Tropical Storm EARL Post#1 has all the graphics

[Chris48]

5:00pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 022038
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE EARL MOVING NORTHWARD...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 75.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR BUT A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SOON. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF
EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
IN THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS ON
FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...THE OUTER BANKS AND OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL
AS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT42 KNHC 022039
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS WEAKENED A
LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 947
MB...AND A BLEND OF THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS. EARL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
A COLDER OCEAN. AFTER CROSSING CANADA IN 48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD
BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT IS
ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW...AS ANTICIPATED...THAT EARL
HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING 360 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF EARL...AND THE
CONSISTENCY IN TRACK GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. EARL IS ABOUT TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IT IS READY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 32.5N 75.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 34.8N 74.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 72.7W 85 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 41.7N 69.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 64.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[soflanative]

Thu Sep 2 16:40:02 EDT 2010
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE EARL MOVING NORTHWARD...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 75.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR BUT A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SOON. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF
EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
IN THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS ON
FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...THE OUTER BANKS AND OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL
AS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




[soflanative]

Thu Sep 2 16:40:05 EDT 2010
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS WEAKENED A
LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 947
MB...AND A BLEND OF THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS. EARL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
A COLDER OCEAN. AFTER CROSSING CANADA IN 48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD
BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT IS
ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW...AS ANTICIPATED...THAT EARL
HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING 360 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF EARL...AND THE
CONSISTENCY IN TRACK GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. EARL IS ABOUT TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IT IS READY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 32.5N 75.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 34.8N 74.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 72.7W 85 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 41.7N 69.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 64.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




[Chris48]

5:00 PM EST ADVISTORY MAPS AND IMAGES

[dkmac]

[richardginn]

Still looks good for a New England Direct hit.

[jess]

Earl is starting to lose the gusto. Water vapor imagery is showing degradation of the entire system.

[jess]

Latest from the buoy 150 miles East of Cape Hatteras.

Station 41001
NDBC
Location: 34.675N 72.698W
Conditions as of:
Thu, 2 Sep 2010 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (110°) at 27.2 kt gusting to 33.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 19.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 15 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 82.9 F
Dew Point: 77.5 F
Water Temperature: 81.9 F

It's going to be a rotten night off the coast, and a dangerous time for anyone that stayed on the barrier islands.

[Chris48]

IMAGES FROM 1800Z GFS RUN






IMAGE FROM 1200Z NAM RUN

[Batt2fd]

The Track shifted to the east

[JHat]

The Track shifted to the east

Yeap could shift more. they not going to see much out of this one except high surf and some gusty winds, especially if it keeps falling apart.

[ROLLTIDE]

Where is everybody ?.. I will be back later :)

[BAMAMAMA1964]

Earl is starting to lose the gusto. Water vapor imagery is showing degradation of the entire system.

thats called prayer. my grandbabys are up there.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

OZ is streaming live from NC

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-s...medium=4301091

[ROLLTIDE]

11pm

100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

...CENTER OF EARL PASSING JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS...NEW
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 74.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

Jason Foster streaming live

http://www.chasertv.com/api/static_p...son-foster.php

[ROLLTIDE]

Mark Suddath is live

http://hurricanetrack.com/

[ROLLTIDE]

Gerald S is streaming live

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/strato