NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area

[Joe-Nathan]

VERY BUSY THIS MORNING. EVENT TOTAL (6:30PM-6:30AM) AT THE HOUSE - 3.75 INCHES AND STILL RAINING...

SOME PARTS OF SW LA HAVE GOTTEN 4-6 INCHS OF RAIN SINCE MID NIGHT.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
449 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT

* AT 444 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN LAKE
CHARLES ESTIMATED THAT AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN OVER
PORTIONS OF ACADIA PARISH SINCE 2 AM. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT ALTHOUGH FLOODING WAS NOT OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME IN THE WARNED AREA...WATER HAS BEEN QUICKLY PONDING ON
ROADWAYS WHILE ALSO FILLING DITCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE WILL ONLY FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION AND
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN ACADIA PARISH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RICHARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
633 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FIELDS...
NORTH CENTRAL CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DE QUINCY...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT

* AT 631 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES
THAT UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 4 AM. AS HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE AREA...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. THE BEAUREGARD PARISH SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS
THAT SOME MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE FIELDS COMMUNITY ALONG
HIGHWAY 109.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
548 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SCOTT...LAFAYETTE...
CENTRAL ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RAYNE...CROWLEY...

* UNTIL 845 AM CDT

* AT 547 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES
THAT UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 3 AM. AS HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE AREA...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
642 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MAIN PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ONGOING
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY THE ACADIANA REGION. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROF LYING FROM LOWER ACADIANA TO THE LAKES
REGION. INTERACTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT
IS SPARKING THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SEEN ON REGIONAL
88DS UPSTREAM. LOCAL 88DS HAVE BEEN PAINTING A SLIGHT WEAKENING
TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...THEREFORE AHVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE
POPS IN THIS TAF PACKAGE AT KLFT/KARA/KLCH AS IF ACTIVITY WILL BE
ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE UPSTREAM CONVECTION SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND AM CARRYING TEMPO THUNDER
ALL SITES ACCORDINGLY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS WELL ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS
ALONG THE I10 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG THIS AXIS. WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ACADIANA REGION WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE BETTER ENHANCED. MODELS ARE HINTING AT CONVECTION TONIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PARISHES SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THERE. WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN LOWERING POPS AS CORE OF
UPPER ANTICYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS SEEM
REASONABLE BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND NEARSHORE WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
355 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...MUCH QUIETER MORNING THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. REGIONAL
88DS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...PARTICULARLY EAST OF WHITE LAKE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
AREA ATTM. THE SHORTWAVE IS ALSO HELPING PRODUCE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
OVER THE NERN ZONES ATTM. OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ONGOING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TAILORED POPS FOR TODAY WITH LOWEST POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) ACROSS
THE NWRN ZONES WHERE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TO HIGHEST CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES/ERN COASTAL WATERS WHERE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE HELPS DIMINISH ACTIVITY. MODELS INDICATE A PAIR OF WEAKER
VORTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH CURRENTLY PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE
HAVE RETAINED SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CURRENTLY SHOW THE MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
STAYING TO OUR N/NW AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS SHOWING IT CLOSER
TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND SEA BREEZE/
RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRIMARY EXCEPTION AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE
THE NOCTURNAL JETTING OVER THE WRN WATERS...LEADING TO TEMPORARILY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

LOCAL GROUND FOG IN THE OUT LAYING AREAS AROUND LAFAYETTE.
20% CHANCE OF RAIN W/ HIGHS AROUND 94.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
357 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NRN MS/SRN AR/RED RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE FROM WRN TX UP THE PLAINS STATES TO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. ONE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING THE SERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH REGIONAL 88DS SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER WEAKER VORT FIRING
CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DECAYING CIRRUS
FROM YESTERDAY`S CONVECTION STREAMING SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES UPSTREAM.

STILL LOOKING AT SMALL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING DESPITE MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING NEARBY. FOR TODAY
WE SHOULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED OR SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE VORT INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SLINK SWD BACK TOWARD THE REGION. CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO
EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. BY FRIDAY
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A LITTLE MORE EWD TOWARD THE AREA
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE CAPPING. WITH THE RIDGE
NOT BEING OVERHEAD LIKE LAST WEEK AND THUS THE CAPPING NOT BEING
SIGNIFICANT HAVE HELD ONTO AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM MENTION IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES.

BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE EAST/WEST
ORIENTED TO OUR NORTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WEAK VORTS TO BEGIN
PERIODICALLY PASSING THE REGION WHILE CAPPING IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT 20 PERCENT DAYTIME POPS IN
THE GRIDS/ZONES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...MAINLY LIGHT FLOW IS PROGGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

THE HEAT WAVE IS BACK FOR THE NEXT WEEK!!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
356 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTING THE NERN ZONES WITH MID/UPR 60S
DEWPOINTS OVER SWRN MS AND 70S DEWPOINTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
N-CNTL TX WITH DRIER AIR ROTATING AROUND IT TOWARD THE AREA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AREA
88DS SHOW ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/FORECASTS. MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHILE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND BERMUDA HIGH RESUMES ITS NORMAL PLACE
ALONG THE UPPER GULF COAST. PROXIMITY TO RIDGE AXIS AND BETTER
CAPPING SHOULD KEEP THE INLAND ZONES DRY BUT HOT TODAY WITH MAX
TEMPS PUSHING 100. HOWEVER DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD MIX DOWN
ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO STAY LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES ABOVE
THE 108 HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AND LOCAL WRF ALL SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE GOOD RIDGING ALOFT HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP POPS LOW OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA WITH JUST ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED ALONG BAY/SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. AS USUAL CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EACH DAY THROUGH

BY MONDAY RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FARTHER SE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY INTO TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
WWD-MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE
ELECTED TO HEDGE BETS AND UP POPS SLIGHTLY TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE AREA-WIDE TO COVER. THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT BACK
TOWARD THE NW WHICH SHOULD HELP ALLOW MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION TO REINTRODUCE ITSELF TO THE FORECAST AREA SO SMALL
POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...OTHER THAN TYPICAL NOCTURNAL JETTING...LIGHT SRLY TO
SWRLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR - KIND OF DRY:

[Joe-Nathan]

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BACK, FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGH AROUND 98F W/ <20 CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
436 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL
KEEP CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
INTO THE MID 90S FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WILL CLIMB TO AROUND THE CENTURY MARK. THE HEAT INDEX
WILL CLIMB ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK BEFORE THE NOON HOUR AND RANGE
FROM 103 TO 108 DEGREES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HOT DAY
ON TAP. LATE WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE PULLS BACK TO THE WEST AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES DIG INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

LESS THAN 20% OF RAIN. MIGHT BREAK A HIGH TEMP TODAY

NWS HAS SOME HUMOR THIS MORNING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
646 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

.AVIATION...WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NE LA COULD PRODUCE SCT
CB AROUND AEX, OTHERWISE ALL SHOULD SEE CAVOK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009/
DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE FIRING NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM
KANSAS THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND DOWN INTO MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND IN THE
50S OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. STORMS WERE ALSO NOTED IN THE GULF
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS...THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. NOW...CLOSER TO HOME... UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING THE SAME BROKEN RECORD AGAIN TODAY...
HOT AND DRY WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 102 TO
106 THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE FRONT SIDE
OF THE RIDGE.

THE RIDGE ALOFT THAT HAS BROUGHT THIS PERSISTENT DRY HOT WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE LAST SIX WEEKS LOOKS TO FINALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE
WEST AND AMPLIFY ALONG THE ROCKIES. WHAT THIS HOLDS FOR THE REGION
IS A BREAK IN THE DROUGHT...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MOVING
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AND A RETURN OF SHOWERS.

PRECIP WATER AND INSTABILITY HAS BEEN PRESENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS WHAT WILL FINALLY CHANGE IS A SERIES OF
SHORTS WAVES WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH STARTING ON WEDNESDAY.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. STORMS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

K. KUYPER

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
654 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

.AVIATION...CHANCES FOR TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST.
WILL MENTION TEMPO MIFR VIS FOR TSTMS IN TERMINALS LFT AND ARA
WITH VCTS ELSEWHERE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2009/
..FINALLY A CHANCE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS DEVELOPING...

DISCUSSION...
FIRST THINGS FIRST ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS WHILE THE LAKES REGION IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL EXPERIENCE UPPER 90S.
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 101 TO 106 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
WILL ALLOW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS
AFTN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST WEEK.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE....HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS BREAKING DOWN AND
BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF PULLING BACK TO THE WEST WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS NEW SERIES OF STORMS WILL NOT END THE DROUGHT
BUT WILL HELP TO EASE SOME OF THE EFFECTS. THE OTHER BIT OF GOOD
NEWS IS TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS...NEAR 90.

AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES A TROF WILL DEVELOPED OVER THE CNTRL US AND
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE GULF REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE A COOL FRONT
DOWN TO THE COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS LATEST FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO COOL MORNING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S WHICH WILL BE A
GREAT CHANGE FROM THE USUAL MORNING LOWS OF THE UPPER 70S.
AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

K. KUYPER

[Joe-Nathan]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
535 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL ACT UPON
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OVER A WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG TO THE COAST SUNDAY. THIS WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVATED WITH GULF
MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEYOND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
654 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THIS HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE KBPT
TERMINAL...BUT ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY SUBSIDING RATHER QUICKLY. WRF
MODEL AND THE NATIONALLY RUN NAM CONTINUE TO NOT BE AS BULLISH ON
BRINGING ACTIVITY INLAND IN ITS CURRENT FORM. ACTUALLY MOST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CLOSE TO WHERE IT
IS NOW AND WEAKENS IT MID TO LATE MORNING. THEN AS SURFACE HEATING
GETS GOING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND AND EAST OF WHERE IT IS NOW. ACTUALLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LOOK TO BE BEST ALONG AND EAST OF A KAEX TO KARA LINE LATTER THIS
AFTERNOON.

WILL CONTINUE INCLUDING VCTS AT ALL SITES AND WENT AHEAD AND PUT
IN A PROB 30 AT KLCH AND TEMPO FURTHER TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
KBPT WILL BE MORE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME
ACTIVITY AROUND...BUT WITH THE MORNING ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
INITIAL STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THE
TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009/

SYNOPSIS...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE AND A
DEEPENING LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL
COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN OVER A WEEK.

SHORT TERM...COMPELLED TO GO HIGHER ON POPS TODAY DUE TO A DEEP
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH HIGH THETA AIR,
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND CLOSER TO 2 INCHES, AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENLA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE ALREADY
BELOW CLIMO GUIDANCE FOR THE I-10 ZONES. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RETREATING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD STILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE
WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND ABOVE GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE PRECIP INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROVIDES SOME FOCUS TO FIRE UP DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAT RETURNS SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WEAK BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT MOIST FLOW OFF THE
GULF WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TYPICAL SEABREEZE TYPE DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING DUE THE BETTER INSTABILITY
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING CLOSE
TO THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SEASONAL TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EXTENDED PORION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

Very good chance of rain today and tomorrow ahead of the COLD FRONT


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
529 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING, AND PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME FEWER MONDAY AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
FROM THE EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS IS NOT ANTICAPATED.

11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
642 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2009

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO EXPAND INLAND THIS MORNING
AS ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO HEAT UP...ESPECIALLY WITH LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS SERVING AS A FOCUS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER COMPLEX NOW OVER NORTHEAST TX IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AND SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING KAEX BY
MIDMORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE VCTS FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z...WITH TEMPO GROUPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE
EXPECT POSSIBLE CONVECTION A BIT EARLIER AROUND KAEX WITH TEMPO
GROUP FOR 16-20Z. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBYS AS WELL AS GUSTY
WINDS IN AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...SKIES AND VISBYS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2009/

SYNOPSIS...A FADING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH ANOTHER STRONGER COMPLEX
UPSTREAM ABOUT TO CROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR INTO NE TEXAS AND NW LOUSIANA.

SHORT TERM...ASSUMING PROPAGATION OF THE UPSTREAM MCS WILL
CONTINUE THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ARRIVING INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AROUND NOON JUST AS TEMPERATURES REACH CONVECTIVE
LEVELS. SINCE HIGH THETA AIR LIES IN THE PATH OF THIS MCS AND
THERE IS A FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A DEEP H2 TO H3
JETSTREAK OVER INTERIOR SE TEXAS AND CEN LA...AND THAT FCST PWATS
ARE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN THOSE AREAS, WILL GO AHEAD WITH A 50 POP
FOR THAT AREA. THIS MAY NEED UPDATING TO LIKELY CHANCES. A 50 POP
LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH SHOWERS
ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO SE TX...SW AND S CEN LA
AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE REGION COMES UNDER INCREASINGLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS JUST EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITH INSTABILITY FROM COOLING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST
CLIMO RAIN CHANCES THRU THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING BERMUDA RIDGE NEAR
THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW CLIMO BUT STILL MENTIONABLE
NEXT WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST WILL
AID IN THESE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS INTO SUNDAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE DUE
TO THE STALLING FRONT MONDAY AND BEYOND. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TAPER OFF AROUND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE EAST.

11

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180930
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
430 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DIVIDING THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. NWRN GULF COAST STATES REMAIN UNDER
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER WRN TX.
CLOSER TO HOME...KLCH RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
IMPULSE. BASED ON DEWPOINTS...SFC FRONT APPEARS TO EXTEND FM NEAR
CORSICANA NE ALONG THE ARK/LA BORDER THEN EAST ACRS CNTRL MS.
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY...STALLING NEAR
THE COAST BY SUNDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT FOR TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA AND E TX AS
THE FRONT PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH. KEPT CHC
POPS FOR MAINLY SRN AREAS WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.7
TO 1.8 INCHES AND CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN 1800 AND 2500 J/KG...WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

AFTN TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR NORMAL...WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES IN AREAS THAT SEE PRECIPITATION. BY
TONIGHT...SFC FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
BECOMING SITUATED OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 60S ACRS CNTRL LA/E TX...AND
LOWER 70S ALONG I-10. SHOULD FEEL QUITE NICE COMPARED TO RECENT
CONDITIONS!

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVELS ACRS TX INTO SRN LA...WITH BEST CHANCES
ACRS SE TX AND FAR SWRN LA. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF A BIT ON
MONDAY...WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK...WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND TOWARD LATE WEEK. MONDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE SOME OF THE COOLEST SEEN IN A
WHILE...RUNNING ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACRS CNTRL LA
AND EAST TX AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACRS SRN ZONES.
LOWS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WEEK AS
SRLY FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
WEAK FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL REDEVELOP EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE GULF.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 20/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS HELPING INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THEREFORE
WILL ONLY PLACE VCSH TO START OFF THE TAF FOR KBPT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WANE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP
DEVELOP HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE PLACED VCTS
AFTER 20/19Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AT ALL TAF SITES...HOWEVER THE
BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA
WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE KBPT AND KLCH TAF SITES...WHERE MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE AT ITS BEST.

AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2009/

SYNOPSIS...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRONT IS STALLED OUT THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT
WERE IN THE MID 60S WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 70S. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST NEAR THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WITH
DISTURBANCES OCCASIONALLY RIDING IN THAT FLOW. ONE DISTURBANCE IS
SHOWING UP IN EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DALLAS TO LUFKIN.

DISCUSSION...WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA... WILL KEEP POPS
SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. CAN`T RULE
OUT A COUPLE STRONG STORMS AS WELL. FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
NORTHWARD AND WASH OUT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AT THE
SURFACE ALLOWING MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN. GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN
AND WHERE THESE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OR IF
ANY SPAWN MCS TO OUR NORTHWEST. BUT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE EACH AND EVERY DAY THIS WEEK... SHOULD RESULT
IN DAILY CONVECTION ABOUT 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRYING TO APPROACH
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED POPS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED STALLED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND WASH OUT TODAY
INTO TOMORROW...WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GULF WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON TAP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DOWN IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE. ONE FEATURE IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TX AND CENTRAL LA. MOST OF
THE ENERGY WILL BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH ENHANCED CHANCES ON THURSDAY WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF A FRONT INTO THE AREA AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
RIDING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME. FRONT WILL STALL AND THEN BACK UP
ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
621 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

.AVIATION...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH NOCTURNAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING NORTH
AND ONSHORE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD
TAF SITES AND VCSH SHOULD COVER THIS UNTIL ABOUT 21/14Z UNTIL
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
NEARS THE AREA AND HELPS FOCUS ACTIVITY. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD
AND PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KAEX FROM
21/20Z-21/24Z WITH VCTS AT REMAINING TAF SITES.

AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL SITUATION SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE 4
CORNERS REGION IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. STILL LOOKING AT A NORTHWEST ALOFT ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
WHILE AT THE SURFACE READINGS THIS MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 70S
ACROSS CENTRAL LA TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LOCAL
RADARS ARE QUIET AT THIS TIME BUT NOTICING A BIG COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS UP ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE RIDING DOWN THE FLOW.

DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE PICKING UP THE FEATURE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDING THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS PW VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES AND CAPE AROUND 3000. SO
NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE ADVANCES IN OUR DIRECTION. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TX AND CENTRAL LA.
MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE SPC SLIGHT RISK BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY
WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL. WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THANKS TO ADDED CLOUD COVER AND POPS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WE WILL SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THIS WEEK WITH ENHANCED POPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF A FRONT INTO THE AREA AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
RIDING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY IN THE
MODELS. FRONT WILL STALL AND THEN BACK UP ON FRIDAY.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND... NW FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION. INDICATION FROM
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH
COULD HELP SEND ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SEABREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITH KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THRU THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 9 AM... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AFFECTING CENTRAL LA AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
15 MPH. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER
HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR MOVING TO
THE NORTH AT 15 MPH. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH PER HOUR.

$$

GRIFFIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
411 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
RICH MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ANY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CARVES OUT MOST OF THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTWARD. THIS IS
HELPING TO PROVIDE A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OVER THE REGION AND HELPING PUSH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY RICH MOISTURE IS NOTED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES.

LOCAL RADARS HAVE BEEN DETECTING PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GOING.
RADAR ALSO SHOWING STREAMER TYPE NOCTURNAL GULF SHOWERS COULD BE
DEVELOPING SHORTLY.

RUA

DISCUSSION...
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION...SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY REACHING NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING BEFORE STALLING. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECTED TO
SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME COASTAL NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS DECENT MOISTURE HANGS AROUND.

OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
MOUNTAIN WEST WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS
PROGGED TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS NEXT WEEK ROLLS AROUND...PROGS SHOW SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A DAILY CHANCE OF DIURNAL SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION.

RUA

MARINE...
WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF. THESE WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE BY MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS.

SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
GENERALLY THE RULE.

RUA

HYDROLOGY...
JUST A REMINDER...TODAY WEDNESDAY JULY 22...RIVER FORECAST
SERVICES WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN FOR BUNDICK LAKE LOCATED IN
BEAUREGARD PARISH. MORE INFORMATION ON THIS CAN BE FOUND AT THE
NWS LAKE CHARLES WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/LAKECHARLES THEN FOLLOW
THE LINK TITLED LAKE LEVEL FORECASTS TO BEGIN AT BUNDICK LAKE ON
JULY 22.

RUA

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
633 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AEX EARLY THIS MORNING. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTIONS FOR LOW CEILINGS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND THE REGION WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING. INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY BUT SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS EVENING.

&&

GRIFFIN



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EARLY MORNING. MOISTURE ANALYSIS
USING LATEST RAOB AND GPS-MET DATA SHOWS DRIER AIR ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PWAT AROUND 1.30 INCHES TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES NEAR THE COAST.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A RIDGE HANGING AROUND OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. AGAIN
THIS IS CREATING A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME LAND BREEZE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL MARSHES...WITH
STORM MOTION KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE.

RUA

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT WILL WAFFLE AROUND THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY WITH
BEST MOISTURE CONFINED SOUTH OF IT...OR ROUGHLY FROM THE HIGHWAY
190 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. ALSO...WITH 70H FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FROM THE NORTH...SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE LATE IN DEVELOPING AND
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND DROP POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES TO
SLIGHT CHANCE.

FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS FILTERING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...SHOULD ONLY SEE ISOLATED...AT
BEST...IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS SCENARIO CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. WITH LESS CONVECTION...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

MONDAY BEGINS A TRANSITION INTO A MORE MOIST PATTERN AS PROGS
STILL SHOW SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING 2 INCHES OR GREATER BY TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

RUA

MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
AND DISSIPATES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEK...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RUA

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1052 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

UPDATE

WEAK FRONT STALLED ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...WITH WEAK NE FLOW
ACROSS NE TX/N LA...AND SW FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
CALM WINDS NEAR THE BROAD FRONTAL TROF. KLCH RADAR SHOWS ISO/SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES OF S LA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS OUT 60NM. JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF A TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUD
FROM A TOWERING CU ACROSS SE CALCASIEU PARISH NEAR THE HAYES/BELL
CITY REGION...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR THE FORECAST...AREAS NORTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL
REMAIN PRECIP FREE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S. AFTERWARDS...CURRENT WV IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK PERTURBATION OVER C TX MOVING ESE. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS
MID LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AND LIFT OVER OUR REGION AFTER 21Z...WHICH
WILL BE JUST IN TIME OF MAX HEATING FOR THE REGION...RESULTING IN
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SINCE CONFIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS ABOUT 50/50...ONLY RAISED
POPS TO 30% FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

DML

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
254 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

DISCUSSION

WEAK FRONT STALLED ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...WITH WEAK NE FLOW
ACROSS NE TX/N LA...AND SW FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
L&V WINDS NEAR THE BROAD FRONTAL TROF. EVEN THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR ALOFT WAS NOTED EARLIER...KLCH RADAR SHOWS SCT SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS SE TX/SW LA...AND INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE. CURRENT WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK PERTURBATION OVER C TX MOVING ESE...WITH PVA
ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM. THE 12Z NAM SHOWED THIS SCENARIO HAPPENING
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40% OVER C AND S LA DUE TO
THE INCREASED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING AND LIFT OVER OUR REGION STILL EXPECTED AFTER 21Z...LEFT
30% FOR THIS EVENING AS WELL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF JULY...THE PREDOMINATE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT TIME
REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. WEAKER RIDGES WILL DOMINATE BOTH
THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. THIS IS WHY WEAK FRONTAL TROFS ARE MAKING
IT THIS FAR SOUTH IN LATE JULY.

FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO 20% DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS.
WITH THE LESS CLOUD COVER COMES SLIGHTLY HIGHER HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

BY MON INTO THU OF NEXT WEEK...PRECIP WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN. ANOTHER FRONTAL TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
INCREASED LIFT AND MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...TUE & WED APPEARS
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AS A RATHER SHARP SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR 90/LOWER 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AGAIN REMAINING IN THE MID 70S.



DML

MARINE

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY...KEEPING A MAINLY LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW (LESS THAN 10 KT) AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

[Joe-Nathan]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
453 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...DECENT GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A DAILY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS LOOK TO
BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ON THOSE DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THANKS TO A WEAK MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO INCLUDED VCSH FOR LCH AND BPT THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM SETX. A FEW
POP UP THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER SETX AND
THE COASTAL AREAS OF SWLA. MENTIONED VCTS FOR THOSE TERMINALS TO
COVER THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

GRIFFIN
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009/

UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM NORTH TEXAS IS KICKING OFF A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EAST TEXAS WITH MAINLY JUST TRACE AMOUNTS BEING
REPORTED. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE ZONES FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009/

DISCUSSION...
VERY DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT HARD TO FIND THIS MORNING AND LOOKS TO
BE LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM JUST SOUTH OF LUFKIN TO LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...OR BASICALLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF.
THIS FRONT MAY MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GPS-MET INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE
WATER DATA STILL SHOWS SOME DECENT MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH VALUES AROUND 1.9 INCHES...WHILE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
VALUES DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY.

OF OTHER NOTE IS THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY ON LOCAL RADARS WITH
SO FAR NO NOCTURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF...AND SOME
TIMES THIS IS A GOOD INDICATOR ON JUST HOW ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER LAND LATER TODAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A LITTLE
MORE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NOTED.

FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE TO
FILTER IN WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE SEA
BREEZE WHICH SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE COAST.

STILL SEE QUITE A MOISTURE INCREASE FOR NEXT WEEK AS LOW AND MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF PROVIDING A DEEPER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES AGAIN
BY TUESDAY.

BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE REGION PROVIDING
A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT AND FOCUS TO PROVIDE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
THAN THE ROUTINE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND JUST NORTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. A MORE PREVAILING AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

RUA

[Joe-Nathan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
308 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

SYNOPSIS

THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
INTO THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO...WEAKENING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

FURTHER NORTH...THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH...REACHING A BIRMINGHAM TO JACKSON TO SHREVEPORT LINE
BY MONDAY MORNING...WHERE IT SUBSEQUENTLY SLOWS TO A HALT...AND
EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT.

FURTHER-UP...A LOW INDEX WAVE PATTERN PERSISTS IN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES...A DEEP CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND A DEEP
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICAN DESERT.

AN ATTENDANT MERIDIONAL POLAR-FRONT JET CORES ANTI-CYCLONICALLY
THROUGH OMAHA THROUGH JACKSON THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.



DISCUSSION

THE GULF CONVEYOR BELT AIRSTREAM HAS RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS
THE UPPER GULF COAST STATES. PERSISTENT GULF BREEZES ARE
TRANSPORTING RICH AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST-CARIBBEAN AIR INTO THE
WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE GFS DEPICTS SALIENT COLORADO-FRONT-RANGE SHORT
-WAVES PROPGATING TO THE SOUTHEAST...PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS EVENING. CONSEQUENTLY...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE AS SHEARING INCREASES IN THE MIDTROPOSPHERE.

OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT
SEASONAL FOR LATE JULY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY.

[Joe-Nathan]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 8 AM...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RAINFALL TO REMAIN
LIGHT WITH ANY GIVEN SHOWER...AVERAGING LESS THAN FIVE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
602 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...THOUGH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST OR EAST TEXAS...THEN MOVE EAST INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES BEGIN TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME
LEVELS BY LATE WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE MOIST THIS MORNING BASED ON 00Z LCH RAOB AND
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS...WHICH ALL INDICATE PWAT VALUES
ARE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
FLOW...AROUND THE BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH...IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
THE SFC...AND GRADUALLY VEERS TO THE WEST AT AROUND 7K TO 8K FT.
ABOVE THIS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AROUND THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

COMPLEX SHORT TERM FORECAST TO CONTEND WITH THIS MORNING REGARDING
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TO START OFF
WITH...FORECAST MODELS DID NOT DEPICT THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS NOR THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA VERY WELL...THOUGH THE 4KM WRF DID BY FAR A BETTER JOB
THAN THE NAM OR GFS. THIS MODEL HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THOUGH ITS TIMING WAS LATE BY SEVERAL HOURS YESTERDAY...THE
FORECAST LOOP OF RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROVED TO BE QUITE CLOSE WHAT
ACTUALLY TRANSPIRED.

PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF LIFT...WITH MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE SERVING AS LOW LEVEL POINTS OF
FOCUS. THE INCREASED DEPTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY PERMIT A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE TODAY VS YESTERDAY...AND THE 4KM WRF MODEL SHOWS
NEARLY ALL OF OUR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING INITIATED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PROPAGATING NORTHWARD. I AM
SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THAT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE CONFINED
SOLELY TO THIS BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ON
RADAR...WHICH IS CERTAINLY NOT BEING CAUSED BY THE SEA BREEZE.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL ENTER THIS PICTURE THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY NEARING THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO SET OFF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST/NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER THE TEXAS
LAKES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

HEALTHY RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AS OUR MOISTURE
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO TREK EAST TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO FALL BACK TOWARD MORE NORMAL VALUES BY MID TO LATE
WEEK...AS THE EAST CONUS TROF BECOMES MORE BROAD AND THE LOW/MID
LEVEL RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...BEGINS TO EXERT A GREATER DEGREE OF
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND INTO THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO. PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WILL SET-OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS.

&&

[Joe-Nathan]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
557 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 8 AM...INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. 190. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
552 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER NE TX/N LA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE OVER C LA...AFFECTING KAEX TERMINAL WITH INTERMITTENTLY
IFR VSBY/CEILING THIS MORNING. BY 16Z EXPECT THIS AREA OF TSRA TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THRU 20Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z. FURTHER
SOUTH AT KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA...SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP A BIT LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT NEVERTHELESS...BE AFFECTING THESE TERMINALS
WITH IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING...PRECIP WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MEAN TROF
DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING
NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW INTO THE BAJA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM NEAR SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA WWD TO
NEAR WACO TEXAS.

YESTERDAY EVENING`S RAOB AND LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE
AREA...ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. KLCH AND KPOE
VWPS...ALONG WITH REGIONAL WIND PROFILER NETWORK...SHOW DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...WHICH GRADUALLY VEERS TO WESTERLY AT
AROUND 20K FT. THEY ALSO SHOW A 25-35KT LLJ BETWEEN 2-4K FT.

THUS FAR...WEATHER RADARS SHOWING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RETURNS OVER EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION...SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE OF VORT MAXES...ONE THAT
ORIGINATED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND ANOTHER THAT DROPPED
SOUTHEAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SERVES AS A SFC FOCUS...WHILE THE CONVECTION FEEDS OFF THE VERY HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WHICH IS CONTINUALLY FED IN BY THE LLJ.

THE BULK OF THE REPETITIVE AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST. STILL...THE AREA WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...THAT
VERY HIGH POPS ARE WARRANTED AMID THE MOISTURE LADEN AND UNSTABLE AIR.
ALSO IN THE MIX WILL BE AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE...WHICH SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE PROPAGATING WELL INLAND WITH THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW.

AS THE SHORTWAVE(S) PULL OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...THE
DEEP MOISTURE GOES ALONG WITH IT WITH SLIGHTLY...AND I DO MEAN
SLIGHTLY...DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MOIST BELOW H5...AND THE
GFS/NAM CONTINUING TO SHOW SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE MEAN TROF BROADENS OUT A BIT. MEANWHILE...AT LOW
LEVELS...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT AT
LEAST MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER DEEP MOISTURE POOL SETTLING OVER
THE AREA. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL VALUES INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...
LLJ RESULTING IN SCEC CONDITIONS AT AND WEST OF CAMERON. WILL
HEADLINE THROUGH MID MORNING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW
CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&