Remnant Low GASTON

[MiamiHurricane80]

I don't think we will be getting a GOM storm out of this. Most of the models I look at, even if this thing stacks well do not have strong enough ridging to force it southward below the island chains out there. If anything this might be another fish or follow a track similar to that of Earl -At least thats what the early indications are telling me threw day 7.

Look at the 18Z GFS.

[Natronic]

Look at the 18Z GFS.

it's 1 model and it's a long ways out......I'll be more interested in what they say 2 to 3 days from now

[MiamiHurricane80]

11 PM

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 37.7W
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1585 MI...2550 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WTNT44 KNHC 020255
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

GASTON HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION THAT
WRAPS FROM THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION...AND
DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE
OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS CURRENTLY T3.3/51 KT...BUT
A RECENT 0013 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 25-30 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE
ESTIMATES.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN INCREASED A BIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DRY AIR SURROUNDING
THE CYCLONE...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AND THIS
COULD PREVENT THE DRY AIR FROM HAVING A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT.
STILL...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS.
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...THE GFDL AND HWRF ONLY STRENGTHEN GASTON TO
A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL HURRICANE...THE SHIPS MODEL
MAKES IT A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...AND THE LGEM BRINGS IT TO
CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS WHEN ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOST IDEAL AND THEN VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS THEREAFTER WHEN EASTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE A BIT.

THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS BEGUN TO SLOW
DOWN...POSSIBLY DUE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS
NORTHWEST. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/10 KT. WITH THE BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT IS
STILL ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BY DAYS
4 AND 5...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE FASTER TO THE WEST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 13.4N 37.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 38.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 39.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 13.8N 40.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 14.0N 42.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 14.5N 45.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 15.0N 49.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 16.0N 54.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[ilondboy]

Wow ! Well lets look to the east ! Ah there are the beasts! I would just venture to say to the rest of my Western Caribbean Sea, Cayman Islands and there abouts....... you had better get ya tails in gear! because it looks like a triple play headed this way! I dread having to go through another Ivan '04, better prepared but absolutely dread it. and it has plenty of time to ramp up!

[Chris48]

YOU MEAN THIS???

[brentwpb]

First off, Roll i am sorry i started this whole fish not fish debate. Chris that is a lot of models to look at all at once lol.

And now a trivia Question (more like a straight question) does anybody know how many named storms have been out in the Atlantic at once? This one makes 3 and I am sure the forth one is not long behind. so how many at once can actually survive at once?

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

5AM

00
WTNT44 KNHC 020845
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS CONFINED
TO A CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE BEEN WARMING SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK
DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. CONDITIONS GENERALLY APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS GASTON REMAINS IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
WARM WATERS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GASTON IS
PARTIALLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR MASS WHICH COULD
PROVE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...LYING IN
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
STATISTICAL MODEL OUTPUT.

GASTON CONTINUES TO DECELERATE AS IT FEELS THE EFFECTS OF A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
280/8. GASTON IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE STORM REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. BY
48-72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO
THE NORTH OF GASTON AND THAT SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD OR
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 13.5N 38.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 13.6N 39.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 13.8N 40.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 14.0N 41.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 14.2N 42.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 14.6N 45.9W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 15.0N 50.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 16.0N 55.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/KIMBERLAIN

[ROLLTIDE]

[jess]

Water vapor loops show that Gaston is encountering a little shear. Ahead are favorable winds and warmer water.

[dkmac]

Rob Lightbown:

Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Thursday, September 2, 2010 620 am EDT/520 am CDT
Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion

For Information About Tropical Storm Gaston with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go /?page_id=3068[/COLOR][/URL].
I wanted to spend a little bit of time talking about Tropical Storm Gaston. Gaston has remained a steady state 40 mph tropical storm overnight, however, environmental conditions are favorable for intensification over the next 5 to 7 days. The only caveat to that is water vapor satellite loops shows that the storm is somewhat embedded in some dry air which could put a cap on strengthening. For now, I think Gaston will become a hurricane later this weekend.
Gaston is tracking just north of due west at a forward speed of 9 mph and the storm is forecast to slow down even more over the next couple of days as there are weak steering currents around. By late this weekend, high pressure should strengthen to the north of Gaston and cause a slight acceleration in the forward speed. Gaston poses an eventual risk to the Lesser Antilles in about 6 to 7 days from now.

[dkmac]

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[OPHarbor]

Gaston is setting up to me like a classic hurricane alley storm. Hispaniola may knock him down some, but given the SST's in the area, Gaston looks like next storm to cause me to lose sleep.

[ROLLTIDE]

11AM

000
WTNT44 KNHC 021438
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010

METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY AND IS LIMITED TO
A FRAGMENTED BAND OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE PIRATA PREDICTION AND RESEARCH BUOY 13008 LOCATED
ABOUT 80 N MI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN ONLY AVERAGING
AROUND 17 KT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON
THESE DATA...GASTON IS LOWERED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THE RATHER DRY AND STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
DOMINATING THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SHOULD ONLY PERMIT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY ENROUTE ON A PREDICT RESEARCH MISSION TO SAMPLE THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

GASTON IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AROUND 290/6...IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG 38W AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED
SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE WEAK EASTERLY STEERING
FLOW INFLUENCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THROUGH ABOUT 36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH WOULD INFLUENCE GASTON TO MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY QUICKER PACE. THE NHC OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BASED
ON A COMPROMISE OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 14.0N 38.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 14.1N 39.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.3N 40.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.5N 42.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 14.7N 43.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 15.0N 46.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 15.5N 51.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 16.0N 56.0W 85 KT

$$

[Aggiemon96]

http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic?d...ml=1&ql=0&sl=0

[Aggiemon96]

From StormPulse:

[ROLLTIDE]