TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE

[dkmac]

5AM

Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 3 closeup

Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OFCAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TOOCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

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30%

tlantic Graphical TWO Area 2 closeup

Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO 2. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER
WATER. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

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NHC

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS THAT DIPS TO 29N. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
TROUGHING...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 90W
IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ENTERS
THE GULF NEAR 30N86W THEN WESTWARD TO 29N90W OVER SE LOUISIANA
THEN TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. ONE IS ANALYZED FROM 28N86W
TO 24N92W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE OTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 28N93W
23N96W TO 19N95W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE MEXICO COAST S OF 25N AND OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF
92W. WHILE LOWER PRESSURE VALUES EXIST OVER THE SW GULF...GLOBAL
MODELS ARE INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF
90W...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED OVER FLORIDA
STRAITS NEAR 25N81W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SW TO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 78W-85W.

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[dkmac]

[Rgv20]

8pm discussion up to 40%

2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[richardginn]

Even if it did form into a depression it looks to close to Mexico to become a monster.

[jackkip]

I hope is stays like it is. They are predicting rain for South Texas on Mon-Tues. We really need a good downpour. It is starting to get dry

[dkmac]

2AM Now 50%

Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 2 closeup

Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
2. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT ABROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERNGULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLYDISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FORADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS AMEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO10 MPH.

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[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]

[cperez]

This is my neck of the woods, hmm intresting up to 60% might be a lot of rain headed for us in South Texas. NWS has issued a Special statement....

HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EXTENSIVE RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL COMBINE WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO A WEAK TROPICAL LOW OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE
STEADILY MOVING NORTH. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SMALL LOW OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FUTURE STRENGTH AND TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT A STEADY
NORTHWEST MOVEMENT PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST IS ANTICIPATED.

REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE
HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE LOWER VALLEY
AND TRACKS NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER VALLEY LATE TUESDAY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN GENERAL CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLY 4 TO 6 INCHES
LOCALLY AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE GROUND
COULD BECOME SATURATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALSO...WITH
RESERVOIRS IN THE AREA REMAINING FULL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER...AS WELL AS ON
LOCAL ARROYOS AND CREEKS...IS LIKELY AS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
FILLS INTO THESE AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

CASTILLO/SPEECE/BOGORAD

...

[jackkip]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
452 AM CDT SUN SEP 5 2010

TXZ229>234-239>247-052200-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...S AN DIEGO...
ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
452 AM CDT SUN SEP 5 2010

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IN THE GULF IMPACTS SOUTH TEXAS...

MOISTURE FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...AS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS NOT ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...
THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY TRACK AND WHETHER IT WILL BECOME AN ORGANZIED TROPICAL
SYSTEM.

EVEN IF IT REMAINS A NON-ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM AND MOVES INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY...THE COPIOUS MOISTURE AMOUNTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED AVERAGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
AROUND 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY OVER LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WHICH GENERALLY REMAIN ALOFT BUT AT TIMES HAVE BEEN KNOWN
TO BRIEFLY TOUCH DOWN.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONCERNING THIS EVOLVING WEATHER EVENT.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR FURTHER UPDATES. YOU CAN ALSO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON OUR WEBSITE:

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Recon

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SAT 04 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-096

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. PROBABLE 6-HRLY FIXES ON THE REMNANTS OF GASTON
NEAR 16.5N 55.0W AT 06/1200Z.
B. A G-IV FLIGHT FOR 07/0000Z.
C. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 22.5N 96.5W AT 06/1500Z.
3. REMARKS: NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 9 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT
INTO GASTON ABOVE 41,000 FT. DEPARTING 05/1000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

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