HURRICANE IGOR

[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]

Royal Gazette

Hurricane Igor heads north
No major injuries or death reported


RuthO'Kelly-Lynch and Tim Smith




Hurricane Igor is moving away from Bermuda after pounding the Island with winds as high as 93 miles per hour.

At 7 a.m. on Monday, September 20, Bermuda Police Service spokesman Dwayne Caines said no major injuries, or deaths, have been reported as a result of the Category 1 storm that started showing its presence on the Island on Saturday.

We will continue to Follow It Live throughout the day, join our 9,000 readers at this link
http://www.royalgazette.com/rg/section.jsp?sectionId=3

At 6 a.m. the Bermuda Weather Service reported: Hurricane Igor is moving away to the north-northeast; however, strong tropical storm force winds continue early this morning. Winds ease below tropical storm force late this afternoon. Significant storm surge continues in some areas early this morning but will ease through the day. High pressure builds into the area tonight through midweek, allowing for mainly fine conditions.

This morning, Mr Caines who has been keeping Bermuda updated at the Emergency Broadcast Radio Station this weekend.

He said: There has been property damage all around the Island and lots of trees and debris in roads. At first light we will get an assessment.

We would like to stress for persons to please stay off the roads so first responders can carry out their jobs quickly and efficiently.

St. George’s in particular has been hit heavily according to residents on Follow It Live.
Belco reported that approximately 28,700 customers were out of power as of out 5.30 a.m.

Earlier this morning this newspaper reported the storm passed 41 nautical miles to the west of the Island at around midnight, which appeared to be its closest point of impact.
Because it didn't go directly over Bermuda, the Island caught some of the more fierce winds at the edge of Igor, according to a British Airways first officer who spoke to The Royal Gazette this morning.

Graeme Clark, who has been monitoring the weather throughout the evening, was part of the crew that flew the last plane into Bermuda on Saturday, September 18, 2010.
The crew is staying at the Fairmont Hamilton and will be on the first British Airways flight out of Bermuda.

Mr. Clark said Bermuda has seen some of the worst winds of Hurricane Igor.
"We were expecting a lull when the eye passed, but we haven't seen that," he said.
When asked if Bermuda saw weaker winds because the eye did not pass straight over the Island he said: I think this is as bad as it would have got because the highest wind speed is around the eye so we are actually in the full force of it without the lull. But we should still see the wind head in the other direction shortly when the storm passes.
That will be interesting because all the trees bending one way will now be pushed the other way.

Bermuda Weather Service said gusts hit 81 knots (93 mph) at 11.22 p.m. at L.F. Wade International Airport. By 11.55 p.m., gusts were down to 73 knots (84 mph), with sustained winds at 57 knots (66 mph).

In their 12 a.m. update, weathermen said Igor's sustained winds remained 65 knots (75 mph), with gusts of 85 knots (98 mph). At that stage, it was heading north at a speed of 12 knots (14mph).

The Royal Gazette website will have stories throughout the day from across the Island as well as live discussions on Follow It Live.

[Her-icane]

Clean-up in progress

Image credit: Bernews

[ROLLTIDE]

JM

Igor spares Bermuda; Fanapi hits China; exceptionally quiet in the Pacific

Updated: 1:30 PM GMT on September 20, 2010


3998Share

The core of Category 1 Hurricane Igor passed approximately 40 miles west of Bermuda at 11 pm AST last night, bringing winds just below hurricane force to the island. Winds at the Bermuda Airport peaked at 68 mph, gusting to 93 mph, at 11:22 pm AST last night. Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph began at 10 am AST on Sunday, and were still present as of 9:38 am AST (44 mph, gusting to 53 mph.) Bermuda radar shows that the core of Igor is now well past Bermuda, with only a few spiral bands to the south that will bring occasional rain squalls to the island this morning. Pressures are rising rapidly, and the storm is almost over for Bermuda. No injuries or major damage has been reported from Bermuda thus far, though Igor's waves are being blamed for two deaths in the Caribbean, one on Puerto Rico and one on St. Croix.

Igor is headed northeastward, out to sea, but will pass close enough to southeast Newfoundland to bring tropical storm force winds there on Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns.


Figure 1. The eye of Hurricane Igor as seen by the International Space Station at 9:56 am EDT September 14, 2010. At the time, Igor was a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. This image ranks as one of the top-five most spectacular hurricane images ever taken from space, in my mind. To see the full-size image, visit the NASA Earth Observatory web site.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a well-defined surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and downdrafts created by mid-level dry air getting ingested into the storm are creating surface arc clouds on the west side of the storm, as seen in recent visible satellite loops. 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it, and the amount of thunderstorm activity will have to increase in order for this system to be considered a tropical depression. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and most of the major forecast models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 4 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 80% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi hits China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong this morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Fanapi was the strongest typhoon so far this season, peaking at Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds shortly before weakening to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds when it hit northern Taiwan early Sunday morning, local time. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

A remarkably quiet Western Pacific typhoon season and Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. Before Fanapi, the strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. According to statistics forwarded to me by NOAA meteorologist Paul Stanko on Guam, by this point in an ordinary typhoon season, we should have had 17 named storms, 11 typhoons, and 2 super supertyphoons (winds of 150+ mph.) This year, we've had just 11 named storms, 5 typhoons, and no supertyphoons. The record low for a typhoon season was 18 named storms (set in 1998), 9 typhoons (set in 1998), and no supertyphoons (set in 1974.) We have a chance of beating all of these records this year. The peak date for the Western Pacific typhoon season is August 28, so we are well past the peak.

It's a similar story out in the Eastern Pacific, where a near-record quiet hurricane season is occurring. So far there have been 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Ordinarily, we should have had 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricane by this point in the season. Since reliable satellite records of Eastern Pacific hurricane activity began in 1970, the quietest season on record was 1977, when just 8 named storms occurred. The fewest hurricanes occurred in 2007 (four), and there have been two years with no intense hurricanes. The peak of Eastern Pacific hurricane season is around August 25, and on average we can expect just 3 more named storms this year. Thus, we could set records for the fewest named storms and hurricanes this year.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in China at 5:15 UTC on September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS, ECMWF, and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

[ROLLTIDE]

Tropical Storm Igor ?

[ROLLTIDE]

11AM

11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20
Location: 36.1°N 63.3°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NNE at 24 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb

[Joe-Nathan]

Here are some more from the NASA ISS:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Nat...t.php?id=45771


Sept 13th:


Sept. 16th:

[dkmac]

5PM

HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST MON SEP 20 2010

...IGOR BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 61.5W
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD
TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
CANADA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IGOR WILL MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND
ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND IGOR IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 380
MILES...610 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE SOUTH-FACING COASTLINES OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST MON SEP 20 2010

IGOR APPEARS TO BE STARTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
NEWFOUNDLAND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE HURRICANE...AND COLD ADVECTION
IS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF ITS CIRCULATION. GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT IGOR SHOULD BE FULLY INCORPORATED INTO
THE FRONTAL ZONE BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. ASCAT DATA FROM
EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS...
BETWEEN 55-64 KT...OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM AND
SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS OCCURRING. IGOR COULD BE REINVIGORATED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...AND THE NHC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY 120 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/24. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS STILL
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN SHOWS INCREASING
SPREAD AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT THAT IGOR WILL
TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD GREENLAND AFTER 24
HOURS...BUT THERE IS NOT AS MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE FORWARD SPEED.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN...AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER.

EVEN THOUGH IGOR IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL AS IT PASSES
NEWFOUNDLAND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BEFORE THE TRANSITION IS COMPLETE. THEREFORE...
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THAT PROVINCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 38.2N 61.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 41.0N 57.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 45.3N 52.3W 75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 22/0600Z 50.1N 47.5W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 22/1800Z 54.6N 45.8W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 23/1800Z 60.0N 46.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 24/1800Z 66.0N 56.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[ROLLTIDE]

5AM

00
WTNT41 KNHC 210855
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST TUE SEP 21 2010

IGOR CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
BECOMES MORE INVOLVED WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...A SMALL
AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE
CYCLONE HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE CENTER. THUS...IGOR IS AGAIN MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY TO BE COMPLETE LATER
TODAY...WITH SOME BAROCLINICALLY-INDUCED STRENGTHENING EXPECTED.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MERGING WITH
ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER HIGH LATITUDES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/36. IGOR...OR THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME...IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED AROUND A LARGE
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR...THEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH
THEREAFTER DURING THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT 72-96 HR.

EVEN THOUGH IGOR IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL AS IT PASSES
NEWFOUNDLAND...TROPICAL-STORM AND POSSIBLY HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
COULD REACH THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BEFORE THE TRANSITION IS
COMPLETE. ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND
EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THAT
PROVINCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 42.8N 55.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 46.7N 51.3W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 22/0600Z 52.3N 48.4W 75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 22/1800Z 56.7N 48.3W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 23/0600Z 60.5N 52.5W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 24/0600Z 62.5N 59.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 25/0600Z 64.0N 61.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[dkmac]

Rob Lightbown:

Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Tuesday, September 21, 2010 605 am EDT/505 am CDT
Hurricane Igor:

Even though Igor is still a hurricane this morning, it is slowly losing tropical characteristics. Currently, an area of convection has formed on the north side of the hurricane and no significant frontal boundaries were associated with the storm; so Igor remains tropical in nature. With that said, I anticipate that Igor will become Extratropical within the next 12 to 24 hours.
Igor is tracking northeast at a forward speed of 41 mph. This storm is forecast to be steered around a large mid-level low pressure system located over eastern Canada over the next few days. Even though Igor is forecast to be extratropical as it passes Newfoundland later today, tropical storm to hurricane conditions are expected across eastern Newfoundland this afternoon into this evening. Based on this, Environment Canada has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for much of eastern Newfoundland, including St. Johns.

[ROLLTIDE]

JM

Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

[SevereWxEnthusiast]

crazy bam models, what is the possibility of that actually happening?

Anything is possible, but I've noticed the Bamms being a little out to lunch this season.

[ROLLTIDE]

21/0545 UTC 40.9N 56.6W EXTRATROPICAL IGOR

[ROLLTIDE]

Up to 80mph now but it's really not tropical

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]