL
NOT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED...SOME OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM COULD SURGE NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS AND STALL ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY VARY BETWEEN A WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT FLUCTUATES NEAR THE COAST.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

WAAHOO!!!!! 40%!!!!!!! WAAHOO!!!!!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOKING AT LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS HAS FLATTENED AND BECOME A LITTLE
MORE ELONGATED...AS NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES IMPINGING ON IT. THIS HAS ALLOWED A
FRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. LOCAL RADARS SHOW A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER ON THE 29/00Z KLCH SOUNDING OVER 2 INCHES.

RUA

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY
WITH PWAT REMAINING OVER 2 INCHES. NORTHERLY FLOW AT 70H AND 50H IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FRONTAL
TROUGH TO SLIDE SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...WOULD
EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST AND MOVE INLAND. THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD BE A FOCUS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 190 AND
I-10 CORRIDORS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO...WITH THE HIGH PWAT VALUES...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IF MERGERS BETWEEN SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TAKE PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED CONVECTION WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST ON
TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM
BOTH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE WILL OCCUR.

DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST NEAR THE COAST.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...70H HIGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST GULF. THIS WILL SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL IN TURN BRING
DECENT GULF MOISTURE AND ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO MAKE GOOD
PROGRESS INLAND. THEREFORE...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
ON THE FOURTH OF JULY FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RUA

&&

[ROLLTIDE]

WUUS54 KLCH 292219
SVRLCH
LAC001-045-053-055-099-101-113-292315-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0130.090629T2219Z-090629T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN IBERIA PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW IBERIA...JEANERETTE...AVERY
ISLAND...
LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SCOTT...LAFAYETTE...
WEST CENTRAL ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ST. MARTINVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARY PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RAYNE...MERMENTAU...CROWLEY...
EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JENNINGS...
NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ABBEVILLE...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 512 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR ST. MARTINVILLE...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. OTHER STORMS EXTEND FROM WEST OF JENNINGS AND
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH JEANERETTE.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
NEW IBERIA BY 535 PM CDT...
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF LYDIA BY 550 PM CDT...
JEANERETTE BY 610 PM CDT...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHARENTON AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BALDWIN BY
615 PM CDT...

THESE ARE A DANGEROUS STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[ROLLTIDE]

SkyWarn Training Schedule

by NWS Forecast Office

Slidell, Louisiana

Severe Weather/Storm Spotter - Training Sessions


Basic SkyWarn Training Session

Sky Warn training session at Baton Rouge listed below has been postponed until a later date this summer
Please check this web page late for updated times. Thank you.

When: 6:00PM - 8:00PM Tuesday - June 30, 2009
Where: Advanced Traffic Management - Emergency Operations Center
3773 Harding Ave Baton Rouge, LA 70087

Local Sponsor - Baton Rouge Mayor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management
Visit this web page for additional information on the course
or contact Wil White - 225-389-2100

NWS Contact - Frank Revitte, 985-649-0357 x 223.
Continue to check this page for upcoming sessions.

[Joe-Nathan]

YESTERDAY NEWS:
RECORD HIGH IN LAFAYETTE - 101
RAIN IN LAFAYETTE - .65in
RAIN AT THE HOUSE(ST. MARTINVILLE) - 1.75in

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH 30/14Z.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE...WILL
PLACE VICINITY SHOWERS AT SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 30/20Z. THE
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TO SAG INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN
DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

SEVERAL AREAS YESTERDAY SAW SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS MIX DOWN
WITH THE COLLAPSING STORMS YESTERDAY. DON`T BELIEVE WE WILL
SEE NEAR THE COVERAGE TODAY. ALSO...DRIER AIR WORKING IN ABOVE
THE SURFACE WILL ALSO HELP KEEP STORMS MORE TAME TODAY.

EXPECT A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. SEABREEZE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO KICK BACK
IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WARM MOIST GULF AIR WORKS IN FROM
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL BE ANCHORED OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE RECENT RAINS DIDN`T DO MUCH TO DENT THE DEFICIT
BALANCE AS THE AREA REMAINS 5 TO 11 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
YEAR. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JUNE TOMORROW WITH MOST
AREAS 3 TO 5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL OF THE MONTH. THIS CONTINUES TO COMPOUND
THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT PROBLEM.

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD TODAY. NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP SEAS
ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WASHES OUT WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
338 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. FOR TODAY...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE
SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UPPER PATTERN
BECOMING MORE BENIGN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. VERY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETREAT TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW MORE NIGHTTIME/MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND NEARSHORE WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[Joe-Nathan]

NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED TODAY - CURRENT RECORD IS 100!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
303 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA IS ALSO ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S... WHICH SHOULD LIFT EASTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND. IN
THE NEAR TERM...DRY BUT HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY TODAY
BUT HEAT INDICIES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW CRITERIA. GFS HINTS AT
SHEAR AXIS APPROACHING THE NW GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND. WITH
INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED WITH THIS FEATURE...WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. SHEAR AXIS WILL LIKELY BRING
INCREASE IN NIGHTIME AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
356 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
ACROSS INLAND AREAS TODAY. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICIES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
10.

[Joe-Nathan]

A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY, BUT CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY!!!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
613 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

...OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK TODAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH HEAT INDICES AVERAGING NEAR
105 DEGREES. PERSONS ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ARE ENCOURAGED
TO WEAR LIGHT COLORED AND LIGHT WEIGHT CLOTHES...DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS...AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS. THE YOUNG AND ELDERLY ARE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO INTENSE HEAT. ENSURE THAT OUTDOOR PETS
AND LIVESTOCK HAVE ACCESS TO SHADE AND PLENTY OF WATER.

DUE TO THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...OUTDOOR BURN BANS AND RESTRICTIONS
ON THE USE OF FIREWORKS ARE IN PLACE AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. PERSONS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK WITH THEIR LOCAL
OFFICIALS FOR THE SPECIFIC POLICIES IN THEIR JURISDICTION. THOSE
CHOOSING TO CELEBRATE INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH FIREWORKS WHERE PERMITTED
ARE ENCOURAGED TO DO SO WITH CAUTION.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
615 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

..HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NW GULF...WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A SHEAR AXIS. MEANWHILE...
AN UPPER TROF PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE TO THE WEST
ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC STREAMS INTO THE DESERT SW. AT THE
SFC...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD SAGGED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA
YESTERDAY EVENING...AND IS PRESUMABLY STILL IN THIS GENERAL
VICINITY THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN VIA SFC OBS. DATA
FROM POE 88D SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY HAVE SUNK EVEN FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BE ONE OF CONTINUING OPPRESSIVE HEAT AS CORE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD EAST TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA. HEAT INDICES WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN...WITH READINGS AREAWIDE AVERAGING OUT AT AROUND 105 DEGREES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE REMNANT BOUNDARY STILL IN THE
AREA...HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...THOUGH
WHAT REMAINS OF IT WILL BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT THAT
LITTLE IF ANYTHING WILL REMAIN OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...RAINFALL WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CERTAINLY NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SUNDAY BRINGS THE TRANSITION FROM THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY PATTERN
OF LATE TO A MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WHATS LEFT OF RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER BREAK DOWN...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO NORTH LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW...INTRODUCING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO THE TEXAS LAKES AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES GO UP FROM THIS POINT UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A DECENT MOISTURE POOL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING TO THE SOUTH. THEREAFTER...MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
NEITHER POINT TO A RETURN OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER.

THUS...AFTER THE RECENT EXTENDED PERIOD OF RECORD BUSTING HEAT...WE
STILL HAVE ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO GET THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS
HEADED OUR WAY ALONG WITH MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN WEAK TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

"This is the end, the end my friend, the end"

THE HEAT WAVE IS ENDING TONIGHT!!!! WAAHOO!!!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
407 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 105.

LATER TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED. SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...
WITH 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER ON TAP FOR TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXTEND
ABOVE 100...PERHAPS TO AROUND 105 THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE COMING IN...AS SOON AS TONIGHT. EXPECTING A
NOCTURNAL MCS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT NORTH OF OUR REGION...ALONG A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REACH E TX/CEN LA...POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH CLOSELY TO SEE IF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS
WEEK...GENERALLY THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS ACADIANA...AND A
LITTLE LOWER WEST OF THE SABINE RIVER. THIS IS ALL RELATED TO A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A STRENGTHENING
500 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS.

BESIDES AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE COMBINATION OF
A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR VICINITY AND THESE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES COULD PRODUCE NOCTURNAL MCS-TYPE EVENTS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
BUT AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND/OR
LOCATION OF THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WITH THE SEA BREEZE TODAY NEAR THE
COAST BUT SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM FOR ANY OF THE SITES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL LA TONIGHT. AEX WILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO CENTRAL
LA.

&&
GRIFFIN

[Joe-Nathan]

LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT WAVE HAS BEEN BROKEN. HIGHS THIS WEEK IN THE LOW 90s W/DECENT RAIN CHANCES EVERY DAY!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
506 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2009

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MAIN PROBLEM FOR AVIATION THIS GO ROUND APPEARS TO BE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CURRENTLY SHOW A LARGE SWATH
OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM SWRN MS ACROSS CNTL/NRN LA TO NERN TX. GFS HAD THIS
ACTIVITY PEGGED AND BRINGS IT SWD WITH THE FRONT OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY. BASICALLY CARRIED HIGHEST CERTAINTIES OF SHOWERS AT
KAEX WITH CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO ONGOING ACTIVITY. FOR NOW ELECTED
TO KEEP BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SRN TERMINALS AT PROB30 FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE PRECIP WORKS ITS WAY SLOWLY SWD...ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE BETTER REFINED WITH LATER TAF
ISSUANCES. ONCE WE GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE JUST HELD ONTO
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT...AGAIN LETTING LATER TAFS BETTER
REFINE THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2009/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
POPS. MCS WAS CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE THE
SURFACED WIND FIELD LOOKS JUMBLED WITH THIS SYSTEM`S PASSAGE...IT
APPEARS THAT FRONT IS STALLED OVER NE TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
NE TEXAS AND NW LOUISIANA AS WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPULSE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. ONCE THE AIRMASS RECOVERS AND UPPER IMPULSE
APPROACHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING FRONT
BECOMING DIFFUSE BY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE SE U.S. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL LEAD TO A TYPICAL DIURNAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
APPROACH OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COULD BRING
A RETURN TO HOT DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN
WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&