Tornado warning for Jefferson Parish, LA

[dkmac]

!

Severe Weather Statement
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
446 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010

LAC051-075-251000-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-100725T1000Z/
JEFFERSON LA-PLAQUEMINES LA-
446 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES AND CENTRAL JEFFERSON PARISHES...

AT 444 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAFITTE...OR 15
MILES SOUTH OF BELLE CHASSE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BARATARIA AND JEAN LAFITTE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

[dkmac]

Now extended to Plaquemines Parish:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
459 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 530 AM CDT

* AT 458 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MYRTLE
GROVE...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF BELLE CHASSE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

[ROLLTIDE]

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Mesoscale Discussion 1459

< Previous MD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1459 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/ERN LA...SRN/CNTRL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 251057Z - 251300Z THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. RECENT INCREASE IN VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAS OCCURRED WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER OF BONNIE. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INFLUX OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT /UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ HAS SUPPORTED ACTIVITY IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HIGH CAPE AND SIZABLE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS...ABOVE A DEEP SATURATED SURFACE BASED LAYER. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM REMAIN RATHER WEAK /GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT/. UNLESS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OCCURS...TORNADIC POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW ...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE. AS CONVECTION PERSISTS...IT DOES SEEM POSSIBLE THAT THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF A CONSOLIDATED AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL COULD DEVELOP...WHICH COULD IN TURN PROMOTE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...ON NORTHWARD INTO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...BETWEEN NOW AND 15-16Z. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...BUT MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE...WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE...ALONG WITH THE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..KERR.. 07/25/2010

[ROLLTIDE]

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Mesoscale Discussion 1461

< Previous MD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1461 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SWRN AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 251550Z - 251645Z IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER SERN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MS AND SWRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES /2.3-2.6 IN/...A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN THAT THIS LATTER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW...A TORNADO WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH LOW SEVERE WIND AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. AT 1515Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THE REMNANT CENTER OF BONNIE WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LA/MS BORDER...OR APPROXIMATELY 20 N ASD /SLIDELL LA/. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW BANDS OF NNW-SSE ORIENTED CONVECTION/TSTMS ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM FROM SERN MS INTO SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 70S/ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J PER KG/ THUS FAR. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 25-30 KT SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BECOME TOO ORGANIZED. STORM RELATIVE VELOCITY DATA PER REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED WEAK ROTATIONAL COUPLETS ATTENDANT TO EMBEDDED TSTMS IN THE BANDS OVER SERN MS AND SWRN AL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR /SURFACE-1 KM AROUND 10 KT/ WHICH WOULD SUGGEST ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW. ..PETERS.. 07/25/2010 ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30048931 30808976 31319020 31898975 31688863 31608772 30948738 30178721 30048931

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