another Blizzard On The Way??
Another Blizzard ?? - Maybe
Monday, 22 February 2010
The long range weather models have been indicating that a major blizzard will develop in about 8 days and hot the East Coast of America.
First of all, you should know that numerical weather models are NOT reliable this far into the future. Things can and will be different than what the image above shows. That said the guidance is a lot better than it was 10 years ago and it is much better than it was in 1993 when the super storm of March 1993 brought all time record snowfalls to Alabama and Georgia.
The early indications are showing some real similarities to that storm. It develops in the Gulf of Mexico and deepens into an intense storm as it moves into the Appalachians. The 93 storm was in mid March. This one, if it develops will be very early in March.
The big question is will the southern jet which has been strong all winter, due to El Nino, will phase with the polar jet. The polar jet has been much further south this year than what we would expect to see. Especially in a winter with a moderately strong El Nino.
I still remember looking at the weather charts the week before the 1993 blizzard. The long range models were surprisingly consistent with that storm. Similar to this one- so far.
Long Range Numerical Weather prediction Model- Forecast for March 3rd.
The image on the left is the 200 millibar chart for early next week. This is a chart showing the winds and storm track at around 9,000 meters high in the atmosphere.
This is the jet stream level and it’s a good chart to look at to see if the jet streams are likely to phase.
This model run is showing that there IS phasing between the southern and northern branch of the jet streams. This would produce a much stronger storm.
The fact that the oceans are unusually warm globally will be another factor. January saw the second warmest oceans on the instrumental record. This is very likely due to the increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Will it happen?
My gut feeling is that we will see a pretty strong storm next week. Whether the jets will phase, and it will track up the east coast is still questionable. So is the possibility of it tracking in the right way to grab enough warm moist air from the Gulf Stream to turn into an historic blizzard.
As we say in TV- Stay Tuned. Oh, and if your local meteorologist seems a bit harried this week, now you know why.
Dan
March big dog storm has been nutered
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Originally Posted by ROLLTIDE
Outdoor Wedding Sat 2-27-10
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