San Antonio, Texas

[satx_pilot]

... Record high temperature tied at San Antonio yesterday April 9th...

A record high temperature of 99 degrees was tied at San Antonio
yesterday. This ties the old record for April 9th of 99 set in 1963.


It was in the 70's at noon. As soon as the West Texas dry line move through, temperatures skyrocketed into the 90's.

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 202043
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
343 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
SUFFICIENT...BUT ANY FOG WHICH DEVELOPS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE GRIDS. WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW COULD SEE SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AREA-WIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND
PEAK ON TUESDAY AS THE FROPA PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES (POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND
ALLOWS REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS) CAN THUS BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...INSTABILITY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER JET STREAK...COULD SEE SOME STORMS APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST MID-WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THE
BETTER TAP OF GULF MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BEING KEPT TO THE LOWER 80S MAINLY BECAUSE OF
LIMITED SUNSHINE AND AREAS OF RAIN AND WEAK CAA. AS THE UPPER LOW
EJECTS TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WILL SEE A WARMING TREND
ENSUE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 92 71 82 63 / 30 30 40 60 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 91 70 83 63 / 30 40 40 60 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 72 83 62 / 30 30 30 60 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 89 68 79 59 / 30 30 40 50 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 94 72 84 63 / 20 10 20 30 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 90 69 79 61 / 30 30 50 50 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 71 84 62 / 30 20 30 40 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 92 71 83 63 / 30 30 30 60 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 91 72 84 66 / 20 40 30 70 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 91 73 83 63 / 30 30 30 50 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 92 73 84 64 / 30 30 30 50 30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/01

[ROLLTIDE]

0
FXUS64 KSJT 211744
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1244 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009


.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION/

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF LUBBOCK TO CHILDRESS AT 17Z.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO TO KABI AROUND 00Z...KSJT
AND KBBD 3Z... AND ALONG I-10 AROUND 6Z. BEST LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EAST OF ABILENE...SAN ANGELO...SONORA LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF
FRONT...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST 2 TO 4 HOURS AHEAD OF FRONT.
CIGS BECOME MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 6Z. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...AT KJCT AND KSOA EARLY/MID MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE ADVANCING QUICKLY NORTHWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SITES OF KJCT AND KSOA. EXPECT THESE CEILINGS TO
CONTINUE NORTHWARD TO KSJT AND KBBD BY 13Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. IN
ADDITION...WE STILL HAVE SOUTH WINDS OF 40 KNOTS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE LLWS THROUGH 15Z OR 16Z THIS
MORNING UNTIL MIXING CAN DIMINISH THE DIFFERENCE IN SFC WINDS AND
THESE WINDS OFF THE SURFACE. WE WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH VCTS AND CB GROUPS.
A WIND SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FIRST AT KABI BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS
EVENING...THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SITES AFTER 06Z. ALONG WITH
THE WIND SHIFT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG
THE FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. KABI...KBBD
AND KJCT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

20/NAGLE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

SHORT TERM...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHARP TROUGH
BEGINNING TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WE HAVE SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS AS A SFC
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEST TX NORTH INTO CANADA ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

A 120+ KNOT 250MB JET WILL HELP DIG THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE IT
WILL TRANSITION TO A CUT OFF LOW IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS
TROUGH/LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE AREA THAT ACTUALLY CONTAINED SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS. THIS HELPS SOMEWHAT WITH MONDAY/S FORECAST AS WV
IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
LATER TODAY. WITH ANOTHER HOT DAY(HIGHS IN THE 90S)...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT WE
HAD STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY...AND CONDITIIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR TODAY. WE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE EAST OF A
SWEETWATER TO JUNCTION LINE...STILL THINK THAT SOME OF THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS IRION/CROCKETT
COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OVERNIGHT THAT FAR WEST
AS WELL. SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AS IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE
INSTABILITY WILL OBVIOUSLY BE LESS THAN THE AFTERNOON...0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS COULD DROP INTO
THE 50S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

20/NAGLE

LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND ALL HAVE THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH LATE MORNING
AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER
LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RAIN
ENDING BY THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

DAYTIME TEMPERATUES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MORNING LOWS SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE 50S THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 92 57 66 49 75 / 20 50 50 10 10
SAN ANGELO 93 58 68 49 75 / 20 30 60 10 10
JUNCTION 92 65 70 52 77 / 20 30 60 20 20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 221512
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1012 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.UPDATE...
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT GENERALLY THRU THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE GUST FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE/COASTAL PLAINS. CONVECTION TAPERING OFF
OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE HAVE THE
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY URBAN
OR SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES FOR THIS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN
THE FASTER MOVEMENT/DURATION. 12Z PW AT KCRP WAS WELL OVER TWO
INCHES...HOWEVER DEEPENING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY CUT OFF THE INFLOW OF THE TROPICAL AIR AND FOCUS THE
HEAVIER RAINS TO THE SOUTH EAST TOWARD THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.

INCREASED THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A CATEGORY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT HIGHER WIND SPEEDS THAN THE
ADVERTISED 10 TO 15 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE
ATTAINABLE AND WILL NOT ADJUST YET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT ALONG A KDRT TO KSAT TO KARM LINE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. AN AREA OF NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE RA AT
KAUS, KSAT, AND KSSF THROUGH 21Z WHEN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THOSE AREAS. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN RISE TO VFR. NLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL HELP DRAW THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY TODAY. THE 4 AM POSITION OF THE PREFRONTAL ROUND OF STORMS
WAS BEARING DOWN ON THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH NEAR CONTINUOUS
COVERAGE FOR AREAS EAST OF JCT. WHILE SOME STORMS SHOWED A
POTENTIAL TO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT, THE
MORNING TIMING APPEARS TO FAVOR NON-SEVERE STORMS. BEHIND THE
COMPLEX, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE PUNCHED THROUGH THE
SJT AREA AND SHOULD CATCH UP TO THE RAINS, PUSHING THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON. THIS MEANS HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED, WITH
SOME AREAS SEEING A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS PERSISTENT THAN THE MORNING ROUND OF RAINS. SOME
HEAVY MENTION WAS LEFT IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF I-35. THE HEAVY RAIN FOCUS SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM OCEAN WATERS
INTERACT WITH THE SHALLOW FRONT.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS SIGNIFICANT RAIN
OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AREA, BUT THE DRIER GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS LOOK
MORE PRACTICAL DUE TO THE GULF INFLUENCE. NEVERTHELESS A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
IMPACTS OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY SURFACE TROUGHING FEATURE ALONG
THE COAST, KEEPING WINDS MOSTLY FROM THE NE. A TRANSITION DAY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT STILL CAPABLE OF GENERATING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. A SEASONAL AND DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT MODELS KEEP THE PASSING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSIVE, AND WEAK IMPULSES COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 59 79 63 81 / 70 40 20 30 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 59 79 62 82 / 70 40 30 30 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 78 60 79 62 81 / 70 40 30 30 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 55 76 61 78 / 60 30 20 20 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 61 80 62 83 / 40 20 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 57 79 61 80 / 70 30 20 30 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 59 79 60 80 / 70 30 20 30 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 60 79 61 80 / 70 40 30 30 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 79 64 79 65 83 / 80 50 40 40 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 60 79 63 81 / 70 40 30 30 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 79 61 79 63 82 / 70 40 30 30 30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05

[ROLLTIDE]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 231752
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1252 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OFF AND ON LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS WILL BE VFR AND VIS WILL
REMAIN UNLIMITED AS RAIN IS VERY LIGHT. RAIN WILL END SOONER AT
DRT...BY 20Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR REPEAT OF RAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THE 12Z-18Z
PERIOD. NOT CLEAR ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO GET MORE SPECIFIC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009/

UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. ISOLATED THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE NE COUNTIES AND MAX
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED DOWN A CATEGORY OR TWO DUE TO
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY IS DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY WITH HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
BEEN NOTED, HOWEVER WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST
AS TOO ISOLATED. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX/SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY WHILE A NORTHWARD MOVING 850 MB FRONT
INCREASES ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG
WITH HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY SATURDAY. A TAILING
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND ONLY EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LEAD TO NO POPS ON SUNDAY. MODELS THEN
DIVERGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND NOGAPS
GENERATE AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THAT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MAINTAIN A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THE GFS/NOGAPS WOULD BE WET AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
WOULD BE DRY. FOR NOW, WILL RETAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOPEFULLY, FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL COME TO A
CONSENSUS. MAV/MEX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 60 70 61 81 67 / 50 80 30 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 58 73 61 81 62 / 50 80 30 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 60 72 60 81 64 / 50 70 20 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 59 70 60 80 64 / 30 70 20 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 80 61 85 67 / 20 30 10 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 70 60 78 66 / 40 80 20 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 78 59 82 65 / 40 50 20 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 60 71 60 79 66 / 50 70 20 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 74 65 82 69 / 50 80 40 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 61 74 62 81 67 / 50 60 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 60 75 61 80 67 / 50 60 20 20 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
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000
FXUS64 KEWX 281519 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1019 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE 1ST AND 2ND PERIOD QPF AND SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE 12Z NAM12 AND LIMITED RUC OUTPUT. ALSO
INCREASED 1ST PERIOD POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA GIVEN
THE SAME DATA AND MORE ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THERE
REFLECTED IN SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL AFFECT
KSSF TO KAUS THROUGH 15Z. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH AT 22 KTS
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND WILL REACH KAUS BY 17Z, AND KSAT TO KDRT
ARND 21Z. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST 10 KTS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND CEILINGS BECOME MVFR. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING`S MODEL RUNS (AND THE PAST SEVERAL) HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN USHERING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT..ENTERING THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE
SOUTH PLAINS AT THE MOMENT..WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY..POISED ALONG OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER BY MIDDAY. S/W
ENERGY IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SHALLOW
OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE ENTIRE CWA. HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN HOWEVER WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS
TONIGHT. AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON..
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BUT WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL BUT NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT. AS RIDGING ALOFT
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPPER PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING EAST
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE..READINGS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THURSDAY WILL BRING ENHANCED WESTERLIES TO
THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS EAST WITH HIGHS AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET WILL CAUSE THE WEAK FRONT TO WAVE ALONG THE COAST
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 66 86 70 88 / 20 20 20 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 93 64 87 69 90 / 30 20 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 67 86 69 89 / 30 30 20 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 63 82 69 86 / 20 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 72 90 74 93 / 20 20 10 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 65 83 69 88 / 20 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 70 87 71 89 / 20 30 20 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 93 66 87 69 89 / 30 20 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 67 84 71 87 / 30 20 20 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 69 86 71 88 / 20 30 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 94 71 88 72 89 / 20 30 20 20 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11/18/19

[ROLLTIDE]

...

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
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000
FXUS64 KEWX 301555
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1055 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

.UPDATE...
WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH AND WEST OF SAN ANTONIO RESULTED IN
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA HAS DEW
POINTS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WHERE INSOLATION WILL BE BEST. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL OTHERWISE PRECLUDE CONVECTION WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS
LIKELY TO HOLD TEMPS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED. AS THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO
WASH OUT, THE EVENING WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET; HOWEVER, DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING ENERGY ALOFT COMING IN FROM THE WEST
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE
RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST WITH THE BASE OF A PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH BEGINNING TO ENHANCE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY. A BROAD AREA OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL ACTIVITY WEST OF
MEXICO SHOULD ENHANCE THIS RAIN POTENTIAL BY INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO AN AREA THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE A DRY SLOT REGION.
THE TROPICAL PATTERN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR LATER
PERIODS, SINCE A FRONTAL ZONE SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND COULD MAKE
FOR A CLASSIC OCTOBER HEAVY RAIN PATTERN. MANY UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE
STRENGTH, DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009/

AVIATION...
CIGS 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN TO OVC IS EXPECTED THRU 15Z. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A KPEZ TO KT82 LINE THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME 3 THSD TO 5 THSD SCT
AFTER 15Z TO 4 THSD TO 8 THSD SCT AFTER 19Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM TONIGHT AROUND 1 THSD TO 2 THSD FT AFTER 05Z. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE S AND SE 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
VCNTY KDRT AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPED UNDER THE RETURN CLOUDINESS.
INSERTED ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WESTERN HALF OF
CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BRING AN UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD AND BRINGS NIGHTTIME STRATUS AND DAYTIME
FAIR WEATHER CU. MIN TEMPS WILL RISE WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS HOLD
STEADY. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MINOR DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY---
WITH THE UPPER HIGH HOLDING FIRM ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO, THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL OVER TEXAS. A COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AND MAKES IT TO THE COAST
FRIDAY EVENING. FROM THERE IS BECOME STATIONARY AND RETURNS AS A
WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH P.W.`S IN PLACE, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY-
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY, PUMPING
SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE U.S. SINCE THERE WILL BE NO
AIRMASS EXCHANGE THIS PERIOD, TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH DRY LINE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER VAL VERDE
COUNTY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE NOCTURNAL LIFT ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT FOR DRIZZLE SUNDAY AND STREAMER SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 74 92 70 85 / 10 10 20 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 73 93 69 86 / 10 10 20 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 72 91 72 85 / 20 10 20 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 73 88 64 84 / 10 10 20 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 74 96 70 90 / 20 10 10 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 73 89 64 84 / 10 10 20 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 72 93 69 88 / 20 10 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 73 94 72 85 / 20 10 20 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 74 89 71 83 / 10 10 30 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 74 91 72 85 / 20 10 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 74 92 74 87 / 20 10 20 20 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 011430
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

.UPDATE...
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MOISTURE PLUME FROM EASTERN
PACIFIC CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BETWEEN LBB AND ABI. HAVE UPDATED POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATION STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CONTINUED EFFECTS OF
MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE REGION. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009/

AVIATION...
CIGS 2 THSD TO 3 THSD BKN WILL BECOME 5 THSD SCT TO BKN WITH
HIGHER CLOUDS SCT TO BKN ABOVE 10 THSD FT AFTER 17Z. SCT SHRA FROM
NORTH OF KDRT TO WEST OF KAUS WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR KAUS TO KSAT
THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM FROM THE HILL COUNTRY AND EAST TO LA GRANGE AND HALLETTSVILLE
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 05Z TONIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME CIGS 3 THSD TO 5 THSD BKN WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KECU TO CARRIZO SPRINGS LINE.
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH A COLD FRONT
AFTER 06Z VCNTY KAUS AND VCNTY KSAT AROUND 09Z. BY 12Z
FRIDAY WINDS AT KDRT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009/

UPDATE...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY HAVE BECOME
MORE SOLID, SO UPPED THE POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR COUNTIES IN ITS
PATH. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY-
AN INTENSIFYING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY
CAUSING UPPER HEIGHTS TO DROP OVER TEXAS AND SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL DUMP FROM 1/10 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN. UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, KEEPING THE
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFTING OVER THE FRONTAL
SLOPE BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST
FLOW OVER THE FRONT IS AIMED AT THE SOUTHERN FACE OF THE
ESCARPMENT WEST OF SAN ANTONIO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
CONTINUOUS RAINS WITH WIDESPREAD ONE INCH AMOUNTS. LITTLE DIURNAL
CHANGE BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS SATURDAY.

SAT NIGHT-
ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD WILL INCREASE RAINFALL
RATES ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. RAINFALL
TOTALS FOR THIS EPISODE STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
ALL FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING A LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTAL BUT
PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY- A MEAN UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND WINDS
OVER TEXAS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE
MID LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY DECREASE RAINFALL COVERAGE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY- THE MEAN UPPER TROF SEPARATES INTO A
SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW NEAR BAJA AND A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM TROF. THIS WEILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH TEXAS BUT STALLING OUT BEFORE REACHING THE HILL COUNTRY.
SO A RETURN TO MILD SEASONAL TEMPS ARE ON TAP.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

64/53

[ROLLTIDE]

....

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 041142
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PERIODS OF SHRA ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA. HAVE GENERALLY HANDLED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS. SHRA/TSRA
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH IFR TO POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT ALL SITES AFTER 04-05Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER CHANGES IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND FOR AN EARLY TO MID OCTOBER SETTING. FOR TODAY...TRENDS
FROM YESTERDAY TO EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW WAVE OF S/W ENERGY
COMING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS EARLY OCT. WEATHER PATTERN...
SHOWED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM CDT TODAY...FOR AN AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MOUNTAIN HOME IN KERR COUNTY TO
HONDO TO PEARSALL. THIS INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR TODAY COULD
CONTINUE FOR PART OF THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
WITH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY...AS ANOTHER
FALL RAIN MAKING WEATHER SYSTEM COMES ACROSS FROM THE WEST
AGAIN. SHOWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AS THE STORM TRACK GOES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. AS A RESULT
EXPECT LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
WARM AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY A FEW CHANGES IN WEATHER PATTERNS
SHOWS UP AS A STRONG 500 HPA TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON THURSDAY. AS THE STORM TRACK COMES FURTHER SOUTH LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL MOVE
FASTER...AND BRING WITH IT A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
SHOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE COLD FRONT
FOR FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND MILD TO WARM DAYTIME HIGHS
NEXT WEEKEND...OCT. 10TH AND 11TH. EXPECT SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT TO TRACK TO THE EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT
SHOWED MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY...AS DRY AND COOLER AIR SPILLS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT OF THIS COMING WEEKEND TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY OCT. 11.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 67 84 77 91 / 80 50 50 30 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 67 84 74 91 / 80 50 50 30 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 69 86 74 92 / 80 50 50 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 80 65 80 74 89 / 80 50 50 30 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 71 89 76 91 / 70 30 30 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 66 82 74 89 / 80 50 50 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 72 88 75 92 / 80 50 50 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 67 85 74 91 / 80 50 50 30 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 68 86 75 91 / 80 50 50 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 72 86 77 91 / 80 50 50 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 72 88 76 92 / 80 50 50 20 20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BU RNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVAC A...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

$$

08/25

[satx_pilot]

LOTS OF RAIN!!! Thank you LORD! 3.25in overnight

[ROLLTIDE]

LOTS OF RAIN!!! Thank you LORD! 3.25in overnight

bet the wife is really unhappy

[satx_pilot]

AS OF 830 AM CDT THIS MORNING...5.42 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT
SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS HAS BROKEN THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL AT SAN ANTONIO FOR OCTOBER 4TH. THE OLD RECORD WAS
5.29 INCHES ON OCTOBER 4...1942.

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 051807
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
107 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2009

.AVIATION...
A COOL STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM ROCKSPRINGS TO
NEAR HONDO AND EAST TO COLUMBUS. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WERE
LIFTING SLOWLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS THINNING CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. I-35 CORRIDOR..
IFR CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME VFR CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TIL SUNSET. IFR CIGS WILL
FORM AGAIN BY MIDNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG VCNTY KAUS LOWERING VSBYS
AOB 3 MILES BECOMING AFTER 15Z CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVING RAPIDLY
TO VFR CONDITIONS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. KDRT
TERMINAL..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS FORMING
AFTER 10Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009/

UPDATE...
LATE THIS MORNING THE FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM SPEAKS TO
PLEASANTON TO ROCKSPRINGS. A SHALLOW AND COOL AIRMASS WAS LOCATED
NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY ERODE/MODIFY AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE BEST
AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
PWS AROUND 2 INCHES...A WEAK VORT MAX WEST OF BIG BEND MOVING
EASTWARD AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS 1 TO 3 DEGREES NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FCST UNCHANGED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009/

UPDATE...
SHALLOW COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. ATTM THE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM JUNCTION TO SAN ANTONIO
TO COLUMBUS. LOW CEILINGS...PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WERE
OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
UPDATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009/

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING ACROSS S CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING AND
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR A KDRT TO 50S KSAT TO 25N KVCT LINE BY
1Y7Z. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND VFR BY AFTERNOON OR
18Z. ISOLD SHRA AND PATCHY -DZ WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND MOVE
NWD THIS MORNING...BECOMING ISOLD-SCT SHRSA/TSRA BY THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF I35. OTHERWISE VFR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT QUICKLY BECOMING MVFR THEN IFR AFTER 04Z THIS
EVENING AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES NWD. LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY CONTINUING TIL ABOUT 06Z/15Z...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STREAM
NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE SKIMPY...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WET THE PAVEMENT
MAKING FOR A SLIPPERY MORNING COMMUTE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR
INTO THE REGION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CONTINUES AND COUPLES WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO NEAR CLIMO NORMS
(20-30 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING THE BEST AREA-WIDE
CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA FOR THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE LATE-WEEK
COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS WEDNESDAY AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL MODERATE AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES.
OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
NOTICEABLY COOLER MORNING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
WILL WARM TO CHAMBER- OF-COMMERCE READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 92 72 86 75 / 20 40 40 40 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 91 70 87 73 / 20 40 40 40 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 73 86 73 / 20 30 30 30 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 86 68 83 72 / 20 50 50 40 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 95 76 91 75 / 20 20 20 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 89 70 83 75 / 20 50 50 40 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 93 75 90 75 / 20 30 30 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 91 73 86 75 / 20 30 30 40 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 91 75 89 76 / 20 30 30 40 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 90 75 89 76 / 20 30 30 30 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 92 75 90 76 / 20 30 30 30 20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 061056
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
556 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS IN BR THIS MORNING AS
VERY WARM MOIST GULF AIR HAS PUSHED INTO S TX. AN INCREASING SLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH DEW POINTS THIS MORNING BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...CAUSED THE QUICK FORMATION OF THE STRATUS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
DID NOT ALLOW FOR ANY DENSE FOG FORMATION. A FEW LIGHT STREAMER
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE GULF MAINLY EAST OF I35 THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE STRATUS DECK WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND BREAK OR SCATTER
OUT TO VFR MOST AREAS BY 17Z. SCT CU AT 35-45 HND FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TX WILL MOVE TO
THE NRN HILL COUNTRY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TO NEAR A KDRT-25N KSAT-25E KAUS LINE BY 03Z. SCT-NMRS
SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT...SOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWN-BURST WINDS. SELY SFC WINDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...SHIFTING TO NELY 5 TO 15 KNOTS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009/

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY AS MOIST SOUTHEAST
SFC FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE HILL COUNTRY BY MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPC HAS
CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
ROCKSPRINGS TO SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE WITH CONCERNS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

THE WEAKENED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
INVITING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO
ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WILL REMEDY THE UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PEAK ON
FRIDAY AS THE FROPA PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT REACHES THE COAST.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN MID-OCTOBER NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 70 81 75 90 / 40 50 30 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 71 82 74 91 / 40 50 30 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 71 86 74 91 / 40 50 20 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 79 73 84 / 50 60 20 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 77 91 75 93 / 30 40 10 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 79 74 86 / 50 60 30 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 85 77 90 / 30 40 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 83 74 91 / 40 50 20 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 74 84 76 91 / 30 40 30 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 74 85 77 90 / 40 50 20 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 75 87 76 92 / 30 40 20 10 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/01

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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
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000
FXUS64 KEWX 211753
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY THE SHOWERS THAT WERE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA. AFTER BRIEF CLEARING... CU HAS
REFORMED AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE FORMING PARTICULARLY AROUND
AUSTIN. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35. WINDS SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 KTS. CIGS
SHOULD STAY VFR... HOWEVER IF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COMES
THROUGH CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH KDRT AROUND 06Z AND ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z.
PRECIP SHOULD END PRIMARILY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CIGS
SLOWLY RISING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009/

UPDATE...
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PWS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH
RANGE THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM RICK HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR
MAZATLAN. EXTRAPOLATION OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW
HEAVIEST RAINS OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA THURSDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL END
RAIN CHANCES. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY IN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST, REACHING KDRT ARND 04Z AND KAUS/KSAT/KSSF ARND 12Z. ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WILL
PREVAIL. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THE TERMINALS, WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 GUSTING TO 25 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TROPICAL PLUME FROM
TROPICAL STORM RICK WILL ADD INGREDIENT FOR HEAVIER RAINS. RICK
IS EXPECTED TO HIT MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY. THE COMBINED
LOW LEVEL GULF AND MID/UPPER PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM RICK WILL
RESULT IN A DEEP MOIST AND MORE BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE. WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA TODAY. PW (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES WILL BE ON AVERAGE AN
INCH AND A HALF OR GREATER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY SO
SOME MODERATE SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS TONIGHT..THE
TROPICAL PLUME WILL TEND TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AS
DRIER WESTERLY WINDS SWEEP INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LOWER PW`S
THROUGHOUT THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
TOMORROW. THUS.. RICK`S IMPACT TO OUR REGION (IN TERMS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL) MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LINE THE FRONT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER BAJA IN 72 HOURS
(FRIDAY NIGHT) AND WILL MONITOR IN LATER RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY.
NONETHELESS..WILL KEEP DRY WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS REGION SATURDAY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY
(WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT) THUS..SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO OUR AREA
WITH WARMER NIGHTTIME LOWS FORECAST. AM DISCOUNTING UPPER LOW
FORMING FOR NOW ACROSS BAJA THUS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
BE DISCOUNTED AS WELL ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE IF THIS FEATURE IS
CONTINUED ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SO STAY TUNED. WESTERLIES ALOFT
(WITH SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE) WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH WARM DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 75 52 75 52 / 90 40 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 75 46 76 46 / 90 40 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 76 49 79 48 / 80 50 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 72 48 72 50 / 80 30 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 78 53 81 57 / 20 10 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 73 49 73 51 / 90 40 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 77 47 79 50 / 60 30 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 76 48 74 49 / 90 50 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 74 53 73 50 / 90 60 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 76 52 78 51 / 70 40 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 77 52 77 52 / 70 40 10 - -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04/19/09

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