Reply With Quote
So...Just how many cars are on this train???
Remnant Low GASTON
Time will tell......
Follow my blog - enrique6newshurricanecenter.wordpress.com.
Subscribe to recieve posts via email.
So...Just how many cars are on this train???
It looks like this wave has been named Invest 98 already!
http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/...00000499419036
"Personal foul - #69 - Offense - He was giving him the business" ~ Ron Cherry (referee ) Maryland vs. N. Carolina State ~
Damn. Stay south Gaston, far far south.
Not liking this one, or the one following either. Don' wan' no real life Gaston & Hermine jokes right about now...
5AM
Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS
FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Last edited by dkmac; 08-31-2010 at 05:36 AM.
"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan
"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan
Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardco...0344466?v=wall
NHC
lace your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived OutlooksGIS data: .shp ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 670 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS
FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON FIONA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON FIONA ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT3.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardco...0344466?v=wall
Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardco...0344466?v=wall
Rob Lightbown:
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Tuesday, August 31, 2010 640 am EDT/540 am CDT
Would you like this tropical weather discussion e-mailed to you each day? If so, just send an e-mas-subscribe@yahoogroups.com"]<b>...com</font></b>[/EMAIL] and you will be added to our mailing list.
For Information About Hurricane Earl with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: [COweather.com/?page_id=3008[/COLOR].
For A Plethora Of Tropical Weather Information Including Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: Hurricane Earl:
Earl is a Category 4 hurricane this morning with 135 mph maximum winds and a central pressure of 931 millibars. The hurricane is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 13 mph. Earl is still expected to turn more northwestward starting today and remain on a northwest track into Thursday morning. After Thursday morning, the hurricane is forecast to turn to the north around the western side of a ridge of high pressure and then ultimately turn to the north-northeast and speed up in forward speed by Friday and Saturday ahead of a strong trough of low pressure moving into the northeastern United States.
There is some questions on how far west in Longitude Earl will get before it turns to the north and also there are questions on how sharp of a northeast turn it will make when it gets north of 35 North Latitude. The latest track model guidance package brings Earl very close to the outer banks of North Carolina and also very close to Cape Cod and eastern Maine and the Canadian Maritimes.
It should be noted that the latest HWRF model forecasts a first landfall near Cape Hatteras early Friday and then a track that takes it just southeast of Nantucket and then a second landfall over eastern Maine Friday night into Saturday. This type of forecast track posed by the HWRF model would bring hurricane conditions over the outer banks of North Carolina and tropical storm conditions across eastern North Carolina northward into the Delmarva Peninsula. Up here in New England, hurricane force winds would occur over Cape Cod and the Islands as well in downeast Maine and parts of the Canadian Maritimes with tropical storm force winds across much of eastern New England.
The latest NAM model (06Z) is even further west and it forecasts Earl to come very close to if not go over Cape Hatteras and then brush Virginia Beach before tracking just offshore of the coast of Delaware.
I want to point out that the model guidance as a whole has been consistently too far east in the forecast track of Earl and it is not out of the question that the track guidance could adjust a little further west over the next 24 hours or so.
So, based on the questions regarding the forecast track and the still uncertainty of the ultimate track, I urge all interests from the North Carolina coast northward to New England and the Canadian Maritimes to closely monitor the forecasts regarding Hurricane Earl. For now, I think hurricane conditions are very possible for the outer banks of North Carolina on Friday and then for Cape Cod and the islands as well as downeast Maine and possibly Nova Scotia Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Now for the intensity forecast. Some of the intensity models forecast that Earl could strengthen further today, however, the hurricane is forecast to be in an environment of some southwesterly wind shear and dry air to the north. These factors could put a cap on any further strengthening. With that said, Earl is forecast to remain a hurricane even as it tracks into the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy Friday night.
Tropical Storm Fiona:
Fiona remains a 40 mph tropical storm this morning and is not expected to strengthen very much due to barely favorable environmental conditions. It is not of the question that the large outflow from Earl could ultimately destroy Fiona like what the GFS model has been forecasting all along. Fiona is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 23 mph. A ridge of high pressure to the north of Fiona will keep the storm on a speedy west-northwest track over the next day or so. After that, Fiona is forecast to encounter a weakness in the ridge of high pressure caused by Earl and it should start turning to the northwest and slowing down in forward speed and it is not out of the question that Fiona could stall by late this weekend as it waits for Earl to get out of the way. After that, there are way too many uncertainties on whether Fiona will even survive the next few days, so I don’t want to speculate for next week, especially with the threat Earl currently poses.
Invest 98-L In The Far Eastern Atlantic:
We are also monitoring another tropical disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic which has been labeled Invest 98-L. Environmental conditions are favorable enough for some further development over the next few days and it is not out of the question that this could be upgraded to a tropical depression during this weekend. It should be noted that none of the model guidance forecast development of this system, so I am wondering if the environment may become more hostile later this week. So, I will put the development chances as low for right now.
"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan
From Jeff Masters
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:16 PM GMT on August 31, 2010
...
98L
A new tropical wave (Invest 98L) moved off the coast of Africa yesterday, and is centered a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. Strong easterly winds from the African Monsoon are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of shear, and the disturbance is currently disorganized. A large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 98L, and this will interfere with development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days, and some slow development of 98L is possible as it moves westward at 15 mph. NHC is giving a 10% chance of this system developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, and none of the computer models develop it.
Figure 5. Morning satellite image of 98L.
NHC
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF GRAND TURK...AND ON TROPICAL
STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON FIONA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON FIONA ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT3.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
Last edited by ced_pearlandtx; 08-31-2010 at 02:32 PM. Reason: Removed image, already above
This system has a decent spin going already
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html
"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan
Are you saying that Fiona and Earl took all the goodies they could have had???Originally Posted by stella1952
What's the lowest central pressure ever recorded in a hurricane?
Ability is what you're capable of doing. Motivation determines what you do. Attitude determines how well you do it.Lou Holtz
Wilma in 2005 at 882mb which is nowhere near what 98L is, but it's trying to put on a burst of convection.
This is really the one to watch. I think we might finally see some high pressure across the atlantic after Earl blows thru.
You mean this one, and the gravy train of waves behind this...
Sigh...
Stay out of the GOM! Its closed for hurricane season!
Posting Permissions
Bookmarks