March big dog storm has been nutered

[ROLLTIDE]

BMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
357 PM CST MON MAR 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL WORK TOWARDS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IN THE GREATEST DIVERGENCE AREA OUT AHEAD OF THIS
LOW...SURFACE CYCLOGENENSIS WILL GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE EVOLUTION OF
BOTH LOW CENTERS WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE
SETUP FOR THIS EVENT...WHICH AT THIS POINT I HAVE NO OUTSTANDING
REASON TO DISAGREE. THE DETAILS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL OUTSIDE OF
THE MODELS ABILITY AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE MESOSCALE TO
BE FURTHER ANALYZED. THINKING REMAINS THAT THE WARM TEMPERATURES
LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WILL KEEP A MAJORITY OF FOLKS IN THE
LIQUID CATEGORY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT OR AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
QUESTIONS BEGIN AT THIS POINT AS THE STRENGTH OF THAT LOW ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PHASING WILL PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION ZONE RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS ZONE...IS
REALLY POOLING MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTIONS THAT CREATE A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF. THESE RATES ARE TROUBLING IN THAT THEY
WOULD DEFINITELY COOL THE COLUMN DOWN RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LAST FEW THOUSAND FEET. IN THIS SCENARIO...THE HEAVY RAIN WOULD
QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO A HEAVY SNOW FROM BASICALLY THE BHM METRO
AREA...EAST. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE LASTING THROUGH ABOUT LUNCHTIME. I WILL SAY THAT A
LOT OF THE ENSEMBLES SHARE THIS SAME IDEA AND SETUP...INCLUDING
HIGHER QPF...BUT THAT IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THEY HAVE THE
SAME BACKGROUND PHYSICS PACKAGE.

MOVING ON FROM THE GFS...MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE
NAM...GEM...AND EURO HAVE SOMEWHAT LESS PRONOUNCED QPF AMOUNTS
LEAVING THE DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESS IN LIMBO. THAT WILL REMAIN
THE CRUX OF THE FORECAST FROM HERE ON OUT...CAN THE PRECIP FALL
HEAVY AND FAST ENOUGH TO COOL THIS INCREDIBLY WARM LAST FEW
THOUSAND OR EVEN HUNDRED FEET? AND BY THE WAY...GETTING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S TODAY AND NOW CLOUD COVER INSULATING THE LOWEST
BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT WILL NOT HELP ANYTHING! MY BEST FORECAST
WOULD SAY THAT YES WE WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AT SOME POINT JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE ADVISORY AREA..BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
GETTING THE SNOW TO STICK...ESPECIALLY INTO A WARNING CRITERIA. IN
THE MEANTIME...WE WILL LOOK TO KEEP THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
COUNTIES IN AN ADVISORY SUGGESTING THAT MOST PLACES WILL STAY
UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS RECEIVING THE MOST...AS
THEY DON`T HAVE TO OVERCOME QUITE AS MUCH SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARM AIR.

ULTIMATELY...WHAT HAS MADE THIS FORECAST DIFFICULT HAS BEEN THE
LACK OF COLD AIR OR EVEN COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
TO RELY COMPLETELY ON DYNAMICS OR BRINGING COLD AIR DOWN TO THE
SURFACE FROM ABOVE. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE NEARLY PERFECT FOR
THIS PROCESS TO BE EFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ACCOMPLISH THIS GIVEN THE
WARM AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE. BE PREPARED TO GO UP OR DOWN ON THE
AMOUNTS AND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS THE MESOSCALE DICTATES.

[ROLLTIDE]

Guess I will close this site down since nobody post on it !

[ROLLTIDE]

[Joe-Nathan]

So you guys are going to have snow two years in a row almost to the day.

Lucky.

All we had was a heavy cold rain most of the day with more coming this evening.

But NO SNOW, unlike what the GFS was showing.

(I THINK THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN SMOKING CRACK).

[Windwatcher]

It is so nasty outside I came home early. Hideous weather.

[ROLLTIDE]

Well unless somebody pays for some footage then I doubt that I head north tomorrow. Ya'll seem to forget that I can't go any further south without jumping into the GOM.

[warwoman]

We're under a winter storm warning up here in the NE Georgia mountains,with 2"-4" predicted for tomorrow. Not holding my breath,but if we get it,I will send pics.

[ROLLTIDE]

.....

[warwoman]

"Neutered",huh????

[ROLLTIDE]

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[ROLLTIDE]

People on other sites were calling this storm a blizzard and the storm of the century or the big dog. I am sick and tired of the wishcasting and changed the title of this thread on Thursday when it looked like this historic event had almost no chance of happening cause it was just way to warm. We may still get 2 inches on MT Cheaha in Alabama but it's a huge bust for this state. I also don't understand why people complain about not getting snow at home. If you want it then get off your lazy *** and find some.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

Clemson

http://www.clemson.edu/webcams/watch.html?cam=chouse

[warwoman]

Is this your house,Roll?
We've already gotten the 3"-4" I thought we would,and it looks like there is a lot more coming behind it. If this ain't a 'big dog',it probably qualifies as his 'bitch'!

[ROLLTIDE]

NO that is Mt Cheha the highest point in Alabama and it was where I was going to go this morning but things didn't look very good to me. Sorry TWC :)

[warwoman]

New pics up in the pic section.

[ROLLTIDE]

HUN Totals

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
952 AM CST WED MAR 3 2010...SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE MARCH 2 SNOW EVENT...
A WINTER STORM BROUGHT SNOW TO A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY MARCH 2ND. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WITHIN THE HUNTSVILLE COUNTY WARNING AREA WERE GENERALLY HIGHEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA...WHERE UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
FELL. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES. BELOW IS
A LIST OF SNOWFALL REPORTS RECEIVED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES.
...CULLMAN COUNTY...
WEST POINT 2.5 COOP
...DEKALB COUNTY...
CROSSVILLE 1.0 EMERGENCY MGMT
FORT PAYNE 2.0 PUBLIC
FYFFE 2.5 PUBLIC
GERALDINE 2.5 EMERGENCY MGMT
SYLVANIA 3.0 EMERGENCY MGMT
1 S COLLINSVILLE 5.0 PUBLIC
VALLEY HEAD 5.0 EMERGENCY MGMT
IDER 5.0 EMERGENCY MGMT
MENTONE 5.5 EMERGENCY MGMT
MENTONE 6.0 PUBLIC/MEDIA
...FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE...
COWAN 1.0 TRAINED SPOTTER
ESTILL SPRINGS 1.0 PUBLIC
HUNTLAND 1.3 PUBLIC
WINCHESTER 1.7 COOP
...JACKSON COUNTY...
HOLLYTREE 0.5 COOP
WOODVILLE 0.7 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NE LANGSTON 1.0 COCORAHS
PLEASANT GROVES 4.5 COCORAHS
...LAUDERDALE COUNTY...
ROGERSVILLE 0.7 BROADCAST MEDIA
ANDERSON 2.0 COOP
...LAWRENCE COUNTY...
MOULTON 1.5 EMERGENCY MGMT
...LIMESTONE COUNTY...
EAST ATHENS 1.0 NWS EMPLOYEE
EAST LIMESTONE 2.0 PUBLIC
5 E ATHENS 2.0 COCORAHS
...LINCOLN COUNTY...
FAYETTEVILLE 2.0 COOP
...MADISON COUNTY...
MADISON 1.0 NWS EMPLOYEE
5 SSW HARVEST 1.1 COCORAHS
1 NNE MADISON 1.2 COCORAHS
4 E HARVEST 1.3 PUBLIC
4 ENE HUNTSVILLE 1.5 COCORAHS
3 NE HARVEST 2.0 PUBLIC
4 SE TONEY 2.8 COCORAHS
HSV MOUNTAIN 3.0 PUBLIC
...MARSHALL COUNTY...
GUNTERSVILLE 0.9 COOP
5 WNW ALBERTVILLE 1.5 COCORAHS
UNION GROVE 2.0 EMERGENCY MGMT
2 ENE GUNTERSVILLE 2.0 COCORAHS
2 SW GUNTERSVILLE 2.8 COCORAHS
GRANT 3.0 EMERGENCY MGMT
ALBERTVILLE 3.0 EMERGENCY MGMT
ARAB 3.0 EMERGENCY MGMT
$$