NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area

[Joe-Nathan]

MUGGY AT THE HOUSE = TEMP: 68F HUMD: 87% DEW: 67F



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
608 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE BULK OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ADVANCING
ACROSS THE AREA IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ITS WAKE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...IFR STRATUS AND/OR FOG
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA. AEX IS UNDER MVFR
CLOUDS...BUT A LOWERING INTO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...A VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
WILL BE CARRYING VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION IN A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ANTICIPATING A RETURN OF IFR OVERNIGHT AT ALL
SITES WITH BOTH FOG AND STRATUS.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. IN
AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO RAIN FOG HAS SETTLED IN. TEMPS HAVE
REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER 60S REPORTED. A SHORTWAVE
OVERNIGHT IS WHAT HAS BEEN THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND STORMS THIS
MORNING.

TODAY EXPECT TO SEE MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR MID 70S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS WILL DROP PRECIP CHCS ACROSS THE
REGION. BUT WITH THIS DROP...AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY
LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. FOG TO HOLD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. WE ARE FINALLY INTO A WET PERIOD THAT
WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  63  76  62  76 /  60  20  20  30  60
KBPT  77  64  76  62  76 /  60  20  20  30  60
KAEX  76  61  76  60  75 /  60  20  20  30  60
KLFT  75  61  76  62  74 /  60  20  20  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

@ the HOUSE: TEMP: 61F DEW: 61F HUMD: 98%


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CST THU FEB 2 2012

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WIDESPREAD
FOG/STRATUS OVERLAYS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR ONGOING AT
ALL TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THEN EXPECTING A GRADUAL LIFT TOWARD MID-MORNING YIELDING MVFR/LOW
END VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR RETURNING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST THU FEB 2 2012/

DISCUSSION...
A STALLED FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO THE BIG BEND
REGION OF WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAS FORMED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE VISIBILITY IS RANGING FROM ONE MILE DOWN TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET. THE FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AROUND THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WITH ALL THE FOG... TEMPS HAVE
HELD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY MOVING INTO
OKLAHOMA WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS
HAPPENS GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOG REDEVELOPS BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO A DEGREE
AS SHOWERS WILL WASHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DENSE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL BEGIN OUR TRANSITION BACK INTO MORE
SEASONAL WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. AREAS OF FOG REFORMING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LOWS BACK INTO THE 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONT TO INCREASE THRU SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION.

RAINS WILL CONT BEHIND THE FRONT... SO SUNDAY IS LOOKING COLD AND
WET... WELL AT LEAST THE SUPER BOWL WILL BE A GOOD EXCUSE TO STAY
INSIDE. WE LOOK TO REMAIN IN THIS WET PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  63  75  64  74 /  30  30  70  50  60
KBPT  76  63  74  64  74 /  30  30  70  50  60
KAEX  73  63  74  63  74 /  30  30  70  50  60
KLFT  76  63  75  62  75 /  20  30  70  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
611 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH FOG WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE DAY TODAY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE
OUTSIDE TO STORMS. IFR THRU MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING...
THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE COASTAL WATERS. STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE
NORTH WITH THIS OVERALL MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH AREA COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ONCE
AGAIN.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SPREADING INLAND OVER COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES. VISIBILITY
WILL VARY AT THIS TIME DUE TO RAINS WASHING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S...NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN THE
MID 40S.

A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL BEGIN MOVING
TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON LATE. WHAT THIS WILL
MEAN....MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP. TEMPS
WILL TO REMAIN WARM OVERNIGHT AND MOVE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S ON
SATURDAY.

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THIS WILL FINALLY
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO A MORE SEASONAL RANGE WITH LOWS
AROUND 50 SUNDAY MORNING AND IN THE MID 40S MONDAY MORNING. WE
HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 12 ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MORNING LOWS. THIS COMING WEEK
WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SEASONAL TEMPS. RAINS ENDING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  66  74  51  62 /  50  50  70  40  30
KBPT  75  66  73  51  61 /  50  50  70  40  30
KAEX  75  64  73  49  60 /  70  50  70  40  30
KLFT  75  65  75  54  64 /  50  30  60  40  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
521 AM CST MON FEB 6 2012

.AVIATION...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES WILL TO THE
SOUTH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
RIPPLES OF ENERGY SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER ALTOCU DECK DOWN TO VFR
STRATOCU DECK AROUND 5K FEET TONIGHT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST MON FEB 6 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH VERACRUZ MEXICO. THIS SHALLOW DOME WILL BE
ABSORBED BY A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY.

FURTHER UP...PACIFIC SHORTWAVES...RIDING ALONG A MONTERREY MEXICO-TO
-MOBILE TRACK...WILL TRANSPORT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GULF COAST STATES.

DISCUSSION...
TRAVELING PACIFIC SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND LIFT AT MID
LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING FROM THE
ALTO-CLOUDS WILL EVAPORATE UPON ENTERING THE INTERVENING DRY LAYER.

HOWEVER...PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL WEAKEN AS WELL. THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

FOR TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL. FOG
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN
HIGH....WILL TRAVEL SOUTHWARD...PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES BY LATE EVENING TUESDAY INTO EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MARINE...
ADVECTIVE COOLING CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MARINE LAYER UNSTABLE.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS MORNING...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

AN ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL BE
RUNNING FROM 3 TO 4 SECONDS.

OUTLOOK...
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKES REGION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE PINEY HILLS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  42  62  43  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  62  43  63  44  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  60  40  58  41  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  45  62  45  64 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
529 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2012

..AVIATION...VFR. VAD WIND PROFILES, SURFACE REPORTS AND FCST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTI LAYERED CLOUDS ABV 5K FEET. A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
AN INACTIVE CANADIAN FRONT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES THIS EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTED FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

FURTHER UP...A LOW INDEX WAVE PATTERN BEST DESCRIBES THE SHAPE OF
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...PACIFIC TROUGH TO GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO
NEW ENGLAND TROUGH.

THE PRIMARY PLAYER FOR THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES IS THE PACIFIC
TROUGH...WHICH WILL DEEPEN EQUATORWARD THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA...
BEFORE BEGINNING ITS EASTWARD DRIFT. THIS PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS (OR PACIFIC WAVETRAIN) ALONG A
GUADALAJARA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE TRACK THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING ANY
RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DISCUSSION...
ANTICYCLONIC WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A RELATIVELY UNFILTERED FEBRUARY SUN WILL RAPIDLY WARM THE GROUND...
BRINGING ABOUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL RETURN TONIGHT...WITH PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN FRONT. THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

MARINE...
THE ACTUAL TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 1/2 FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE TABLE
VALUES (THE LUNAR TIDES)...DESPITE THE NORTHERLY WINDS.

THE FULL SNOW MOON IS BRINGING ABOUT A 1/5 TO 2-FOOT TIDAL RANGE
(BETWEEN THE PRIMARY HIGH AND THE PRIMARY LOW TIDES).

AN ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD WILL BE
RUNNING FROM 3 TO 4 SECONDS.

OUTLOOK...
THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT BASIN RIDGE WILL BREAKDOWN ON SATURDAY...
ALLOWING A NORTHERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVES TO ESCAPE SOUTHEAST...TREKKING
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY...AND BRINGING ABOUT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  44  62  41  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  44  63  42  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  61  41  62  38  59 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  64  43  63  43  60 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
535 AM CST WED FEB 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 08/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A DECENT CIRRUS SHIELD OVER
HEAD. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS BUILDS DOWN. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ON THE RELATIVELY DRY SIDE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST WED FEB 8 2012/

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH MODERATE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. JET CIRRUS WILL FILTER THE SUN
TODAY.

SHORT TERM...WENT LOWER ON TEMPS THAN GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME TEMPS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO AMPLE
JET CIRRUS LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WENT A BIT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ON MIN TEMPS CONSIDERING
VERY DRY DEW POINTS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE EFFECTS OF
CIRRUS SHOULD BE LESS OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST ON A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY SO INCLUDED A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO AN ONGOING FAVORABLE JET. ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TAKES A SOUTHERN TRACK AND DRIVES A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.

MARINE...INCREASED COVERAGE ON CAUTION AREA AND EXTENDED THE
PERIOD INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST AS A GRADIENT SETS
UP WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  41  60  42  65 /   0   0  10  10  20
KBPT  65  42  60  41  65 /   0   0  10  20  20
KAEX  60  36  59  39  63 /   0   0  10  10  20
KLFT  65  39  59  40  64 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
532 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 09/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW
BRINGS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN THE LOW LAYERS. MEANWHILE...ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AFTER 10/06Z AND WILL MENTION VCSH FOR
KBPT/KLCH/KAEX DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
MAINLY LIGHT WITH CEILINGS REMAINING AT VFR LEVELS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PACKAGE
DURING FRIDAY WITH SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012/

SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE DAY OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT FROM LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND WESTERN CARRIBBEAN BEGINS TO RELAX AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE YUCATAN STRAIT WASHES OUT. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN EMERGES OUT OF THE WAVE TRAIN OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WHICH PUSHES A DIGGING LEAD WAVE OR UPPER TROF INTO TEXAS TONIGHT.
THIS SET UP WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR FRONTOGENISIS OFF THE TEXAS
COAST WHERE A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS. A FAVORABLE JET WILL
ACT ON INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE
THE NEW FRONTAL SURFACE RESULTING IN ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...A LACK OF CIRRUS TODAY WITH THE JET WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR HEATING OF THE DRY AIR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE DRY AIR FROM NEAR THE
SURFACE TO MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR VIRGA TONIGHT WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING ACTING ON THE LEADING SHOWERS TO LOWER TEMPS
BELOW GUIDANCE LEVELS. THICKNESS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE VALUES FOR
ANY KIND OF WINTRY MIX WORRIES...5480M ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS.

LONG TERM...GUIDANCE GOING TOO ROBUST ON POPS FOR
FRIDAY...CATEGORICAL CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH
THETA RIDGING AND MOISTURE ARE AMPLE...INSTABILITIES ARE MODEST
WITH A LACK OF LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF THE GULF OR ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE SO OPTED FOR LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
COVERING THE LAKES AREA OF SE TX INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. PRECIP SHOULD END WITH THE H5 TROF AXIS PASSING AROUND
SUNDOWN FRIDAY.

ANOTHER DOSE OF PRECIP ON MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WTIH ANOTHER
IN THE SERIES OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH ON THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
TIMING BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE EURO
SHOWING MORE ENERGY AND A COOLER SOLUTION. BLENDED IN THE EURO TEMPS.

MARINE...SCEC OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING UNTIL THE
GRADIENT RELAXES BY THE AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  42  63  47  64 /   0  30  30  10  10
KBPT  65  43  65  47  64 /   0  30  40  10  10
KAEX  61  38  61  43  58 /   0  20  50  10  10
KLFT  64  43  64  43  64 /   0  10  30  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
530 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 10/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PLAINS IS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES...AS UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS...ENDING UPGLIDE
MOISTURE. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE AT MVFR
LEVELS WITH THE SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS DRIER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012/

SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE IS BEING LIFTED AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS A
FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A CANADIAN COLD FRONT AND AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES THROUGH AROUND SUNDOWN. A SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL REINFORCE THIS COLD AIRMASS ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING ABOUT A HARD FREEZE FROM HIGHWAY 190 NORTHWARD
AND A LIGHT FREEZE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR SUNDAY
MORNING...SPELLING DOOM TO OUR EARLY INFESTATION OF MOSQUITOES.
THOSE WITH TENDER PLANTS THAT MAY HAVE GOTTEN AN EARLY START
RECENTLY WILL NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR FREEZING
CONDITIONS...NOT SEEN IN NEARLY A MONTH.

SHORT TERM...WENT HIGHER ON TEMPS TNITE DO MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER
FROM JET CIRRUS AFTER THE LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. THE
AREA SHOULD BE UNDER A RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET RIGHT ON INTO SATURDAY...WHERE I ALSO KEPT TEMPS
LOWER FOR THE VERY SAME REASON...ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION THE
ENTIRE DAY.

LONG TERM...STRONG RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS ON SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A QUICK RECOVERY ON TEMPERATURES...WENT HIGHER THAN BOTH
INHERITED AND GUIDANCE...THAT SAID TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.

AN ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN PATTERN OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
PRODUCE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH PACIFIC RAIN SYSTEMS ABOUT EVERY
THREE DAYS...MONDAY, THURSDAY, AND BEYOND.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE ISSUED
TO COVER THE THE SURGE OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
REMAINING ON THE STRONG SIDE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND CREATES A STRONG GRADIENT WITH THE DEPARTING
HIGH. LOW WATER CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED WITH THE NORTHERLY SURGE
ON SATURDAY. WATER LOOKS TO BE PILING UP WITH HIGHER TIDES ON
MONDAY FROM THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...TIDES ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE
PREDICTED ON MONDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  45  50  29  56 /  70  20   0   0  10
KBPT  61  46  52  31  56 /  70  10   0   0  10
KAEX  57  40  44  26  53 /  80  10   0   0  10
KLFT  56  46  47  29  55 /  80  20   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

COLD AT THE HOUSE BUT NO FROST THANKS TO NORTH WIND

LOW: 30F ICE IN DITCHES, PUDDLES AND PROTECTED CRAWFISH PONDS.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
528 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BKN HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...WITH MIDLVL CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVING IN LATE
THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE NELY WINDS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING MORE ELY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012/

DISCUSSION...
1039 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN KANSAS CONTINUES TO
RIDGE DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING A COLD AND DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...ACTIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT HAS BROUGHT EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP AIR TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE
TRIMMED BACK THE HARD FREEZE WARNING TO ONLY CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AS THEY WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH THE MID 20S
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO RISE AFTER SUNRISE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STILL QUITE CHILLY WITH FREEZING LINE AS FAR
SOUTH AS ORANGE...NORTH LAKE CHARLES (CHENAULT KCWF)...AND NEW
IBERIA. WITH WINDS RUNNING AROUND 10 MPH...WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S AREA WIDE.

WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HELPING TO FILTER FULL SUNSHINE...AND
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE REGION...WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY MODIFY LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING A MORE MOIST...MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER 1.25 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT.
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL FORM FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME
ISOLATED...MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE MODIFIED MARINE
LAYER EXPECTED IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING
OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. STILL...STRONG AND TURNING LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL CREATE VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES. THEREFORE...IF ANY
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP OR ANY OF THE SHOWERS CAN BECOME
ROOTED AT THE SURFACE...SOME STRONG WINDS OR EVEN ISOLATED
ROTATING CELLS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST...WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS
HELPING TO CREATE WATER PILING AND ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE
COAST...COULD POSE SOME WATER RISES IN THE LOWER
NECHES...CALCASIEU AND VERMILION BASINS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

MILD AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. AGAIN...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

RUA

MARINE...
MSAS ANALYSIS AND RIG/BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SHOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WANES AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY COME BACK AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
SURFACE WAVE MOVING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
WEST...WILL HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. TIDE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS TIDES AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE
PREDICTED LEVELS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PUSH ACTUAL
TIDE LEVEL TO NEAR 3 FEET MLLW AT SABINE PASS AND CALCASIEU PASS
DURING HIGH TIDE. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  49  39  61  54 /   0  10  60  60
KBPT  49  43  62  53 /   0  20  70  40
KAEX  48  34  56  49 /   0  10  60  60
KLFT  50  36  62  56 /   0  10  50  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR AVOYELLES-
     EVANGELINE-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24 

[Joe-Nathan]

SLEET????

LOW: 38 TEMP: 43 HUM: 53% DEW: 28


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN...OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH SLEET...CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT
CONTRIBUTED THE INITIAL LIFT IS EXITING TO THE EAST...WHILE A MORE
POTENT UPSTREAM TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
MOISTEN...CIGS WILL LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR THIS MORNING AT KBPT-
KLCH...AND BY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
CONCURRENT WITH THESE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES AS THE UPPER TROF DRAWS CLOSER AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDOW OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES RANGES FROM LATE MORNING
TO MID EVENING EAST TEXAS...AND FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. EXPECT CIGS TO FURTHER LOWER
INTO IFR AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO BECOME A PROBLEM ONCE THE
RAIN CEASES AS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN AMID
DECREASING WINDS AND DRYING MID/UPPER LEVELS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
A WK VORT PASSING ALOFT HAS BROUGHT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...MIXED WITH
OCCASIONAL SLEET EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE TEMPERATURES RANGING
FM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WET BULBING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO
COOL THE LOWER LVLS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME SMALL ICE
PELLETS TO FALL TO THE SFC. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE REGION...BRINGING ELY WINDS ACRS THE AREA. THE
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

DISCUSSION...
RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND
TO TAKE PLACE. FOR TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AS A SHTWV TROF OVER THE SRN/CNTL PLAINS TRAVELS EAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT
EXPECTED...AND WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL FORM FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY WITH A SLT CHC OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED HOWEVER...THUS THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS
TIME. BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED ROTATING CELLS AS 0-1 KM HELICITIES OF 200-400 M2/S2
ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LVL SHEAR AND 40-50 KT LLJ WILL BE IN
PLACE.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORKWEEK...WITH
HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AFTN...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIMIT AFTN HEATING.

A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN IN PLACE ALOFT AND THE
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS RATHER QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH DRIER AIR
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABV
NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S CNLT LA TO UPPER 50S
ACRS LOWER SE TX.

WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...THE BREAK BETWEEN RAIN
EVENTS WILL BE SHORT WITH THE NEXT FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FM W TO E THURSDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHTWV TROF WILL MOVE INTO S TX FRIDAY NT/EARLY
SAT...WITH EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

24

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD
OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDS
20-25 KT ACRS THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN
ITS WAKE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME TUESDAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  53  71  56  73 /  90  60  10  10  50
KBPT  60  52  72  58  73 /  90  50  10  20  50
KAEX  54  47  64  50  73 /  90  70  10  10  60
KLFT  59  56  73  55  75 /  70  90  10  10  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

RAIN: 0.49" TEMP: 54F HUM: 95%

NO FOG AT THE HOUSE DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
512 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FM SE LA SW TOWARD THE SRN TIP OF
TX. GENERALLY LT W TO NW WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF STRATUS ACRS MUCH
OF LA AND SE TX. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DENSE FOG BEING SEEN AT THE
CURRENT TIME DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
SLOT OF CLEARING OVER SE TX HAS ALLOWED KBPT TO LOWER TO LESS THAN
ONE MILE BASED ON RECENT OBS. FURTHER WEST...AROUND HOUSTON AND
COLLEGE STATION...WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...DENSE FOG HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT. IN ADDITION...DURING
THE EVENING...A FEW SITES ACRS SW LA LOWERED TO 1/4 TO 1/2 SM WHEN
SKIES CLEARED BRIEFLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...WILL LET CURRENT ADVISORY
RIDE AS OCCASIONAL HOLES IN THE OVC HAVE ALLOWED VISBYS TO FALL
RATHER QUICKLY AT A FEW SITES. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPIDLY
CHANGING VISBYS OVER SHORT DISTANCES...FEEL CONTINUATION OF THE
ADVISORY IS WARRANTED. REDUCED DENSE FOG WORDING FROM AREAL TO
JUST PATCHY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...AS ONE SHTWV TROF EXITS EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ZONAL FLOW WILL RESUME ALOFT WITH ATTENTION ON THE NEXT
IN THE SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS...CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE
SW CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TODAY. SELY
SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTN...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
RETURN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE ALLOWING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER TX TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF AND SFC FRONT MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW LVL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK BY SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN
A SLT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS. DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW
ROTATING STORMS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
IN ADDITION...PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES
OVER THE AREA...ADDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
MIX.

DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER PATTERN...THE UPPER
TROF WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST...TAKING THE SFC FRONT EAST OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY IN ITS WAKE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF NRN MEXICO INTO SRN TX. THIS SYSTEM WILL
INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. EXTENDED MODELS SHOW THIS LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN
GULF AND TREKKING NE SATURDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE
TRACK. AT THIS TIME...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH ADJUSTMENTS EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS AS
THE MODEL DETAILS BECOME MORE REFINED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE AND GENERALLY VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BECOME ONSHORE BY THIS EVENING AND STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH ACTIVITY
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  68  56  72  58 /  10  10  70  50
KBPT  69  58  74  56 /  10  20  70  40
KAEX  65  51  73  55 /  10  10  90  60
KLFT  71  56  73  62 /  10  10  90  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-
     AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EAST CAMERON-EVANGELINE-
     IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-
     ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON-WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HARDIN-
     JEFFERSON-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN
     JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-TYLER.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
538 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED FLAT
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH A MEAN TROF STRETCHING
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO JUST WEST OF THE BAJA. UPPER LEVEL
JET WAS NOTED FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ARCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE
CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROF WAS NOTED MOVING EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS
TWD THE TX PANHANDLE.

AT THE SFC...LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER WESTERN
KS...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE THROUGH OK AND INTO WEST
CENTRAL MS.

VERY ACTIVE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO CONTEND WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...GENERALLY SURROUNDING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROF.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE LIFTING E/NE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS...30-40KT AT H85...WILL TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE 65-70F RANGE NWD INTO THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FCST TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.7
INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

THESE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR...SUPPORTING A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...WITH LARGE HAIL
ALSO POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITING...THUS SPC HAS AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REGIONAL RADARS ALREADY INDICATING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EAST TEXAS HEADING TOWARD
LATE MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY. ZONE OF GREATEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY
FALL WITHIN A SWATH FROM EAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH
ACTIVITY PICKING UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTPUT FROM HIRES WINDOWS AND EXPERIMENTAL HREF INDICATE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4 INCHES...POSSIBLE FOR EVENT TOTALS.
THESE MODELS HAVE DEMONSTRATED SOME SKILL IN PICKING UP ON HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS. STILL...WITH 6-HR FFG AVERAGING NEAR 4 INCHES...DO
NOT BELIEVE A WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA REGION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS FRONTAL PROGRESS SLOWS AND
EVENTUALLY HALTS.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE GULF
WATERS ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF...CURRENTLY OVER
THE PAC NW...APPROACHES. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...DRAWING GULF MOISTURE ATOP THE
SHALLOW AND WEAK POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. THIS LIFT WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...THEN TRACKS EAST OVER
THE GULF WATERS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO...AND FOR
THIS FORECAST HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...WHICH WAS
ALSO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND SOME COOLER/DRIER AIR FINALLY INTRUDES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO...PERMITTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS A WARM FRONT
ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE WESTERN TIP
OF FRONT...THEN TRAVEL EASTWARD...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  62  74  51 /  70  70  10  20
KBPT  73  60  74  52 /  70  50  10  20
KAEX  74  59  72  45 /  90  90  10  10
KLFT  76  64  75  52 /  50  90  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

13 

[Joe-Nathan]

RAIN: 0.24" TEMP:61F NORTH WIND IS BLOWING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
542 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A
RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH A MEAN TROF AXIS OVER THE
WRN CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE JET STREAM ARCED FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE MID ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROF...AN UPPER LOW WAS NOTED OVER SRN CA...WITH AN APPARENT LEAD
IMPULSE BEGINNING TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE BAJA.

AT THE SFC...CDFNT WAS ANALYZED NEAR A LINE FROM MIDWAY BETWEEN
NATCHEZ AND MCCOMB MS...EXTENDING SW TO NEAR PECAN ISLAND AND ON
OUT INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.

WHILE WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA HAS ENSUED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL TROF...THE REAL DRY AIR REMAINS BOTTLED UP WELL TO THE
WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHAT THE COOLING HAS
ALLOWED IS FOR THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE TO REACH
SATURATION...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION ACROSS
EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS.
EXPANDED THE EARLIER ISSUED MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
THE 20-60NM ZONES WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY...WITH OFFSHORE
OBSERVATIONS NOW INDICATING FOG IN THESE ZONES AS WELL. IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL AREAL EXPANSIONS AND/OR EXTENSIONS
IN TIME WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE...AS BOTH
PROBABILISTIC AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE THE SEA FOG MAY
EXPAND FARTHER EAST AND LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INLAND FOG
MAY ALSO EXPAND EASTWARD BEYOND THE CURRENT ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD
ERODE BY MID MORNING.

CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLUGGISHLY TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY PRIMARILY
OVER THE GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. ENJOY THE BREAK IN THE RAIN...BECAUSE MORE IS
ON THE WAY.

THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT PERIODS WHEN I BELIEVE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
THE HIGHEST...AND THE FIRST OF THESE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE LEAD IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT ACROSS
THE REGION...TUGGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD AND
INDUCING DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS INITIAL BURST OF RAINFALL
SHOULD EASE FIR DAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DISTURBANCE
PULLS AWAY...THOUGH HEALTHY CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AS LIFT WILL PERSIST.

THE SECOND...AND MORE POTENT...PERIOD OF ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP
AND EJECTS OUT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY...AND THE ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE
POOL...ARE PROGGED TO SURGE NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO 40-50KT AT H85. THIS MOISTURE
INFLUX...COUPLED WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM
ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY. MEAN AREAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
THE ECMWF AND GFS...ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
THIS MORNING...AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. SHOULD THIS...OR A MORE INLAND SCENARIO
MATERIALIZE...THEN THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE. AS
IT STANDS NOW...SPC HAS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN A SLIGHT RISK
ON THE LATEST DAY 3 OUTLOOK.

RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. HOW LONG THIS DRY SPELL LASTS REMAINS TO BE SEEN...THOUGH
GLOBAL MODELS POINT TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

13

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG WILL AFFECT THE GULF WATERS WEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY ALONG WITH SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES. A WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF LATE FRIDAY...AND
TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.


13

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MID
MORNING, HOWEVER THE FOG WILL MIX OUT DURING THE MORNING AND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY VFR EVERYWHERE BEFORE
NOON. THIS EVENING...SHOWERS CREATING LOWER VIS MAY DEVELOP AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH LOWER CEILINGS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE N TO NW THIS MORNING AND BECOME AND REMAIN NE DURING THE
MORNING.

TINGLER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  55  65  56 /  10  40  60  80
KBPT  73  55  65  56 /  10  50  60  80
KAEX  71  50  64  53 /  10  20  50  70
KLFT  74  56  65  57 /  10  30  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALLEN-
     BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EAST CAMERON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-VERNON-
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HARDIN-
     JEFFERSON-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN
     JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-TYLER.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CALCASIEU
     LAKE-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM-SABINE LAKE-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
609 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A
RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE JET STREAM ARCED FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO TO THE MID ATLANTIC. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A LEAD
IMPULSE WAS NOTED LIFTING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS.

AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT WAS NOTED OVER THE GULF WATERS EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST FROM NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TO ABOUT 20 NM SOUTH OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER CONVECTION...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. LIGHT RETURNS ARE JUST STARTING TO SHOW UP
OVER THE EAST TEXAS LAKES REGION...BUT WITH CIGS IN THIS REGION
STILL AROUND 10K FT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY PRECIP IS REACHING
THE GROUND JUST YET. THIS INITIAL ROUND OF RAINFALL HAS
MATERIALIZED MUCH LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND IS
DISPLACED NORTH OF MOST MODEL QPF FORECASTS. THIS RAISES THE
QUESTION OF EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO SEE
TODAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE DRY WEDGE
EVIDENT ON THE KLCH 00Z RAOB WILL EVENTUALLY MOISTEN.../A QUICK
PEEK AT THE INCOMING 12Z RAOB BEARS THIS OUT/...AND WITH PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADDITION TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE...THINK IT
PRUDENT TO LEAVE THE INHERITED LIKELY POPS AS IS. MEAN AREAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH THE ONE HALF INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS RANGE WITH THIS INITIAL RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH TO
PROMPT FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY...BUT ENOUGH TO FURTHER SET THE
STAGE FOR PROBLEMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

AFTER THIS INITIAL ROUND...A SECOND AND MORE POTENT PERIOD OF
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
LINGER INTO SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND EJECTS
OUT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY...AND THE ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE
POOL...ARE PROGGED TO SURGE NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO 40-50KT AT H85. THIS MOISTURE
INFLUX...COUPLED WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM
ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY. MEAN AREAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS
HAVE ALREADY SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED SOILS IN MANY
LOCATIONS. COUPLED WITH ANY ANTECEDENT RAINFALL THAT OCCURS
TODAY...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR RAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY TO RESULT IN FLOODING. THUS...WITH A WATCH ALREADY IN
PLACE TO THE WEST OF ME AND AFTER COORD WITH LIX...WILL GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
COME TO AN END SOONER THAN THIS OVER EAST TEXAS...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND TYPE PRECIPITATION PENDING THE
EVENTUAL SYSTEM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO HAVE INCREASED A BIT AS MODELS HAVE
SETTLED ON A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD LOW PRESSURE TRACK...WHICH
PLACES THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SILSBEE TEXAS TO
MARKSVILLE LOUISIANA LINE IN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE PROGGED
STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
TORNADOES WOULD BE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISKS.

RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AMID SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW
SETS UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THIS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BRINGING HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ALONG
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL END LATE
SATURDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HRS
AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME NUMEROUS BY MID DAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH NOON. BY LATER AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT, IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS RAIN AND STORMS
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE NE TO E AND AT NEAR 10KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  54  68  44 /  60  90  90  10
KBPT  64  55  67  44 /  60  90  90  10
KAEX  64  52  62  41 /  60  90  90  20
KLFT  65  55  68  44 /  60  90  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EAST CAMERON-
     EVANGELINE-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST.
     MARTIN-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
     VERMILION-VERNON-WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     HARDIN-JEFFERSON-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-ORANGE-
     SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-TYLER.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
549 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

.AVIATION...RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
VIS IN RAIN. WINDS MAY BE ERRATIC NEAR STORMS, HOWEVER OVERALL WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SLOWLY CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012/

..FLOODING RAINS AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE TODAY...

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND IS NEARING THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER
SOUTH TX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NE TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVEL FROM AROUND THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON AREA ROUGHLY ACROSS LCH,
AND THEN TOWARD OPELOUSAS AND MARKSVILLE. THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO
LIFT NORTH ROUGHLY TO ALONG THAT LINE WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS
NORTH AND THE WARMER AND HIGHER TD AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. ALSO
THROUGH TODAY, THE SHORT WAVE IN W TX, NM, AND N MEXICO WILL MOVE
NE WHILE SLOWLY FLATTENING. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND SURFACE LIFT WILL PROVIDE AMPLE RAINFALL TO THE REGION TODAY
AND A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM. DUE TO COOLER AIR MASS
TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, HOWEVER IN THE WARM
SECTOR, ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE
STORM WITH HIGH WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. CAPE IS EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY LOW, HOWEVER SHEAR WILL BE VERY GOOD, AND WITH THE LARGER
HODOGRAPH COMES THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL.

THIS EVENING THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. MONDAY THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST STARTING THE RETURN FLOW LOCALLY.
A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA TUE WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT INC IN POPS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INC A BIT MORE ON WED AS A
SHORT WAVE PASS THE REGION ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT.

MARINE...WINDS AND WAVES WILL INC TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR SE TX AND S LA. AS THE LOW MOVES
E TO NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL CAUSE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DECREASING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  46  63  42  65 / 100  40  10  10  10
KBPT  68  45  62  45  65 / 100  30  10  10  10
KAEX  57  43  61  39  65 / 100  60  10  10  10
KLFT  71  48  62  42  66 / 100  50  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST.
     MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...
     ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$


TINGLER 

[Joe-Nathan]

RAIN: 3.27" (had rates as high as +15"/hr during height of storm.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
542 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

AVIATION  
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING TAFS WITH MVFR AND GUSTY  
WINDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE THIS  
MORNING OR INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY OCCUR LATER THAN WHAT IS  
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 18Z - 20Z. ONCE CIGS DO CLEAR  
VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  
  
  
   
PREV DISCUSSION  
 /ISSUED 459 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012/   
  
DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE  
EASTERN SECTIONS BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY TODAY AS  
NORTH WINDS USHER IN A COOL AND STABLE PACIFIC AIR MASS. AS THE  
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH MONDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG  
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN  
THE RETURN FLOW LOCALLY THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPS GOING BACK ABOVE  
NORMAL BY TUESDAY. THE WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL  
DROP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY, BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER LVL SUPPORT  
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW TO NIL AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES.  
HOWEVER, A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT AND  
WED WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR OR ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY  
THAT WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND  
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION THU OR FRI WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND  
A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.  
  
MARINE...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
COASTAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS AND SEAS IN THE GULF  
COASTAL ZONES IN SCA CRITERIA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD  
INTO THE REGION WITH WINDS DECREASING LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA  
CRITERIA THROUGH MID WEEK.  
  
DUE TO THE STRONG NW WINDS THIS MORNING TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO  
RUN BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET BELOW 0 ALONG THE COAST OF CAMERON PARISH  
AND JEFFERSON COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER INFLOW TO THE NORTH  
OF SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES MAY KEEP THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF  
THE LAKES FROM FALLING TOO FAR BELOW 0 IF AT ALL, HOWEVER THE  
PASSES WILL FALL WITH THE TIDE.  
  
  
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
  
KLCH  63  43  66  54  73 /  10   0  10  10  10   
KBPT  63  46  66  54  74 /  10   0  10  10  10   
KAEX  61  39  65  50  73 /  10   0  10  10  10   
KLFT  62  43  67  55  75 /  10   0  10  10  10   
  
  
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE   
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON   
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER   
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.   
  
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING   
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT   
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA   
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO   
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO   
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.  
  
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE   
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.  
  
     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE   
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION   
     BAY. 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
531 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012

DISCUSSION  
  
FOR THE 20/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
  
  
   
AVIATION  
  
STARTING OFF WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL  
HELP BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH  
LOW CLOUDS OBSERVED OVER THE GULF MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO  
THE FORECAST AREA DURING TONIGHT...WITH BOUNDARY LIKELY BECOMING  
STATIONARY AND WASHING OUT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF  
THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT WINDS AND FRONTAL INVERSION WILL HELP TRAP THE  
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG DEVELOPING  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. KBPT/KLCH LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF  
IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.  
  
RUA   
  
  
   
PREV DISCUSSION  
 /ISSUED 340 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012/   
  
SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS CRESTED OVER THE  
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH RETURN FLOW ALREADY STARTING OVER  
THE COASTAL WATERS AND EAST TEXAS. SUB-TROPICAL JET SHOWING UP  
NICELY WITH STREAM OF CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. AREA RADARS  
CONTINUE TO BE PPINE.   
  
DISCUSSION...RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE  
REGION TODAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED OVER THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS  
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WHILE OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE  
LITTLE TIME TO RECOVER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CAN NOT RULE  
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE  
FRONT.   
  
THE MOST DIFFICULT PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS IN THE WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY TIME FRAME...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROF OR CLOSED LOW  
THAT IS PROGGED INTO THE AREA AROUND THAT TIME. THE ECMWF HAS  
SPEED UP THIS SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN THUS  
BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND THE CMC  
CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER AND THUS THE MAIN EVENT IS MORE ON THURSDAY.  
THE CURRENT PLAN IS TO CARRY CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS...BUT EXPECT  
THAT EVENTUALLY THIS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO PERIODS  
WITH POPS INCREASING FOR WHATEVER PERIODS THAT MAY BE.  
  
OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.  
  
MARINE...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST  
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. A FRONTAL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE  
COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE  
INITIATED ALONG THIS TROF AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA.   
  
  
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
  
KLCH  65  55  73  56  74 /  10  10  10  10  40   
KBPT  65  54  73  57  74 /  10  10  10  10  40   
KAEX  63  50  70  48  72 /  10  10  10  10  10   
KLFT  64  54  72  56  72 /  10  10  10  10  40   
  
  
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE. 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. ALL SITES CURRENTLY
WITHIN IFR FROM LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY
MID-MORNING WITH FOG DISSIPATING AND STRATUS TRANSITIONING INTO A
MVFR STRATOCU AND HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. REPEAT PERFORMANCE
TONIGHT WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN IFR.


&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MOST DENSE AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. A MARINE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE EVENING SHIFT BUT
FOG HAS LARGELY SHIFTED OVER LAND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS BUT MAY NEED TO DROP ADVISORY
IF VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 9 AM THIS MORNING AND WILL GIVE
WAY TO A WARM DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST TODAY BUT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOMEWHAT TODAY AND SHOULD REMAIN A
BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO LESSEN THE FOG
THREAT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

THE BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...LOCATION OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS NOW SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE BIGGEST
OUTLIER IS THE GFS WHICH DOESN`T INITIALIZE ACTIVITY UNTIL THE
FRONT IS LARGELY EAST OF OUR AREA. CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
REMAINING GUIDANCE BUT CHOSE TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY AS ALL
GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING LESS PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF SPEED SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLINE THE AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE OVER CENTRAL LA WHERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS LIKELY TO BE GREATER. ATTM THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING REGIONS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOS
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THE
COVERAGE...WILL NOT INSERT SEVERE WORDING YET.

BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE LAYING DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE SPEED OF THE
EASTERLY DEPARTING HIGH AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE FASTER
GFS PUSHES MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA A MERE 24 HOURS AFTER
FROPA...THE CANADIAN IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHILE
THE ECMWF IS EVEN SLOWER. FOR NOW I WAS CONTENT TO CONTINUE LOW
END POPS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SPECIFICS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES.

MARINE...
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TODAY AS A WEAK LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US TIGHTENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER OFFSHORE WATERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS
WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH FRIDAY EVENING BUT WILL
LAY DOWN BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  60  77  56  65 /  10  10  20  30  40
KBPT  77  61  79  57  66 /  10  10  20  30  40
KAEX  74  55  79  52  63 /  10  10  20  30  40
KLFT  77  61  79  57  66 /  20  10  20  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
552 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED A BIT THIS AM ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN IS FALLING AND
FOG IS BEING HELD IN CHECK BY WINDS. LIFR TO MVFR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012/

UPDATE...
AFTER OBSERVING PERSISTENT MARINE PLATFORMS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
WELL ABOVE DENSE FOG CRITERIA...DECIDED TO CANCEL DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MARINE WATERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES THIS MORNING INDICATED AROUND LAKE
CHARLES. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT FOG PRETTY MUCH CONFINED
TO I-10 SOUTHWARD. WINDS STAYED UP OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR
VISIBILITIES TO STAY IN THE 1-5 MILE RANGE. DENSE SEA FOG WAS
STILL A PROBLEM ALONG THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS, LAKES AND
BAYS. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY IMPROVE OVER LAKES AND BAYS BY 9 AM
AND ELSEWHERE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY NOON.

DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH MAKING FOR
A WARM NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON OUGHT TO GET OFF TO A FAST START
AND WILL LIKELY SEE A WARM AFTERNOON AT ALL LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MAKING IT
FEEL MORE LIKE SPRINGTIME WEATHER.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE WELL MIXED IN THE VERTICAL
FOR THIS COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HEAVY RAIN ALSO APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A PROBLEM WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS THE SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST. GENERALLY
TAPERED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE AND AVAILABLE ENERGY. EXPECT FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH ALL
AREAS INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS BY NOONTIME FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED PRETTY
MUCH THROUGH SUNDAY. COULD SEE RETURN FLOW SETUP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES.
LIKELY WILL SEE THAT FRONT ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEKS COOL FRONT WILL PRETTY
MUCH MIMICK THE CURRENT EXPECT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A REPRIEVE FROM THE BIG RAINS
OF THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG WILL LIFT BY NOON...OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO MOVE THE MOISTURE OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHERLY FRIDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY
IF CURRENT WIND TRENDS CONTINUE. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT AFTER LOOKING AT THE NEXT MODEL RUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  53  65  39  58 /  20  30  30  10  10
KBPT  82  50  64  40  58 /  20  30  30  10  10
KAEX  81  49  62  36  57 /  20  30  20  10  10
KLFT  80  55  63  40  57 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$ 

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
642 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE START TIME OF THE WIND
ADVISORY TO THE CURRENT TIME. WINDS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING WITH
THE FRONTAL WINDSHIFT...WITH SEVERAL SITES ALREADY EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH. HELD OFF ON EXTENDING THE
ADVISORY INLAND AS 20+ MPH WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...TAPERING SLIGHTLY TO 10-20 MPH WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT IS NOW EAST OF LAKE CHARLES WITH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 17G25KTS
THIS AM. CLOUDS ARE LIFTING TO MVFR. AHEAD OF THE FRONTS LOW
CEILINGS ARE THE RULE WITH LIFR HOLDING ALTHOUGH VSBY IS RUNNING
AROUND 5 MILES. THIS LATEST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THRU ALL TAF
SITES BY 15Z.

KK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED NEARLY HALFWAY ACRS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING FM NR MARKSVILLE TO BEAUMONT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS
BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AS EVIDENCED BY THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
ACRS THE AREA...70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO LOW 40S BEHIND THE
FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO NOTED...WITH TEMPERATURES AS
OF 4 AM IN THE MIDDLE 60S OVER THE NRN ZONES TO LOWER 70S OVER THE
SRN ZONES.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW LARGE CUTOFF LOW
SPINNING OVER NW MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM...A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WAS STREAMING OVER THE REGION ON SWLY FLOW.

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR INLAND AREAS BY MID-MORNING...FINALLY
EXITING THE SERN COASTAL ZONES BY NOON. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING MAINLY SOUTH OF A BEAUMONT TO OPELOUSAS LINE
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO TX WILL RESULT
IN STRONG GUSTY NLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF INTERIOR SE TX
AND CNTL LA...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30-35 MPH.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SRN ZONES. THE NLY WINDS
WILL ALSO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY
AFTN...WITH BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. AFTN TEMPS
WILL RUN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE BY SATURDAY AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A
BRIEF REPRIEVE FM THE CLOUDS AND RAIN LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. DESPITE THE LIGHTER WINDS...SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS COULD LINGER AS PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION...POTENTIALLY OFFSETTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND NR 40 SOUTH...WHICH IS BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION...LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE SHTWV...AND INCLUDED A SLT CHC ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT EAST BY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REDEVELOPING. ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE COASTAL ZONES SUNDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY.

BY MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST...BRINGING A RETURN
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE WRN CONUS...TRAVELING EAST TO THE HIGH PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLT TO LOW END
CHC FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

MARINE...
A CANADIAN FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING FRONT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE TODAY. SEAS
WILL BECOME VERY ROUGH AND VERY STEEP. IN ADDITION...STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BLOWING LENGTHWISE ACROSS AREA LAKES AND BAYS WILL
SHOVE WATER OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ACTUAL WATER LEVELS
WILL BE RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET BELOW MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT
THE TIME OF THE LOW TIDE NEAR NOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  40  62  43 /  20  10  20  10
KBPT  66  41  61  43 /  20  10  10  10
KAEX  64  36  61  39 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  65  41  63  44 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ACADIA-CALCASIEU-
     EAST CAMERON-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST.
     MARTIN-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CALCASIEU
     LAKE-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24