Tropical Storm EARL Post#1 has all the graphics

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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2010 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 14:24:24 N Lon : 32:15:40 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -18.6C Cloud Region Temp : -34.6C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.16^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.0T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[mmru4real]

Notice if this follows NHC track it will end up in the BOX

[Smitter]

This does not loog good Track Wise. Alot of eyes on EARL. Especially in the next 5 days from now.

Wow what a difference a few weeks make.

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AL, 07, 2010082600, , BEST, 0, 146N, 328W, 35, 1006, TS

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00Z Runs from the NHC

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11pm

000
WTNT42 KNHC 260241
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF EARL HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CURVED BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. BOTH THE STATISTICAL AND
DYNAMICAL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
SHOW HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THAN BEFORE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY
THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE HIGHER THEREAFTER TO
BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.

SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN INFRARED
IMAGERY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/14. EARL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY 4 AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...
THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND
GFDN SHOWING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. FOR NOW...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CLOSER TO THE USUALLY
RELIABLE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFDL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 14.7N 33.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 35.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 15.5N 39.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 42.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 45.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 17.4N 51.3W 75 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.0N 56.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 31/0000Z 21.5N 60.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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[brentwpb]

This is scary, if you open Andrew 92 and Earl the forecast tract to this minute is almost exact. Andrew was at Long 60.7 Lat 21.7 and Earl will be at long 60.5 Lat 21.5. Watch out it is going to be a bumpy ride and an interesting week or 2

[Pas Bon]

This is scary, if you open Andrew 92 and Earl the forecast tract to this minute is almost exact. Andrew was at Long 60.7 Lat 21.7 and Earl will be at long 60.5 Lat 21.5. Watch out it is going to be a bumpy ride and an interesting week or 2

I personally feel that it is FAR too early to begin making assumptions on a comparison to Andrew at this point. First of all....a LOT of Cape Verde storms get very near this plot. 2nd, I have yet to see one model lately that continues the storm on a westward bearing. There were a few early yesterday afternoon, but not a one at this point.
Will it be a bumpy ride? Sure, but likely only for shipping interests and fish.

[brentwpb]

Oh i understand what you are saying, models change every time it seems. I am just making a plotting observation. Will we get hit here in South Fla by another Andrew this year? I doubt it but it only takes one. Just need to keep in mind preparedness (this is a word isn't it? lol) and be ready. Sorry to disrupt the board

[Pas Bon]

Bermuda may get hammered
By 2 storms within a few days of
Each other. Ouch.

[Glass Girl]

Boringggg just saying fish fish fish

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5AM

000
WTNT42 KNHC 260848
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SPIRAL BANDS
AROUND EARL HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE CYCLONE
STRUCTURE...HOWEVER...IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AXIS. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT..RESPECTIVELY. USING A BLEND OF THE
TWO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE OCEAN IS
WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...THE
LGEM...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS ALL SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND ALSO
BRINGS EARL TO CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY BY DAY 5.

THE CENTER OF EARL HAS BEEN RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING.
A 2315 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED AN ELONGATED CENTER NEAR THE
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. HOWEVER...A SUBSEQUENT
AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS AT 2318 UTC AND A RECENT 0430 UTC TRMM IMAGE
SUGGESTED THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS...MUCH CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS BEST TRACK.
FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND BASED ON THESE DATA...CONTINUITY WILL BE
MAINTAINED AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS BE NEAR THE NORTHERN
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOSE TO THE TRMM FIX. IF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER DOES REFORM FARTHER SOUTH...THE FORECAST TRACK
WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTH...OR TO THE LEFT OF THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AN ESTIMATED 285 DEGREES
AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP TROPICAL
ATLANTIC TRADE WIND FLOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND
THE NAVY GFDN...WHICH ARE BOTH INDICATING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH
DAY 5. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 15.2N 34.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 15.7N 37.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 16.4N 40.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 16.6N 43.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 16.7N 47.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 17.9N 52.3W 80 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 57.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 31/0600Z 22.5N 60.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

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