Good morning!
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE:
The 8th Tropical Storm of the season develops in the SW GOMEX.
Just a little history on this. Disturbed weather that was located over a portion of Mexico for 2-3 days, energy which had broken away from Pacific system TD11-E, had moved northward, and began interacting with a surface trof of low pressure that had stalled in the BOC. A combination of very warm SST's and rapidly improving upper level winds, led to a Tropical Depression, which has quickly evolved into Tropical Storm Hermine. As of the 8:00 a.m. Intermediate Advisory from the NHC in Miami, the following information was posted on Hermine (Pornounced Her-MEEN):
7:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 6
Location: 22.4°N 95.3°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
The intermediate advisory contained the following watches and warnings:
000
WTNT35 KNHC 061140
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
700 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 95.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE
WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
Some helpful links:
Hurricane Local Statements for HERMINE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACTS - DECISION SUPPORT
Recent satellite loop imagery indicates that Hermine continues to become better organized, at a very steady rate. Banding features are now becoming evident, as well as a better developed CDO which is becoming more symmetric.
Satellite loop imagery would also tend to indicate that the COC is still moving a little more north than the 350 degree heading given in the advisory. This is supported in that the center appears to be currently just slightly to the east of the forecast point at the moment.
HERMINE SATELLITE LOOP
Given this, I look for the forecast track to shift slightly to the right, and possibly bringing landfall close to, if not, on the TX/MX border. My furthest point north at the moment would be Brownsville.
Given the satellite loop imagery, and the possibility of being over water just slightly longer, I look for further strengthening in line with the NHC forecast, however possibly a little stronger than indicated.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 21.6N 95.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 22.9N 95.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 24.9N 97.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 26.8N 98.4W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.8N 99.7W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 09/0600Z 33.2N 99.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
My reasoning: If she stays over the water even a little longer than forecast, it doesn't have to be much, the forecast shear map calls for a pretty conducive upper wind pattern for at least the next 12-14 hours, with an established upper level anticyclone. Not saying this is exactly the same, however, this setup brings to mind of this forecaster, the pattern reversal encountered with Humberto, with the favorable exception being (as far as development) is that Humberto was a weakening, almost dead system.
We have a very organized, warm core here, with the same upper level wind pattern.
Based on this, I CANNOT rule out Hermine reaching CATEGORY ONE Hurricane status prior to landfall, which may be close to Brownsville, TX...again, not saying landfall is imminent there, but mentioning as a cautionary measure.
I would not be surprised that if they extend the watch area, that portions of the Tropical Storm warning area fall under a Hurricane Watch later this morning.
Residents along the Mexican coast (prayers are with you), and the Brownsville area should monitor the progress of Hermine during the next 12-24 hours.
Regardless of whether she makes landfall as a tropical storm or hurricane, rain, flooding, beach erosion, and mudslides WILL be a threat.
I will continue to monitor Hermine throughout the day, and will update if needed.
Elsewhere, a tropical wave lies just to SSE of the Cape Verde Islands, and will be monitored for development over the next 96 hours.
The African wave train remains active, and any waves that exit into the Atlantic WILL have to be monitored, as the shear forecast map, for the 4th day in a row, indicates a series of upper level anticyclones to develop as waves enter the Atlantic.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.
..... Do, or do not. There is no 'try.' .....
Originally Posted by ROLLTIDE
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