TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE

[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]

Jeff Masters 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

[Her-icane]

Rob Lightbown Issued: Sunday, September 5, 2010 905 am EDT/805 am CDT

Southwest Gulf of Mexico Disturbance (Invest 90-L):

Radar and satellite imagery indicates that there is a broad area of low pressure that is located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning. This disturbed weather has been designated Invest 90-L by the National Hurricane Center. Latest analysis indicates that the actual low pressure system is located near 19.5 North Latitude, 95.8 West Longitude. The deep convection is on the northeast side of this system and I suspect that the actual low level center could be tugged northeast away from land towards 21 North, 95 West. Environmental conditions are favorable in this area and vorticity analysis indicates that the low-level spin is increasing with this system. Based on this, I give this system a 80 to 90 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next day or two.
Now for the potential future track of this system, the latest GFS and European model forecast a track that would take it inland into northeast Mexico on Tuesday. The NAM model, on the other hand, looks way too extreme. It forecasts a strong tropical storm or low end Category 1 hurricane making landfall on the Texas coast near Matagorda Bay on Tuesday morning. The NAM model looks way overdone and will be discounted.
So, I’m leaning towards the idea of a landfall in northeast Mexico as a low end tropical storm on Tuesday morning. With that said, all interests in northeast Mexico and south Texas should keep a close eye on this system. At the very least this will be a heavy rainmaker for northern Mexico and south Texas starting later today or tonight continuing through about Tuesday night. Total rainfall amounts during this time period will average between 4 and 6 inches.
I will be monitoring this system closely and will keep you all updated.

[HarvestMoon]

[satx_pilot]

Impressive HarvestMoon!

[HarvestMoon]

Impressive HarvestMoon!

I get lucky sometimes and I am not talking about sex.

[cperez]

TD:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al902010_al102010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009060210
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 10, 2010, DB, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL102010
AL, 10, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 957W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 187N, 956W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 189N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090506, , BEST, 0, 191N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 195N, 957W, 25, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090518, , BEST, 0, 199N, 957W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 954W, 25, 1003, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 150, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

We have Tropical Depression 10!!!

[cperez]

Updated 00z Best Track

AL, 10, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 951W, 25, 1003, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[jackkip]

looks like it is going to be wet for labor day in South Texas.....So much for the swim party....Darn....

[ROLLTIDE]

10pm

000
WTNT45 KNHC 060251
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO WARRANT IT BEING
DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. CURVED BANDS ARE
READILY APPARENT ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR SITE...AND A 2340 UTC
WINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT CURVED BAND SIGNATURE. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE BOTH T1.5...25 KT...AND THIS WILL
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT
WIND SHEAR. ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF SHOW STRENGTHENING
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE
ITS FORWARD SPEED AS MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE
LEFT TURN OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS MODEL.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 20.7N 95.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 21.6N 95.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/0000Z 26.4N 99.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

[HarvestMoon]

...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 060248
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 95.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES...
BASED ON REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42055.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[TexasRiverRat]

4AM

WTNT35 KNHC 060902
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

CORRECTED NAME OF CYCLONE IN RAINFALL SECTION

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 95.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY.

[dkmac]

[jj20030]

blowing up http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Sa...x?animate=true

[dkmac]

[dkmac]

The WunderMap at WU has two models projecting a NE track into the Northern Gulf.

http://www.wunderground.com/wunderma...re=0&ft=0&sl=0

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]