8/22/10 Deep South Chase Day ?

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Sunday is looking pretty good for chasing in MS ... More later

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STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.

[ROLLTIDE]

Since the cane season is quiet I might chase this event as I am expecting a slight risk to be issued and at least a Severe Tstorm watch

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5%

WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
BETWEEN THE PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AND STALLING NORTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROUGH...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS IMPLY THAT NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED /15-20 KT AT 500 MB/ ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE IN TANDEM WITH A
HIGH PWAT/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. IT IS PROBABLE THAT TSTMS
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR ALONG/SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/VIGOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MEASURE OF
ORGANIZATION/CLUSTERING POSSIBLE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. AS SUCH...SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST PULSE-TYPE UPDRAFTS AND/OR SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATING/SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THROUGH
AROUND SUNSET.

[dkmac]

Welllll...?

[ROLLTIDE]

Well what ?

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Jan

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS AS
STORMS MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

[ROLLTIDE]

Could be something :)

BY TOMORROW MORNING...MODELS SHOW THAT THE FRONT SHOULD GENERALLY BE
NEAR THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. CONDITIONS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD CONVERGE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND LEAD TO SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS FOR GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD ALSO BE WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND STORMS EXIST. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE A
LITTLE BETTER TOMORROW...ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY...AND ABOUT
15KTS OF FLOW...AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW...STORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
GOOD BIT OF DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN BEHIND THE FEATURE TO BRING A RISK
OF DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL WITH ENHANCED DCAPE VALUES. GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL AXIS CONTINUING OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW SHOULD REACH ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 90S AND MAY EVEN
TOUCH 100 DEGREES IN THE DELTA REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER
AND IF THIS WAS TO HAPPEN...THE SVR POTENTIAL COULD BE LIMITED AS
WELL AS WELL IF STORMS LINGER MORE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FEEL THE
AMOUNT OF STORMS TONIGHT WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE...BUT COULD BE AN
EARLY START TO STORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY LOCAL WRF
GUIDANCE.

[ROLLTIDE]

Slight Risk as Expected

Aug 22, 2010 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Updated: Sun Aug 22 12:59:46 UTC 2010 (Print Version)

Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Tornado (more info) Hail (more info) Wind (more info)

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Probability of damging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 221256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...

...SRN AL/MS/LA THIS AFTERNOON...
THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL MS...IN ADVANCE OF A DIFFUSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL MS/AL DURING THE
DAY. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000
J/KG...AS WELL AS LARGE DCAPE OF 1000-1250 J/KG. THIS THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...WITH A WEAK NLY MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME...SHOULD SUPPORT
SEVERAL SWD-SWWD MOVING MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

...CENTRAL/ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX NOW OVER CENTRAL MT WILL EJECT NEWD OVER SK
TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD TO ID/NV THIS
AFTERNOON...AND NEWD TO WY/MT OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN
INITIAL CYCLONE ACROSS NE MT WILL MOVE NEWD TO SRN MB BY THIS
EVENING...AS ANOTHER LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPS NEAR THE SD/MT/ND
BORDER...IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY EJECTING WAVE. A SHALLOW MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS PRESENT THIS MORNING FROM ERN SD INTO CENTRAL ND
BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PRONE TO DEEP VERTICAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOA 100 F...WHILE
AREAS FARTHER E NEAR THE RED RIVER THAT MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED. THE NET RESULT IS MINIMAL
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

INSTEAD...SOMEWHAT HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MT ALONG THE DEEP BAROCLINIC
ZONE...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD NEWD THIS EVENING
FROM NW WY TOWARD ERN MT. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEAK...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH-MOMENTUM
MIDLEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

...NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER WV/CENTRAL PA/WRN NY THIS MORNING WILL EVOLVE
INTO A CLOSED LOW BY EARLY TONIGHT AS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. AN INITIAL SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
MOVE EWD ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER TODAY...WHILE CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT JUST OFF THE NJ/LONG ISLAND COAST AS THE MIDLEVEL
LOW DEEPENS AND DRIFTS SWD/SSEWD OVER CENTRAL PA. THE SURFACE
LOW/MIDLEVEL WAVE ARE PRECEDED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN ACROSS ERN
PA/NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER S/SE...AN INFLUX OF LOW-MID 70S
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE DELMARVA INTO NJ WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...DESPITE LIMITED SURFACE
HEATING AND MEDIOCRE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE SHOULD BE A SMALL
AREA WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS TODAY TO
THE IMMEDIATE E/SE OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE
VERTICAL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS.

..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 08/22/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY

[ROLLTIDE]

update

LOWER MS VALLEY...
WEAK NORTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED PULSE TO MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. HIGH PWAT VALUES AND
MAGNITUDE OF CAPE WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF WET MICROBURSTS IN THE
STRONGEST CORES.

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Live streaming possible today

mms://stream.stormchaselive.com/james.kincaid

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Mesoscale Discussion 1737

< Previous MD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS THROUGH SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 221853Z - 222100Z ISOLATED WET MICRO-BURSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES. STRONG DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BOOSTED MLCAPE TO AROUND 3000 J/KG FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG SUBTLE BOUNDARIES IN WARM SECTOR FROM SERN MS THROUGH SRN AL...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE PULSE AND MULTICELL STORM MODES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED WET MICRO-BURSTS. ..DIAL.. 08/22/2010 ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 32439091 32588872 32878553 32068440 30678521 30408800 30639103 32439091

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[dkmac]

Heavy-duty lightning and rain right now!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
LAC103-105-232145-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0137.100823T2119Z-100823T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
419 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MANDEVILLE...
SOUTHEASTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 415 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MANDEVILLE...AND MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MADISONVILLE

[Windwatcher]

Oh My God! I was caught in that thing! Had to pull over and park in a tree-free parking lot because of the wind bending the pine trees over at wierd angles......I HATE thunderstorms like that!!!! I am glad no one was recording me screaming in my car everytime the lightning crashed!

[ced_pearlandtx]

I was in my truck for the "+65 kts" winds in Sugar land TX, and that wind was rocking the truck. A few small limbs down on the road, but nothing major.

[Joe-Nathan]

I was in my truck for the "+65 kts" winds in Sugar land TX, and that wind was rocking the truck. A few small limbs down on the road, but nothing major.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1010 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0713 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S CENTRAL GARDENS 29.95N 94.02W
08/23/2010 M60.00 MPH JEFFERSON TX ASOS

KBPT ASOS MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 52 KNOTS OR 60 MPH.

0730 PM TSTM WND DMG LABELLE 29.88N 94.16W
08/23/2010 JEFFERSON TX UTILITY COMPANY

ENTERGY REPORTS OVER 1000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER ACROSS
JEFFERSON COUNTY WITH THE MAJORITY IN THE HILLEBRANDT AND
LABELLE COMMUNITIES.

0735 PM FUNNEL CLOUD FANNETT 29.93N 94.25W
08/23/2010 JEFFERSON TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS FUNNEL CLOUD TO THE WEST OF BAYOU DIN GOLF
COURSE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1153 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0601 PM TSTM WND DMG SUGAR LAND 29.62N 95.62W
08/23/2010 FORT BEND TX AMATEUR RADIO

BRANCHES DOWN AT KEY MAP 608D...SOUTHEAST OF THE HIGHWAY
59 AND HIGHWAY 6 INTERSECTION.

0613 PM TSTM WND GST RICHMOND 29.58N 95.76W
08/23/2010 E60.00 MPH FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR

SPOTTER ESTIMATED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

0620 PM TSTM WND GST RICHMOND 29.58N 95.76W
08/23/2010 E65.00 MPH FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED WINDS STRONGER NOW AND STANDING
SHINGLES UP.

0642 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W CHANNELVIEW 29.79N 95.13W
08/23/2010 HARRIS TX AMATEUR RADIO

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN AND LOTS
OF DEBRIS FLYING.

0745 PM TSTM WND DMG NEW ULM 29.89N 96.49W
08/23/2010 AUSTIN TX TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN IN NEW ULM.

0754 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 NE SAN LEON 29.51N 94.91W
08/23/2010 M43.00 MPH GMZ335 TX MESONET

PORTS DATA REPORTED WIND GUST TO 37 KNOTS.

0807 PM TSTM WND DMG COLUMBUS 29.70N 96.55W
08/23/2010 COLORADO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS PUBLIC REPORTS TO SHERIFFS OFFICE OF TREES AND
POWERLINES DOWN IN COLUMBUS.