Remnant Low GASTON

[LSU TIGERS]

GFS @ 156h. It's not developing 98 yet but the more important problem is that big area of high pressure covering the entire Atlantic Ocean above the alley. Doesn't bode well for the GOM. We've been lucky so far.

[vampgrrl]

How long until some fronts begin to move down to Louisiana with dry air? I know last year it wasnt until mid to late October but the year before it was in September after Gustav

[LSU TIGERS]

Hmmm. Big shift in the latest CMC run. Five minutes ago it wasn't developing 98. Now we have this at 144h: (Image may be different when you see this. At the time of this post, 98 is almost a cane at 144h.)

[Smitter]

50% Orange now for 98L. It looks like she is our wild card storm that should stay west. We will find out soon enough.

[dkmac]

5AM

Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup

Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWPRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDEISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONSAPPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME ATROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUMCHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[dkmac]

[Windwatcher]

Wilma in 2005 at 882mb which is nowhere near what 98L is, but it's trying to put on a burst of convection.

Thanks---I know 98L isn't a problem (yet) but I just was wondering about that pressure

[HarvestMoon]

8 am

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF SAN SALVADOR...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE
NNNN

[Smitter]

This is the one to watch. Models did not pick her up either. If she stays west. Look out Gulf.

[Joe-Nathan]

How long until some fronts begin to move down to Louisiana with dry air? I know last year it wasnt until mid to late October but the year before it was in September after Gustav

Tomorrow b/c of Earl and then a reenforcing shot this weekend. All be it will only be dry, not that cool (Low upper 60's)

I98 worries me b/c it is further south than the previous three storms, but it has to get away from the Sahara dry air...

[ROLLTIDE]

[Smitter]

Welcome back Roll, I missed where you said you were leaving. It's not the same without you.

[Smitter]

UPGRADED Depression has formed

[ROLLTIDE]

[Smitter]

Amazing Stretch we have had in the last 10 days to 2 weeks. 4 Storms with a few more in africa. This one scares me the most because all the models either did not pick it up or just barely saw it.

[ROLLTIDE]

[wcmi92]

Cape Verde season on steroids right now for sure.

[ROLLTIDE]

11AM

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 35.8W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1720 MI...2770 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[ROLLTIDE]

11AM

000
WTNT44 KNHC 011453
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ALMOST HALF
WAY AROUND THE VORTEX. CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT INITIATING ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1126Z ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
CYCLONE INDICATED WINDS OF 25-30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 30 KT.

THE MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT AS IT IS BEING
STEERED PRIMARILY BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH. AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE CYCLONE AND A SLIGHT
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BY DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS AND THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
CORRESPONDINGLY ACCELERATE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
DISTINGUISHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE PRONOUNCED MONSOON TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS...THE UKMET AND CANADIAN...AND THE GFDL AND
HWRF HURRICANE MODELS AND IS CLOSEST TO THE BAM-MEDIUM MODEL. THE
12Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER TRACK PREDICTION
SINCE THEY WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A MORE REALISTIC HANDLE ON THE
INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE DEPRESSION.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AS USUAL...IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE
DEPRESSION WILL BE TRAVERSING OVER VERY WARM WATERS...THE VERTICAL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY THE MID-LEVEL CONTRIBUTION...IS MODERATE TO
STRONG. ADDITIONALLY...A LARGE OUTBREAK OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
SITUATED JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH MAY INHIBIT
SOME OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST
INTENSITY ONLY CALLS FOR GRADUALLY SPINNING THE CYCLONE UP AND IS
CLOSE TO THE FOUR-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS AND NOGAPS
DO NOT EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE CYCLONE EXISTS NOW OR IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. HOWEVER...A QUICK DECAY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE LIKELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 12.4N 35.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 12.6N 37.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.0N 39.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 13.5N 41.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 14.0N 42.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 15.0N 45.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 16.0N 49.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 17.0N 53.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

[ROLLTIDE]